首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 领导力 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

美国楼市终于开始降温,但房价未必

Lance Lambert
2021-08-18

房屋库存量增多和市场降温,并不意味着房价会下跌。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

2021年的美国房地产市场,一方面是购房人的竞购潮,另一方面则是待售房产不足,成了许多潜在购房人的噩梦。

但火爆的房地产市场终于开始小幅降温。realtor.com网站在上周公布的数据显示,7月,美国待售房产数量增加10%。自待售房产数量从今年春季走出低谷以来,总涨幅达到23%。

房屋库存量增多对购房人而言是好消息。面对美国历史上竞争最激烈、最紧张的房地产市场之一,购房人不得不相互竞价。事实上,在新冠疫情爆发后的前12个月,待售房屋库存减少了超过50%。今年春季和夏季的房屋库存水平处在40多年来的最低水平。

但房屋库存量增多和市场降温,并不意味着房价会下跌。业内人士预测2008年的房市崩溃不会再次发生;相反他们认为市场会恢复正常。据房地产调研公司CoreLogic统计,去年,美国房价暴涨17.2%,令人瞠目结舌。该公司预测未来12个月,房价将相对小幅上涨3.2%。

约翰•伯恩斯房地产咨询公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的副研究主管德韦恩•巴赫曼告诉《财富》杂志:“房价上涨就像开车。我们以前的行驶速度是120英里/小时,现在降到100英里/小时,而正常的速度是75英里/小时。我们需要房产库存水平保持稳定。这将稳定定价环境。我认为我们正在朝着这个方向发展。”

到底发生了什么?

对新手来说,房地产市场恢复了季节性变化。除了去年以外,每年这个时候,度假和返校等活动都会转移购房人的注意力,房地产市场随之有所降温。

Home. LLC的首席执行官尼克•沙告诉《财富》杂志:“2020年,房地产市场没有出现季节性变化。但我们的研究预测,2021年,房产库存会恢复季节性变化,开始降温……待售房产库存将增加,但距离恢复到正常库存水平仍有很长的路要走。”与CoreLogic的观点类似,他的预测表明,未来几个月房价上涨速度会有所放缓,但依旧会维持上涨的趋势。

然而,这并非都是由于季节性原因。巴赫曼表示,购房人开始反感过高的房价,因此市场才开始降温。当然,这是不可避免的:房价上涨速度永远不能超过收入增长的速度。

巴赫曼说:“去年房价疯涨,但这是不可持续的……如果房价涨幅过高,人们会停止购买,他们会这样想:‘我得观望一段时间,等到市场降温。’”

房屋库存增多不止受到购房人的欢迎。许多卖房人也将从中受益。美国待售房产数量不足导致许多潜在卖房人放弃将房产挂牌出售。毕竟,如果把房子卖掉,他们就很难在库存紧张的市场中找到其他房产。随着库存量反弹,潜在卖房人最终可能会出售现有的房产。这将进一步增加房屋库存量。

尽管最近待售房屋数量增加,但库存水平与新冠疫情之前相比依旧减少了42%。库存紧张的房地产市场不可能在一夜之间恢复正常。至少在史上最低的住房抵押贷款利率和大批千禧一代开始购房这一趋势的推动下,房地产市场会继续上涨。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

2021年的美国房地产市场,一方面是购房人的竞购潮,另一方面则是待售房产不足,成了许多潜在购房人的噩梦。

但火爆的房地产市场终于开始小幅降温。realtor.com网站在上周公布的数据显示,7月,美国待售房产数量增加10%。自待售房产数量从今年春季走出低谷以来,总涨幅达到23%。

房屋库存量增多对购房人而言是好消息。面对美国历史上竞争最激烈、最紧张的房地产市场之一,购房人不得不相互竞价。事实上,在新冠疫情爆发后的前12个月,待售房屋库存减少了超过50%。今年春季和夏季的房屋库存水平处在40多年来的最低水平。

但房屋库存量增多和市场降温,并不意味着房价会下跌。业内人士预测2008年的房市崩溃不会再次发生;相反他们认为市场会恢复正常。据房地产调研公司CoreLogic统计,去年,美国房价暴涨17.2%,令人瞠目结舌。该公司预测未来12个月,房价将相对小幅上涨3.2%。

约翰•伯恩斯房地产咨询公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的副研究主管德韦恩•巴赫曼告诉《财富》杂志:“房价上涨就像开车。我们以前的行驶速度是120英里/小时,现在降到100英里/小时,而正常的速度是75英里/小时。我们需要房产库存水平保持稳定。这将稳定定价环境。我认为我们正在朝着这个方向发展。”

到底发生了什么?

对新手来说,房地产市场恢复了季节性变化。除了去年以外,每年这个时候,度假和返校等活动都会转移购房人的注意力,房地产市场随之有所降温。

Home. LLC的首席执行官尼克•沙告诉《财富》杂志:“2020年,房地产市场没有出现季节性变化。但我们的研究预测,2021年,房产库存会恢复季节性变化,开始降温……待售房产库存将增加,但距离恢复到正常库存水平仍有很长的路要走。”与CoreLogic的观点类似,他的预测表明,未来几个月房价上涨速度会有所放缓,但依旧会维持上涨的趋势。

然而,这并非都是由于季节性原因。巴赫曼表示,购房人开始反感过高的房价,因此市场才开始降温。当然,这是不可避免的:房价上涨速度永远不能超过收入增长的速度。

巴赫曼说:“去年房价疯涨,但这是不可持续的……如果房价涨幅过高,人们会停止购买,他们会这样想:‘我得观望一段时间,等到市场降温。’”

房屋库存增多不止受到购房人的欢迎。许多卖房人也将从中受益。美国待售房产数量不足导致许多潜在卖房人放弃将房产挂牌出售。毕竟,如果把房子卖掉,他们就很难在库存紧张的市场中找到其他房产。随着库存量反弹,潜在卖房人最终可能会出售现有的房产。这将进一步增加房屋库存量。

尽管最近待售房屋数量增加,但库存水平与新冠疫情之前相比依旧减少了42%。库存紧张的房地产市场不可能在一夜之间恢复正常。至少在史上最低的住房抵押贷款利率和大批千禧一代开始购房这一趋势的推动下,房地产市场会继续上涨。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Between the bidding wars and lack of homes for sale, the 2021 housing market has been nothing short of a nightmare for many would-be buyers.

But the red-hot market is finally starting to cool down a bit. The number of homes for sale in the country rose 10% in July, according to data released last week by realtor.com. In all, the figure is up 23% since bottoming out this spring.

Increasing levels of inventory is a good sign for buyers who've been pitted against one another in one of the most competitive—and tight—housing markets in the nation's history. Indeed, during the first 12 months of the pandemic, inventory for sale fell by more than 50%. Inventory levels this spring and summer were at their lowest in more than 40 years.

But rising inventory and a cooling market don’t mean home shoppers should expect prices to fall. Industry insiders don't foresee a 2008-style housing crash; instead, they see a market returning to normal. Over the past year, home prices soared a mind-boggling 17.2%, according to real estate research firm CoreLogic. That company forecasts a more modest 3.2% appreciation in the next 12-month window.

"We were going 120 mph; now we're going 100 mph. A normal year is 75 mph," Devyn Bachman, vice of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told Fortune. "We need inventory levels to stabilize. That will stabilize the pricing environment as well. And I think we're heading in that direction."

What’s going on?

For starters, seasonality is coming back to the market. Around this time every year—with the exception of last year—housing cools a bit as shoppers get distracted by vacations and the restart of school.

"After skipping seasonal trends in 2020, our research projects that housing inventory will follow seasonal patterns in 2021, and begin cooling down…Housing inventory for sale will trend upward, but we are still a long way off from normal inventory levels," Nik Shah, CEO of Home.LLC, told Fortune. Similar to CoreLogic, his forecast shows home appreciation decelerating in the coming months but still moving upward.

This isn't all driven by seasonality, however. Bachman said the market is cooling as homebuyers start to push back at sky-high home prices. Of course, this was always inevitable: Prices can't outpace income growth forever.

“You’ve had crazy-strong home price appreciation over the last year, that is unsustainable…When you have that much appreciation, people pause and say, ‘I need to step back and let things cool down,’” Bachman said.

This uptick in housing inventory is welcomed by more than just home shoppers. Many sellers will benefit too. The lack of homes for sale in the U.S. has persuaded some would-be home sellers to not put their home up for sale. After all, if they sold, the tight market would make it hard for them to find something else. As inventory levels begin to go back up, these potential sellers might finally make the plunge. And that would help to further increase inventory levels.

Even with the recent uptick in homes for sale, inventory levels are still down 42% from pre-pandemic levels. That tight market won't go back to normal overnight. Not when historically low mortgage rates and a wave of millennials looking to buy are still driving the market forward.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开