2月24日,欧洲数十年来最大的安全威胁影响市场,美元盘中涨幅达到近两年来最高。
彭博美元指数(Bloomberg Dollar Index)的涨幅高达1.4%,接近2021年最高水平,但随着美国科技股的反弹,涨幅有所降低。在俄罗斯对乌克兰发起军事行动后,交易员纷纷转向安全的美元,美元兑十国集团成员国货币的汇率均走高。
欧洲大陆的投资者纷纷涌入避险资产,欧元兑瑞士法郎跌至近七年低点。汇率跌幅高达1%,为三年多来最大,之后略有反弹。欧元兑美元一度下跌1.8%至1.1106美元,汇率为2020年6月以来最低。
市场对美元的强劲需求压低了欧洲其他货币的汇率,瑞典、挪威和丹麦的货币汇率下跌至少1%。在俄罗斯的坦克开进乌克兰后,就连传统的避风港瑞士法郎兑美元的汇率也出现下跌。
“广义美元方面,本交易日最重要的一点在于,尽管隔夜指数掉期曲线降低了美联储的加息预期,美元还是出现了反弹。”蒙特利尔银行资本市场公司(BMO Capital Markets)的欧洲外汇策略主管斯蒂芬·加洛在一份报告中表示。“当前是纯粹由‘避险’主导的外汇市场,毕竟北美和欧洲之间存在地理距离。”
欧元方面,在今年2月早些时候欧洲央行(European Central Bank)表达更强硬态度后,之前欧元积攒的增幅几乎归零。冲突导致油价飙升,打算收紧政策应对通胀的官员面临的前景愈加复杂。当前的通胀已经达到数十年来最高。不过,货币市场认为加息机会不大。
“外汇投资者认为,危机一旦恶化将加剧欧元区复苏的滞胀风险,导致欧洲央行政策正常化收效甚微,对欧元造成压力。”法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole SA)的十国集团货币策略主管瓦伦丁·马里诺夫说。
交易者预计会出现更剧烈波动以及汇率进一步下跌。随着市场动荡不已,之后一周欧元-美元对价格波动的对冲成本已经达到2020年12月以来最高,而从相同期间期权呈现的情绪来看,市场对欧元的预期为2020年3月以来最悲观。
2月24日判断加息的交易者略有减少,不过市场还是预测欧洲央行在今年年底前将加息25个基点。预计美联储(Federal Reserve)将加息六次,英格兰银行(Bank of England)将加息五次。英镑兑美元下跌了2%。
最近几周,各国央行官员均承认,由于俄罗斯和北约(NATO)的盟国之间在乌克兰问题上的紧张局势不断升级,能源价格前景将受到影响。如今,各国要在孤立俄罗斯与通胀走高的经济后果之间做出选择。
欧洲央行表示,正“密切关注”乌克兰局势,将在3月10日的利率决策会议上“全面评估经济前景”。欧洲央行管理委员会的成员加布里埃尔·马赫卢夫指出,乌克兰危机可能不会影响下次会议上欧洲央行就迅速减少资产购买达成一致。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
2月24日,欧洲数十年来最大的安全威胁影响市场,美元盘中涨幅达到近两年来最高。
彭博美元指数(Bloomberg Dollar Index)的涨幅高达1.4%,接近2021年最高水平,但随着美国科技股的反弹,涨幅有所降低。在俄罗斯对乌克兰发起军事行动后,交易员纷纷转向安全的美元,美元兑十国集团成员国货币的汇率均走高。
欧洲大陆的投资者纷纷涌入避险资产,欧元兑瑞士法郎跌至近七年低点。汇率跌幅高达1%,为三年多来最大,之后略有反弹。欧元兑美元一度下跌1.8%至1.1106美元,汇率为2020年6月以来最低。
市场对美元的强劲需求压低了欧洲其他货币的汇率,瑞典、挪威和丹麦的货币汇率下跌至少1%。在俄罗斯的坦克开进乌克兰后,就连传统的避风港瑞士法郎兑美元的汇率也出现下跌。
“广义美元方面,本交易日最重要的一点在于,尽管隔夜指数掉期曲线降低了美联储的加息预期,美元还是出现了反弹。”蒙特利尔银行资本市场公司(BMO Capital Markets)的欧洲外汇策略主管斯蒂芬·加洛在一份报告中表示。“当前是纯粹由‘避险’主导的外汇市场,毕竟北美和欧洲之间存在地理距离。”
欧元方面,在今年2月早些时候欧洲央行(European Central Bank)表达更强硬态度后,之前欧元积攒的增幅几乎归零。冲突导致油价飙升,打算收紧政策应对通胀的官员面临的前景愈加复杂。当前的通胀已经达到数十年来最高。不过,货币市场认为加息机会不大。
“外汇投资者认为,危机一旦恶化将加剧欧元区复苏的滞胀风险,导致欧洲央行政策正常化收效甚微,对欧元造成压力。”法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole SA)的十国集团货币策略主管瓦伦丁·马里诺夫说。
交易者预计会出现更剧烈波动以及汇率进一步下跌。随着市场动荡不已,之后一周欧元-美元对价格波动的对冲成本已经达到2020年12月以来最高,而从相同期间期权呈现的情绪来看,市场对欧元的预期为2020年3月以来最悲观。
2月24日判断加息的交易者略有减少,不过市场还是预测欧洲央行在今年年底前将加息25个基点。预计美联储(Federal Reserve)将加息六次,英格兰银行(Bank of England)将加息五次。英镑兑美元下跌了2%。
最近几周,各国央行官员均承认,由于俄罗斯和北约(NATO)的盟国之间在乌克兰问题上的紧张局势不断升级,能源价格前景将受到影响。如今,各国要在孤立俄罗斯与通胀走高的经济后果之间做出选择。
欧洲央行表示,正“密切关注”乌克兰局势,将在3月10日的利率决策会议上“全面评估经济前景”。欧洲央行管理委员会的成员加布里埃尔·马赫卢夫指出,乌克兰危机可能不会影响下次会议上欧洲央行就迅速减少资产购买达成一致。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
A gauge of the dollar’s strength had its largest intraday gain in nearly two years on February 24 as markets grappled with the biggest security threat in Europe in decades.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose as much as 1.4%, approaching its highest levels of the past year, before paring gains as U.S. technology shares rebounded. Traders flocked to the safety of the greenback after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sending the U.S. currency higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers.
On the continent, the euro dropped to a nearly seven-year low against the Swiss franc as investors flocked to haven assets. The pair dropped as much as 1%, the largest slide in more than three years, before rebounding slightly. The common currency posted an even bigger decline against the greenback, falling as much as 1.8% to 1.1106, its lowest level since June 2020.
Demand for the dollar crushed other European currencies, with those of Sweden, Norway and Denmark declining at least 1%. Even the Swiss franc, a traditional haven, lost ground against the dollar as Russian tanks moved into Ukraine.
“For the broad USD, one of the most important aspects of today’s trading session is that the currency has rallied in spite of the OIS curve paring back Fed rate hike expectations,” Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. “We are observing a purely a ‘risk-off’ dominated FX market with an understandable geographical separation between North America and Europe.”
The euro, for its part, erased what remained of gains accrued after the European Central Bank struck a more hawkish tone earlier February. The invasion sent oil prices soaring, complicating the outlook for officials planning to tighten policy to deal with inflation that’s already at the highest in decades. Still, money-markets pared bets on interest-rate hikes.
“FX investors believe that any intensification of the crisis will aggravate the stagflation risks to the euro-zone recovery, delay any meaningful policy normalization by the ECB and weigh on the euro,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole SA.
Traders are expecting more volatility and further losses. The cost of hedging price swings in the euro-dollar pair over the next week reached its highest level since December 2020 in the midst of the market turmoil, while a measure of options sentiment over the same tenor is at its most bearish on the common currency since March 2020.
While wagers on rate increases were trimmed slightly on February 24, one quarter-point hike is still expected from the ECB by year-end. Six are expected by the Federal Reserve and five by the Bank of England. The pound slid as much as 2% against the dollar.
In recent weeks, central-bank officials have acknowledged that the escalating tensions between Russia and NATO allies over Ukraine will affect the outlook for energy prices. Now they need to weigh the economic consequences of measures to isolate Russia against higher inflation.
The ECB said it is “closely monitoring” the situation in Ukraine and will conduct a “comprehensive assessment of the economic outlook” at their rate-decision meeting on March 10. Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said the crisis over Ukraine probably won’t keep the ECB from agreeing on a faster wind-down of asset purchases at the next meeting.