美国陷入高通胀已经整整一年了。
不论是房租、二手车价格还是肉价菜价,总之在美国,有关衣食住行的一切都在涨价,2021年,美国的通胀水平不断刷新纪录,本轮通胀被公认为近40年来最严重的一次。
在本轮通胀的背后,有一些客观原因是真实存在的,比如消费者的需求空前高涨,同时企业却广泛存在劳动力短缺和供应链不继的问题。除此之外,我们不禁也会想到另一个问题:是不是还有一些企业在以通胀为借口哄抬物价,借机发“国难财”呢?
持有这种看法的人不在少数,美国总统乔·拜登政府里的不少高官,包括一些消费者权益保护人士甚至一些经济学家都是这么认为的。例如马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦本月致信美国司法部(Department of Justice),敦促后者对一些涉嫌违反反垄断法和哄抬物价的企业采取措施。沃伦在信中指出:“美国的通胀已经达到几十年来的最高水平,这在相当程度上是企业的贪婪和反竞争行为造成的,联邦政府必须采取一切手段避免有人哄抬物价,为美国人民把物价降下来。”
最让普通消费者感到压力的,是食品和家庭用品价格的上涨。《财富》杂志的一项分析显示,在“《财富》美国500强”中上榜的28家食品与消费品制造商中,有半数企业的平均净利润率甚至较新冠疫情前有所上升。不过虽然它们的利润上涨了,却很难说这是不是与价格的上涨直接相关。
那么,这些企业真的在哄抬物价吗?它们是借疫情发“国难财”的奸商吗?首先需要强调的是,我们在本文中探讨的并不是法律问题,因为目前,美国在联邦层面尚无具体法律规范这种行为。
其次,股市是这种贪婪,投资者会“用脚投票”“口嫌体直”地回报上市公司的这种贪婪。不过股市毕竟不等同于经济本身,一个东西在技术层面合法,并不代表它就是好的。有些东西对投资者来说是好事,但很有可能对普通老百姓来说就是一件坏事。
什么是健康的利润?
首先需要说明一下,企业追逐健康的利润,与哄抬物价甚至借疫情之机不当得利并不是一回事。单纯地涨价也并不构成哄抬物价。
奥本大学哈伯特商学院(Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business)的供应链管理系主任格伦·里奇对《财富》杂志表示:“不知道出于什么原因,现在企业的利润变得更高了。”他认为,这既有可能是出于企业经营的必要,但也有可能是出于企业高管的“机会主义行为”。
里奇指出,在讨论涨价的问题时,很多人会将投机倒把与哄抬物价混为一谈,但它们实际上是两码事。投机倒把主要是指企业试图赚取超量或不公平利润的行为。
哄抬物价是指销售者将商品或服务的价格提升到远高于合理或公平的水平。这种情况经常发生在自然灾害之后,比如某地遭遇了飓风灾害,当地的商家就有可能哄抬生物必需品的价格。
不过,要想精准评判很多哄抬物价行为是不是由企业策划的,这却是一件很困难的事情,因为物价受到很多因素影响,而且制造商通常不会直接制定零售价格。一般来说,制造商只会给出一个建议零售价,零售商可以接受,也可以不接受。晨星公司(Morningstar)的消费板块证券研究主管埃林·拉什指出:“光看这些干巴巴的数字,并不一定能够反映故事的全貌。”
拉什在接受《财富》杂志采访时称:“从历史上看,大多数时候,企业在涨价时都会明确表示,这不是为了抵消通胀造成的全部成本,而是为了抵消部分成本。”以调味料生产商味好美(McCormick & Company)为例,该公司也在2021年上调了价格。
味好美公司的首席执行官劳伦斯·库兹尤斯在今年1月的财报会议上说:“为了抵消部分成本的上涨,我们去年在适当时机提高了价格。随着成本继续加速上涨,我们将在2022年再次适时提价。”
另外,也不是每家公司在涨价后都可以获得更高的利润。比如“《财富》美国500强”上榜企业金佰利公司(Kimberly Clark)的首席执行官迈克尔·苏在近期的财报会议上指出,金佰利公司已经实施了“数轮”的“重大定价行动”。
由Datasembly公司为《财富》杂志进行的一项分析显示,2021年,金佰利公司生产的舒洁(Kleenex)纸巾和好奇(Huggies Little Snugglers)纸尿裤的价格分别上涨了16.4%和9.4%。但根据《财富》杂志的分析,即便是在涨价之后,目前金伯利的利润率仍然只有9.4%,低于新冠疫情以前的水平。
涨价
毫无疑问,现在不光是美国企业,就连很多外国公司也在全面涨价。目前不光是消费者物价指数(CPI)这种基准指数在上涨,各大公司也是喊涨声一片。
有些公司坦承,它们之所以被迫提价,是因为自身成本上涨得过高了。比如“《财富》美国500强”上榜的零食和饮料公司亿滋国际(Mondelez)今年1月宣布要将产品价格上涨6%至7%。亿滋国际的首席执行官德克·范迪普特在1月的财报会议上表示:“我们已经大幅上调了产品价格,以确保能够保价有效对冲大宗商品的通胀风险,另外我们也在持续提升生产率指标。”他也没有排除今年晚些时候会进一步涨价的可能。
宝洁公司(P&G)表示,该公司之所以涨价,主要是为了抵消供应链风险,以及下步有可能会面临的汇率风险。宝洁公司的首席财务官安德烈·舒尔滕在1月的财报会议上称:“我们将通过涨价和生产环节中的节约来抵消一部分成本压力。”宝洁公司的产品包括剃须刀、尿布和洗衣粉等各种日用品。舒尔滕指出,宝洁在美国销售的所有产品类别都将涨价。这也是宝洁公司自2019年春季以来实施的最大规模的涨价。
宝洁公司的财报显示,2021年第4季度(截至12月31日),该公司的销售额较上年同期增长了6%,这一定程度上可能也是由于涨价造成的。
实际上,到目前为止,美国很多大型食品和消费品生产商都已经实施了涨价。受《财富》杂志委托,Datasembly公司对2021年1月至2022年1月间“《财富》美国500强”上榜食品和消费品企业生产的18种主要产品的全美平均售价进行了调查,结果发现,有11种产品的价格涨幅已经超过了通胀水平。
调查显示,在美国的主要食品与消费品生产企业中,JBS、家乐氏(Kellogg)、金佰利和泰森食品(Tyson Foods)等,其部分产品的涨价幅度均超过了今年1月美国的通胀幅度(7.5%)。
该调查显示,在被调查的产品中,涨价幅度最高的是有JBS公司品牌认证的8盎司安格斯牛排(Angus Beef),其去年的涨价幅度达到了34%。泰森食品的一款无骨鸡肉的价格也从2021年1月的6.62美元上涨到上个月的8.39美元,涨幅达到26.7%。相比之下,今年1月发布的CPI指数显示,2021年美国的牛肉价格上涨了16%,鸡肉价格上涨了10.3%。
另外,其中一些公司的利润率也确实比新冠疫情前更高了。在“《财富》美国500强”的上榜食品和消费品制造商中,有13家公司2021年的平均利润高于2019年,其中11家公司的利润增幅高于通胀率。不过这也未必表明它们一定有投机牟利行为。
比如,据《财富》杂志调查,酒精饮料巨头摩森康胜(Molson Coors)和日用品龙头企业宝洁公司有5款产品的提价幅度基本与通胀水平一致,甚至略低于通胀率。但摩森康胜和宝洁去年的利润率却比新冠疫情前的水平翻了一番。这两家公司的利润上涨,有可能与销量上涨或者与削减开支有关,不过也有可能与售价的小幅上涨有关。
泰森食品和JBS的利润率也出现了显著的增长——虽然涨幅不算业界最高,但也相当可观。如前所述,2021年,它们的一些关键产品的价格出现了大幅上涨。家乐氏的利润率也有一定上涨,而且它旗下的几款产品的售价涨幅也超过了通胀率。
宝洁公司于2月18日对《财富》杂志指出,该公司的生产成本近来持续上升,最近两个季度,它的大宗商品成本和运输成本环比上涨了13亿美元(税后成本)。宝洁公司发言人称:“这是近20年来我们看到的最大幅度的成本上涨,虽然我们需要转嫁部分成本,但我们也将同时推动各方面的创新,以继续为消费者带来巨大价值。”
这位发言人还表示,宝洁公司专注于“为消费者提供最佳性能的优异产品,从而最终为消费者带去价值。”但他并未直接评论公司的利润率为何变高的问题。
摩森康胜和ADM公司拒绝就此发表评论。JBS公司则未回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
困难是真实存在的
穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)的零售与消费品部高级副总裁裁琳达·蒙塔格指出,目前,几乎每家公司都面临着供应链卡脖子、“用工荒”和大宗商品成本上涨的问题,这些问题导致了企业运营预算上涨、利润率下降。而且就算企业宣布涨价,从涨价到利润上涨之间,往往也还有一个时间差。
比如据拉什介绍,上个季度宝洁公司公布的毛利率是49.11%。其中,通胀因素对公司利润的影响达到了负4%,运费上涨对利润的影响也有负0.6%。
家乐氏公司的发言人克里斯·巴纳指出,目前,全球对大宗商品的需求持续增加,而供应却相对紧张,这种供需失衡的影响是不容忽视的。“这导致食用油、小麦、玉米、大米、纸张和硬纸板等食品生产销售所需的原材料价格包括运输成本创下历史新高。”同时巴纳也对《财富》杂志表示:“我们这个行业对哄抬物价和网络诈骗等违法欺诈行为是零容忍的。”
美国商会(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)的常务副会长兼首席政策官尼尔·布拉德利于今年1月在一份声明中表示:“与许多其他产品一样,推动肉类价格上涨的因素包括需求上升、疫情导致的供应链问题,以及投入成本上升等等,特别是能源和劳动力成本的上升。”
普渡大学(Purdue University)的农业经济学系主任杰森·卢斯克指出,2021年,用于饲养牲畜的谷物和油籽价格有所上涨,这反过来也推高了牲畜和家禽的饲养成本。
全美鸡肉协会(National Chicken Council)的发言人汤姆·休珀指出,尽管玉米、大豆、汽油、包装和运输成本都上涨了至少两位数,但美国鸡肉价格的涨幅却仅仅略高于总体通胀率(今年1月发布的2021年美国鸡肉价格增幅为10.3%,而美国的总体通胀率为7.5%)。
泰森食品的发言人加里·米克尔森在回答《财富》杂志关于涨价和利润的问题时称:“经济学家和行业分析师都已经证明,目前肉类价格的上涨,是供应链受限,以及粮食、劳动力、能源等投入成本上涨,加上消费者需求强劲共同作用的直接结果。”
穆迪投资者服务公司的零售与消费品部高级副总裁裁琳达·蒙塔格认为:“问题的症结并非是有些公司想发‘国难财’。”虽然目前有些公司的利润率有所上升,但这种情形未必会一直持续下去。例如,一些公司利润率上升的原因,可能是由于在新冠疫情期间砍掉了一些营销预算,或者是销量增加了。还有一些公司加大了生产和销售速度,这也有助于缓冲运营成本上升带来的影响。
“通胀是真实存在的。”蒙塔格认为,任何声称企业涨价是为了哄抬物价、投机倒把的人都是在“信口胡说”。
是“体制问题”在鼓励企业涨价?
尽管通胀问题引发了极大担忧,但去年美国经济的增长率仍然达到了5.7%——或许这其中还有通胀的功劳。这不禁令人思考,对于40年来早已习惯了低通胀和全球化的美国来说,目前这种高需求、高就业率甚至是高通胀的环境,是否才是经济增长真正应有的样子?当然,美国经济目前还在从新冠疫情泥潭中复苏的路上,但自20世纪中叶以来,美国还没有经历过像这样的真正的经济繁荣。而在那一次的繁荣期,美国也遭遇了高通胀问题。
也有一些专家认为,目前美国的高通胀并不是经济健康增长的表现,甚至也不是为了抵消运营成本的上涨,而是放松监管和缺乏竞争的结果。
美国前劳工部长、经济学家罗伯特·赖克最近就这个话题撰文称:“如果市场是具有竞争性的,企业就会压低价格,以防止竞争对手抢走顾客。”
拜登政府最近也点名批评一些行业缺乏竞争,并指出这有可能导致成本上升。美国四大肉制品公司嘉吉(Cargill)、JBS、国家牛肉包装公司(National Beef Packing)和泰森食品就在被点名之列,这四家公司控制了美国猪肉、牛肉和鸡肉市场的大半壁江山。美国财政部(Treasury Department)近期也发布了一份63页的报告,指出百威英博公司(nheuser-Busch InBev)和摩森康胜公司控制了美国啤酒市场65%的收入。因此有批评人士指出,这些公司之所以能够随心所欲地涨价,就是因为消费者没有太多的品牌和产品可以选择。
今年1月,美国总统拜登曾经指出:“我们在过去几十年里看到的情况是,竞争越来越少,集中程度越来越高,这实际上阻碍了经济的发展,很多行业都是由少数几个大公司主导着整个市场。”
不过,北美肉类协会(North American Meat Institute)的会长兼首席执行官朱莉·安娜·波茨并不这样认为。她表示,美国的肉类行业并不像拜登政府描述的那样集中化,25年来,美国肉类市场的结构基本上没有变化。“如果是集中化导致了近期肉禽产品价格上涨,那么5年前或者10年前,集中化为什么没有导致肉禽产品价格上涨呢?”美国四大肉制品公司都是该协会的会员,不过它们并未专门对《财富》杂志就拜登政府的有关言论作出评论。
美国啤酒协会(Beer Institute)的会长兼首席执行官吉姆·麦克格里维也指出,美国财政部的报告“曲解了繁荣发展中的美国啤酒产业。”他指出,自2010年以来,美国新注册的啤酒厂超过1万家。“消费者也受益于越来越多的啤酒厂和进口啤酒商,他们有了比以往任何时候更多的选择。”百威英博和摩森康胜都是美国啤酒协会的会员,不过他们也未对拜登政府的有关言论进行评论。
据《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)报道,即使在白宫内部,也有一些经济学家反对政府将通胀归咎于企业。
蒙塔格指出,实际上,食品和消费品领域是存在着“大量激烈的竞争”的。很多上市公司不仅互为竞争对手,还要面临着很多非上市公司的竞争。据美国自有品牌制造商协会(Private Label Manufacturers Association)统计,从销售额上看,美国零售店的门店自有品牌大约占据了市场的17.7%;从销量上看,则占据了市场的19.6%。
还有一些人认为,当前的物价上涨是不合理的。比如关注经济问题的激进社会组织Groundwork Collaborative的首席经济学家拉金·马布德对《财富》杂志表示,她认为当前企业纷纷涨价的现状“非常不合理”,理由是首席执行官和企业高管们能够任意向消费者涨价,但美国的普通老百姓却毫无选择,只能被迫支付更高的价格——但与此同时,这些企业却在分更高的红利给股东。
大公司通过涨价获得了创纪录的利润,首席执行官们悄悄说了大实话——他们很乐意推高通胀。
美国家庭支付了更高的物价,企业高管获得了更丰厚的奖金。你们自己看看高管们是怎么说的吧。
——伊丽莎白·沃伦(@SenWarren),2022年1月15日
“这些大公司靠刮勉强度日的底层人的油水而大赚特赚,这是不合理的,不但不合理,也对我们的经济有害。只有在我们所有人都过得好的时候,我们的经济才会好——而不是在只有这些大企业过得好的时候。”马布德说道。
她还补充说:“毫无疑问,企业是受利润驱使的。企业究竟赚多少利润才合适,这基本上是一个道德问题。不过现在有一个显然非常不合理的现象,那就是投资者和股东都在靠侵蚀普通消费者的利益来赚钱。”
另一方面,那些大肆宣扬自己涨价了的上市公司也的确在股市上获得了丰厚回报。彭博社(Bloomberg)最近的一篇报道显示,在近一个财季中,这些上市公司在宣布产品涨价后,其股价几乎都是应声上涨。比如连锁餐饮企业Chipotle在2021年12月宣布涨价4%后,其股价已经上涨了10%。而清洁用品高乐氏(Clorox)的涨价行为则低调得多,基本上都是悄悄进行的,高乐氏还在财报会议上警告投资者,未来几年哪些因素有可能影响公司的利润率。结果该公司的股价直接暴跌14%。
马布德指出,这些大企业一家接着一家地宣布涨价,这与投资者的怂恿不无关系。有些企业看到别人涨后利润率上去了,自己也就跟着涨价,而且投资者也要求它们这样做。
马布德认为:“这样一来,就算通胀消失了,企业投机牟利的倾向也会长期存在。”
涨价的长期成本
绝大多数的美国人都意识到,当前的高通胀是有问题的。哈里斯民调机构(Harris Poll)的数据显示,90%的美国人注意到,近几个月他们经常购买的商品价格有所上涨。有44%的美国成年人表示,通胀目前是他们最担心的问题。
不过有研究显示,消费者在紧急情况下,对物价上涨的容忍度会有所提升。比如哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的研究人员最近发表的一篇论文显示,在美国爆发新冠疫情之初,只有一小半美国消费者认为洗手液的价格上涨是不合理的。该论文的合著者克里斯托弗·布卡富斯科向《财富》杂志指出:“消费者对‘合理’的标准是相当灵活的。人们对‘合理’与否的看法,在很大程度上取决于具体情况。”
至于消费者会不会觉得高通胀是美国市场机制的结构性弊病导致的,以及消费是否愿意继续容忍这种高通胀,目前我们尚不清楚。不过一旦消费者的忍耐到了极限,那么一直追求和纵容涨价的企业以及政客,或许都要承受一波民意的强烈反弹。
当前这轮涨价也是有实际成本的。除了一些自带波动性的大宗商品,有些产品的价格涨上来之后,未来即便供给压力减轻了,它的价格也不容易再降下去了,例如一瓶汽水或者一支牙刷。所以从长远来看,消费者将长期承受更高的价格。
马布德说:“有时我们谈论通胀,就像谈论一个与我们无关的问题一样。但事实上,我们之所以非常关注通胀问题,是因为它对我们有实实在在的影响。物价的上涨真的会给弱势群体造成非常非常沉重的打击。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
美国陷入高通胀已经整整一年了。
不论是房租、二手车价格还是肉价菜价,总之在美国,有关衣食住行的一切都在涨价,2021年,美国的通胀水平不断刷新纪录,本轮通胀被公认为近40年来最严重的一次。
在本轮通胀的背后,有一些客观原因是真实存在的,比如消费者的需求空前高涨,同时企业却广泛存在劳动力短缺和供应链不继的问题。除此之外,我们不禁也会想到另一个问题:是不是还有一些企业在以通胀为借口哄抬物价,借机发“国难财”呢?
持有这种看法的人不在少数,美国总统乔·拜登政府里的不少高官,包括一些消费者权益保护人士甚至一些经济学家都是这么认为的。例如马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦本月致信美国司法部(Department of Justice),敦促后者对一些涉嫌违反反垄断法和哄抬物价的企业采取措施。沃伦在信中指出:“美国的通胀已经达到几十年来的最高水平,这在相当程度上是企业的贪婪和反竞争行为造成的,联邦政府必须采取一切手段避免有人哄抬物价,为美国人民把物价降下来。”
最让普通消费者感到压力的,是食品和家庭用品价格的上涨。《财富》杂志的一项分析显示,在“《财富》美国500强”中上榜的28家食品与消费品制造商中,有半数企业的平均净利润率甚至较新冠疫情前有所上升。不过虽然它们的利润上涨了,却很难说这是不是与价格的上涨直接相关。
那么,这些企业真的在哄抬物价吗?它们是借疫情发“国难财”的奸商吗?首先需要强调的是,我们在本文中探讨的并不是法律问题,因为目前,美国在联邦层面尚无具体法律规范这种行为。
其次,股市是这种贪婪,投资者会“用脚投票”“口嫌体直”地回报上市公司的这种贪婪。不过股市毕竟不等同于经济本身,一个东西在技术层面合法,并不代表它就是好的。有些东西对投资者来说是好事,但很有可能对普通老百姓来说就是一件坏事。
什么是健康的利润?
首先需要说明一下,企业追逐健康的利润,与哄抬物价甚至借疫情之机不当得利并不是一回事。单纯地涨价也并不构成哄抬物价。
奥本大学哈伯特商学院(Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business)的供应链管理系主任格伦·里奇对《财富》杂志表示:“不知道出于什么原因,现在企业的利润变得更高了。”他认为,这既有可能是出于企业经营的必要,但也有可能是出于企业高管的“机会主义行为”。
里奇指出,在讨论涨价的问题时,很多人会将投机倒把与哄抬物价混为一谈,但它们实际上是两码事。投机倒把主要是指企业试图赚取超量或不公平利润的行为。
哄抬物价是指销售者将商品或服务的价格提升到远高于合理或公平的水平。这种情况经常发生在自然灾害之后,比如某地遭遇了飓风灾害,当地的商家就有可能哄抬生物必需品的价格。
不过,要想精准评判很多哄抬物价行为是不是由企业策划的,这却是一件很困难的事情,因为物价受到很多因素影响,而且制造商通常不会直接制定零售价格。一般来说,制造商只会给出一个建议零售价,零售商可以接受,也可以不接受。晨星公司(Morningstar)的消费板块证券研究主管埃林·拉什指出:“光看这些干巴巴的数字,并不一定能够反映故事的全貌。”
拉什在接受《财富》杂志采访时称:“从历史上看,大多数时候,企业在涨价时都会明确表示,这不是为了抵消通胀造成的全部成本,而是为了抵消部分成本。”以调味料生产商味好美(McCormick & Company)为例,该公司也在2021年上调了价格。
味好美公司的首席执行官劳伦斯·库兹尤斯在今年1月的财报会议上说:“为了抵消部分成本的上涨,我们去年在适当时机提高了价格。随着成本继续加速上涨,我们将在2022年再次适时提价。”
另外,也不是每家公司在涨价后都可以获得更高的利润。比如“《财富》美国500强”上榜企业金佰利公司(Kimberly Clark)的首席执行官迈克尔·苏在近期的财报会议上指出,金佰利公司已经实施了“数轮”的“重大定价行动”。
由Datasembly公司为《财富》杂志进行的一项分析显示,2021年,金佰利公司生产的舒洁(Kleenex)纸巾和好奇(Huggies Little Snugglers)纸尿裤的价格分别上涨了16.4%和9.4%。但根据《财富》杂志的分析,即便是在涨价之后,目前金伯利的利润率仍然只有9.4%,低于新冠疫情以前的水平。
涨价
毫无疑问,现在不光是美国企业,就连很多外国公司也在全面涨价。目前不光是消费者物价指数(CPI)这种基准指数在上涨,各大公司也是喊涨声一片。
有些公司坦承,它们之所以被迫提价,是因为自身成本上涨得过高了。比如“《财富》美国500强”上榜的零食和饮料公司亿滋国际(Mondelez)今年1月宣布要将产品价格上涨6%至7%。亿滋国际的首席执行官德克·范迪普特在1月的财报会议上表示:“我们已经大幅上调了产品价格,以确保能够保价有效对冲大宗商品的通胀风险,另外我们也在持续提升生产率指标。”他也没有排除今年晚些时候会进一步涨价的可能。
宝洁公司(P&G)表示,该公司之所以涨价,主要是为了抵消供应链风险,以及下步有可能会面临的汇率风险。宝洁公司的首席财务官安德烈·舒尔滕在1月的财报会议上称:“我们将通过涨价和生产环节中的节约来抵消一部分成本压力。”宝洁公司的产品包括剃须刀、尿布和洗衣粉等各种日用品。舒尔滕指出,宝洁在美国销售的所有产品类别都将涨价。这也是宝洁公司自2019年春季以来实施的最大规模的涨价。
宝洁公司的财报显示,2021年第4季度(截至12月31日),该公司的销售额较上年同期增长了6%,这一定程度上可能也是由于涨价造成的。
实际上,到目前为止,美国很多大型食品和消费品生产商都已经实施了涨价。受《财富》杂志委托,Datasembly公司对2021年1月至2022年1月间“《财富》美国500强”上榜食品和消费品企业生产的18种主要产品的全美平均售价进行了调查,结果发现,有11种产品的价格涨幅已经超过了通胀水平。
调查显示,在美国的主要食品与消费品生产企业中,JBS、家乐氏(Kellogg)、金佰利和泰森食品(Tyson Foods)等,其部分产品的涨价幅度均超过了今年1月美国的通胀幅度(7.5%)。
该调查显示,在被调查的产品中,涨价幅度最高的是有JBS公司品牌认证的8盎司安格斯牛排(Angus Beef),其去年的涨价幅度达到了34%。泰森食品的一款无骨鸡肉的价格也从2021年1月的6.62美元上涨到上个月的8.39美元,涨幅达到26.7%。相比之下,今年1月发布的CPI指数显示,2021年美国的牛肉价格上涨了16%,鸡肉价格上涨了10.3%。
另外,其中一些公司的利润率也确实比新冠疫情前更高了。在“《财富》美国500强”的上榜食品和消费品制造商中,有13家公司2021年的平均利润高于2019年,其中11家公司的利润增幅高于通胀率。不过这也未必表明它们一定有投机牟利行为。
比如,据《财富》杂志调查,酒精饮料巨头摩森康胜(Molson Coors)和日用品龙头企业宝洁公司有5款产品的提价幅度基本与通胀水平一致,甚至略低于通胀率。但摩森康胜和宝洁去年的利润率却比新冠疫情前的水平翻了一番。这两家公司的利润上涨,有可能与销量上涨或者与削减开支有关,不过也有可能与售价的小幅上涨有关。
泰森食品和JBS的利润率也出现了显著的增长——虽然涨幅不算业界最高,但也相当可观。如前所述,2021年,它们的一些关键产品的价格出现了大幅上涨。家乐氏的利润率也有一定上涨,而且它旗下的几款产品的售价涨幅也超过了通胀率。
宝洁公司于2月18日对《财富》杂志指出,该公司的生产成本近来持续上升,最近两个季度,它的大宗商品成本和运输成本环比上涨了13亿美元(税后成本)。宝洁公司发言人称:“这是近20年来我们看到的最大幅度的成本上涨,虽然我们需要转嫁部分成本,但我们也将同时推动各方面的创新,以继续为消费者带来巨大价值。”
这位发言人还表示,宝洁公司专注于“为消费者提供最佳性能的优异产品,从而最终为消费者带去价值。”但他并未直接评论公司的利润率为何变高的问题。
摩森康胜和ADM公司拒绝就此发表评论。JBS公司则未回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
困难是真实存在的
穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)的零售与消费品部高级副总裁裁琳达·蒙塔格指出,目前,几乎每家公司都面临着供应链卡脖子、“用工荒”和大宗商品成本上涨的问题,这些问题导致了企业运营预算上涨、利润率下降。而且就算企业宣布涨价,从涨价到利润上涨之间,往往也还有一个时间差。
比如据拉什介绍,上个季度宝洁公司公布的毛利率是49.11%。其中,通胀因素对公司利润的影响达到了负4%,运费上涨对利润的影响也有负0.6%。
家乐氏公司的发言人克里斯·巴纳指出,目前,全球对大宗商品的需求持续增加,而供应却相对紧张,这种供需失衡的影响是不容忽视的。“这导致食用油、小麦、玉米、大米、纸张和硬纸板等食品生产销售所需的原材料价格包括运输成本创下历史新高。”同时巴纳也对《财富》杂志表示:“我们这个行业对哄抬物价和网络诈骗等违法欺诈行为是零容忍的。”
美国商会(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)的常务副会长兼首席政策官尼尔·布拉德利于今年1月在一份声明中表示:“与许多其他产品一样,推动肉类价格上涨的因素包括需求上升、疫情导致的供应链问题,以及投入成本上升等等,特别是能源和劳动力成本的上升。”
普渡大学(Purdue University)的农业经济学系主任杰森·卢斯克指出,2021年,用于饲养牲畜的谷物和油籽价格有所上涨,这反过来也推高了牲畜和家禽的饲养成本。
全美鸡肉协会(National Chicken Council)的发言人汤姆·休珀指出,尽管玉米、大豆、汽油、包装和运输成本都上涨了至少两位数,但美国鸡肉价格的涨幅却仅仅略高于总体通胀率(今年1月发布的2021年美国鸡肉价格增幅为10.3%,而美国的总体通胀率为7.5%)。
泰森食品的发言人加里·米克尔森在回答《财富》杂志关于涨价和利润的问题时称:“经济学家和行业分析师都已经证明,目前肉类价格的上涨,是供应链受限,以及粮食、劳动力、能源等投入成本上涨,加上消费者需求强劲共同作用的直接结果。”
穆迪投资者服务公司的零售与消费品部高级副总裁裁琳达·蒙塔格认为:“问题的症结并非是有些公司想发‘国难财’。”虽然目前有些公司的利润率有所上升,但这种情形未必会一直持续下去。例如,一些公司利润率上升的原因,可能是由于在新冠疫情期间砍掉了一些营销预算,或者是销量增加了。还有一些公司加大了生产和销售速度,这也有助于缓冲运营成本上升带来的影响。
“通胀是真实存在的。”蒙塔格认为,任何声称企业涨价是为了哄抬物价、投机倒把的人都是在“信口胡说”。
是“体制问题”在鼓励企业涨价?
尽管通胀问题引发了极大担忧,但去年美国经济的增长率仍然达到了5.7%——或许这其中还有通胀的功劳。这不禁令人思考,对于40年来早已习惯了低通胀和全球化的美国来说,目前这种高需求、高就业率甚至是高通胀的环境,是否才是经济增长真正应有的样子?当然,美国经济目前还在从新冠疫情泥潭中复苏的路上,但自20世纪中叶以来,美国还没有经历过像这样的真正的经济繁荣。而在那一次的繁荣期,美国也遭遇了高通胀问题。
也有一些专家认为,目前美国的高通胀并不是经济健康增长的表现,甚至也不是为了抵消运营成本的上涨,而是放松监管和缺乏竞争的结果。
美国前劳工部长、经济学家罗伯特·赖克最近就这个话题撰文称:“如果市场是具有竞争性的,企业就会压低价格,以防止竞争对手抢走顾客。”
拜登政府最近也点名批评一些行业缺乏竞争,并指出这有可能导致成本上升。美国四大肉制品公司嘉吉(Cargill)、JBS、国家牛肉包装公司(National Beef Packing)和泰森食品就在被点名之列,这四家公司控制了美国猪肉、牛肉和鸡肉市场的大半壁江山。美国财政部(Treasury Department)近期也发布了一份63页的报告,指出百威英博公司(nheuser-Busch InBev)和摩森康胜公司控制了美国啤酒市场65%的收入。因此有批评人士指出,这些公司之所以能够随心所欲地涨价,就是因为消费者没有太多的品牌和产品可以选择。
今年1月,美国总统拜登曾经指出:“我们在过去几十年里看到的情况是,竞争越来越少,集中程度越来越高,这实际上阻碍了经济的发展,很多行业都是由少数几个大公司主导着整个市场。”
不过,北美肉类协会(North American Meat Institute)的会长兼首席执行官朱莉·安娜·波茨并不这样认为。她表示,美国的肉类行业并不像拜登政府描述的那样集中化,25年来,美国肉类市场的结构基本上没有变化。“如果是集中化导致了近期肉禽产品价格上涨,那么5年前或者10年前,集中化为什么没有导致肉禽产品价格上涨呢?”美国四大肉制品公司都是该协会的会员,不过它们并未专门对《财富》杂志就拜登政府的有关言论作出评论。
美国啤酒协会(Beer Institute)的会长兼首席执行官吉姆·麦克格里维也指出,美国财政部的报告“曲解了繁荣发展中的美国啤酒产业。”他指出,自2010年以来,美国新注册的啤酒厂超过1万家。“消费者也受益于越来越多的啤酒厂和进口啤酒商,他们有了比以往任何时候更多的选择。”百威英博和摩森康胜都是美国啤酒协会的会员,不过他们也未对拜登政府的有关言论进行评论。
据《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)报道,即使在白宫内部,也有一些经济学家反对政府将通胀归咎于企业。
蒙塔格指出,实际上,食品和消费品领域是存在着“大量激烈的竞争”的。很多上市公司不仅互为竞争对手,还要面临着很多非上市公司的竞争。据美国自有品牌制造商协会(Private Label Manufacturers Association)统计,从销售额上看,美国零售店的门店自有品牌大约占据了市场的17.7%;从销量上看,则占据了市场的19.6%。
还有一些人认为,当前的物价上涨是不合理的。比如关注经济问题的激进社会组织Groundwork Collaborative的首席经济学家拉金·马布德对《财富》杂志表示,她认为当前企业纷纷涨价的现状“非常不合理”,理由是首席执行官和企业高管们能够任意向消费者涨价,但美国的普通老百姓却毫无选择,只能被迫支付更高的价格——但与此同时,这些企业却在分更高的红利给股东。
大公司通过涨价获得了创纪录的利润,首席执行官们悄悄说了大实话——他们很乐意推高通胀。
美国家庭支付了更高的物价,企业高管获得了更丰厚的奖金。你们自己看看高管们是怎么说的吧。
——伊丽莎白·沃伦(@SenWarren),2022年1月15日
“这些大公司靠刮勉强度日的底层人的油水而大赚特赚,这是不合理的,不但不合理,也对我们的经济有害。只有在我们所有人都过得好的时候,我们的经济才会好——而不是在只有这些大企业过得好的时候。”马布德说道。
她还补充说:“毫无疑问,企业是受利润驱使的。企业究竟赚多少利润才合适,这基本上是一个道德问题。不过现在有一个显然非常不合理的现象,那就是投资者和股东都在靠侵蚀普通消费者的利益来赚钱。”
另一方面,那些大肆宣扬自己涨价了的上市公司也的确在股市上获得了丰厚回报。彭博社(Bloomberg)最近的一篇报道显示,在近一个财季中,这些上市公司在宣布产品涨价后,其股价几乎都是应声上涨。比如连锁餐饮企业Chipotle在2021年12月宣布涨价4%后,其股价已经上涨了10%。而清洁用品高乐氏(Clorox)的涨价行为则低调得多,基本上都是悄悄进行的,高乐氏还在财报会议上警告投资者,未来几年哪些因素有可能影响公司的利润率。结果该公司的股价直接暴跌14%。
马布德指出,这些大企业一家接着一家地宣布涨价,这与投资者的怂恿不无关系。有些企业看到别人涨后利润率上去了,自己也就跟着涨价,而且投资者也要求它们这样做。
马布德认为:“这样一来,就算通胀消失了,企业投机牟利的倾向也会长期存在。”
涨价的长期成本
绝大多数的美国人都意识到,当前的高通胀是有问题的。哈里斯民调机构(Harris Poll)的数据显示,90%的美国人注意到,近几个月他们经常购买的商品价格有所上涨。有44%的美国成年人表示,通胀目前是他们最担心的问题。
不过有研究显示,消费者在紧急情况下,对物价上涨的容忍度会有所提升。比如哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的研究人员最近发表的一篇论文显示,在美国爆发新冠疫情之初,只有一小半美国消费者认为洗手液的价格上涨是不合理的。该论文的合著者克里斯托弗·布卡富斯科向《财富》杂志指出:“消费者对‘合理’的标准是相当灵活的。人们对‘合理’与否的看法,在很大程度上取决于具体情况。”
至于消费者会不会觉得高通胀是美国市场机制的结构性弊病导致的,以及消费是否愿意继续容忍这种高通胀,目前我们尚不清楚。不过一旦消费者的忍耐到了极限,那么一直追求和纵容涨价的企业以及政客,或许都要承受一波民意的强烈反弹。
当前这轮涨价也是有实际成本的。除了一些自带波动性的大宗商品,有些产品的价格涨上来之后,未来即便供给压力减轻了,它的价格也不容易再降下去了,例如一瓶汽水或者一支牙刷。所以从长远来看,消费者将长期承受更高的价格。
马布德说:“有时我们谈论通胀,就像谈论一个与我们无关的问题一样。但事实上,我们之所以非常关注通胀问题,是因为它对我们有实实在在的影响。物价的上涨真的会给弱势群体造成非常非常沉重的打击。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
You’ve been paying more for stuff for a year now.
From used cars to rent to the price of groceries, inflation set record after record throughout 2021 and came to be widely acknowledged as the worst in 40 years.
There are very real reasons behind why inflation is high, including unusually strong consumer demand at a time when businesses are navigating worker shortages and continuing supply-chain issues. But one nagging question hasn’t been answered yet: Are you getting screwed by companies using inflation as an excuse to raise prices on you?
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Biden administration, consumer advocates, and even some economists think so. “The nation is dealing with inflation at its highest level in decades, much of it driven by corporate greed and anticompetitive behavior, and the federal government must use every tool available to prevent price gouging and reduce prices for Americans,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a letter this month, urging the Department of Justice to take action against companies violating antitrust laws to hike prices for consumers.
Rising prices on food and household items, in particular, are starting to really worry consumers. The average net income margins, or profit margins, of about half of the 28 food and consumer goods manufacturers listed on the Fortune 500 have risen compared to the pre-pandemic levels, according to an analysis performed by Fortune. While those profit margins are up, it’s difficult to say whether or not that’s directly tied to higher prices.
So are these corporations really price gouging? Are they pandemic profiteers? Well, first off, it’s not a settled legal issue, given that there are currently no federal laws against it.
And secondly, the stock market largely loves it, with many investors rewarding public companies for their so-called greed. But the stock market is not the economy, and just because something is technically legal doesn’t mean it’s good. What’s good for investors may be very bad for the American consumer.
What is a healthy profit, anyway?
Let’s clear the air: Making a healthy profit is not the same as price gouging or even unfairly profiting off the pandemic. Nor does simply raising prices constitute price gouging.
“There's this issue of companies that are more profitable now for whatever reason,” Glenn Richey, the chair of the department of supply-chain management at Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business, tells Fortune. That could be a top-line issue where prices have been driven up out of necessity for the business; it also could be due to “opportunistic behaviors” by corporate executives, he says.
In fact, the discussions around companies’ price increases often conflate the idea of profiteering and price gouging, but they’re really two different things, Richey says. Profiteering essentially occurs when a business makes, or seeks to make, an excessive or unfair profit.
Price gouging happens on the consumer level when a seller increases the prices of goods, services, or commodities to a level much higher than is considered reasonable or fair. Many times this happens after a natural disaster, like a hurricane, when local stores and suppliers jack up the price of necessities.
It’s difficult to pinpoint a lot of price gouging at the corporate level, however, because there are a vast number of factors at play and the manufacturers themselves generally don’t directly set the retail prices. Instead, there’s a suggested retail price that retailers can take or leave. “Just looking at the flat numbers doesn't necessarily tell the whole story,” says Erin Lash, a director of consumer sector equity research for Morningstar.
“Most of the time, historically, when firms have raised prices, they've been very explicit about the fact that this is not to cover the entirety of the costs they're incurring—it's to offset a portion of it,” Lash tells Fortune. Take the case of McCormick & Company, the spice and condiment supplier, which raised their prices in 2021.
“To partially offset rising costs, we raised prices where appropriate last year,” McCormick CEO Lawrence Kurzius said on a January earnings call. “As costs have continued to accelerate, we are raising prices again where appropriate in 2022.”
And not every company has a fatter profit margin after raising prices. Fortune 500 company Kimberly Clark’s CEO Mike Hsu noted during the company’s latest earnings call that the personal goods manufacturer had already implemented “multiple rounds” of “significant pricing actions.”
The prices of its products like Kleenex tissues and Huggies Little Snugglers diapers rose 16.4% and 9.4% respectively over the past year, according to a Datasembly analysis for Fortune. But that didn't help Kimberly Clark’s profit margin, which is at 9.4%, still below pre-pandemic levels, according to Fortune’s analysis.
Price increases
There’s no doubt that U.S. and even international companies have raised prices across the board. Not only are benchmarks like the consumer price index on the rise, the companies themselves are crowing about it.
Companies contend that they have been forced to raise those prices because their own costs have increased so significantly. Mondelez, a Fortune 500–listed snack food and beverage company, announced price increases of 6% to 7% took effect in January. “We have implemented material price increases, ensuring we are significantly hedged across key commodities and we are continuing to drive productivity measures,” Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put said during the company’s January earnings call. Van de Put did not rule out additional hikes later in the year.
P&G, meanwhile, said its price increases are meant to offset constrained supply-chain disruptions and even headwinds faced by foreign exchange rates. “We will offset a portion of these cost pressures with price increases and with productivity savings,” Andre Schulten, chief financial officer of P&G, which makes products ranging from razors to diapers to laundry detergent, said on a January earnings call. Schulten noted P&G announced increases across every U.S. product category. The company’s hikes are the largest implemented since the spring of 2019.
Yet P&G reported that sales during its latest quarter ending on Dec. 31 increased 6% compared to the prior year—perhaps fueled, in part, by those price increases.
In fact, many of the biggest food and consumer goods manufacturers have implemented price increases. A review by Datasembly for Fortune of a sampling of national average prices for 18 key products from Fortune 500–ranked consumer goods and food manufacturers January 2021 to 2022 found that 11 products saw inflation-beating price increases.
Companies including JBS, Kellogg, Kimberly-Clark, and Tyson all had products with price jumps that were higher than the 7.5% inflation rate hit in January.
The highest price increase among the products analyzed came from JBS brand Certified Angus Beef’s 8-ounce porterhouse steaks, which spiked nearly 34% over the past year, according to Datasembly. A package of Tyson’s Any’tizers Buffalo-style boneless chicken bites, meanwhile, surged from an average cost of $6.62 in January 2021 to $8.39 last month—a 26.7% increase. By comparison, the January consumer price index for beef and veal rose 16% over the past 12 months, while chicken prices jumped 10.3%.
Some of those same companies also have higher profit margins compared to pre-pandemic levels. Of the 13 foods and consumer goods manufacturers listed on the Fortune 500 that had higher average profit margins in 2021 than in 2019, 11 companies had margin increases that tracked higher than inflation. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re profiteering.
Alcoholic beverage giant Molson Coors and P&G, for example, raised prices on five products that Fortune examined in a way that corresponded with inflation, or even fell below it. Yet Molson Coors and P&G more than doubled their profit margins last year compared to pre-pandemic levels. These higher margins could be due to moving more product or cutting expenses. Or it could be tied to marginally higher prices.
Tyson and JBS also saw significant increases to their profit margins—not the highest seen, true, but still extensive. And as noted earlier, several of their key products saw major price jumps. Kellogg also saw healthy margin growth and above-inflation product price increases.
P&G told Fortune on February 18 that its production costs have simply been higher; the year-over-year increases of commodity and transportation costs have gone up $1.3 billion after taxes over the past two quarters. “These are the largest increases we've seen in about 20 years, and 50% higher than the next highest year,” a spokesperson told Fortune. “Where we need to pass on some costs, we’re pairing those price increases with innovation wherever possible to continue to deliver great value for our consumers.”
The P&G spokesperson said the company’s focus is on “delivering superior products with the best performance, ultimately delivering value to our consumers,” without commenting directly on the higher profit margin.
Molson Coors Beverage and Archer Daniels Midland declined to comment. JBS did not respond to requests for comment.
The struggle is real
Nearly every company is fighting supply-chain bottlenecks, worker shortages, and rising commodity costs—all of which drive up operating budgets and eat into profits, says Linda Montag, a senior vice president in Moody's Investors Service's retail and consumer goods group. And there’s typically a lag between when companies announce price increases and when those increases contribute to the company’s profit margin, if they ever do.
Inflationary headwinds, for example, are credited with creating a four percentage point drag to the 49.11% gross margin P&G reported for the latest earnings quarter. Higher freight costs generated a 0.6 percentage point hit, according to Lash.
The impact of growing global demand and tight supply for commodities on which food manufacturers rely cannot be overstated, says Kellogg spokesperson Kris Bahner. “This is creating record-high prices for ingredients and commodities needed to make and distribute our foods, such as cooking oils, wheat, corn, rice, and paper and cardboard, as well as transportation costs,” Bahner tells Fortune. “Our industry has zero tolerance for illegal and deceptive practices such as price gouging and online scammers.”
“Like so many other products, the factors driving meat prices higher include increased demand, COVID-related supply-chain disruptions, and increased input costs, especially higher energy and labor costs,” Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said last month in a statement.
Additionally grain and oilseed prices, which are used to feed livestock, have been higher in 2021, according to Jayson Lusk, head of the department of agricultural economics at Purdue University. This, in turn, has pushed up the cost of feed for livestock and poultry.
Price increases for chicken, in particular, are “barely” outpacing inflation—even despite major inputs like corn, soybeans, gasoline, packaging, and transportation increasing by double digit costs, adds National Chicken Council spokesman Tom Super. It’s worth noting, again, January chicken prices rose 10.3% over the past 12 months, compared to the overall inflation rate of 7.5%.
"Economists and industry analysts confirm that today’s higher meat prices are a direct result of constrained supplies due to the labor shortage, higher input costs for such things as grain, labor, and fuel, and strong consumer demand," Gary Mickelson, a Tyson spokesperson, said in response to Fortune's questions to the company around higher profit margins and product prices.
“It's not that some companies are raking in the benefits here,” Montag tells Fortune. The companies that are showing better margins right now aren't necessarily always going to do so, Montag says. The upswings, for instance, could be due to companies’ slashing marketing budgets during the pandemic or increased volume. Some companies are still producing and selling goods at a higher rate, which helps to cushion the impact of higher operating costs.
“The inflation is real,” Montag says. Anybody claiming that corporations raising costs right now are doing so to simply gouge people are “nuts,” she adds.
Some argue the system is rigged—and rewarding price hikes
Despite the concerns over pricing changes—or perhaps because of them, the U.S. economy grew 5.7% last year. Could this environment of high demand, lots of job creation, and yes, even high inflation, be what economic growth actually looks like to an America used to 40 years of deflationary globalization? To be sure, it’s still a rebound from the depths of the coronavirus recession, but America hasn’t had a genuine economic boom like this since the mid-20th century, when it last battled high inflation.
But some experts contend that higher prices aren’t a result of healthy economic growth or even making up for rising operating costs, but rather deregulation and a lack of competition.
“If markets were competitive, companies would keep their prices down in order to prevent competitors from grabbing away customers,” Robert Reich, an economist and former Clinton labor secretary, recently wrote on the topic.
Several sectors have been recently called out by the Biden White House for lack of competition that could be helping to drive up costs. Four major meat companies—Cargill, JBS, National Beef Packing, and Tyson—control half or more of the pork, beef, and chicken markets, according to the administration’s talking points. And the Treasury Department recently released a 63-page report highlighting that Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors control about 65% of the U.S. beer market by revenue. Those companies, critics say, are able to raise prices as they’d like because customers don’t have much choice between a host of different brands and products.
“What we've seen over the last few decades is less competition and more concentration that literally holds [the] economy back. And in too many industries, a handful of giant companies dominate the entire market,” Biden said in January.
But Julie Anna Potts, president and CEO of the North American Meat Institute, has pushed back on these claims, saying that the industry is not as concentrated as the Biden administration has portrayed and that the structure has largely remained unchanged for 25 years. "If concentration is causing the recent rise in consumer prices for meat and poultry products, why did concentration not cause inflation five or 10 years ago?" Cargill, JBS, National Beef, and Tyson are all members of the institute but did not comment on the Biden administration's claims specifically to Fortune when asked.
Beer Institute president and CEO Jim McGreevy, meanwhile, called the DOJ report a "mischaracterization of the thriving American beer industry," noting there have been more than 10,000 new breweries permitted since 2010. "Consumers are benefiting from the growing number of brewers and beer importers, with more choices for beer than at any other time in our nation’s history," he said. Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors are members. Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors did not comment about the Biden administrations' claims specifically to Fortune when asked.
Even inside the White House, some economists have objected to the administration's push to blame corporations for inflation, according to a report from the Washington Post.
In fact, there’s “an awful lot of competition” within the food manufacturing and consumer goods space. Not only are many of the companies competing with each other, they’re also going up against private labels, Montag says. Store brands have cornered about 17.7% of the market in dollars and 19.6% in units sold, according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association.
Yet others argue that the price hikes are unjust, including Rakeen Mabud, chief economist for the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive activist group focused on economic issues. Mabud tells Fortune what stands out to her as “deeply unfair” about the current situation is that CEOs and corporate executives are saying they’re able to jack up prices on consumers right now, and Americans don’t have a choice but to continue to pay the higher prices—all while these companies are paying bigger dividends to shareholders.
Giant corporations are making record profits by increasing prices, and CEOs are saying the quiet part out loud: they’re happy to help drive inflation.
American families pay higher prices and corporate executives get fatter bonuses. See for yourself what executives are saying:
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) February 15, 2022
“These megacorporations are making bank off of people who are just struggling to keep their heads above water,” Mabud says. “That's unfair. It's unfair, but it's also bad for our economy. Our economy does best when we all do well—not these big corporations.
“There's no doubt that companies are profit-driven. I think there's a real question, in many ways, a moral question, about how much profits are appropriate,” Mabud continues. “What is just very clearly unfair is the fact that investors and shareholders are making money on the backs of consumers right now.”
And public companies are currently being rewarded for trumpeting those price hikes. During the latest earnings season, companies that have touted successful product price increases saw almost immediate gains in their share price, according to a recent Bloomberg report. Chipotle, which heavily focused on its implementation of a 4% price increase in December, had its shares rise 10%. Clorox—which more quietly raised prices—focused more of its earnings call on warning investors that the cleaning supply company could see impacts on its margins for years. It saw its stock dip 14% in the aftermath, Bloomberg reported.
Company after company has announced price increases—and they're being egged on by their investors, Mabud argues. Companies are seeing their profit margins get ever fatter, and so they're hiking prices because it's working and investors are demanding that, she says.
“That's going to perpetuate this problem of profiteering long beyond inflation going away,” Mabud says.
The long-term cost of raising prices
The vast majority of Americans know something is wrong. Nine out of 10 have noticed that the prices on the items they routinely purchase have risen in recent months, according to Harris Poll, and 44% of U.S. adults say inflation is currently their biggest concern.
Consumers, however, are somewhat tolerant of price increases during emergencies, research shows. Less than half of U.S. consumers, for example, thought the price increase in hand sanitizer at the beginning of the pandemic was unfair, according to a recent working paper by Columbia researchers. “Consumer norms about fairness seem pretty flexible. So what people think is fair can be highly context dependent,” coauthor Christopher Buccafusco tells Fortune.
It’s less clear whether consumers are willing to consider there’s something structurally wrong or for how long that tolerance will hold. And if it doesn’t, there could be a huge backlash against both businesses and politicians who let it carry on.
Yet there’s a real cost to these rising prices. With the exception of slightly more volatile commodities, the cost of a can of soda or a toothbrush isn't going to come down that much in the future—even after supply pressures ease. Instead, consumers are going to be stuck with higher prices over the long haul.
“Sometimes we talk about inflation like we care about it for its own sake. We really care about inflation because we care about the way it affects people,” Mabud says. “These price hikes are really, really hitting vulnerable people hard.”