狂潮,狂热,炙手可热。
这些词都可以用来描述2021年的交易环境。数字能说明一切:今年前10个月,全球并购交易总额达到4.7万亿美元——较2020年同期增长72%。据市场数据提供商Refinitiv称,2021年还没结束,该数字便已创下有记录以来的最高值。
对于这一交易狂潮,没有多少人的理解有金·波斯内特那么深刻。她是高盛全球投资银行服务部门的负责人,是第一位获得这一头衔的女性,同时也是最年轻(44岁)的获得这一头衔的人。她之前先后供职于高盛的技术、媒体和电信部门,近年来参与了科技行业的一些大规模IPO(首次公开招股),其中包括2021年上市的游戏平台Roblox、语言学习工具Duolingo和约会网站Bumble,以及WeWork 2019年告吹的IPO。她的地位正在迅速提升:两年内晋升了3次,包括今年4月被任命为高盛新跨部门客户服务项目联席主管。
波斯内特身处今年这场利润丰厚的交易洪流的中心。高盛第三季度的投资银行业务收入为37亿美元,同比增长近90%。然而,所有这些利润丰厚的业务都是由接近为零的利率和飙升的股价支撑起来的。如今,随着美联储开始缩减债券购买规模,通胀率居高不下,徘徊在30年高位,并购和IPO活动的热潮会出现降温吗?《财富》近日采访了波斯内特,透过其银行家视角了解交易行业的情况。
为简明和篇幅起见,采访内容经过摘编。
过去一两年的环境非常有利于交易。但是,如果通胀率持续走高,利率上行,会发生什么呢?
波斯内特:十八个月前,我们因为新冠疫情的来袭也有类似的担忧。当时传统观点认为,交易活动会放缓。后来确实放缓了一两个月,但随后交易活动加速涌现,完全超出了任何人的预期。
造成这种繁荣的根本因素仍然存在。新公司正在加速出现:所有这些私营公司都需要融资,而且这一趋势丝毫没有放缓的迹象。第二个因素是,战略活动在加速推进。在寻求摆脱疫情阴霾的过程中,各家企业的首席执行官和董事会有机会停下来,看看他们所在的行业处于什么位置,在发生什么样的变化。许多人正在依靠交易来重新调整自己的定位和业务。第三个因素是,金融投资者目前坐拥巨额资金。当他们将这笔资金投入使用时,就会催生交易活动。
如果我们是在一年前进行这次访谈,我会断言,这个行业一年的传统IPO数量不可能超过 1340宗。”但我们11月追踪到的数据显示,全球IPO总数已经超过1800宗,这还不包括SPAC(特殊目的收购公司)交易。预计资本市场会持续出现创新,企业会通过多种不同的方式上市,无论是IPO、直接上市还是SPAC。
你觉得未来会出现什么不利因素?
我的看法是,也许两年内利率会提高100个基点,但即便美国10年期国收益率达到2%或2.5%,经济环境也仍然十分宽松。
通胀压力将在很大程度上自行消解,但目前来看,这个过程显然将比最初预期的要长。目前,市场预期在相当长的一段时间内会出现可观的增长,支撑起交易活动。如果通胀压力正在增加,乃至持续更长时间,交易活动可能就会放缓。
但从我们现在了解到的一切情况来看,我确信交易活动将维持在历史高位水平。
有几家大型私营公司正在筹备IPO,我想到了Stripe等公司。 你对明年上市的科技公司有何预期?
我认为,有三大主题将在未来几年对科技行业IPO产生影响。第一,有的新技术已经出现了一段时间,疫情的出现加快了它们的普及。第二,垂直类技术盛行——本质上是技术应用于经济的各个领域。第三,电子商务催生了Square、Shopify、Stripe等新一代大型商户服务提供商。
另外,技术和数据为更多人提供了创业的机会。各种大型社交媒体和销售平台的存在,以及它们上面各类工具和功能的对外开放,有助于小型商家进行销售,有助于独立工程师编写程序,有有助于艺术家创作内容。这些技术平台让创作者可以建立自己的业务,将自己的流量变现。在我看来,这是未来几年科技领域的一大主题。
又一家大型交易平台今年成功上市,它就是Coinbase。投资者对加密货币领域的上市公司有多大的兴趣?
总的来说,该行业仍处于起步阶段。如果你问我是否预期会出现更多加密货币或数字资产领域的上市公司,我会给出肯定的回答。
今年,有报道称,在这种狂热的交易环境下,高盛及其他银行的银行家工作负荷巨大,精疲力竭。 你是如何应对这个问题的呢?
坦率地说,我们在一段时间内的确人手不足,一直在努力解决这些工作负荷问题。我们进行大举招聘,引入了更多人手。我们加强了训练和指导。我们尝试将尽可能多地将工作任务自动化。我们通过这么做来提供更多的保障,确保我们的初级银行家能够更好地平衡工作和生活。今年夏,我们采取措施提高初级银行家的薪酬。我个人认为,现在是成为银行家的好时机。但是,至于全球疫情结束后要怎么做,我们还没有想好,但可以肯定的是,我们还有很多工作要做。
你是一个有创造力的人——在进入投资银行行业之前,你在演艺行业开启了职业生涯。在如此忙碌的时期,你有没找到一种具有创造性的方式来帮助自己减压呢?
你知道我在疫情期间开始做什么了吗?那是一件很好的事情。我开始一边在中央公园散步一边开会。我希望这项活动在疫情结束后能够坚持下去,因为我认为它对工作有好处。(财富中文网)
本文的另一个版本刊登在《财富》杂志的2021年12月/2022年1月刊上,标题为“高盛的IPO VIP”。
译者:万志文
狂潮,狂热,炙手可热。
这些词都可以用来描述2021年的交易环境。数字能说明一切:今年前10个月,全球并购交易总额达到4.7万亿美元——较2020年同期增长72%。据市场数据提供商Refinitiv称,2021年还没结束,该数字便已创下有记录以来的最高值。
对于这一交易狂潮,没有多少人的理解有金·波斯内特那么深刻。她是高盛全球投资银行服务部门的负责人,是第一位获得这一头衔的女性,同时也是最年轻(44岁)的获得这一头衔的人。她之前先后供职于高盛的技术、媒体和电信部门,近年来参与了科技行业的一些大规模IPO(首次公开招股),其中包括2021年上市的游戏平台Roblox、语言学习工具Duolingo和约会网站Bumble,以及WeWork 2019年告吹的IPO。她的地位正在迅速提升:两年内晋升了3次,包括今年4月被任命为高盛新跨部门客户服务项目联席主管。
波斯内特身处今年这场利润丰厚的交易洪流的中心。高盛第三季度的投资银行业务收入为37亿美元,同比增长近90%。然而,所有这些利润丰厚的业务都是由接近为零的利率和飙升的股价支撑起来的。如今,随着美联储开始缩减债券购买规模,通胀率居高不下,徘徊在30年高位,并购和IPO活动的热潮会出现降温吗?《财富》近日采访了波斯内特,透过其银行家视角了解交易行业的情况。
为简明和篇幅起见,采访内容经过摘编。
过去一两年的环境非常有利于交易。但是,如果通胀率持续走高,利率上行,会发生什么呢?
波斯内特:十八个月前,我们因为新冠疫情的来袭也有类似的担忧。当时传统观点认为,交易活动会放缓。后来确实放缓了一两个月,但随后交易活动加速涌现,完全超出了任何人的预期。
造成这种繁荣的根本因素仍然存在。新公司正在加速出现:所有这些私营公司都需要融资,而且这一趋势丝毫没有放缓的迹象。第二个因素是,战略活动在加速推进。在寻求摆脱疫情阴霾的过程中,各家企业的首席执行官和董事会有机会停下来,看看他们所在的行业处于什么位置,在发生什么样的变化。许多人正在依靠交易来重新调整自己的定位和业务。第三个因素是,金融投资者目前坐拥巨额资金。当他们将这笔资金投入使用时,就会催生交易活动。
如果我们是在一年前进行这次访谈,我会断言,这个行业一年的传统IPO数量不可能超过 1340宗。”但我们11月追踪到的数据显示,全球IPO总数已经超过1800宗,这还不包括SPAC(特殊目的收购公司)交易。预计资本市场会持续出现创新,企业会通过多种不同的方式上市,无论是IPO、直接上市还是SPAC。
你觉得未来会出现什么不利因素?
我的看法是,也许两年内利率会提高100个基点,但即便美国10年期国收益率达到2%或2.5%,经济环境也仍然十分宽松。
通胀压力将在很大程度上自行消解,但目前来看,这个过程显然将比最初预期的要长。目前,市场预期在相当长的一段时间内会出现可观的增长,支撑起交易活动。如果通胀压力正在增加,乃至持续更长时间,交易活动可能就会放缓。
但从我们现在了解到的一切情况来看,我确信交易活动将维持在历史高位水平。
有几家大型私营公司正在筹备IPO,我想到了Stripe等公司。 你对明年上市的科技公司有何预期?
我认为,有三大主题将在未来几年对科技行业IPO产生影响。第一,有的新技术已经出现了一段时间,疫情的出现加快了它们的普及。第二,垂直类技术盛行——本质上是技术应用于经济的各个领域。第三,电子商务催生了Square、Shopify、Stripe等新一代大型商户服务提供商。
另外,技术和数据为更多人提供了创业的机会。各种大型社交媒体和销售平台的存在,以及它们上面各类工具和功能的对外开放,有助于小型商家进行销售,有助于独立工程师编写程序,有有助于艺术家创作内容。这些技术平台让创作者可以建立自己的业务,将自己的流量变现。在我看来,这是未来几年科技领域的一大主题。
又一家大型交易平台今年成功上市,它就是Coinbase。投资者对加密货币领域的上市公司有多大的兴趣?
总的来说,该行业仍处于起步阶段。如果你问我是否预期会出现更多加密货币或数字资产领域的上市公司,我会给出肯定的回答。
今年,有报道称,在这种狂热的交易环境下,高盛及其他银行的银行家工作负荷巨大,精疲力竭。 你是如何应对这个问题的呢?
坦率地说,我们在一段时间内的确人手不足,一直在努力解决这些工作负荷问题。我们进行大举招聘,引入了更多人手。我们加强了训练和指导。我们尝试将尽可能多地将工作任务自动化。我们通过这么做来提供更多的保障,确保我们的初级银行家能够更好地平衡工作和生活。今年夏,我们采取措施提高初级银行家的薪酬。我个人认为,现在是成为银行家的好时机。但是,至于全球疫情结束后要怎么做,我们还没有想好,但可以肯定的是,我们还有很多工作要做。
你是一个有创造力的人——在进入投资银行行业之前,你在演艺行业开启了职业生涯。在如此忙碌的时期,你有没找到一种具有创造性的方式来帮助自己减压呢?
你知道我在疫情期间开始做什么了吗?那是一件很好的事情。我开始一边在中央公园散步一边开会。我希望这项活动在疫情结束后能够坚持下去,因为我认为它对工作有好处。(财富中文网)
本文的另一个版本刊登在《财富》杂志的2021年12月/2022年1月刊上,标题为“高盛的IPO VIP”。
译者:万志文
Frenzy. mania. turbocharged.
All those words have been used to characterize the dealmaking environment in 2021. Regardless of the language, the numbers speak for themselves: In the first 10 months of this year, the total value of global mergers and acquisitions hit $4.7 trillion—a 72% increase from that period in 2020, and enough to make 2021 already the highest year on record, according to Refinitiv, a market data provider.
Few have as good a view of that dealmaking deluge as Kim Posnett, who heads up global investment banking services at Goldman Sachs—the first woman and, at 44, the youngest person to hold the title. Having cut her teeth in the firm’s tech, media, and telecom unit, Posnett has also worked on some of the biggest tech IPOs of recent years, including the 2021 debuts of game platform Roblox, language-learning tool Duolingo, and dating site Bumble, as well as WeWork’s failed IPO in 2019. Her star is rising fast: She’s been promoted three times in two years, including an April nod to co-lead Goldman’s new cross-divisional client services initiative.
Posnett has been smack in the middle of this year’s lucrative deal flow; Goldman posted $3.7 billion in investment banking revenues in the third quarter, a nearly 90% increase from a year earlier. All that juicy business, however, has been buttressed by near-zero interest rates and soaring stock prices. Now that the Federal Reserve is beginning to taper its bond purchases, and with inflation hovering at 30-year highs, will the M&A and IPO climate cool off? We sought out Posnett to get her banker bird’s-eye view.
This Q&A has been edited and condensed for space and clarity.
The environment in the past year or two has been very conducive to dealmaking. But what happens if we do see higher inflation for longer, and higher interest rates?
Posnett: Eighteen months ago, we had similar concerns about COVID. The conventional wisdom was dealmaking activity would slow down, and it did for a month or two, for sure, but then it sped up above and beyond what any of us expected.
The underlying reasons [for that boom] still remain valid. New company formation is accelerating: All those private companies need to be financed, and that’s not slowing down. Second is accelerating strategic activity. Coming out of the pandemic, CEOs and boards had the opportunity to pause and see where and how their industries were changing, and many [are relying on dealmaking] to reposition themselves and their businesses. The third reason is the sheer amount of capital the financial sponsors have right now. As they put that capital to work, that leads to dealmaking activity.
If we’d had this conversation a year ago, I would have said, “There’s no way that the industry could surpass 1,340 [traditional] IPOs.” But here we are in November tracking at over 1,800 global IPOs, excluding SPACs. I also expect continued capital markets innovation, and companies getting public through different structures, whether it’s an IPO, direct listing, or a SPAC.
What’s your take on the specific headwinds?
My view is, maybe rates are 100 basis points higher in two years, but even if rates are 2%, 2.5% for the 10-year [Treasury], that’s still a very accommodative economic backdrop.
Inflation pressures will largely work themselves out, but it is now clear that this process will take longer than initially expected. Right now, the market is pricing in decent growth for a good enough period of time to support dealmaking activity. If we learn that inflationary pressures are increasing and/or persisting for longer, that may slow things down.
Given everything we know today, I do believe that dealmaking will remain at these historically elevated levels.
There are several big private companies in the potential IPO pipeline—I’m thinking about Stripe, among others. What are you expecting to see next year in terms of tech companies tapping the public markets?
There are three themes that I think will influence tech IPOs in the next few years. Number one, you have new technologies that have been around for a while, but COVID sped up the adoption. The second is the prevalence of vertical technology—essentially the application of technology into all parts of our economy. Third, e-commerce has given rise to this new generation of huge merchant service providers like Square, Shopify, Stripe.
You’re also seeing technology and data enable entrepreneurship. You’ve got these large-scale social media and marketplace platforms, this universal access to tools and capabilities, and that’s helping smaller merchants sell; it’s helping individual engineers code; it’s helping artists create content. These tech platforms allow creators to build their own businesses and monetize their own traffic. And to me that’s a major theme in tech over the next few years.
Another big exchange, Coinbase, went public this year. What’s the appetite from investors for more crypto-related public companies?
It’s still very early days generally in the sector. Do I expect to see more public companies that are in the cryptocurrency digital asset sector? Yes, I do.
This year there have been reports at Goldman and other banks of banker burnout amid this crazy environment. How are you working to combat that?
Frankly, I think we were under-resourced for a period of time and have been working really hard to address those workload issues. We’ve aggressively hired more people. We’ve stepped up mentoring. We tried to automate as many tasks as possible. Those are all us trying to put more guardrails up to ensure that our junior bankers have a better work/life balance. And you saw this summer that we took steps to raise junior banker compensation. I personally think it’s a really exciting time to be a banker. But there’s no playbook for how to do this coming out of this global pandemic, and we definitely have more work to do.
You’re a creative person—you got your start in acting before heading to investment banking. Have you found a creative outlet that’s helped you decompress during such a busy time?
You know what I started doing during the pandemic, which was great? I started doing meetings while walking around Central Park. I hope that those persist post-COVID because I think it’s great for business.
A version of this article appears in the December 2021/January 2022 issue of Fortune with the headline, "Goldman Sachs' IPO VIP."