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新冠疫情叠加通胀,全球啤酒行业面临复杂形势

Adrian Croft
2021-08-29

受新冠疫情影响和长期趋势推动,啤酒行业的复苏一直不均衡。

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随着新冠疫情的限制逐渐放松,各地的不少酒吧和餐馆重新开业,全球最大啤酒商的利润也蒸蒸日上,但从大麦到铝等各种大宗商品通胀猖獗,其今明两年的利润空间可能再次遭受挤压。

新冠疫情迫使多国酒吧、俱乐部和酒店关闭,南非和泰国甚至暂时禁止酒精销售。经历了艰难的一年后,大型啤酒商嘉士伯(Carlsberg)也报告称业务正在复苏。

8月18日,嘉士伯表示,上半年收入增长10%,略低于50亿美元,净利润同比增长6%,预测2021年全年营业利润将增长8%至11%,高于此前5%至10%的目标。

嘉士伯称,相关数据比起2019年上半年新冠疫情爆发前还要强劲,该公司还表示,全球最大的啤酒市场中国业务势头稳健。

然而,嘉士伯及竞争对手复苏不能仅仅归因于全球餐饮行业重新开放。不管是嘉士伯还是其竞争对手,包括全球领先的百威英博公司(Anheuser-Busch InBev)和排名第二的啤酒制造商喜力(Heineken),都要迅速在B2B和DTC(直接面向消费者)模式中壮大线上渠道,以便灵活适应封闭的世界。

如今的饮酒者越来越多地前往超市购买啤酒,晚上外出喝啤酒越发少,所以酿酒巨头不得不减少桶装啤酒供应,转而生产更多的罐装啤酒。为了满足更注重健康的公众需求,啤酒商还迅速增加了低酒精和无酒精啤酒,也在寻找多样化替代品,比如硬苏打和风味酒精汽水之类,在美国等地方很受欢迎。

与此同时,三家啤酒商都在努力鼓励饮酒者转向高品质、高利润的品牌。

嘉士伯在最新报告中表示,无酒精啤酒销量增长了26%。百威英博旗下的“Beyond Beer”业务主要销售硬苏打、罐装葡萄酒和鸡尾酒,二季度收入增长45%,一杯杯算下来利润比传统啤酒销售高出20%。

恢复不均衡

受新冠疫情影响和长期趋势推动,啤酒行业的复苏一直不均衡。

6月和7月初的欧洲杯期间,很多国家的酒吧重新开张,西欧的啤酒销量大幅增长。

但嘉士伯的首席执行官郝瀚思(Cees’t Hart)表示,与新冠病毒相关的不确定性依然存在,越南、印尼和泰国等东南亚国家受到德尔塔变异病毒重创,新冠疫苗接种率较低的国家面临大量感染和死亡。

“尽管整个欧洲市场逐渐恢复到正常环境,但在其他地区特别是亚洲市场,由于新一波感染,种种限制仍然很严格。”他说。

各大啤酒商在美国遇到的问题并不一样,因为2019年新冠病毒来袭之前美国啤酒消费量就已经下降数年,而葡萄酒和烈酒的消费量逐渐上升。疫情期间趋势仍然在继续。饮料市场分析公司IWSR称,2020年酒精饮料销量增长2%,为2002年以来最大增幅。去年美国烈酒销量增长近5%,而啤酒销量下降近3%。

通胀影响即将来临

很大程度上来说,新冠疫情对啤酒消费的影响已成过去,前方最大的阴霾则是通货膨胀。

嘉士伯的首席财务官海涅·达尔斯高告诉分析师,由于大麦、制作易拉罐的铝和制作塑料包装的原油等投入品成本增加,明年公司将面临更大挑战。

他说,很多市场都面临易拉罐供应短缺,运输业受到挤压,例如英国卡车司机就很紧缺。

啤酒商采取对冲措施后,有机会免受今年成本上涨的全面影响,但2022年影响可能加重,除非啤酒商将额外成本转嫁给消费者,要么就在其他地方节省开支。

达尔斯高表示,嘉士伯目标是提价或销售更高价的产品,利用啤酒获取更高收入,以弥补成本上升。

过去几周发布最新盈利报告时,百威英博和喜力也抱怨了成本压力。

喜力表示,今年下半年开始,公司将受到大宗商品成本上涨影响,2022年将受到“重大影响”。喜力的首席执行官多尔夫·范·丹·布林克指出,虽然该公司有对冲头寸,跟供应商也签订了长期合同,暂时不会受到部分价格上涨影响,不过大宗商品价格攀升对“明年将造成很大影响。”

范·丹·布林克认为,高通胀的影响不仅限于制造啤酒的谷物。

“几乎涵盖了各种商品;现货价格增长达两位数。公路运输、海运、铝、塑料、糖,无论哪种商品,通货膨胀都很快。”本月他接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时表示。

喜力称,由于通货膨胀,预计2021年下半年营业利润率将低于去年同期。公司还表示,全年财务业绩仍将低于2019年。

尽管预估谨慎,上半年喜力业绩还是超出了分析师的预期,啤酒销量增长了10%,营业利润翻了一番,达到16.3亿欧元(19亿美元)。

旗下拥有百威(Budweiser)、时代啤酒(Stella Artois)和科罗娜(Corona)的百威英博二季度收入增长27%,达到135亿美元,超过了新冠疫情前的水平,而核心收入增长31%,达到48.5亿美元。不过结果不及分析师预期,百威英博表示,由于供应链收紧造成成本上升,二季度美国业务核心利润略有下降。

嘉士伯股价2020年的跌幅已经完全涨回,目前股价比新冠疫情爆发前的2020年1月峰值高出约3%。喜力股价较2020年的高点仍然跌去了约10%,而百威英博的股价较2020年年初大幅下跌了30%。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

随着新冠疫情的限制逐渐放松,各地的不少酒吧和餐馆重新开业,全球最大啤酒商的利润也蒸蒸日上,但从大麦到铝等各种大宗商品通胀猖獗,其今明两年的利润空间可能再次遭受挤压。

新冠疫情迫使多国酒吧、俱乐部和酒店关闭,南非和泰国甚至暂时禁止酒精销售。经历了艰难的一年后,大型啤酒商嘉士伯(Carlsberg)也报告称业务正在复苏。

8月18日,嘉士伯表示,上半年收入增长10%,略低于50亿美元,净利润同比增长6%,预测2021年全年营业利润将增长8%至11%,高于此前5%至10%的目标。

嘉士伯称,相关数据比起2019年上半年新冠疫情爆发前还要强劲,该公司还表示,全球最大的啤酒市场中国业务势头稳健。

然而,嘉士伯及竞争对手复苏不能仅仅归因于全球餐饮行业重新开放。不管是嘉士伯还是其竞争对手,包括全球领先的百威英博公司(Anheuser-Busch InBev)和排名第二的啤酒制造商喜力(Heineken),都要迅速在B2B和DTC(直接面向消费者)模式中壮大线上渠道,以便灵活适应封闭的世界。

如今的饮酒者越来越多地前往超市购买啤酒,晚上外出喝啤酒越发少,所以酿酒巨头不得不减少桶装啤酒供应,转而生产更多的罐装啤酒。为了满足更注重健康的公众需求,啤酒商还迅速增加了低酒精和无酒精啤酒,也在寻找多样化替代品,比如硬苏打和风味酒精汽水之类,在美国等地方很受欢迎。

与此同时,三家啤酒商都在努力鼓励饮酒者转向高品质、高利润的品牌。

嘉士伯在最新报告中表示,无酒精啤酒销量增长了26%。百威英博旗下的“Beyond Beer”业务主要销售硬苏打、罐装葡萄酒和鸡尾酒,二季度收入增长45%,一杯杯算下来利润比传统啤酒销售高出20%。

恢复不均衡

受新冠疫情影响和长期趋势推动,啤酒行业的复苏一直不均衡。

6月和7月初的欧洲杯期间,很多国家的酒吧重新开张,西欧的啤酒销量大幅增长。

但嘉士伯的首席执行官郝瀚思(Cees’t Hart)表示,与新冠病毒相关的不确定性依然存在,越南、印尼和泰国等东南亚国家受到德尔塔变异病毒重创,新冠疫苗接种率较低的国家面临大量感染和死亡。

“尽管整个欧洲市场逐渐恢复到正常环境,但在其他地区特别是亚洲市场,由于新一波感染,种种限制仍然很严格。”他说。

各大啤酒商在美国遇到的问题并不一样,因为2019年新冠病毒来袭之前美国啤酒消费量就已经下降数年,而葡萄酒和烈酒的消费量逐渐上升。疫情期间趋势仍然在继续。饮料市场分析公司IWSR称,2020年酒精饮料销量增长2%,为2002年以来最大增幅。去年美国烈酒销量增长近5%,而啤酒销量下降近3%。

通胀影响即将来临

很大程度上来说,新冠疫情对啤酒消费的影响已成过去,前方最大的阴霾则是通货膨胀。

嘉士伯的首席财务官海涅·达尔斯高告诉分析师,由于大麦、制作易拉罐的铝和制作塑料包装的原油等投入品成本增加,明年公司将面临更大挑战。

他说,很多市场都面临易拉罐供应短缺,运输业受到挤压,例如英国卡车司机就很紧缺。

啤酒商采取对冲措施后,有机会免受今年成本上涨的全面影响,但2022年影响可能加重,除非啤酒商将额外成本转嫁给消费者,要么就在其他地方节省开支。

达尔斯高表示,嘉士伯目标是提价或销售更高价的产品,利用啤酒获取更高收入,以弥补成本上升。

过去几周发布最新盈利报告时,百威英博和喜力也抱怨了成本压力。

喜力表示,今年下半年开始,公司将受到大宗商品成本上涨影响,2022年将受到“重大影响”。喜力的首席执行官多尔夫·范·丹·布林克指出,虽然该公司有对冲头寸,跟供应商也签订了长期合同,暂时不会受到部分价格上涨影响,不过大宗商品价格攀升对“明年将造成很大影响。”

范·丹·布林克认为,高通胀的影响不仅限于制造啤酒的谷物。

“几乎涵盖了各种商品;现货价格增长达两位数。公路运输、海运、铝、塑料、糖,无论哪种商品,通货膨胀都很快。”本月他接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时表示。

喜力称,由于通货膨胀,预计2021年下半年营业利润率将低于去年同期。公司还表示,全年财务业绩仍将低于2019年。

尽管预估谨慎,上半年喜力业绩还是超出了分析师的预期,啤酒销量增长了10%,营业利润翻了一番,达到16.3亿欧元(19亿美元)。

旗下拥有百威(Budweiser)、时代啤酒(Stella Artois)和科罗娜(Corona)的百威英博二季度收入增长27%,达到135亿美元,超过了新冠疫情前的水平,而核心收入增长31%,达到48.5亿美元。不过结果不及分析师预期,百威英博表示,由于供应链收紧造成成本上升,二季度美国业务核心利润略有下降。

嘉士伯股价2020年的跌幅已经完全涨回,目前股价比新冠疫情爆发前的2020年1月峰值高出约3%。喜力股价较2020年的高点仍然跌去了约10%,而百威英博的股价较2020年年初大幅下跌了30%。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

The fizz is back in the profits of the world’s biggest brewers as bars and restaurants in many parts of the world reopen with the easing of COVID restrictions, but rampant inflation in everything from barley to aluminum could put a squeeze on their margins through this year and the next.

Carlsberg is the latest big brewer to report a recovery in its business after a rough year in which the pandemic forced the closure of pubs, clubs, and hotels in many countries and even led South Africa and Thailand to temporarily ban alcohol sales.

Carlsberg said August 18 its revenues grew by 10% in the first half to just under $5 billion, while net profit rose 6% from a year earlier, and it forecast that operating profit for the whole of 2021 would grow by between 8% and 11%, higher than the previous 5% to 10% target.

The figures were ahead of comparable results for the first half of 2019, before the pandemic struck, Carlsberg said, and it reported strong business in China, the world’s biggest beer market.

Carlsberg’s recovery—and that of its competitors—cannot be chalked up only to the reopening of the world’s hospitality sector, however. Carlsberg and its rivals, global leader Anheuser-Busch InBev and No. 2 brewer Heineken, have had to be nimble to adapt to a locked-down world, rapidly expanding their online channels, both business-to-business and direct-to-consumer.

With drinkers buying more beer from supermarkets and less on a night out, the brewing giants have had to produce more beer in cans instead of barrels. To meet demand from a more health-conscious public, they have also rapidly stepped up sales of low- and no-alcohol beers and are diversifying into alternatives, such as hard seltzer, flavored alcoholic fizzy water that has been a hit in the United States and elsewhere.

At the same time, all three brewers are pushing ahead with their efforts to encourage drinkers to switch to higher-quality, more profitable brands.

In its latest report, Carlsberg said sales of alcohol-free brews grew 26% by volume. And AB InBev’s “Beyond Beer” business, which sells hard seltzers and canned wines and cocktails, grew revenue by 45% in the second quarter, delivering 20% higher profits glass-for-glass than traditional beer.

Uneven recovery

The beer world’s recovery has been an uneven one, driven by both COVID news and long-term trends.

Beer sales in Western Europe were boosted in June and early July when the reopening of bars and pubs in many countries coincided with the European soccer championship.

But Carlsberg CEO Cees ’t Hart said COVID-related uncertainty persisted, with Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand hit hard by the Delta variant, causing high numbers of infections and death in countries with low vaccination rates.

“Although we see a gradual return to a more normal environment in markets across Europe, other markets, particularly in Asia, remain subject to severe restrictions due to new waves of the infection,” he said.

The brewers have a different problem in the U.S., where beer drinking had been declining for several years even before the arrival of COVID-19, while wine and spirits consumption rose. That trend continued during the pandemic: Alcohol sales rose 2% by volume in 2020, the biggest increase since 2002, according to drinks market analyst IWSR. U.S. spirits sales rose nearly 5% by volume last year, but beer sales fell nearly 3%.

Inflation on the horizon

With the pandemic’s effects on beer consumption largely in the rearview mirror, the largest cloud on the horizon is inflation.

Carlsberg chief financial officer Heine Dalsgaard told analysts the company would face a significantly greater challenge next year from increased costs for inputs such as barley, aluminum to make cans, and oil used to make plastic packaging.

Cans were in short supply in many markets, he said, and there were squeezes on transportation, such as a lack of truck drivers in the U.K.

Hedging will likely protect brewers from the full impact of cost increases this year, but the input price increases could bite in 2022 unless brewers can pass on the extra costs to consumers or save money elsewhere.

Dalsgaard said Carlsberg would aim to recoup increased costs by extracting higher revenues from its beer, either through price hikes or by selling more higher-priced products.

AB InBev and Heineken also complained of cost pressures when they released their latest earnings updates in the past few weeks.

Heineken said higher commodity costs would start to affect the company in the second half of this year and would have a “material impact” in 2022. CEO Dolf van den Brink said that while his firm’s hedged positions and long-term contracts with suppliers sheltered it from part of the price increases for now, commodity price inflation “will particularly impact us next year.”

Van den Brink noted that high inflation did not just affect the grain used to make beer.

“It’s across almost any commodity type; you see double-digit increases in the spot prices. It’s in road transportation, it’s in ocean freight, it’s in aluminum, it’s in plastic, it’s in sugar—no matter the commodity type, there’s very fast inflation happening,” he said in an interview with CNBC this month.

Heineken said that owing to inflation it expected its operating profit margin to be lower in the second half of 2021 compared with the same period last year. It also said that full-year financial results would remain below those of 2019.

Despite the caution, Heineken beat analysts’ expectations in the first half, with a 10% increase in beer sales by volume and a doubling of operating profit to 1.63 billion euros ($1.9 billion).

At AB InBev, which makes Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Corona, second-quarter revenues rose 27% to $13.5 billion, pulling ahead of pre-pandemic levels, while core earnings rose 31% to $4.85 billion. But the results fell short of analysts’ expectations, and the brewer said that its core profit in the U.S. fell slightly in the second quarter as it absorbed higher costs caused by a tighter supply chain.

Carlsberg shares have recovered all their 2020 losses and now trade about 3% higher than their pre-pandemic January 2020 peak. Heineken shares are still about 10% down from their 2020 highs, while AB InBev’s are down a hefty 30% from the start of 2020.

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