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俄乌冲突,美国的房价怎么涨了?

Tristan Bove
2022-03-15

抵押贷款利率突降导致对新房的需求激增,抬高了房价。

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今年并不是楼市的好年景。

在经历了数月的激烈竞争和高房价之后,俄乌冲突更是火上浇油,造成了待售房屋的“极度短缺”,房价进一步走高。

这是房地产经纪公司Redfin的说法。住房价格每周都在上涨,房地产经纪公司Redfin的每周更新实时反映了美国新冠疫情期间接二连三的楼市危机。

根据房地产经纪公司Redfin在3月3日发布的报告,在截至2月27日的四周内,美国房价中位数创下363975美元的历史新高,比上一年高出16%。2021年8月房市炙手可热,达到了顶点,这是自2021年8月以来房价同比涨幅最大的一次。

数月以来,房地产市场一直都很紧张。对新房的需求创下历史新高,但是新冠疫情和木材等稀缺建筑材料的供应链延迟使待售新房的数量处于历史低位。根据房地产经纪公司Redfin的报告,目前的活跃房源比2021年低24%,比2020年3月低50%,这是令人震惊的。

那么东欧地区的冲突是如何导致美国郊区的房价上涨呢?

欧洲的冲突是如何使美国房价上涨的呢?

报告中引用了房地产经纪公司Redfin的副总经济师泰勒·马尔的观点:“乌克兰冲突使全球经济震荡,导致抵押贷款利率在连续数周上涨后下降。”

较低的抵押贷款利率使得更多的购房者涌入市场,这就造成了新房竞争的瞬时激增。根据房地美公司(Freddie Mac)的数据,在乌克兰被入侵后的一周内,抵押贷款从3.89%下降到3.76%。

战争造成了全球经济的不确定性,在不确定时期,投资者倾向于从股票中撤资,转而投资政府债券,这通常被认为是更安全的持有资产的方式。

因为债券利率与抵押贷款机构的利率密切相关,当债券利率上升时,抵押贷款利率也会上升,从而导致抵押贷款整体而言较低。

在俄乌冲突之前的几周内,抵押贷款利率一直在上升,经济学家认为这将抑制竞争并为过高的房价降温。随着抵押贷款利率突降导致对新房的需求激增,冲突的消息和随后的经济不可预测性打乱了这一情况。

如果可以的话,还是等待适当时机再入手

但房地产经纪公司Redfin的住房专家认为,竞争和高房价将是暂时的,因此潜在买家可能倾向于等待适当时机再入手。

副总经济师泰勒·马尔称:“抵押贷款利率的下降应该会暂时提振购房需求,推动房价持续上涨,但如果美联储(Federal Reserve)按预期再次加息,需求可能就会下降。”

通货膨胀正在影响从住房到超市商品价格等的方方面面,美联储已经起草了在全年逐步加息的计划来抑制失控的通货膨胀,这最终有利于让抵押贷款利率回升。尽管当前的地缘政治情况并不乐观,但央行不太可能在这方面扭转趋势。

最近,美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申了他的立场:美联储的主要目标是解决通货膨胀问题,加息仍将按计划进行。

杰罗姆·鲍威尔于3月初在美国众议院金融服务委员会(House Financial Services Committee)的一次会议上说:“目前,我们将按计划谨慎行事,在这本已极具挑战性和不确定性的时刻,我们要避免增加不确定性。”(财富中文网)

译者:zhy

今年并不是楼市的好年景。

在经历了数月的激烈竞争和高房价之后,俄乌冲突更是火上浇油,造成了待售房屋的“极度短缺”,房价进一步走高。

这是房地产经纪公司Redfin的说法。住房价格每周都在上涨,房地产经纪公司Redfin的每周更新实时反映了美国新冠疫情期间接二连三的楼市危机。

根据房地产经纪公司Redfin在3月3日发布的报告,在截至2月27日的四周内,美国房价中位数创下363975美元的历史新高,比上一年高出16%。2021年8月房市炙手可热,达到了顶点,这是自2021年8月以来房价同比涨幅最大的一次。

数月以来,房地产市场一直都很紧张。对新房的需求创下历史新高,但是新冠疫情和木材等稀缺建筑材料的供应链延迟使待售新房的数量处于历史低位。根据房地产经纪公司Redfin的报告,目前的活跃房源比2021年低24%,比2020年3月低50%,这是令人震惊的。

那么东欧地区的冲突是如何导致美国郊区的房价上涨呢?

欧洲的冲突是如何使美国房价上涨的呢?

报告中引用了房地产经纪公司Redfin的副总经济师泰勒·马尔的观点:“乌克兰冲突使全球经济震荡,导致抵押贷款利率在连续数周上涨后下降。”

较低的抵押贷款利率使得更多的购房者涌入市场,这就造成了新房竞争的瞬时激增。根据房地美公司(Freddie Mac)的数据,在乌克兰被入侵后的一周内,抵押贷款从3.89%下降到3.76%。

战争造成了全球经济的不确定性,在不确定时期,投资者倾向于从股票中撤资,转而投资政府债券,这通常被认为是更安全的持有资产的方式。

因为债券利率与抵押贷款机构的利率密切相关,当债券利率上升时,抵押贷款利率也会上升,从而导致抵押贷款整体而言较低。

在俄乌冲突之前的几周内,抵押贷款利率一直在上升,经济学家认为这将抑制竞争并为过高的房价降温。随着抵押贷款利率突降导致对新房的需求激增,冲突的消息和随后的经济不可预测性打乱了这一情况。

如果可以的话,还是等待适当时机再入手

但房地产经纪公司Redfin的住房专家认为,竞争和高房价将是暂时的,因此潜在买家可能倾向于等待适当时机再入手。

副总经济师泰勒·马尔称:“抵押贷款利率的下降应该会暂时提振购房需求,推动房价持续上涨,但如果美联储(Federal Reserve)按预期再次加息,需求可能就会下降。”

通货膨胀正在影响从住房到超市商品价格等的方方面面,美联储已经起草了在全年逐步加息的计划来抑制失控的通货膨胀,这最终有利于让抵押贷款利率回升。尽管当前的地缘政治情况并不乐观,但央行不太可能在这方面扭转趋势。

最近,美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申了他的立场:美联储的主要目标是解决通货膨胀问题,加息仍将按计划进行。

杰罗姆·鲍威尔于3月初在美国众议院金融服务委员会(House Financial Services Committee)的一次会议上说:“目前,我们将按计划谨慎行事,在这本已极具挑战性和不确定性的时刻,我们要避免增加不确定性。”(财富中文网)

译者:zhy

It just isn’t housing’s year.

After months of rampant competition and high prices, the invasion of Ukraine has added even more fuel to the fire by creating an “extreme shortage” of homes for sale, driving prices even higher.

Those are the words of Redfin, the real-estate brokerage firm whose weekly updates have been a real-time catalogue of America’s pandemic-era housing crisis, with prices shooting higher each and every week.

The median home price across the country hit an all-time high of $363,975 for the four-week period ending Feb. 27, 16% higher than the previous year, according to a Redfin report published on March 3. This is the highest year-over-year increase in housing prices we have seen since last August, when the market reached a flaming-hot apex.

The real estate market has been tight for months now. Demand for new homes is at a record high, but the pandemic and supply chain delay for scarce construction materials like lumber has kept the number of new homes for sale at a historic low. Active listings right now are 24% lower than last year, and a shocking 50% lower than March 2020, according to the Redfin report.

So how does a ground war in eastern Europe translate to higher prices in the suburb close to you?

How a European war sends U.S. housing prices higher

“The war in Ukraine has rattled the global economy, causing mortgage rates to fall after weeks of increases,” Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr was quoted as saying in the report.

Lower mortgage rates makes it easier for more homebuyers to enter the market, which has created a momentary surge in competition for new houses. Mortgages fell from 3.89% to 3.76% in the week following the invasion of Ukraine, according to data from Freddie Mac.

The war has created global economic uncertainty, and in times of uncertainty, investors tend to move out of stocks and towards government bonds, generally considered to be much safer ways to hold on to assets.

Because bond rates are closely tied to the interest rates of mortgage lenders, when bond rates rise, so do mortgage interest rates, which leads to overall mortgages being lower.

Mortgage rates had been on the rise for several weeks leading up to the invasion, which economists believed would dampen competition and cool off the market’s exorbitant prices. News of the invasion and subsequent economic unpredictability has scrambled that equation, as the suddenly low mortgage rates have fueled a surge in demand for new homes.

Wait it out if you can

But Redfin housing experts believe that the competition and high prices will be temporary, so prospective buyers may be inclined to wait it out.

“The dip in mortgage rates should buoy homebuying demand temporarily, fueling continued price gains,” Marr said. “But demand may drop off if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again as expected.”

The Fed has drafted plans to implement progressively higher interest rate hikes throughout the year to temper the runaway inflation that is affecting everything from housing to supermarket prices in the U.S., which would eventually bring mortgage rates back up. And despite the current geopolitical circumstances, it is unlikely that the central bank will reverse course on this.

Fed chair Jerome Powell recently reiterated his stance that inflation is the prime target that needs to be addressed by the agency, and the hikes in interest rates will still happen as planned.

“For now, I would say that we will proceed carefully along the lines of that plan,” Powell said at a House Financial Services Committee meeting last week. “We’re going to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain moment.”

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