2021年,美国就业市场的招聘人数再创新高,很多企业使尽浑身解数招人,在此背景下,一些工人也获得了多年以来最大幅度的加薪。不过尽管他们的工资有所增长,但由于美国当前的通胀问题愈演愈烈,人们的生活水平很可能并没有得到实际的改善。
据美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)统计,今年2月,美国的通胀问题继续发酵,2月美国的消费价格指数同比上涨7.9%,创下自20世纪80年代初以来的最高纪录。本轮物价上涨的主因是汽油、食品和租金价格的上涨。受乌克兰战争影响,汽油价格很有可能进一步上涨,因此美国的通胀预计将进一步恶化。
Pantheon Economics公司的经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森在一篇研究文章中指出:“2月美国的总体通胀率并未突破8%的预期,但相差仅为十分之一,不过3月它就会轻松突破这一大关。”他预计3月美国的通胀率将达到顶点,具体应该在8.2%到8.4%之间。
这对普通美国老百姓来说无疑是一个坏消息——虽然2021年很多人都在“大辞职潮”(Great Resignation)中跳槽到了更高薪的岗位上。2021年,全美的薪资涨幅达到4.5%,是多年来工资涨幅最大的一次,但这仍然远远没有跟上物价上涨的速度。2021年,工人的薪资涨幅必须达到6%以上,才能够跟上物价的实际增长。因此我们说,工人们的工资可能确实是增长了,但他们买得起的东西却更少了。
企业点评网站Glassdoor的高级经济学家丹尼尔·赵指出:“有些工人表示,通胀让他们的生活雪上加霜。还有一些工人认为,他们今年应当得到更高的加薪,因为他们还要顶上那些在‘大辞职潮’中跳槽的同事的工作。”
第一资本公司(Capital One)的消费情报主管梅丽莎·比尔登称,当前美国的通胀问题给低收入家庭带来的影响尤为突出。第一资本公司最近对美国各收入群体收入状况的抽样调查显示,过去三个月,在年收入低于2.5万美元的低收入群体中,只有不到10%的人的非绩效工资有所上涨,或是拿到了奖金。但在年收入10万美元以上的群体中,涨薪比例则达到了30%。换言之,高收入者的涨薪几率是低收入者的三倍,所以他们更可以从容应对生活成本的上涨。
同时,通胀也让所有美国人感到了切肤之痛。第一资本公司的报告显示,今年1月,有26%的消费者至少无力支付一笔账单,62%的受访者因为通胀而削减了自己的可支配支出。
比尔登说:“所有收入群体都感受到了通胀的影响,而且他们发现收入的增长并未跟上物价的涨幅。”
因此,高通胀给了工人要求今年更大幅度加薪的理由,工人们必然要在今年的工资谈判中提出更高要求。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)在2021年12月发布的一份报告预计,2022年企业的薪资涨幅将逼近4%。如果正如谢泼德森等经济学家预计的那样,未来几个月美国通胀确实将有所放缓,那么工人们或许真的就将迎来实际工资和购买力的增长。
企业点评网站Glassdoor的高级经济学家丹尼尔·赵建议道,既然现在的就业市场如此火热,工人们如果在当前这份工作中得不到加薪,那么跳槽也是一个很好的选择。
他说:“有了其他选择,工人们就能够更有底气与现在的雇主谈判。而为了留住人才,雇主们也会更加重视员工的意见,并且尽量满足他们的薪资要求。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
2021年,美国就业市场的招聘人数再创新高,很多企业使尽浑身解数招人,在此背景下,一些工人也获得了多年以来最大幅度的加薪。不过尽管他们的工资有所增长,但由于美国当前的通胀问题愈演愈烈,人们的生活水平很可能并没有得到实际的改善。
据美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)统计,今年2月,美国的通胀问题继续发酵,2月美国的消费价格指数同比上涨7.9%,创下自20世纪80年代初以来的最高纪录。本轮物价上涨的主因是汽油、食品和租金价格的上涨。受乌克兰战争影响,汽油价格很有可能进一步上涨,因此美国的通胀预计将进一步恶化。
Pantheon Economics公司的经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森在一篇研究文章中指出:“2月美国的总体通胀率并未突破8%的预期,但相差仅为十分之一,不过3月它就会轻松突破这一大关。”他预计3月美国的通胀率将达到顶点,具体应该在8.2%到8.4%之间。
这对普通美国老百姓来说无疑是一个坏消息——虽然2021年很多人都在“大辞职潮”(Great Resignation)中跳槽到了更高薪的岗位上。2021年,全美的薪资涨幅达到4.5%,是多年来工资涨幅最大的一次,但这仍然远远没有跟上物价上涨的速度。2021年,工人的薪资涨幅必须达到6%以上,才能够跟上物价的实际增长。因此我们说,工人们的工资可能确实是增长了,但他们买得起的东西却更少了。
企业点评网站Glassdoor的高级经济学家丹尼尔·赵指出:“有些工人表示,通胀让他们的生活雪上加霜。还有一些工人认为,他们今年应当得到更高的加薪,因为他们还要顶上那些在‘大辞职潮’中跳槽的同事的工作。”
第一资本公司(Capital One)的消费情报主管梅丽莎·比尔登称,当前美国的通胀问题给低收入家庭带来的影响尤为突出。第一资本公司最近对美国各收入群体收入状况的抽样调查显示,过去三个月,在年收入低于2.5万美元的低收入群体中,只有不到10%的人的非绩效工资有所上涨,或是拿到了奖金。但在年收入10万美元以上的群体中,涨薪比例则达到了30%。换言之,高收入者的涨薪几率是低收入者的三倍,所以他们更可以从容应对生活成本的上涨。
同时,通胀也让所有美国人感到了切肤之痛。第一资本公司的报告显示,今年1月,有26%的消费者至少无力支付一笔账单,62%的受访者因为通胀而削减了自己的可支配支出。
比尔登说:“所有收入群体都感受到了通胀的影响,而且他们发现收入的增长并未跟上物价的涨幅。”
因此,高通胀给了工人要求今年更大幅度加薪的理由,工人们必然要在今年的工资谈判中提出更高要求。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)在2021年12月发布的一份报告预计,2022年企业的薪资涨幅将逼近4%。如果正如谢泼德森等经济学家预计的那样,未来几个月美国通胀确实将有所放缓,那么工人们或许真的就将迎来实际工资和购买力的增长。
企业点评网站Glassdoor的高级经济学家丹尼尔·赵建议道,既然现在的就业市场如此火热,工人们如果在当前这份工作中得不到加薪,那么跳槽也是一个很好的选择。
他说:“有了其他选择,工人们就能够更有底气与现在的雇主谈判。而为了留住人才,雇主们也会更加重视员工的意见,并且尽量满足他们的薪资要求。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
Some workers secured their largest raises in years in 2021 as companies competed to retain employees amid record-high job openings. But while the number on workers' paychecks might be higher, it's not going as far as they might have hoped, thanks to staggeringly high inflation in the U.S.
February continued the months-long streak of record-setting inflation: U.S. consumer prices were up 7.9% compared to a year ago, the highest increase since the early 1980s, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gas, food, and rent prices drove the increase. And with gas prices likely to keep rising because of the war in Ukraine, inflation is expected to get even worse.
"Headline inflation dodged the 8% bullet in February, but only by a tenth, and it will break that barrier quite comfortably in March," Ian Shepherdson, economist at Pantheon Economics, wrote in a research note. He expects inflation to reach a peak between 8.2% to 8.4% next month.
All of this is bad news for the average American—even many of those who were able to move to a better-paying job in the past year amid the so-called Great Resignation. The national average raise was 4.5% in 2021, the biggest hike in years but nowhere near enough to keep pace with rising prices. In 2021, workers would have had to receive at least a 6% pay hike to keep up with inflation in real terms. Workers might be earning more, but they can afford less.
“Some employees report that inflation adds insult to injury," says Daniel Zhao, senior economist at employee review site Glassdoor. And some "employees feel like they deserve larger raises than usual this year as they filled in for coworkers who resigned during the Great Resignation.”
The affordability pressures are especially painful for lower-income Americans, says Melissa Bearden, head of consumer intelligence at Capital One: 10% of those earning less than $25,000 per year received a non-performance-based raise or bonus in the past three months, compared to 30% of those earning at least $100,000, according to a new analysis from the Capital One Insights Center that surveyed a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults across income groups about their finances. Higher earners are three times as likely as lower earners to say that their wages have kept up with the cost of living.
But all Americans are feeling the sting. Capital One's report found that 26% of consumers were unable to pay at least one bill in January, and 62% of respondents have reduced their discretionary spending because of inflation.
“Americans of all income levels are feeling the impact of inflation but finding comparable wage growth elusive,” says Bearden.
That said, high inflation gives employees ammunition to ask for bigger raises this year, or ask for more in the salary negotiation process. A December report from the Conference Board predicts businesses will increase pay by almost 4% in 2022. And if inflation does slow down in the coming months, as Shepherdson and other economists anticipate, then workers could finally see real wage gains and an increase in purchasing power.
If a raise at an employee's current job isn't in the cards, Zhao says the best approach is to switch companies, particularly in such a hot market.
“Having outside options in hand can also help employees negotiate with their current employers by giving them better information about their market pay and more leverage," he says. "Employers would be wise to listen to their employees and meet their salary needs in order to retain talent."