放眼当今世界,一众亿万富翁和商界领袖都在提醒民众注意通货膨胀、1月股市暴跌和经济整体走势等问题。
但其中并没有大卫·鲁宾斯坦的身影。
作为私募巨头、亿万富豪以及凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)的联合创始人,鲁宾斯坦表示,美国经济前景良好。周二,他通过电视广播公开表示,美国民众可以放心,各种通胀论调普遍言过其实,担心经济即将因新冠疫情而陷入衰退纯属多余。他还表示,投资者不必担忧股市情况会恶化到何种程度。
“我不认为市场会出现那种足以导致经济进入衰退的巨幅调整。我完全不这么认为。”鲁宾斯坦在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时说。“我认为,相对于过去我们看到过的那种巨幅回调,此次调整还算温和。”
鲁宾斯坦旗下的凯雷集团是全球最大的私募基金公司之一,全球资产管理规模为3010亿美元。他还是个大慈善家,曾向哈佛和PBS等机构捐赠数百万美元。他曾担任卡特总统的高级顾问,亲身经历了当时的历史性通胀(面对1970年代的严重通胀,卡特总统的执政甚至都受到了一定影响。)
鲁宾斯坦表示,当前局势与美国在上世纪70年代滞胀危机中面临的情况并不相同。在谈及他担任卡特总统国内政策助理时面临的情境时,鲁宾斯坦表示“与现在不同,当时的通胀高达两位数,联邦基金利率也一路飙升到了20%的水平,这种情况不会再次出现”。
不过科技股却以一波令人大跌眼镜的暴跌拉开了新年的序幕,受此影响,标普指数在今年1月直线跌入调整区间,彼时,美联储(Federal Reserve)刚暗示其有意转向鹰派政策、择机加息。当前,通胀率正处于39年来的最高水平,消费者价格指数在2021年的涨幅也高达7%。
美联储还警告说,通胀高企或许不会是“短期”现象,也就是说,物价持续上涨的时长或将超过预期。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在去年12月的一次国会听证会上表示,“推动通胀上升的因素明年将继续存在。”
接受彭博社(Bloomberg)调查的各位经济学家预计,1月份的通胀率将达到7.3%。
诸多经济学家认为,经济将在未来遇到更多麻烦,对此,鲁宾斯坦并不买账。他表示,消费者价格指数的上涨是短期现象,他甚至认为通胀率将于年内回落到4%或5%的水平。
他说,美联储可能会在3月份加息25个基点,但不会在随后的每次会议上都进行加息。
疫情爆发以来,这已不是鲁宾斯坦首次对市场做出积极解读。2021年11月,在接受CNBC采访时他就曾经表示,当前的情况与上世纪70年代的通胀不可同日而语。他表示,如今,美国的工业更为多样化,工会不再占据主导地位,美国对进口石油的依赖程度也有所降低,经济结构与50年前已大不相同,因而抵御通胀威胁的能力也更强。
鲁宾斯坦表示,“未来一段时间”,通胀率将继续在2%(美联储的目标)以上运行,但到春季之后就会出现回落。
他说,市场似乎并不“过度担心”通胀问题。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
放眼当今世界,一众亿万富翁和商界领袖都在提醒民众注意通货膨胀、1月股市暴跌和经济整体走势等问题。
但其中并没有大卫·鲁宾斯坦的身影。
作为私募巨头、亿万富豪以及凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)的联合创始人,鲁宾斯坦表示,美国经济前景良好。周二,他通过电视广播公开表示,美国民众可以放心,各种通胀论调普遍言过其实,担心经济即将因新冠疫情而陷入衰退纯属多余。他还表示,投资者不必担忧股市情况会恶化到何种程度。
“我不认为市场会出现那种足以导致经济进入衰退的巨幅调整。我完全不这么认为。”鲁宾斯坦在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时说。“我认为,相对于过去我们看到过的那种巨幅回调,此次调整还算温和。”
鲁宾斯坦旗下的凯雷集团是全球最大的私募基金公司之一,全球资产管理规模为3010亿美元。他还是个大慈善家,曾向哈佛和PBS等机构捐赠数百万美元。他曾担任卡特总统的高级顾问,亲身经历了当时的历史性通胀(面对1970年代的严重通胀,卡特总统的执政甚至都受到了一定影响。)
鲁宾斯坦表示,当前局势与美国在上世纪70年代滞胀危机中面临的情况并不相同。在谈及他担任卡特总统国内政策助理时面临的情境时,鲁宾斯坦表示“与现在不同,当时的通胀高达两位数,联邦基金利率也一路飙升到了20%的水平,这种情况不会再次出现”。
不过科技股却以一波令人大跌眼镜的暴跌拉开了新年的序幕,受此影响,标普指数在今年1月直线跌入调整区间,彼时,美联储(Federal Reserve)刚暗示其有意转向鹰派政策、择机加息。当前,通胀率正处于39年来的最高水平,消费者价格指数在2021年的涨幅也高达7%。
美联储还警告说,通胀高企或许不会是“短期”现象,也就是说,物价持续上涨的时长或将超过预期。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在去年12月的一次国会听证会上表示,“推动通胀上升的因素明年将继续存在。”
接受彭博社(Bloomberg)调查的各位经济学家预计,1月份的通胀率将达到7.3%。
诸多经济学家认为,经济将在未来遇到更多麻烦,对此,鲁宾斯坦并不买账。他表示,消费者价格指数的上涨是短期现象,他甚至认为通胀率将于年内回落到4%或5%的水平。
他说,美联储可能会在3月份加息25个基点,但不会在随后的每次会议上都进行加息。
疫情爆发以来,这已不是鲁宾斯坦首次对市场做出积极解读。2021年11月,在接受CNBC采访时他就曾经表示,当前的情况与上世纪70年代的通胀不可同日而语。他表示,如今,美国的工业更为多样化,工会不再占据主导地位,美国对进口石油的依赖程度也有所降低,经济结构与50年前已大不相同,因而抵御通胀威胁的能力也更强。
鲁宾斯坦表示,“未来一段时间”,通胀率将继续在2%(美联储的目标)以上运行,但到春季之后就会出现回落。
他说,市场似乎并不“过度担心”通胀问题。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
A lot of billionaires and business leaders are sounding the alarm about inflation, the stock market's swoon in January, and the economy in general.
David Rubenstein isn't one of them.
The private equity billionaire and Carlyle Group cofounder says the economy will be just fine. He took to the airwaves on Tuesday to assure the American public that inflation talk is overblown and that fears of an imminent recession, propelled by COVID-19, are misguided. He also dismissed fears of how bad it's getting in the stock market.
"I don't see any big, gigantic market correction of the type that's going to push us into a recession. I don't see that at all," Rubenstein said on CNBC. "I think the market correction will be modest, relative to what we've seen in the past when you have a gigantic correction."
Rubenstein's Carlyle Group, one of the biggest private equity firms in the world, manages $301 billion globally. He's a major philanthropist, having donated millions to institutions such as Harvard and PBS. And he has had a front-row seat to historic inflation, serving as a top adviser to President Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was crippled by the Great Inflation of the 1970s.
This is not the same situation the U.S. faced during the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, said Rubenstein. "When I was in government, we had a different situation," he said, referencing his stint as Carter's deputy assistant for domestic policy. "Inflation was in double digits, Fed funds rate went up to 20%,” he said. “We're not looking at anything like that."
Still, tech stocks started the year with a shocking plunge, propelling the S&P into correction territory in January just as the Federal Reserve signaled its intention to hike interest rates at a hawkish clip. Inflation is at a 39-year high, as consumer prices jumped 7% in 2021.
The Fed also warned that it's time to retire the word “transitory" for inflation, meaning prices could be rising uncomfortably for longer than expected. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a congressional hearing in December that “factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year.”
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect a 7.3% rise in inflation for January.
Rubenstein bucked economists' predictions of more trouble ahead. Increases in the consumer price index are temporary, he said, and he even went so far as to say inflation would dip back to 4% or 5% this year.
The Fed, he said, will probably raise rates by 25 basis points in March, but it won’t raise them in every subsequent meeting.
This isn’t the first time during the pandemic Rubenstein has sung such a positive tune, either. In November 2021, he told CNBC that comparisons to 1970s-style inflation were incorrect. The structure of the economy is different today than it was 50 years ago, he said, and more resilient to threats of inflation. Industry is more diverse, unions aren’t as dominant, and there’s decreased reliance on foreign sources of oil.
Inflation would run above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s target, "for a while," Rubenstein said, but would come down by the spring.
The market, he said, doesn’t seem “unduly concerned” about inflation.