就连快餐业的霸主也难以避免供应链短缺问题。
麦当劳(McDonald’s)在上周宣布,由于英国脱欧之后的移民规定增加了公司招聘卡车司机运送货物的难度,导致其位于英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士的餐厅的奶昔和瓶装饮料告急。
随着英国出现物资短缺,除了这家美国连锁餐厅以外,还有许多公司都减少了货物配送频率,并优先考虑最有利可图和最容易运输的货物。
Nando’s和肯德基(KFC)等餐厅已经关门歇业,并出现了餐品供应不足的问题,而乳业巨头Arla和糖果生产商哈瑞宝(Haribo)等超市供应商则出现了库存问题。就连英国石油业巨头英国石油(BP)也不得不临时关闭了部分英国加油站,因为无铅汽油和柴油的供应出现短缺。
随着各国经济在结束新冠疫情封锁之后开始复苏,每个领域都面临供应链瓶颈。然而英国的问题最为严重。英国脱欧之后的就业规定迫使许多移民只能回国,造成英国劳工短缺,导致目前在全世界普遍存在的供应链问题在英国进一步恶化。
现在,随着英国即将启动急需的后疫情时代经济复苏,英国企业一直在想方设法寻找应对供应短缺的解决方案,甚至考虑雇佣囚犯从事肉品包装工作。但英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊领导的政府决心取消外国劳工的自由流动,在这种情况,供应链短缺问题在短期内不会消失。
劳工不足
据英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics)统计,2020年约有100万名非英国出生的常住人口离开英国。这个数字创下了自第二次世界大战(World War II)以来英国常住人口最大的年度降幅,新冠疫情在其中产生了显著影响。
劳工数量减少的趋势从在英国就业的卡车司机的数量变化可见一斑,这也是判断供应链短缺的关键指标。本月早些时候,英国司机行业组织英国道路运输协会(Road Haulage Association)根据会员调查结果估计,英国卡车司机的缺口超过10万人,在新冠疫情之前,英国雇佣的卡车司机多达60万人。
在英国离开欧洲单一市场之前,任何欧盟公民都可以在英国就业。但在英国脱欧之后,许多卡车司机被归入“低技术劳工”,他们大部分来自东欧。英国最新的积分制禁止“低技术劳工”在境内就业,但更有利于接受过教育的劳工和技术工人在英国就业。
英国脱欧问题也压缩了剩余卡车司机的利润空间。英国脱欧之后,边境的官僚作风加剧,延误了卡车司机入境,而卡车司机是按照行驶里程收费,而不是根据时间来收费,由此造成的损失令他们难以承受。
除了与英国脱欧有关的挑战以外,英国还存在劳动力老龄化以及年轻人不愿意从事卡车运输业等问题。此外,卡车司机协会指出,由于新冠疫情的影响,去年有约3万场驾照考试没有如期举行。
英国经济复苏前景堪忧
英国自作自受造成的劳动力短缺,也是其开启急需的后疫情时代经济复苏需要担心的问题。
8月的IHS Markit/CIPS综合采购经理人指数(Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index)从7月的59.2降至55.3,为六个月最低。虽然该指数超过50往往意味着经济正在增长,但有分析师担心,这个数字的下降可能表明经济反弹正在失去动力,供应限制使制造业和服务业的产出增长受到影响。
CIPS集团董事邓肯•布洛克表示,这些数字发出了“严重警告”。
他指出,“总体经济活动反常地大规模减速”意味着今年夏初英国解除疫情封锁之后的快速增长是“不可持续的”。
他补充道:“最主要的原因是人员和原材料的严重短缺。”
IHS Markit的经济学家克里斯•威廉姆森认为,上一次出现这种程度的供应延误,是在新冠疫情发生后的前几个月,因为人员和原材料短缺而导致产量下降的公司数量“大幅增加,达到我们在开展调查的20多年间前所未见的水平。”
解决供应短缺
卡车司机短缺导致许多公司不得不想方设法吸引员工。超市业巨头乐购(Tesco)将向9月底前入职的司机发放1,000英镑(约合1,370美元)奖金。
有些公司对现有员工培训,以安排他们从事人力不足的岗位。英国连锁超市Morrisons目前开展的一个项目,计划将现有员工培训成卡车司机。南非鸡肉餐厅Nando’s的供应商Avara Foods表示,其英国员工因为英国脱欧出现严重不足,而且人力不足的情况似乎是“结构性变化”,没有“快速解决的明显迹象”,因此该餐厅决定安排70名员工帮助其英国门店包装鸡肉。
另外,肉类行业的领导者在上周与政府进行交流,讨论了公司雇佣囚犯和刑满释放人员以帮助解决人手不足问题的可能性。
英国肉类供应商独立协会(Association of Independent Meat Suppliers)对英国广播公司(BBC)表示,目前全国肉食供应行业短缺1.4万名工人,而且由于新冠疫情、英国脱欧和民众对从事肉类包装和卡车司机等岗位缺乏兴趣,一场“招聘危机”即将爆发。
政府应对不力
随着受新冠疫情影响的公司数量越来越多,行业组织正在向政府施压,要求政府调整现有的制度。
英国零售商协会(British Retail Consortium)与货运行业组织英国物流协会(Logistics UK)近日致函英国商业大臣关浩霆(Kwasi Kwarteng),警告政府必须介入解决劳工短缺问题,否则消费者将最终受害。英国家禽协会(British Poultry Council )也致函内政大臣普丽蒂•帕特尔,警告劳工短缺将导致鸡肉生产商的每周供应量减少高达10%。
面对压力,英国政府却始终力挺其积分移民制度。一名政府发言人告诉《财富》杂志,英国政府致力于“维护英国的利益,优先考虑英国现有的技能,同时吸引经济增长急需的人才。”
这位发言人称:“英国民众用选票支持我们取消人员自由流动,重新掌控我们的移民制度,这就是我们的方案。”这位发言人补充说,政府已经有与食品行业合作保证必要劳动力供应的“既定方案”。
发言人认为,受影响的行业“多年来过度依赖外来劳工”,公司应该通过提供更好的培训、更诱人的职业发展路线和更高薪酬,提高其岗位对英国劳动者的吸引力。
政府发言人补充说,约翰逊政府已经制定了解决重型货运车辆(HGV)司机短缺问题的一系列措施,计划简化新司机取得重型货运车辆驾照的手续,并安排更多驾照考试。政府临时放宽了驾驶时间规定,并允许司机小幅延长驾驶里程。
现在,英国消费者似乎只能忍受供应短缺,或者发挥自己的创意来解决这个问题,比如自制奶昔。一位麦当劳的发言人告诉《财富》杂志,该连锁餐厅无法确定奶昔饮料什么时候可以恢复供应。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
就连快餐业的霸主也难以避免供应链短缺问题。
麦当劳(McDonald’s)在上周宣布,由于英国脱欧之后的移民规定增加了公司招聘卡车司机运送货物的难度,导致其位于英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士的餐厅的奶昔和瓶装饮料告急。
随着英国出现物资短缺,除了这家美国连锁餐厅以外,还有许多公司都减少了货物配送频率,并优先考虑最有利可图和最容易运输的货物。
Nando’s和肯德基(KFC)等餐厅已经关门歇业,并出现了餐品供应不足的问题,而乳业巨头Arla和糖果生产商哈瑞宝(Haribo)等超市供应商则出现了库存问题。就连英国石油业巨头英国石油(BP)也不得不临时关闭了部分英国加油站,因为无铅汽油和柴油的供应出现短缺。
随着各国经济在结束新冠疫情封锁之后开始复苏,每个领域都面临供应链瓶颈。然而英国的问题最为严重。英国脱欧之后的就业规定迫使许多移民只能回国,造成英国劳工短缺,导致目前在全世界普遍存在的供应链问题在英国进一步恶化。
现在,随着英国即将启动急需的后疫情时代经济复苏,英国企业一直在想方设法寻找应对供应短缺的解决方案,甚至考虑雇佣囚犯从事肉品包装工作。但英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊领导的政府决心取消外国劳工的自由流动,在这种情况,供应链短缺问题在短期内不会消失。
劳工不足
据英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics)统计,2020年约有100万名非英国出生的常住人口离开英国。这个数字创下了自第二次世界大战(World War II)以来英国常住人口最大的年度降幅,新冠疫情在其中产生了显著影响。
劳工数量减少的趋势从在英国就业的卡车司机的数量变化可见一斑,这也是判断供应链短缺的关键指标。本月早些时候,英国司机行业组织英国道路运输协会(Road Haulage Association)根据会员调查结果估计,英国卡车司机的缺口超过10万人,在新冠疫情之前,英国雇佣的卡车司机多达60万人。
在英国离开欧洲单一市场之前,任何欧盟公民都可以在英国就业。但在英国脱欧之后,许多卡车司机被归入“低技术劳工”,他们大部分来自东欧。英国最新的积分制禁止“低技术劳工”在境内就业,但更有利于接受过教育的劳工和技术工人在英国就业。
英国脱欧问题也压缩了剩余卡车司机的利润空间。英国脱欧之后,边境的官僚作风加剧,延误了卡车司机入境,而卡车司机是按照行驶里程收费,而不是根据时间来收费,由此造成的损失令他们难以承受。
除了与英国脱欧有关的挑战以外,英国还存在劳动力老龄化以及年轻人不愿意从事卡车运输业等问题。此外,卡车司机协会指出,由于新冠疫情的影响,去年有约3万场驾照考试没有如期举行。
英国经济复苏前景堪忧
英国自作自受造成的劳动力短缺,也是其开启急需的后疫情时代经济复苏需要担心的问题。
8月的IHS Markit/CIPS综合采购经理人指数(Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index)从7月的59.2降至55.3,为六个月最低。虽然该指数超过50往往意味着经济正在增长,但有分析师担心,这个数字的下降可能表明经济反弹正在失去动力,供应限制使制造业和服务业的产出增长受到影响。
CIPS集团董事邓肯•布洛克表示,这些数字发出了“严重警告”。
他指出,“总体经济活动反常地大规模减速”意味着今年夏初英国解除疫情封锁之后的快速增长是“不可持续的”。
他补充道:“最主要的原因是人员和原材料的严重短缺。”
IHS Markit的经济学家克里斯•威廉姆森认为,上一次出现这种程度的供应延误,是在新冠疫情发生后的前几个月,因为人员和原材料短缺而导致产量下降的公司数量“大幅增加,达到我们在开展调查的20多年间前所未见的水平。”
解决供应短缺
卡车司机短缺导致许多公司不得不想方设法吸引员工。超市业巨头乐购(Tesco)将向9月底前入职的司机发放1,000英镑(约合1,370美元)奖金。
有些公司对现有员工培训,以安排他们从事人力不足的岗位。英国连锁超市Morrisons目前开展的一个项目,计划将现有员工培训成卡车司机。南非鸡肉餐厅Nando’s的供应商Avara Foods表示,其英国员工因为英国脱欧出现严重不足,而且人力不足的情况似乎是“结构性变化”,没有“快速解决的明显迹象”,因此该餐厅决定安排70名员工帮助其英国门店包装鸡肉。
另外,肉类行业的领导者在上周与政府进行交流,讨论了公司雇佣囚犯和刑满释放人员以帮助解决人手不足问题的可能性。
英国肉类供应商独立协会(Association of Independent Meat Suppliers)对英国广播公司(BBC)表示,目前全国肉食供应行业短缺1.4万名工人,而且由于新冠疫情、英国脱欧和民众对从事肉类包装和卡车司机等岗位缺乏兴趣,一场“招聘危机”即将爆发。
政府应对不力
随着受新冠疫情影响的公司数量越来越多,行业组织正在向政府施压,要求政府调整现有的制度。
英国零售商协会(British Retail Consortium)与货运行业组织英国物流协会(Logistics UK)近日致函英国商业大臣关浩霆(Kwasi Kwarteng),警告政府必须介入解决劳工短缺问题,否则消费者将最终受害。英国家禽协会(British Poultry Council )也致函内政大臣普丽蒂•帕特尔,警告劳工短缺将导致鸡肉生产商的每周供应量减少高达10%。
面对压力,英国政府却始终力挺其积分移民制度。一名政府发言人告诉《财富》杂志,英国政府致力于“维护英国的利益,优先考虑英国现有的技能,同时吸引经济增长急需的人才。”
这位发言人称:“英国民众用选票支持我们取消人员自由流动,重新掌控我们的移民制度,这就是我们的方案。”这位发言人补充说,政府已经有与食品行业合作保证必要劳动力供应的“既定方案”。
发言人认为,受影响的行业“多年来过度依赖外来劳工”,公司应该通过提供更好的培训、更诱人的职业发展路线和更高薪酬,提高其岗位对英国劳动者的吸引力。
政府发言人补充说,约翰逊政府已经制定了解决重型货运车辆(HGV)司机短缺问题的一系列措施,计划简化新司机取得重型货运车辆驾照的手续,并安排更多驾照考试。政府临时放宽了驾驶时间规定,并允许司机小幅延长驾驶里程。
现在,英国消费者似乎只能忍受供应短缺,或者发挥自己的创意来解决这个问题,比如自制奶昔。一位麦当劳的发言人告诉《财富》杂志,该连锁餐厅无法确定奶昔饮料什么时候可以恢复供应。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Even the fast-food king isn’t immune to supply-chain shortages.
McDonald’s last week announced it had run out of milkshakes and bottled drinks at its restaurants in England, Scotland, and Wales as tightened post-Brexit immigration rules have made it more difficult to hire truck drivers to transport goods.
The U.S. chain restaurant joins a long list of other businesses that are delivering to stores less frequently and prioritizing the most profitable and most easily transportable goods as shortages take hold in the U.K.
Restaurants like Nando’s and KFC have shuttered doors and reported missing menu items, and supermarket suppliers such as dairy giant Arla and sweets manufacturer Haribo have reported stocking issues. Even British oil giant BP has had to temporarily close some of its U.K. sites because not enough unleaded gasoline and diesel had been delivered.
As economies emerge from pandemic lockdowns, every corner of the globe is dealing with supply-chain bottlenecks. But almost nowhere are the problems as severe as those in the U.K. There, the general supply-chain hiccups seen around the world have been exacerbated by a lack of workers, as post-Brexit employment regulations have forced many immigrants to return home.
Now, with a much-needed post-pandemic economic recovery on the horizon, U.K. businesses have been trying to find creative solutions to the shortage—even floating plans to put prisoners to work packing meat. But with the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson determined to end the free movement of foreign workers, the problem is not likely to go away anytime soon.
Missing workers
Almost a million non-U.K.-born residents left Britain in 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics. The figure, heavily skewed by the COVID-19 pandemic, was the largest annual fall in resident population since World War II.
This population decline can be seen in the number of truck drivers plying their trade in the U.K., a key metric behind the supply-chain shortages. Based on a member survey, the Road Haulage Association, a drivers’ trade group, estimated earlier this month that there was a shortage of more than 100,000 drivers in the U.K.—a marked dent in the 600,000 drivers employed before the pandemic.
When the U.K. was part of the single European market, any EU citizen would be able to come to the country to work. But after Brexit, many truck drivers—often from Eastern Europe—were classified as “low skilled” and barred from entry under a new points-based system that favors educated and skilled workers.
Brexit problems have also made the job less profitable for those who have remained. Border bureaucracy has increased after the U.K.’s exit from the EU, causing delays that truck drivers who are paid by the mile rather than by the hour have found costly to endure.
In addition to Brexit-related difficulties—not to mention an aging workforce and a youth employment pool uninterested in joining the industry—the drivers’ association noted that some 30,000 driving tests did not take place last year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
U.K. recovery in limbo
The specter of a self-inflicted labor shortage is worrying as a much-needed post-pandemic economic recovery takes shape.
The IHS Markit/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August hit a six-month low of 55.3, falling from 59.2 in July. While any reading above 50 indicates growth, the declining numbers have led some analysts to worry that the bounce-back from the pandemic is losing momentum, with supply constraints hitting output growth in the manufacturing and service sectors.
The figures are “a stark warning,” said CIPS group director Duncan Brock.
He noted that the “abnormally large slowdown in overall activity” meant the accelerated levels of growth seen earlier in the summer, as the U.K. emerged from pandemic lockdown, were “not sustainable.”
“The worst shortages of staff and materials on record are mostly to blame,” he added.
IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson pointed out that the only time supplier delays had previously risen to this degree was in the initial months of the pandemic, and the number of companies reporting falling output owing to staff and material shortages “has risen far above anything ever seen previously in more than 20 years of survey history.”
Maneuvering through the shortage
The lorry driver shortage is making some companies go to extraordinary lengths to attract employees. Supermarket giant Tesco is offering a £1,000 bonus (about $1,370) to drivers who join before the end of September.
Others are working to train staff to do different jobs that face worker shortages. British supermarket chain Morrisons is currently putting together a program to train staff to become truck drivers. South African chicken restaurant Nando’s is deploying 70 members of its staff to help pack chicken for its U.K. stores after supplier Avara Foods said that its U.K. workforce had been severely depleted as a result of Brexit and that the labor shortage looked like a “structural change” that showed “no obvious signs of being resolved quickly.”
Meat industry leaders, meanwhile, held talks with the government last week to discuss the option of businesses’ employing prisoners and ex-inmates to help plug labor shortages.
The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers told the BBC that the industry currently had about 14,000 job vacancies and that with COVID-19, Brexit, and a lack of interest in meatpacking and truck driving jobs, a “recruitment crisis” loomed on the horizon.
Government pushback
As the number of businesses suffering from the pandemic mounts, industry groups are putting pressure on the government to make changes to the system.
In a letter to U.K. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and freight trade group Logistics UK warned that consumers will suffer unless the government intervenes, and the British Poultry Council warned the government in a letter to Home Secretary Priti Patel that staff shortages would result in chicken producers cutting weekly supply by up to 10%.
In the face of pressure, the government has stood by its points-based immigration system. A government spokesperson told Fortune it “works in the interests of the U.K. by prioritizing the skills we already have in the U.K. while attracting the talent our economy needs to grow.”
“The British people voted for us to end free movement and take back control of our immigration system, and that is exactly what we have delivered,” the spokesperson said, adding that the government had “well-established ways” of working with the food sector to ensure businesses have the labor they need.
The spokesperson suggested that the sectors impacted had been “over-reliant on migrant workers for many years,” and that businesses should be making jobs more attractive to U.K. workers with better training, better career pathways, and higher salaries.
The government spokesperson added that Prime Minister Johnson’s administration had brought in a package of measures to tackle the heavy goods vehicle (HGV) driver shortage, with plans to streamline the process for new drivers to gain their HGV license and to increase the number of tests that can be conducted. The government has temporarily relaxed driver-hours rules as well to allow for slightly longer journeys.
For now, it seems U.K. consumers will simply have to endure shortages or find creative ways around them—such as by making their own milkshakes. A McDonald’s spokeswoman told Fortune that the chain did not have news on when the rich, creamy drinks would return.