本周,整个华尔街都在问一个问题:美联储何时开始加息?
为了寻找答案,所有人都将目光投向了美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)在12月15日的会议。当日,美联储结束了为期两天的会议,发表声明称,将加快缩减债券购买规模,并预计在2022年加息三次,以控制通货膨胀的速度。
那么这对股市投资者来说意味着什么?
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师发现,自1955年以来共有13个独立的加息周期,平均持续时间不到两年。根据他们的研究,按日线看,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)平均价格在美联储“加息周期第一年通常都会出现稳健的增长,365天后的平均回报率为+7.7%”。德意志银行的分析师在12月13日的报告中写道。
然而,“这一水平在加息周期253天之后首次见顶,直到452天之后才再次被突破,而且甚至到了第712天,回报率依然低于其在第253天的水平。”
德意志银行的分析师称,这一结果“是上述13个加息周期的平均值,从加息周期开始9至10个月之后,标准普尔500指数有一年多没有出现正回报率”(重点强调)。然而上表还显示:“随后,该指数在加息开始两年后开始增长。”
换句话说,至少从历史上看,加息对股市的许多负面影响可能被推迟了,在开始加息后,股市可能会持续一段时间的上行趋势。
包括LPL Financial的瑞安·德特里克在内的策略师认为,“我们经历的这次经济衰退对于大多数人来说都是生平仅见,而且我们依然处于恢复初期”,他最近对《财富》杂志说,因此美联储依然得“谨慎一点”,并指出2022年三次加息次数可能太多了。他认为:“美联储”在12月15日“发表的声明将成为投资者的强心剂。”然而,有人认为牛市在明年将得以延续,不过其上升通道可能会更加陡峭,德特里克也持有同样的想法。
其他人,像 Ally Invest的首席市场与资金策略师林德赛·贝尔则认为,“小步慢跑式的加息很少会对经济增长带来负面影响。”她在最近的纪要中写道,此举会创造一个能够让股票保持上涨势头的环境。
总的来说,德意志银行的分析师认为,“如果我们相信历史经验,当美联储首次加息时,可能在2022年[上半年],那么加息举措将在后续的两三年中对经济和金融市场带来影响。”他们写道,很明显,“这一次是不同的,而且这一次的周期完全不同于我们之前所经历的任何周期。然而,每一个周期都有所不同,但我们从历史分析中发现了一个不容忽视的明显趋势。”(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
本周,整个华尔街都在问一个问题:美联储何时开始加息?
为了寻找答案,所有人都将目光投向了美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)在12月15日的会议。当日,美联储结束了为期两天的会议,发表声明称,将加快缩减债券购买规模,并预计在2022年加息三次,以控制通货膨胀的速度。
那么这对股市投资者来说意味着什么?
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师发现,自1955年以来共有13个独立的加息周期,平均持续时间不到两年。根据他们的研究,按日线看,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)平均价格在美联储“加息周期第一年通常都会出现稳健的增长,365天后的平均回报率为+7.7%”。德意志银行的分析师在12月13日的报告中写道。
然而,“这一水平在加息周期253天之后首次见顶,直到452天之后才再次被突破,而且甚至到了第712天,回报率依然低于其在第253天的水平。”
德意志银行的分析师称,这一结果“是上述13个加息周期的平均值,从加息周期开始9至10个月之后,标准普尔500指数有一年多没有出现正回报率”(重点强调)。然而上表还显示:“随后,该指数在加息开始两年后开始增长。”
换句话说,至少从历史上看,加息对股市的许多负面影响可能被推迟了,在开始加息后,股市可能会持续一段时间的上行趋势。
包括LPL Financial的瑞安·德特里克在内的策略师认为,“我们经历的这次经济衰退对于大多数人来说都是生平仅见,而且我们依然处于恢复初期”,他最近对《财富》杂志说,因此美联储依然得“谨慎一点”,并指出2022年三次加息次数可能太多了。他认为:“美联储”在12月15日“发表的声明将成为投资者的强心剂。”然而,有人认为牛市在明年将得以延续,不过其上升通道可能会更加陡峭,德特里克也持有同样的想法。
其他人,像 Ally Invest的首席市场与资金策略师林德赛·贝尔则认为,“小步慢跑式的加息很少会对经济增长带来负面影响。”她在最近的纪要中写道,此举会创造一个能够让股票保持上涨势头的环境。
总的来说,德意志银行的分析师认为,“如果我们相信历史经验,当美联储首次加息时,可能在2022年[上半年],那么加息举措将在后续的两三年中对经济和金融市场带来影响。”他们写道,很明显,“这一次是不同的,而且这一次的周期完全不同于我们之前所经历的任何周期。然而,每一个周期都有所不同,但我们从历史分析中发现了一个不容忽视的明显趋势。”(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
There's one big question hovering over the Street this week: When will the Federal Reserve start hiking interest rates?
In search of that answer, all eyes are focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, when the Fed could indicate it might begin hiking interest rates next year to combat inflation, which is hovering near 40-year highs.
What could that mean for stock investors?
Analysts at Deutsche Bank identified 13 separate hiking cycles since 1955, which lasted an average of under two years. And according to their research, which examined the average price performance of the S&P 500 on a daily basis, "there tends to be solid growth in the first year of the hiking cycle, with an average return of +7.7% after 365 days," the analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a December 13 report.
However, "after the initial peak on day 253 after the tightening cycle, it’s not until day 452 that this level is exceeded again, and even on day 712 it’s still trading beneath its level on day 253," they wrote (see Deutsche Bank's chart below).
The upshot, according to the Deutsche Bank analysts, is "on average over those 13 hiking cycles, the S&P 500 goes a period of over a year without a positive return from 9-10 months after the start of the hiking cycle" (emphasis added). Still, as the chart also shows, "the index then commences its advance 2 years after the tightening commences."
In other words, it seems much of the negative effects on stocks, at least historically, may be delayed, and that the market could continue on an upward trend for some time after hiking starts.
Strategists like Ryan Detrick at LPL Financial suggest "we're still in an early recovery off of the worst recession we've seen in most people's lifetimes," so the Fed still needs to be "a little cautious," adding that three rate hikes in 2022 "is probably one too many," he recently told Fortune. "What the Fed says" on Wednesday is "gonna be a big driver" for investors, he argued. Still, Detrick is among those who think the bull market can continue next year, though likely on something of a "choppier" path.
Others like Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest, believe that "small, gradual rate hikes rarely upset economic growth. That creates an environment in which stocks can continue to perform well," she wrote in a recent note.
Overall, the Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that "if history is to be believed, when the Fed first hikes, likely in [the first half of] 2022, it will have an effect on the economy and financial markets over the subsequent two to three years." Clearly, "this time could be different and this is a very unusual cycle to any we’ve seen through history," they wrote, but that "every cycle is different and yet clear trends have emerged from our historical analysis that shouldn’t be ignored."