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通胀如何影响到加薪?

在决定是否加薪时,管理层需要考虑诸多因素,有时最终决定甚至会与我们的直觉相反。

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随着美国通胀一路飙升、再创历史新高,民众的生活压力日益增大,加之劳动力长期短缺,美国雇主一直在纠结是否应当启动加薪。

艾伦·约翰逊供职于Johnson Associates,这是一家位于纽约市、为大公司提供薪酬方面建议的咨询公司,他说:“过去三个月,我就该问题开过的会比前20年都多。”

美国于2月10日公布的1月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨7.5%,创40年以来新高,让美国人的钱包严重缩水。不过,在决定是否加薪时,管理层需要考虑诸多因素,有时最终决定甚至会与我们的直觉相反,加之受到新冠疫情的影响,相关决策变得更为复杂。由于现今掌舵各家企业的高管很少有人在1982年(上一次出现高通胀的时间)便已经进入管理层,所以在处理相关问题时自然会感到更为棘手。以下是他们最关心的基本问题:

为保持公司在就业市场上的吸引力,我是否必须根据通胀情况来调整员工的工资?

一般情况下并非如此。薪酬(包括工资、带薪假期、病假、育儿假和其他福利)通常由就业市场决定,而与所有市场一样,就业市场直接反映的是供求关系,而非通胀水平,也不需要直接反映通胀水平。换个角度思考这一问题或许更容易理解:在过去十年的大部分时间里,美国的通胀水平都远低于3%,但美国公司的预算薪资平均每年仍然增加3%左右,并且“没人讨论是否应当根据通胀水平降低加薪幅度。”位于芝加哥的韦莱韬悦(Willis Towers Watson)的薪酬顾问洛丽·怀斯珀如是说道。同样,通胀上升也不必然意味着薪资上涨,不过美国许多大公司的确打算在今年提高员工的薪资水平。

就这么简单?

当然不是,不过这里需要记住一个基本原则,即:薪资水平与劳动力供需紧密相关。因此,我们需要回答的主要问题就变成了:通胀对(劳动力)供需会产生何种影响?其影响方式多种多样,包括:

通胀或许会促使那些在“大辞职”浪潮中离职的人群重返就业市场。毕竟,在新冠疫情初期大幅下降的劳动参与率现在才刚刚恢复了一半。分析师预测,剩下的一半人最终也将重返工作岗位,而高通胀或许会加快这一进程。具有讽刺意味的是,通胀导致的劳动力供给增加将给薪资带来下行压力。

同样的道理,高通胀或许还会吓到那些已经退休或计划退休的人员,在通胀从往年的2%一路飙升至7.5%之后,他们的那点储蓄(相较于实际需求)似乎变成了“杯水车薪”。约翰逊说:“眼见着医药费、房租、食品价格不断上涨,你不禁会问自己的另一半:‘现在我们真能退休么?’”如果原本打算离开就业市场的人员最终选择继续留任,那么薪资水平自然就会进一步承受下行压力。

理论上讲,通胀高企会促使劳工要求雇主提高工资,导致以当前薪资水平出售劳动力的人员出现实质性减少。但在实践中,由于潜在员工互相竞争工作机会,个人很难提出更高的薪资要求。例如,可能有求职者会认为,要想跟上通胀水平,时薪必须达到40美元,但其他人为了能有活干,可能宁愿接受39美元的时薪,如此一来,他也只能接受更低的工资水平。工会成员由于大多在合同中包含与生活成本增加相关的条款,情况有所不同。但根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据,2021年美国只有约10%的工薪工作者加入了工会,几十年来,这一数字一直不断下降。

新冠疫情对工作样态产生了深刻的影响,传统的薪资体系是否也需要进行一定的调整?

是的。实际上,远程工作转型正好给了我们“管中窥豹”的机会,从中可以看出雇主将会如何根据生活成本对薪资进行调整。2020年,Facebook(现名Meta Platforms)和谷歌(Google)宣布计划让部分员工转为远程工作,并会在制订薪资时考虑地域因素。2020年5月,Facebook的首席执行官马克·扎克伯格对员工表示:“我们会根据你所在的地区对薪资进行调整。”并补充说:“如有说谎,将会面临严重后果。”

这种模式并未在许多行业流行开来。新冠疫情爆发前也有很多公司在不同地区执行不同的薪资标准,但原因大多并非出于生活成本的考虑,而是因为大家认为就业市场具有本地化或者说区域化的特点。自远程工作出现爆炸式增长以来,许多大型企业开始意识到,一些岗位能够从全国乃至全球招募人才,比如软件工程。怀斯珀说:“在某些岗位上,这些企业将会更多考虑全国平均薪资,而非区域薪资水平。”

无论何种情况,将薪资与通胀直接挂钩都会造成很大麻烦。目前的通胀率为全国平均数字,但各地区差异极大:坦帕-圣彼得堡-克利尔沃特地区为9.6%。纽约市-纽瓦克-泽西城地区则为5.1%。后者的通胀虽然相对较低,但生活成本却高出许多。试想一下,当纽约的员工发现坦帕市的同事的加薪幅度几乎是他们的两倍时,会做出何种反应。

企业能否通过承诺根据通胀调整薪资成为员工心中的理想雇主?

虽然看起来颇为诱人,但也有人认为此种做法可能并不明智。雇主应该保证向员工提供相对于市场和员工技能具有竞争力的薪资,但应该避免承诺根据通胀调整员工薪资。约翰逊说:“通胀飙升是迟早的事情,经济也不会一直欣欣向荣,届时你将无法继续履行自己的诺言,不就等同于在撒谎么?”(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

随着美国通胀一路飙升、再创历史新高,民众的生活压力日益增大,加之劳动力长期短缺,美国雇主一直在纠结是否应当启动加薪。

艾伦·约翰逊供职于Johnson Associates,这是一家位于纽约市、为大公司提供薪酬方面建议的咨询公司,他说:“过去三个月,我就该问题开过的会比前20年都多。”

美国于2月10日公布的1月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨7.5%,创40年以来新高,让美国人的钱包严重缩水。不过,在决定是否加薪时,管理层需要考虑诸多因素,有时最终决定甚至会与我们的直觉相反,加之受到新冠疫情的影响,相关决策变得更为复杂。由于现今掌舵各家企业的高管很少有人在1982年(上一次出现高通胀的时间)便已经进入管理层,所以在处理相关问题时自然会感到更为棘手。以下是他们最关心的基本问题:

为保持公司在就业市场上的吸引力,我是否必须根据通胀情况来调整员工的工资?

一般情况下并非如此。薪酬(包括工资、带薪假期、病假、育儿假和其他福利)通常由就业市场决定,而与所有市场一样,就业市场直接反映的是供求关系,而非通胀水平,也不需要直接反映通胀水平。换个角度思考这一问题或许更容易理解:在过去十年的大部分时间里,美国的通胀水平都远低于3%,但美国公司的预算薪资平均每年仍然增加3%左右,并且“没人讨论是否应当根据通胀水平降低加薪幅度。”位于芝加哥的韦莱韬悦(Willis Towers Watson)的薪酬顾问洛丽·怀斯珀如是说道。同样,通胀上升也不必然意味着薪资上涨,不过美国许多大公司的确打算在今年提高员工的薪资水平。

就这么简单?

当然不是,不过这里需要记住一个基本原则,即:薪资水平与劳动力供需紧密相关。因此,我们需要回答的主要问题就变成了:通胀对(劳动力)供需会产生何种影响?其影响方式多种多样,包括:

通胀或许会促使那些在“大辞职”浪潮中离职的人群重返就业市场。毕竟,在新冠疫情初期大幅下降的劳动参与率现在才刚刚恢复了一半。分析师预测,剩下的一半人最终也将重返工作岗位,而高通胀或许会加快这一进程。具有讽刺意味的是,通胀导致的劳动力供给增加将给薪资带来下行压力。

同样的道理,高通胀或许还会吓到那些已经退休或计划退休的人员,在通胀从往年的2%一路飙升至7.5%之后,他们的那点储蓄(相较于实际需求)似乎变成了“杯水车薪”。约翰逊说:“眼见着医药费、房租、食品价格不断上涨,你不禁会问自己的另一半:‘现在我们真能退休么?’”如果原本打算离开就业市场的人员最终选择继续留任,那么薪资水平自然就会进一步承受下行压力。

理论上讲,通胀高企会促使劳工要求雇主提高工资,导致以当前薪资水平出售劳动力的人员出现实质性减少。但在实践中,由于潜在员工互相竞争工作机会,个人很难提出更高的薪资要求。例如,可能有求职者会认为,要想跟上通胀水平,时薪必须达到40美元,但其他人为了能有活干,可能宁愿接受39美元的时薪,如此一来,他也只能接受更低的工资水平。工会成员由于大多在合同中包含与生活成本增加相关的条款,情况有所不同。但根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据,2021年美国只有约10%的工薪工作者加入了工会,几十年来,这一数字一直不断下降。

新冠疫情对工作样态产生了深刻的影响,传统的薪资体系是否也需要进行一定的调整?

是的。实际上,远程工作转型正好给了我们“管中窥豹”的机会,从中可以看出雇主将会如何根据生活成本对薪资进行调整。2020年,Facebook(现名Meta Platforms)和谷歌(Google)宣布计划让部分员工转为远程工作,并会在制订薪资时考虑地域因素。2020年5月,Facebook的首席执行官马克·扎克伯格对员工表示:“我们会根据你所在的地区对薪资进行调整。”并补充说:“如有说谎,将会面临严重后果。”

这种模式并未在许多行业流行开来。新冠疫情爆发前也有很多公司在不同地区执行不同的薪资标准,但原因大多并非出于生活成本的考虑,而是因为大家认为就业市场具有本地化或者说区域化的特点。自远程工作出现爆炸式增长以来,许多大型企业开始意识到,一些岗位能够从全国乃至全球招募人才,比如软件工程。怀斯珀说:“在某些岗位上,这些企业将会更多考虑全国平均薪资,而非区域薪资水平。”

无论何种情况,将薪资与通胀直接挂钩都会造成很大麻烦。目前的通胀率为全国平均数字,但各地区差异极大:坦帕-圣彼得堡-克利尔沃特地区为9.6%。纽约市-纽瓦克-泽西城地区则为5.1%。后者的通胀虽然相对较低,但生活成本却高出许多。试想一下,当纽约的员工发现坦帕市的同事的加薪幅度几乎是他们的两倍时,会做出何种反应。

企业能否通过承诺根据通胀调整薪资成为员工心中的理想雇主?

虽然看起来颇为诱人,但也有人认为此种做法可能并不明智。雇主应该保证向员工提供相对于市场和员工技能具有竞争力的薪资,但应该避免承诺根据通胀调整员工薪资。约翰逊说:“通胀飙升是迟早的事情,经济也不会一直欣欣向荣,届时你将无法继续履行自己的诺言,不就等同于在撒谎么?”(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

With U.S. inflation surging to new heights, and a long-running labor shortage, employers are grappling with the decision to increase wages as workers struggle to keep pace with the rising cost of living.

“I’ve had more discussions about this in the last three months than in 20 years,” says Alan Johnson, whose New York City consulting firm Johnson Associates advises major companies on pay.

Consumer price index data released on February 10 showed that inflation in January accelerated to a 40-year high of 7.5% and is hitting Americans’ wallets hard. But determining whether to hike pay is multipronged, sometimes counterintuitive, and complicated by its own pandemic twist. It’s especially vexing for today’s corporate leaders, few of whom were running a business in 1982, the last time inflation was this high. Their concerns center on a few basic queries:

Do I have to adjust wages for inflation to be competitive in the labor market?

Generally speaking, no. Compensation—encompassing salary, paid time off, sick leave, parental leave, and other benefits—is often determined by the labor market, which, like all markets, reflects supply and demand. It doesn’t directly reflect inflation, nor does it need to. Think of it this way: For most of the past decade, U.S. companies have budgeted annual salary increases of about 3% on average. Inflation rates have been well below 3% for most of that time, yet “there was no talk about lowering salary budgets to meet them,” says Lori Wisper, a compensation consultant at Willis Towers Watson in Chicago. Similarly, pay doesn’t necessarily have to rise just because inflation goes up—but many large employers do plan to raise salaries this year.

Is it really that simple?

Of course not, but it’s worth remembering the bedrock principle that compensation is inextricably linked to the supply of and demand for workers. For that reason, the main question to answer is how inflation might affect supply and demand. It could happen in various ways:

Inflation could prompt those who took part in the Great Resignation to return to work. After all, labor force participation, which plunged in the pandemic’s early days, has only made a halfway comeback. Analysts predict the remaining half will eventually return to work, but higher inflation could incentivize them to act sooner. Ironically, an inflation-induced increase in labor supply would put downward pressure on pay.

In the same way, high inflation may frighten retirees, or those planning to retire, whose nest eggs look alarmingly inadequate at 7.5% inflation versus the 2% inflation of years past. “If you’re hearing medical bills are going up, rent’s going up, food’s going up, you look at your significant other and say, ‘Is this really the time we want to walk away from our jobs?’” Johnson says. If workers who would otherwise leave the job market stay, the effect will again be downward pressure on pay.

In theory, inflation prompts workers to demand higher wages, effectively reducing labor supply at current wage rates. But in practice, prospective employees compete with one another for jobs, making it difficult for individuals to make higher pay demands stick. For example, a job candidate who determines that keeping up with inflation requires an hourly wage of $40 might be undercut by others willing to accept $39 rather than be jobless. Union members are another matter, since most have cost-of-living increases in their contracts. But only about 10% of U.S. wage and salary workers belonged to unions last year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a percentage that has been on the decline for decades.

The pandemic changed work dramatically. Doesn’t that mean traditional rules of pay also need to change?

Yes. In fact, the shift to remote work offers a preview of how employers are adjusting pay to reflect cost of living. Facebook (now Meta Platforms) and Google announced plans in 2020 to let some employees work remotely, with pay partly based on geography. “We’ll adjust salary to your location,” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees in May 2020, adding that there would be “severe ramifications for people who are not honest about this.”

The model has not caught on across industries. Pre-pandemic, most employers paid workers in different locations varying salaries not because of living costs, but because labor markets were presumed to be local or regional. Since the explosion of remote work, major employers have come to realize that for some jobs, such as software engineering, the labor market is national or even global. “Companies will start using more national-average-type pay rates versus geographically driven pay rates for some jobs,” Wisper says.

Explicitly tying pay to inflation would be painfully troublesome in any case. The current inflation rate is a national average of widely divergent localities: 9.6% in the Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater area and 5.1% in the New York City–Newark–Jersey City area. Yet living costs are far higher in the latter area. Imagine the response when employees in New York find out Tampa-based colleagues are getting a raise that almost doubles theirs.

Can a company become an employer of choice by promising to keep wages inflation-adjusted?

While tempting, some say the decision may not be wise. Employers should pledge to offer salaries that are competitive in relation to the marketplace and employees’ skills. But they should refrain from promising to keep wages inflation-adjusted, Johnson says. “Sooner or later inflation will spike, the economy will tank, and then you can’t afford it. Now you’ve lied to people.”

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