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今年夏天度假要小心,新变种病毒随时可能出现

专家认为,预测未来五个月的疫情状况几乎是不可能的。

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新冠疫情自从在美国爆发至今已经过去了两年多,许多美国人因此出现了“新冠疲劳症”,这并不意外。如今,许多人准备开始过没有疫情的新生活。

凯撒家庭基金会(Kaiser Family Foundation)在今年1月末进行的调查显示,约四分之三来自不同年龄、性别、种族、政治立场和收入群体的成年人表示,“疲倦”和“沮丧”最能代表他们对疫情现状的感受。

2021年冬天爆发的奥密克戎疫情在过去几个月内影响了数百万人。随着这波疫情慢慢结束,许多美国人对后疫情时代的暑期充满了期待,希望今年夏天能够摘掉口罩并取消社交隔离政策。然而,当人们正在准备再次畅享夏日时光的时候,专家们却认为新冠病毒之前曾经多次让我们措手不及,而且要预测未来五个月的疫情状况几乎是不可能的。

许多人希望2022年夏季美国将彻底结束疫情,并取消疫情限制措施,但流行病专家们提出了警告。出现新变异株的风险可能随时导致情况发生变化,就像2021年夏天出现的德尔塔变异毒株,使疫情将很快结束的想法变成了泡影。此外,下一个新冠病毒变异毒株极有可能比奥密克戎变异毒株的毒性和致命性更强。据美国疾病控制与预防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)统计,美国每天依旧有超过10万人感染奥密克戎变异毒株。

麦吉尔大学(McGill University)的心脏病学家、流行病学家和副教授克里斯托弗·拉博斯对《财富》杂志表示:“未来在极大程度上是不可知的,而且依旧有太多变量可能影响最终的结果。”

与病毒共存意味着什么

美国许多城市和州已经放宽了疫情限制措施,并取消了配戴口罩的强制规定。

今年3月早些时候,纽约州和加利福尼亚州取消了对已经接种疫苗人群在室内配戴口罩的强制规定;新泽西州、华盛顿州和新墨西哥州取消了校内配戴口罩的强制规定;在伊利诺伊州,芝加哥市的市长洛丽·莱特福特于3月2日宣布该市将在下周取消口罩规定。事实上,夏威夷成为美国唯一一个现在仍然执行口罩强制规定的州。

这种变化不止发生在美国。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊于2月底在议会宣布,英国计划“与病毒共存”,包括结束所有与新冠疫情有关的限制措施。

虽然各国以及美国各州正在纷纷取消口罩规定和疫情限制措施,但专家们始终认为病毒会不断变化。未来一旦出现新变异株,根据病毒的严重性和传播力,可能还需要重新执行限制措施和公共健康措施。

拉博斯说:“所有人都希望不再出现新的变异株,但我认为我们至少应该为出现新变异毒株的可能性做好计划。”

例如配戴口罩和在户外举行活动等一系列预防性措施经过实践检验,可以帮助人们决定他们想要如何度过今年夏天。随着越来越多的新冠治疗药物上市,包括针对特定变异毒株的单克隆抗体,它们也可能开始发挥更重要的作用。

拉博斯指出,“与病毒共存”必定会伴随摇摆不定的公共卫生警告。目前越来越多国家的政府官员提到“与病毒共存”这种说法。但这并不意味着我们要忽视病毒的存在,或者放弃到目前为止行之有效的预防性措施。

拉博斯称:“学习如何与病毒共存,不意味着停止疫苗接种;也不意味着在公共场合不需要戴口罩。你可以在学习的过程中,采取基本措施保护好自己。”

减少限制和约束

专家们接受《财富》杂志采访时认为,未来充满不确定性,但他们预计美国人今年夏季的出行不会像2021年一样受到严重破坏。

美国加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)的流行病学教授、传染病专家蒂莫西·布鲁尔对《财富》杂志表示:“我认为[一种全新的变异株]可能影响人们夏天的计划,但不会让人们彻底无法出行。”

布鲁尔指出,2021年的圣诞节出行被奥密克戎变异毒株彻底打乱,当时随着病例数屡创新高,有数千次航班被取消,美国各地的公司纷纷调整了营业时间。

但他认为这种规模的混乱不太可能重现,与过去两年相比,随着群体免疫力的提高和更多新冠治疗方法的出现,人们能够更轻松地制定出行计划,去更远的地方度假。“除非死亡率突然开始飙升,否则我认为人们的行动会逐步变得更自由,更愿意参与更多活动。”

但很可惜,对于免疫力低下和有潜在健康问题的人群来说,病毒可能依旧是对他们的生活有重要影响的一个因素。

布鲁尔说:“如果你免疫力低下,相对于已经接种疫苗和加强针的人群以及健康的年轻人,你可能不太愿意制定出行计划或者参与活动。我并不认为所有人的情况完全相同。”

加州大学洛杉矶分校的心理学与健康政策和管理教授维姬·梅斯指出,对于出行的隔离或检测要求或许不会像以前那么繁琐。她也认为,今年夏天放宽限制,让人们有机会弥补在新冠疫情期间损失的时间。

梅斯表示:“2022年需要考虑的一件事情是,人们也需要重新审视他们所遭遇的损失。有时候人们之所以去度假,可能是为了追忆奶奶以前喜欢做的事情,或者因为爷爷曾经带我们去过某个地方。”

她认为,今年夏天的旅行和其他活动可以给人们提供一次期待已久的情感宣泄的机会,重新找回在新冠疫情期间失去的一切。

梅斯称:“我希望这场旅行的名义应该是在家人之间重新建立联系,缅怀在这场疫情中逝去的人们,以及珍惜我们彼此在一起的时间。这将真正抚平一些人心灵上的创伤。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

新冠疫情自从在美国爆发至今已经过去了两年多,许多美国人因此出现了“新冠疲劳症”,这并不意外。如今,许多人准备开始过没有疫情的新生活。

凯撒家庭基金会(Kaiser Family Foundation)在今年1月末进行的调查显示,约四分之三来自不同年龄、性别、种族、政治立场和收入群体的成年人表示,“疲倦”和“沮丧”最能代表他们对疫情现状的感受。

2021年冬天爆发的奥密克戎疫情在过去几个月内影响了数百万人。随着这波疫情慢慢结束,许多美国人对后疫情时代的暑期充满了期待,希望今年夏天能够摘掉口罩并取消社交隔离政策。然而,当人们正在准备再次畅享夏日时光的时候,专家们却认为新冠病毒之前曾经多次让我们措手不及,而且要预测未来五个月的疫情状况几乎是不可能的。

许多人希望2022年夏季美国将彻底结束疫情,并取消疫情限制措施,但流行病专家们提出了警告。出现新变异株的风险可能随时导致情况发生变化,就像2021年夏天出现的德尔塔变异毒株,使疫情将很快结束的想法变成了泡影。此外,下一个新冠病毒变异毒株极有可能比奥密克戎变异毒株的毒性和致命性更强。据美国疾病控制与预防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)统计,美国每天依旧有超过10万人感染奥密克戎变异毒株。

麦吉尔大学(McGill University)的心脏病学家、流行病学家和副教授克里斯托弗·拉博斯对《财富》杂志表示:“未来在极大程度上是不可知的,而且依旧有太多变量可能影响最终的结果。”

与病毒共存意味着什么

美国许多城市和州已经放宽了疫情限制措施,并取消了配戴口罩的强制规定。

今年3月早些时候,纽约州和加利福尼亚州取消了对已经接种疫苗人群在室内配戴口罩的强制规定;新泽西州、华盛顿州和新墨西哥州取消了校内配戴口罩的强制规定;在伊利诺伊州,芝加哥市的市长洛丽·莱特福特于3月2日宣布该市将在下周取消口罩规定。事实上,夏威夷成为美国唯一一个现在仍然执行口罩强制规定的州。

这种变化不止发生在美国。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊于2月底在议会宣布,英国计划“与病毒共存”,包括结束所有与新冠疫情有关的限制措施。

虽然各国以及美国各州正在纷纷取消口罩规定和疫情限制措施,但专家们始终认为病毒会不断变化。未来一旦出现新变异株,根据病毒的严重性和传播力,可能还需要重新执行限制措施和公共健康措施。

拉博斯说:“所有人都希望不再出现新的变异株,但我认为我们至少应该为出现新变异毒株的可能性做好计划。”

例如配戴口罩和在户外举行活动等一系列预防性措施经过实践检验,可以帮助人们决定他们想要如何度过今年夏天。随着越来越多的新冠治疗药物上市,包括针对特定变异毒株的单克隆抗体,它们也可能开始发挥更重要的作用。

拉博斯指出,“与病毒共存”必定会伴随摇摆不定的公共卫生警告。目前越来越多国家的政府官员提到“与病毒共存”这种说法。但这并不意味着我们要忽视病毒的存在,或者放弃到目前为止行之有效的预防性措施。

拉博斯称:“学习如何与病毒共存,不意味着停止疫苗接种;也不意味着在公共场合不需要戴口罩。你可以在学习的过程中,采取基本措施保护好自己。”

减少限制和约束

专家们接受《财富》杂志采访时认为,未来充满不确定性,但他们预计美国人今年夏季的出行不会像2021年一样受到严重破坏。

美国加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)的流行病学教授、传染病专家蒂莫西·布鲁尔对《财富》杂志表示:“我认为[一种全新的变异株]可能影响人们夏天的计划,但不会让人们彻底无法出行。”

布鲁尔指出,2021年的圣诞节出行被奥密克戎变异毒株彻底打乱,当时随着病例数屡创新高,有数千次航班被取消,美国各地的公司纷纷调整了营业时间。

但他认为这种规模的混乱不太可能重现,与过去两年相比,随着群体免疫力的提高和更多新冠治疗方法的出现,人们能够更轻松地制定出行计划,去更远的地方度假。“除非死亡率突然开始飙升,否则我认为人们的行动会逐步变得更自由,更愿意参与更多活动。”

但很可惜,对于免疫力低下和有潜在健康问题的人群来说,病毒可能依旧是对他们的生活有重要影响的一个因素。

布鲁尔说:“如果你免疫力低下,相对于已经接种疫苗和加强针的人群以及健康的年轻人,你可能不太愿意制定出行计划或者参与活动。我并不认为所有人的情况完全相同。”

加州大学洛杉矶分校的心理学与健康政策和管理教授维姬·梅斯指出,对于出行的隔离或检测要求或许不会像以前那么繁琐。她也认为,今年夏天放宽限制,让人们有机会弥补在新冠疫情期间损失的时间。

梅斯表示:“2022年需要考虑的一件事情是,人们也需要重新审视他们所遭遇的损失。有时候人们之所以去度假,可能是为了追忆奶奶以前喜欢做的事情,或者因为爷爷曾经带我们去过某个地方。”

她认为,今年夏天的旅行和其他活动可以给人们提供一次期待已久的情感宣泄的机会,重新找回在新冠疫情期间失去的一切。

梅斯称:“我希望这场旅行的名义应该是在家人之间重新建立联系,缅怀在这场疫情中逝去的人们,以及珍惜我们彼此在一起的时间。这将真正抚平一些人心灵上的创伤。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

It’s been more than two years now since the coronavirus pandemic first arrived in the U.S., and it’s no surprise that “COVID fatigue” is setting in among many Americans who are ready to move on from the pandemic.

Roughly three in four adults across age, gender, race, political affiliation, and income groups said that “tired” and “frustrated” best describe how they feel about the current state of the pandemic, according to a late January survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

And as we begin to finally inch past the Omicron winter surge that infected millions in the past few months, many Americans are looking forward to the promise of a post-pandemic summer, free from mask mandates and social distancing. But even though people are ready to enjoy their summers again, experts agree that the virus has blindsided us many times before, and predicting what the pandemic will look like in five months is next to impossible.

But epidemiologists caution against hopes that summer 2022 is going to be entirely COVID- and restriction-free. The risk of a potential new variant could change the game at any time, much like how the Delta variant’s emergence last summer dispelled any ideas that the pandemic would soon be over. And the next coronavirus variant could also very well be more virulent and potentially more deadly than the Omicron variant that is still infecting more than 100,000 Americans each day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“To a very large degree, the future is unknowable, and there's still too many possible variables that could influence the ultimate outcome,” Christopher Labos, a cardiologist, epidemiologist, and associate professor at McGill University, told Fortune.

What living with the virus means

Many cities and states across the U.S. have already eased COVID restrictions and lifted mask mandates.

New York and California did away with indoor mask mandates for vaccinated individuals earlier this month; New Jersey, Washington, and New Mexico, among others, ended mask mandates in schools; in Illinois, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced on March 2 the city would end its mask mandate next week. In fact, Hawaii is now the only U.S. state to still have a mask mandate.

And it’s not just the U.S. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in Parliament at the end of February the country’s plans for “living with COVID,” which included ending all coronavirus-induced restrictions.

But while countries and states are scrapping mask mandates and restrictions right now, experts insist that the virus is ever-changing. Should new variants emerge, restrictions and public health measures may also resurface, depending on the severity and transmissibility of the virus at any one point in time.

“Everyone's hoping that there are no more variants, but I think we need to at least plan for the possibility that there might be,” Labos said.

A combination of tried-and-tested preventative measures, such as masking and keeping activities outdoors, can help people decide what they feel comfortable with doing this summer. A slew of therapeutic treatments for COVID-19 might also start playing a more prominent role as they become more available, including variant-specific monoclonal antibodies.

Labos says that fluctuating public health advisories are going to be an inevitable part of “living with the virus,” a phrase being used increasingly by government officials around the world. But this does not mean that we should ignore the virus’s existence or drop the preventative measures that have been successful so far.

“Learning how to live with the virus doesn't mean stopping the vaccination campaign; it doesn't mean you have to not wear a mask in a public setting,” Labos said. “You can learn how to live with something while still taking basic measures to protect yourself.”

Fewer restrictions, and fewer inhibitions

Experts that Fortune spoke with say that the future is uncertain, but they are not expecting major disruptions to summer travel like the U.S. has experienced in the past.

“I think [a new variant] would likely impact people's summer plans, but it wouldn't shut them down completely,” Dr. Timothy Brewer, professor of epidemiology at UCLA and expert in infectious diseases, told Fortune.

The Omicron variant, Brewer pointed out, completely disrupted Christmas travel last year, when thousands of flights were canceled and businesses across the country changed their hours as caseloads hit record highs.

But Brewer thinks that it is unlikely we will see disruption on such a scale again, as wider immunity and more readily available treatment methods for COVID-19 may help people feel more comfortable making travel plans and venturing farther than they have over the past two years. “Unless the death rates suddenly start to skyrocket, I think people will continue to gradually open up what they're doing and expand their willingness of what to do.”

For immunocompromised groups and people with underlying health issues, however, the virus may unfortunately continue to be an important factor in their lives.

“If you're someone who's immunocompromised, you might be less willing to make travel plans or engage in activities than someone who's fully vaccinated and boosted and otherwise young and healthy,” Brewer said. “I don't think it's going to be the same for every person.”

Quarantine or testing requirements for travel will likely become much less cumbersome, according to Vickie Mays, a professor of psychology and health policy and management at UCLA, who also thinks that looser restrictions this summer will also give people an opportunity to make up for time lost during the pandemic.

“One of the things to think about in 2022 is that people are also needing to revisit some of the losses that they have had. So sometimes going away on a vacation will be to pay respects to what grandma used to like doing, or because grandpa took us there,” Mays said.

Mays thinks that travel and other activities this summer can give people a cathartic and long-awaited chance to reconnect with what may have been lost during the pandemic.

“Some of this travel, I hope, is in the name of being able to reconnect as a family, celebrating the life of those who might have been lost to this pandemic, and appreciating time that we spend with each other,” Mays said. “That is really going to be healing for some people.”

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