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股市的回调、修正与崩盘:区别何在

LARRY LIGHT
2021-12-12

回调有时会演变为修正,进而发展成崩盘。

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但丁的地狱分为九层,而股市投资者的地狱则只有三层,从回调到修正再到崩盘,情形一层比一层糟糕。除了造成的痛苦程度有所不同,它们的特点也各不相同。

虽然历史表明,股市上涨带来的收益远大于下跌带来的损失,但从本质上讲,下跌本身也是股市固有的形态之一。不过,当市场下跌真的出现在自己眼前之时,投资者依然会感到不安甚至恐慌,所以对股市状态多些了解总会对您有所帮助。

可以肯定的是回调有时会演变为修正,进而发展成崩盘。不过,在大多数情况下,我们在市场刚开始下跌时便能对其下跌幅度做出判断,前述三者之间的一大区别在于,引发下跌的问题有多严重。

古根海姆合伙人(Guggenheim Partners)的一份研究报告显示,所谓“回调”是指股票指数从近期高点下跌5%到10%,而且是一种短期现象,平均持续一个月的时间,并且只需再过一个月即可扳回跌幅。通常那些暂时性的重要新闻事件会引发市场回调。最近一次股市回调发生在今年9月,当时由于美国国会就国债上限问题争论不休,标普500指数下跌了5.2%,至少就目前而言,这场混乱算是得到了解决。

股市回调相当常见,二战以来共发生了84次(相当于每年大约一次),平均跌幅为7%。

“修正”的下跌幅度一般在10%到20%之间,由于惊慌失措的投资者纷纷平仓,快速进行买卖交易,市场剧烈波动。这种程度的下跌通常会持续四个月,而股市上涨“收复失地”所需要的时间与下跌持续时间相当。上一次出现股市修正发生在2018年末,当时由于美中贸易战加剧,加上利率上升,股票指数下跌了19%。古根海姆表示,战后股市修正共出现过29次,平均跌幅为14%。

由于修正持续时间通常较短,所以在发生修正的年份,股市整体通常可以收涨。施瓦布金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)发现,自1974年以来,标普500指数在市场修正触底一个月后平均可以上涨约8%,一年后的平均涨幅则超过24%。

“崩盘”是指幅度在20%以上的下跌现象,股市崩盘后几乎总会发生经济衰退。2008年,备受尊崇的华尔街企业雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)轰然倒塌,金融市场遭受了史诗级重创。根据其严重程度,崩盘可能持续11至23个月,最多需要5年才能恢复到崩盘前水平。最严重的股市崩盘发生在1929年,到1932年7月跌至谷底,当时,道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌70%,损失极为惨痛,用了25年,也就是说直到1954年才恢复到1929年的水平。

崩盘通常源于严重的经济危机,且会波及全球,比如2008年的次贷危机(当时标普500指数下跌了57%)或疫情“封城”(下跌了34%)。受政府大举刺激的影响,2020年股市崩盘的结尾颇为特别,市场不仅快速恢复,还再创新高。1946年以来已经发生了12次崩盘,平均跌幅35%左右,恢复时间则可能长达4年之久。

市场下跌就像热浪一样不可避免。但只要能够安然度过最糟糕的时期,我们就能全身而退,甚至还能在市场上占得先机。毕竟,就连但丁最终也成功逃离了地狱。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

但丁的地狱分为九层,而股市投资者的地狱则只有三层,从回调到修正再到崩盘,情形一层比一层糟糕。除了造成的痛苦程度有所不同,它们的特点也各不相同。

虽然历史表明,股市上涨带来的收益远大于下跌带来的损失,但从本质上讲,下跌本身也是股市固有的形态之一。不过,当市场下跌真的出现在自己眼前之时,投资者依然会感到不安甚至恐慌,所以对股市状态多些了解总会对您有所帮助。

可以肯定的是回调有时会演变为修正,进而发展成崩盘。不过,在大多数情况下,我们在市场刚开始下跌时便能对其下跌幅度做出判断,前述三者之间的一大区别在于,引发下跌的问题有多严重。

古根海姆合伙人(Guggenheim Partners)的一份研究报告显示,所谓“回调”是指股票指数从近期高点下跌5%到10%,而且是一种短期现象,平均持续一个月的时间,并且只需再过一个月即可扳回跌幅。通常那些暂时性的重要新闻事件会引发市场回调。最近一次股市回调发生在今年9月,当时由于美国国会就国债上限问题争论不休,标普500指数下跌了5.2%,至少就目前而言,这场混乱算是得到了解决。

股市回调相当常见,二战以来共发生了84次(相当于每年大约一次),平均跌幅为7%。

“修正”的下跌幅度一般在10%到20%之间,由于惊慌失措的投资者纷纷平仓,快速进行买卖交易,市场剧烈波动。这种程度的下跌通常会持续四个月,而股市上涨“收复失地”所需要的时间与下跌持续时间相当。上一次出现股市修正发生在2018年末,当时由于美中贸易战加剧,加上利率上升,股票指数下跌了19%。古根海姆表示,战后股市修正共出现过29次,平均跌幅为14%。

由于修正持续时间通常较短,所以在发生修正的年份,股市整体通常可以收涨。施瓦布金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)发现,自1974年以来,标普500指数在市场修正触底一个月后平均可以上涨约8%,一年后的平均涨幅则超过24%。

“崩盘”是指幅度在20%以上的下跌现象,股市崩盘后几乎总会发生经济衰退。2008年,备受尊崇的华尔街企业雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)轰然倒塌,金融市场遭受了史诗级重创。根据其严重程度,崩盘可能持续11至23个月,最多需要5年才能恢复到崩盘前水平。最严重的股市崩盘发生在1929年,到1932年7月跌至谷底,当时,道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌70%,损失极为惨痛,用了25年,也就是说直到1954年才恢复到1929年的水平。

崩盘通常源于严重的经济危机,且会波及全球,比如2008年的次贷危机(当时标普500指数下跌了57%)或疫情“封城”(下跌了34%)。受政府大举刺激的影响,2020年股市崩盘的结尾颇为特别,市场不仅快速恢复,还再创新高。1946年以来已经发生了12次崩盘,平均跌幅35%左右,恢复时间则可能长达4年之久。

市场下跌就像热浪一样不可避免。但只要能够安然度过最糟糕的时期,我们就能全身而退,甚至还能在市场上占得先机。毕竟,就连但丁最终也成功逃离了地狱。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Dante had nine circles of hell in his Inferno, but stock investors have just three, each one progressively worse: a pullback, a correction and a crash. Other than the degree of pain they inflict, these market downdrafts have different characteristics.

Stocks, by their nature, suffer declines, although history shows they gain much more than they lose. Nonetheless, when a market slide materializes, investor fear and even panic, too. It helps to know what you are facing.

Sure, a pullback can morph into a correction and then cascade into a crash. Most times, though, the degree of the market fall is evident pretty early. One key difference among the three classes of market descents is how large the problems were that triggered the drops in the first place.

Pullbacks are dips of 5% to 10% from a recent market high, and are short-term, lasting a month on average and taking another month to retrace the losses, according to a Guggenheim Partners research paper. Pullbacks often result from news events that turn out to be of fleeting important. Look at the last one, in September. The S&P 500 sunk 5.2% amid congressional wrangling over the national debt ceiling, a kerfuffle that got resolved, at least for the moment.

Pullbacks are fairly common, with 84 of them happening since World War II, meaning about one or so per year, with an average loss of 7%.

Corrections are slides between 10% and 20, violent affairs with high volatility—rapid buying and selling as freaked-out investors unload their positions. These market falls tend to last four months, with an equal period to get back to where they were. Corrections usually have their roots in more serious concerns. The last one, in late 2018, when the index dove 19%, occurred as the US-China trade war intensified and interest rates mounted. The post-war corrections count is 29, with the market down an average 14%, Guggenheim says.

Because of their short duration, the year when corrections take place very often is positive overall. Since 1974, the S&P 500 has increased an average of around 8% one month after a market correction bottom and more than 24% one year later, the Schwab Center for Financial Research finds.

Crashes are downturns of more than 20%. They’re almost always the prelude to a recession. Financial casualties are fierce, as the 2008 demise of venerated Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers shows. Depending on their severity, crashes can last from 11 to 23 months and take up to a maximum five years to climb back. The market’s worst crash came in 1929, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 70% until its July 1932 trough. The damage was bad enough that the Dow took 25 years, until 1954, to return to its 1929 level.

Crashes typically are born of deep economic crises, often global in scope, such as the 2008 sub-prime mortgage debacle (the S&P 500 fell 57% then) or the pandemic shutdowns (off 34%). The intriguing epilogue to the 2020 crash was that the market recovered very rapidly, hitting new highs, thanks chiefly to a bounteous government stimulus. Since 1946, there have been 12 crashes, with average losses around 35%, and the market can take up to four years to recover.

Market debacles are as inevitable as heat waves. As long as you can afford to ride out the worst times, you can emerge intact or even ahead. After all, even Dante does eventually manage to escape from hell.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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