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逃跑总统是否该为阿富汗当前局面负责?

加尼的迅速倒台反映出美国对阿富汗政策的全面失败。

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如果说世界上有人应该知道如何解决阿富汗问题,这个人就是阿什拉夫•加尼。

加尼在2014年成为阿富汗的总统之前,人生的大部分时间都在研究如何促进贫穷国家的发展。他是一名富布赖特学者(Fulbright Scholar),在哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)获得了博士学位,在世界银行(World Bank)和联合国(United Nations)任职之前,曾经在美国的一些精英学术机构任教。后来,他与人合写了《修复失败国家:一个重建破碎世界的框架》(Fixing Failed States: A Framework for reconstruction A Fractured World)。

8月15日,加尼逃离阿富汗,目前不知藏身何处。关于他的下落,各种各样的报道都有,从塔吉克斯坦到阿曼再到阿布扎比,而俄罗斯人声称他离开时带着四辆汽车和一架装满现金的直升机。在阿富汗,他已经臭掉了:他的中央银行行长和他的政府主要成员纷纷公开谴责他。人们联系不到他和他的亲信。

从很多角度来看,加尼的迅速倒台反映出美国给阿富汗强加一个政府的做法大范围失败了。这个政府的背后是一群相互争权夺利的权力经纪人,不过这些经纪人一直在战场上而不是竞选中打斗。尽管加尼是普什图(阿富汗的主要民族)人,但他被视为一个局外人,他缺乏团结不同派系的政治触觉,而且随着时间的推移,越来越被孤立。

“加尼没有适应阿富汗的实际情况。”《伊斯兰国的危险:世界上最可怕的恐怖组织及其在南亚的阴影》(The ISIS Peril: the World 's Most fear Group and its Shadow on South Asia)的作者、位于新德里的观察者研究基金会(Observer Research Foundation)研究员卡比尔•塔内贾说,“他要么是不理解,要么是无法理解那些军阀,其实他们代表的是民族分歧。”

2001年美国入侵阿富汗后,加尼超过25年来首次返回阿富汗,在哈米德•卡尔扎伊领导的政府中担任了两年财政部部长。后来,加尼变成了国际援助界的宠儿,他在Ted发表演讲,在知名报纸上撰写专栏文章,在大会上发言。他一度被认为是联合国秘书长候选人。

2009年竞选总统失败后,加尼与阿富汗几位著名政治人物——包括军阀出身的国内重量级人物、副总统阿卜杜尔•拉希德•杜斯塔姆——联手,最终在五年后赢得了这个最高职位。但他的胜利从一开始就遭到了破坏:时任美国最高外交官约翰•克里飞往喀布尔,促成了一个联合政府,让加尼的主要对手担任“首席执行官”——这个头衔在阿富汗的美式宪法中根本不存在。

2017年,加尼在接受英国广播公司(BBC)采访时表示,他的工作是“地球上最糟糕的工作”。尽管如此,他称阿富汗安全部队在对付塔利班的斗争中已经取得了突破,联军部队将能够在2021年前撤离。

撤离的日期没错,只是和他预测的方式不一样。美国在前任总统唐纳德•特朗普的任内开始和塔利班进行直接对话,试图结束这场美国历史上耗时最长的战争,而加尼被排除在谈判之外。今年,现任美国总统乔•拜登将撤军最后期限设定为8月31日,之后塔利班不断在军事上取得胜利,加尼却拒绝让位,不肯回应让过渡政府掌权的呼吁。

“加尼假装支持和平,但实际上他支持战争,以便继续掌权,即使这样做会让民众丧命,会使塔利班重新选择武力。”前阿富汗驻欧洲大使、大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)成员奥玛•萨马德称,“拖延战术毁掉了达成协议的机会,协议会让他下台,但却能为全面过渡奠定基础。”

“我不会逃跑!”

8月14日塔利班进入喀布尔时,加尼告诉民众,他不会重蹈前国王阿曼努拉•汗的覆辙——1929年,阿曼努拉•汗退位,逃到英属印度。

“我不会逃跑!”8月4日,加尼在喀布尔的一次活动上大声表态,“我不会寻求避风港,我要为人民服务。”

然而,当塔利班在全国范围内发动闪电进攻,并向喀布尔挺进时,加尼似乎越来越与世隔绝。在他逃离前几个小时发布的一段视频中,加尼呼吁阿富汗国防部为市民设立电话求助热线。

“叛国”

逃跑后,加尼在Facebook上发帖称他离开阿富汗是为了避免流血,这一举动激怒了他的内阁。

“他们把我们的手绑在背后,出卖了国家。”加尼逃离后,阿富汗代理国防部部长比斯米拉•穆罕默迪在推特(Twitter)上说。“加尼和他的团队真是混蛋。”

由于加尼下落不明,前总统卡尔扎伊和其他阿富汗政界人士一道,正在牵头与塔利班的多哈谈判,商讨组建新政府。倒是有一件事情他们很容易能够达成一致:对加尼的鄙夷。

“阿什拉夫•加尼背叛了自己的祖国、团队和部落。”塔利班的媒体团队成员阿卜杜勒•哈克•哈马德向阿富汗的Tolo News表示,“这种叛国行为将永远被铭记。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

如果说世界上有人应该知道如何解决阿富汗问题,这个人就是阿什拉夫•加尼。

加尼在2014年成为阿富汗的总统之前,人生的大部分时间都在研究如何促进贫穷国家的发展。他是一名富布赖特学者(Fulbright Scholar),在哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)获得了博士学位,在世界银行(World Bank)和联合国(United Nations)任职之前,曾经在美国的一些精英学术机构任教。后来,他与人合写了《修复失败国家:一个重建破碎世界的框架》(Fixing Failed States: A Framework for reconstruction A Fractured World)。

8月15日,加尼逃离阿富汗,目前不知藏身何处。关于他的下落,各种各样的报道都有,从塔吉克斯坦到阿曼再到阿布扎比,而俄罗斯人声称他离开时带着四辆汽车和一架装满现金的直升机。在阿富汗,他已经臭掉了:他的中央银行行长和他的政府主要成员纷纷公开谴责他。人们联系不到他和他的亲信。

从很多角度来看,加尼的迅速倒台反映出美国给阿富汗强加一个政府的做法大范围失败了。这个政府的背后是一群相互争权夺利的权力经纪人,不过这些经纪人一直在战场上而不是竞选中打斗。尽管加尼是普什图(阿富汗的主要民族)人,但他被视为一个局外人,他缺乏团结不同派系的政治触觉,而且随着时间的推移,越来越被孤立。

“加尼没有适应阿富汗的实际情况。”《伊斯兰国的危险:世界上最可怕的恐怖组织及其在南亚的阴影》(The ISIS Peril: the World 's Most fear Group and its Shadow on South Asia)的作者、位于新德里的观察者研究基金会(Observer Research Foundation)研究员卡比尔•塔内贾说,“他要么是不理解,要么是无法理解那些军阀,其实他们代表的是民族分歧。”

2001年美国入侵阿富汗后,加尼超过25年来首次返回阿富汗,在哈米德•卡尔扎伊领导的政府中担任了两年财政部部长。后来,加尼变成了国际援助界的宠儿,他在Ted发表演讲,在知名报纸上撰写专栏文章,在大会上发言。他一度被认为是联合国秘书长候选人。

2009年竞选总统失败后,加尼与阿富汗几位著名政治人物——包括军阀出身的国内重量级人物、副总统阿卜杜尔•拉希德•杜斯塔姆——联手,最终在五年后赢得了这个最高职位。但他的胜利从一开始就遭到了破坏:时任美国最高外交官约翰•克里飞往喀布尔,促成了一个联合政府,让加尼的主要对手担任“首席执行官”——这个头衔在阿富汗的美式宪法中根本不存在。

2017年,加尼在接受英国广播公司(BBC)采访时表示,他的工作是“地球上最糟糕的工作”。尽管如此,他称阿富汗安全部队在对付塔利班的斗争中已经取得了突破,联军部队将能够在2021年前撤离。

撤离的日期没错,只是和他预测的方式不一样。美国在前任总统唐纳德•特朗普的任内开始和塔利班进行直接对话,试图结束这场美国历史上耗时最长的战争,而加尼被排除在谈判之外。今年,现任美国总统乔•拜登将撤军最后期限设定为8月31日,之后塔利班不断在军事上取得胜利,加尼却拒绝让位,不肯回应让过渡政府掌权的呼吁。

“加尼假装支持和平,但实际上他支持战争,以便继续掌权,即使这样做会让民众丧命,会使塔利班重新选择武力。”前阿富汗驻欧洲大使、大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)成员奥玛•萨马德称,“拖延战术毁掉了达成协议的机会,协议会让他下台,但却能为全面过渡奠定基础。”

“我不会逃跑!”

8月14日塔利班进入喀布尔时,加尼告诉民众,他不会重蹈前国王阿曼努拉•汗的覆辙——1929年,阿曼努拉•汗退位,逃到英属印度。

“我不会逃跑!”8月4日,加尼在喀布尔的一次活动上大声表态,“我不会寻求避风港,我要为人民服务。”

然而,当塔利班在全国范围内发动闪电进攻,并向喀布尔挺进时,加尼似乎越来越与世隔绝。在他逃离前几个小时发布的一段视频中,加尼呼吁阿富汗国防部为市民设立电话求助热线。

“叛国”

逃跑后,加尼在Facebook上发帖称他离开阿富汗是为了避免流血,这一举动激怒了他的内阁。

“他们把我们的手绑在背后,出卖了国家。”加尼逃离后,阿富汗代理国防部部长比斯米拉•穆罕默迪在推特(Twitter)上说。“加尼和他的团队真是混蛋。”

由于加尼下落不明,前总统卡尔扎伊和其他阿富汗政界人士一道,正在牵头与塔利班的多哈谈判,商讨组建新政府。倒是有一件事情他们很容易能够达成一致:对加尼的鄙夷。

“阿什拉夫•加尼背叛了自己的祖国、团队和部落。”塔利班的媒体团队成员阿卜杜勒•哈克•哈马德向阿富汗的Tolo News表示,“这种叛国行为将永远被铭记。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

If anyone was supposed to know how to fix Afghanistan, it was Ashraf Ghani.

Before becoming president in 2014, Ghani spent much of his life studying how to boost growth in poor nations. A Fulbright Scholar with a doctorate from Columbia University, he taught at some of America’s elite academic institutions before stints at the World Bank and United Nations. Later he co-wrote “Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World.”

Now Ghani’s whereabouts are a mystery after he fled Afghanistan on August 15. Reports have spotted him everywhere from Tajikistan to Oman to Abu Dhabi, with the Russians claiming he left with four cars and a helicopter full of cash. In Afghanistan he’s become a villain: his central bank chief and key members of his administration have denounced him publicly. Efforts to reach him or his close aides were unsuccessful.

In many ways, Ghani’s swift downfall reflects the broader failures of the U.S. to impose a government on Afghanistan that had buy-in from a range of competing power brokers with a long history of fighting on the battlefield rather than at the ballot box. Although he was a Pashtun, the country’s dominant ethnic group, Ghani was seen as an outsider who lacked the political touch to unite disparate factions, and he became more isolated over time.

“Ghani was not accommodating of the realities of how Afghanistan works,” said Kabir Taneja, author of “The ISIS Peril: The World’s Most Feared Terror Group and its Shadow on South Asia” and a fellow at Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “He either didn’t understand or couldn’t understand the warlords, who are essentially people representing ethnic fault lines.”

After the U.S. invasion in 2001, Ghani returned to Afghanistan for the first time in more than a quarter-century, and served for two years as finance minister in an administration led by Hamid Karzai. Afterward Ghani became a darling of the international aid world, giving Ted Talks, penning op-eds in major newspapers and speaking at conferences. At one point he was considered a candidate for UN secretary-general.

Following a failed bid for the presidency in 2009, Ghani linked up with several prominent Afghan politicians -- including influential warlord-turned-vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum -- to win the top job five years later. But his victory was undermined from the start: John Kerry, then America’s top diplomat, flew to Kabul to broker a unity government that gave his main rival the position of “chief executive” -- a title that appears nowhere in Afghanistan’s U.S.-modeled constitution.

In 2017, Ghani said he had “the worst job on earth” in an interview with the BBC. Still, he claimed that Afghan security forces had turned a corner against the Taliban and coalition forces would be able to leave by 2021.

That turned out to be accurate, just not in the way he predicted. President Donald Trump’s administration started direct talks with the Taliban in a bid to end America’s longest war, and shut Ghani out of the process. Then this year, after President Joe Biden set a withdrawal deadline for Aug. 31, Ghani resisted calls to step aside and allow a transitional government to take power as the Taliban made military advances.

“Ghani pretended to be for peace, but in reality he was in favor of war in order to remain in power even if it cost lives and pushed the Taliban to revert back to a military option,” said Omar Samad, former Afghan ambassador to Europe and fellow at Atlantic Council. “The delay tactics ruined the chances for a deal that would have removed him from office but would have paved the way for a broad-based transition.”

“I Will Not Flee!”

As the Taliban descended on Kabul on August 14, Ghani told the people that he would avoid the fate of former king Amanullah Khan, who abdicated and fled to British India in 1929.

“I will not flee!” Ghani said at an event in Kabul on Aug. 4, raising his voice loudly. “I won’t seek safe haven and I will be at the service of people.”

Yet as the Taliban blitzed across the country and marched to Kabul, Ghani appeared increasingly isolated. In a video released hours before he fled, Ghani called for the defense ministry to set up telephone helplines for citizens to call.

“Treason”

After leaving, Ghani released a Facebook post saying he exited the country to avoid bloodshed -- a move that infuriated his cabinet.

“They tied our hands behind our backs and sold off the country,” Bismillah Mohammadi, Afghanistan’s acting defense minister, said on Twitter after Ghani fled. “Damn to Ghani and his team.”

With Ghani nowhere to be found, former president Karzai and other Afghan politicians are now leading talks with the Taliban in Doha on setting up a new government. One thing they’ll easily agree on: Disdain for Ghani.

“Ashraf Ghani has betrayed his own motherland, team and tribe,” Abdul Haq Hamad, a member of Taliban’s media team, told Afghanistan’s Tolo News. “Such treason will always be remembered.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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