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什么最能抵抗通胀?股票和大宗商品优于比特币和黄金

Declan Harty
2021-12-21

黄金和比特币是自2013年以来最糟糕的两种通胀对冲工具。

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长期以来,人们想当然地认为存在风险资产和安全的对冲工具。但如果风险资产本身就是最安全的对冲工具呢?

《财富》杂志此前曾经报道,比特币(Bitcoin)在过去几个月的波动让人们开始质疑它能否有效对冲通胀,正如波士顿学院的金融学教授伦纳德·科斯托夫斯基向《财富》杂志表示,特别是考虑到比特币主要与投机交易有关,它是一种高度波动的资产。科斯托夫斯基称,仅在2021年,比特币的价格就有13天的涨跌幅度超过10%。“所以如果认为因为去年损失了7%就不想继续持有美元的人会愿意持有比特币,这种想法匪夷所思,因为比特币一天就可以(而且经常)亏掉这么多。”科斯托夫斯基在12月13日的博客中写道。

如果深入了解科斯托夫斯基的研究,就会有一个惊人的发现。

科斯托夫斯基的一项分析发现,黄金和比特币是自2013年以来最糟糕的两种通胀对冲工具。

科斯托夫斯基教授将美国通货膨胀保值债券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)作为投资者预测通胀率走向的指标,对各类资产的每日价格与投资者对通胀预期变化的相关性进行了研究。换句话说,当投资者认为通胀即将到来时,上涨可能性最高的资产具有最高的相关性。2021年,比特币与预期通胀的日相关性为0.08,股票的日相关性为0.24。黄金与房地产的相关性为0.12。而2021年大宗商品的相关性为0.45,荣登榜首。

科斯托夫斯基此前在电话中告诉《财富》杂志:“为了保证资产安全,我更愿意把钱放在亚马逊(Amazon)股票里,而不是比特币上。”

一段时间以来,华尔街逐渐意识到把黄金作为通胀对冲工具的谬误之处。

黄金首次获得通胀对冲工具的称号要追溯到20世纪70年代,当时贵金属及其相关资产价值持续飙升。晨星(Morningstar)的投资组合策略师艾米·阿诺特在2020年整理的数据显示,从1973年到1979年,伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)的黄金价格的年化回报率为31.77%。但自那以后,它作为通胀对冲工具的光彩早已不复从前。从1980年到1984年,其年化回报率为-10.06%。1988年至1991年,伦敦金银市场协会的黄金价格的年化回报率再次转负,这次是-7.58%。截至目前,2021年黄金价格下跌约0.6%至每盎司1766.35美元。

硬币的另一面是比特币,从很多方面来看,比特币现在还太年轻、太不稳定,不足以成为可靠的通胀对冲工具。自11月10日美国劳工部(Labor Department)发布数据显示消费者价格指数已经达到1990年之后的最高水平以来,这种所谓的数字黄金已经抛售逾30%。

最近的股市之所以能够成为对冲通胀的好工具,部分原因可能在于美联储(Federal Reserve)和美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔以空前的透明度向公众公开了该机构的想法。资产管理巨头先锋集团(Vanguard)旗下的量化股权集团(Quantitative Equity Group)的助理投资组合经理苏·王(音译)在该公司网站9月的一篇博文中说,股票历来“对预期外的通胀又爱又恨”。但是,在整个新冠疫情期间,美联储其实一直在告诉投资者其对通胀的想法以及未来走向。

大宗商品作为对冲通胀的工具有着更可靠的记录。先锋的苏·王牵头的研究发现,过去10年,大宗商品的通货膨胀贝塔系数在7到9之间,根据这篇博文,这意味着,如果预期外的通货膨胀率上升1%,大宗商品的价值就可能会上涨7%到9%。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

长期以来,人们想当然地认为存在风险资产和安全的对冲工具。但如果风险资产本身就是最安全的对冲工具呢?

《财富》杂志此前曾经报道,比特币(Bitcoin)在过去几个月的波动让人们开始质疑它能否有效对冲通胀,正如波士顿学院的金融学教授伦纳德·科斯托夫斯基向《财富》杂志表示,特别是考虑到比特币主要与投机交易有关,它是一种高度波动的资产。科斯托夫斯基称,仅在2021年,比特币的价格就有13天的涨跌幅度超过10%。“所以如果认为因为去年损失了7%就不想继续持有美元的人会愿意持有比特币,这种想法匪夷所思,因为比特币一天就可以(而且经常)亏掉这么多。”科斯托夫斯基在12月13日的博客中写道。

如果深入了解科斯托夫斯基的研究,就会有一个惊人的发现。

科斯托夫斯基的一项分析发现,黄金和比特币是自2013年以来最糟糕的两种通胀对冲工具。

科斯托夫斯基教授将美国通货膨胀保值债券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)作为投资者预测通胀率走向的指标,对各类资产的每日价格与投资者对通胀预期变化的相关性进行了研究。换句话说,当投资者认为通胀即将到来时,上涨可能性最高的资产具有最高的相关性。2021年,比特币与预期通胀的日相关性为0.08,股票的日相关性为0.24。黄金与房地产的相关性为0.12。而2021年大宗商品的相关性为0.45,荣登榜首。

科斯托夫斯基此前在电话中告诉《财富》杂志:“为了保证资产安全,我更愿意把钱放在亚马逊(Amazon)股票里,而不是比特币上。”

一段时间以来,华尔街逐渐意识到把黄金作为通胀对冲工具的谬误之处。

黄金首次获得通胀对冲工具的称号要追溯到20世纪70年代,当时贵金属及其相关资产价值持续飙升。晨星(Morningstar)的投资组合策略师艾米·阿诺特在2020年整理的数据显示,从1973年到1979年,伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)的黄金价格的年化回报率为31.77%。但自那以后,它作为通胀对冲工具的光彩早已不复从前。从1980年到1984年,其年化回报率为-10.06%。1988年至1991年,伦敦金银市场协会的黄金价格的年化回报率再次转负,这次是-7.58%。截至目前,2021年黄金价格下跌约0.6%至每盎司1766.35美元。

硬币的另一面是比特币,从很多方面来看,比特币现在还太年轻、太不稳定,不足以成为可靠的通胀对冲工具。自11月10日美国劳工部(Labor Department)发布数据显示消费者价格指数已经达到1990年之后的最高水平以来,这种所谓的数字黄金已经抛售逾30%。

最近的股市之所以能够成为对冲通胀的好工具,部分原因可能在于美联储(Federal Reserve)和美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔以空前的透明度向公众公开了该机构的想法。资产管理巨头先锋集团(Vanguard)旗下的量化股权集团(Quantitative Equity Group)的助理投资组合经理苏·王(音译)在该公司网站9月的一篇博文中说,股票历来“对预期外的通胀又爱又恨”。但是,在整个新冠疫情期间,美联储其实一直在告诉投资者其对通胀的想法以及未来走向。

大宗商品作为对冲通胀的工具有着更可靠的记录。先锋的苏·王牵头的研究发现,过去10年,大宗商品的通货膨胀贝塔系数在7到9之间,根据这篇博文,这意味着,如果预期外的通货膨胀率上升1%,大宗商品的价值就可能会上涨7%到9%。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

It has long been taken for granted that there are risky assets and safe hedges. But what if the risky assets are the safest hedges?

As Fortune wrote previously, Bitcoin's volatile last few months has called into question its usefulness as a hedge against inflation, particularly due to the fact that it remains primarily tied to speculative trading, which makes it a highly volatile asset, as Boston College finance professor Leonard Kostovetsky told Fortune. There have been 13 days in 2021 alone where the price of Bitcoin has moved more than 10% in one direction, Kostovetsky says. “So it seems strange to think that a person who is worried about holding dollars because they lost 7% of their value over the last year would be comfortable holding Bitcoin which could (and often does) lose that much value in a single day,” Kostovetsky wrote in a Dec. 13 blog post.

Digging deeper into Kostovetsky's research shows a striking finding.

An analysis by Kostovetsky has found that gold and Bitcoin have been the two worst inflation hedges since 2013.

Using Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a proxy for where investors see inflation rates heading, the Boston College professor was able to study how assets' daily prices correlated with investors' changing expectations around inflation. In other words, the assets with the highest correlations are those that are most likely to rise when investors start to see inflation on the horizon. So, while Bitcoin had a daily correlation to expected inflation of 0.08 in 2021, stocks had a 0.24 correlation to expected inflation. Gold and real estate had correlations of 0.12. And commodities took the crown altogether with a correltion of 0.45 in 2021.

“If I wanted to keep my money safe, I’d rather be keeping it in Amazon stock than Bitcoin,” Kostovetsky previously told Fortune over the phone.

Wall Street has been waking up to the falsities that lie in the gold-as-an-inflation-hedge narrative for some time now.

Gold first earned its title as an inflation hedge back in the 1970s when the precious metal and any asset tied to it soared in value. Data put together by Morningstar portfolio strategiest Amy Arnott in 2020 show that from 1973 to 1979 the LBMA Gold Price posted an annualized return of 31.77%. But its shine as an inflation hedge has worn off considerably since. From 1980 to 1984, its annualized returns were a negative 10.06%. And between 1988 and 1991, the LBMA Gold Price posted negative annualized returns again, this time of 7.58%. Gold has fallen about 0.6% to $1,766.35 per ounce over the span of 2021, so far.

On the other side of the coin is Bitcoin, which, in many ways, is just too young and volatile today to be a reliable inflation hedge for investors. The so-called digital gold has sold off more than 30% since Nov. 10, the day when the Labor Department released data showing the consumer price index had reached its highest level since 1990.

Part of the reason why equities have proven to be a good inflation hedge as of late likely lies with the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell's unprecedented transparency with the public about the central bank's thinking. Equities have historically had a "love-hate relationship with unexpected inflation," Sue Wang, an assistant portfolio manager in Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group, said, according to a September blog post on the money management giant's website. But, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed has continually signaled its thoughts around inflation and where it is headed to investors.

Commodities have a more reliable track record as an inflation hedge. Research led by Wang at Vanguard found that commodities' inflation beta has sat between 7 and 9 over the last decade, suggesting, according to the blog post, that commodities would likely rise between 7% and 9% if unexpected inflation were to go up 1%.

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