美国通胀率创40年新高，但经济学家预测实际可能更糟
WILL DANIEL
2022-03-21
2月，美国通胀率升至40多年来的新高，物价上涨使消费者受到严重影响。
据劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics，BLS）的数据显示，消费物价指数（CPI）同比上涨7.9%，为1982年1月以来的最高水平。CPI衡量了普通美国人使用的各类商品和服务的价格。
消费物价仅2月就上涨了0.8%。这超出了道琼斯（Dow Jones）调查的经济学家们之前的预估。据CNBC报道，经济学家们曾预测消费物价将环比上涨0.7%，年同比上涨7.8%。
食品价格是引发通胀率上升的主要原因之一，家庭食品价格同比上涨8.6%，这是自2020年4月疫情初期以来的单月最大涨幅。
能源价格同比涨幅达到惊人的25.6%，2月环比上涨了3.5%，许多经济学家预测能源价格将继续走高。
虽然食品和汽油价格波动确实推动了通胀率升高，但核心通胀率上升6.4%，表明目前美国的物价正在全面上涨。核心通胀率衡量了不含能源和食品的CPI变化。
经济学家警告，消费者的生活成本可能继续增加。
剑桥大学王后学院（Queen’s College Cambridge）院长、对冲基金Gramercy Funds高级顾问穆罕默德·埃里安在周四写道：“几周前，人们还希望这些数据代表本轮通胀已达到高潮。但现在没有人这样想。面对众多的价格压力，即使目前通胀率已经升至40年新高，未来依旧可能继续升高。”
2月底，俄罗斯在乌克兰发起军事行动，因此专家警告，最新的通胀数据并没有完全体现世界经济的混乱局面。
咨询机构Naroff Economics LLC的首席经济学家乔尔·纳罗夫周四对《华尔街日报》表示：“我们以为，尤其是随着全球供应链问题得到解决，通胀率必定下降，但我们没有预料到在乌克兰发生的状况会再次引发供应链紧张。”
俄乌冲突爆发后，汽油价格暴涨，可能导致下个月的通胀率持续攀升。
布朗奇谢恩财富管理公司（Blanke Schein Wealth Management）首席投资官罗伯特·沙因对雅虎财经表示：“周四的通胀数据进一步证实，通胀上涨既不是暂时性的，也没有达到最高点。周四公布的是二月的通胀数据，并没有考虑到三月初的油价暴涨。”
尽管物价飙升，但工资水平似乎并没有同步上涨。
劳工统计局的数据显示，2月，由于消费物价上涨，通胀调整后平均时薪下降了0.8%，较去年同比下降了2.6%。
银率网（Bankrate）首席金融分析师格雷格·麦克布莱德周二在一封邮件中写道：“薪酬的逐步上涨，与美国家庭面临的租金、食品、电力、汽油等各类商品和服务的成本上涨并不同步。美国人的购买力每天都在下降，这一点从低迷的消费者信心数据中可见一斑。”
去年，汽车成本上涨一度推高了通胀率，近期确实表现出上涨速度放缓的迹象。二手车和卡车价格环比下降0.2%，这是自2021年9月以来首次环比下降。但同比涨幅依旧高达41.2%，而新车价格也同比上涨了12.4%，令消费者头痛不已。
随着奥密克戎疫情引发的恐慌逐渐消除，政府解除疫情限制措施，增加了航空出行，使机票价格同比上涨了5.2%，2月的涨幅较1月提高了一倍以上。机票价格还可能继续上涨，因为随着俄罗斯石油遭到制裁，未来几个月航空燃油价格预计将大幅上涨。
2月，房价同比上涨4.7%。
周四上午最新通胀数据发布之后，美国总统拜登很快发表了一份声明，宣扬美国就业市场正在强势复苏，并将最近的物价上涨归咎于俄罗斯。
“本月通胀的一个重要因素是石油和能源价格上涨，这是源于市场对普京之激进行动的反应，”拜登写道。“但美国人民要知道一点：我们对普京及其亲信施加的代价，远比我们面临的代价更具破坏性。”（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
2月，美国通胀率升至40多年来的新高，物价上涨使消费者受到严重影响。
据劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics，BLS）的数据显示，消费物价指数（CPI）同比上涨7.9%，为1982年1月以来的最高水平。CPI衡量了普通美国人使用的各类商品和服务的价格。
消费物价仅2月就上涨了0.8%。这超出了道琼斯（Dow Jones）调查的经济学家们之前的预估。据CNBC报道，经济学家们曾预测消费物价将环比上涨0.7%，年同比上涨7.8%。
食品价格是引发通胀率上升的主要原因之一，家庭食品价格同比上涨8.6%，这是自2020年4月疫情初期以来的单月最大涨幅。
能源价格同比涨幅达到惊人的25.6%，2月环比上涨了3.5%，许多经济学家预测能源价格将继续走高。
虽然食品和汽油价格波动确实推动了通胀率升高，但核心通胀率上升6.4%，表明目前美国的物价正在全面上涨。核心通胀率衡量了不含能源和食品的CPI变化。
经济学家警告，消费者的生活成本可能继续增加。
剑桥大学王后学院（Queen’s College Cambridge）院长、对冲基金Gramercy Funds高级顾问穆罕默德·埃里安在周四写道：“几周前，人们还希望这些数据代表本轮通胀已达到高潮。但现在没有人这样想。面对众多的价格压力，即使目前通胀率已经升至40年新高，未来依旧可能继续升高。”
2月底，俄罗斯在乌克兰发起军事行动，因此专家警告，最新的通胀数据并没有完全体现世界经济的混乱局面。
咨询机构Naroff Economics LLC的首席经济学家乔尔·纳罗夫周四对《华尔街日报》表示：“我们以为，尤其是随着全球供应链问题得到解决，通胀率必定下降，但我们没有预料到在乌克兰发生的状况会再次引发供应链紧张。”
俄乌冲突爆发后，汽油价格暴涨，可能导致下个月的通胀率持续攀升。
布朗奇谢恩财富管理公司（Blanke Schein Wealth Management）首席投资官罗伯特·沙因对雅虎财经表示：“周四的通胀数据进一步证实，通胀上涨既不是暂时性的，也没有达到最高点。周四公布的是二月的通胀数据，并没有考虑到三月初的油价暴涨。”
尽管物价飙升，但工资水平似乎并没有同步上涨。
劳工统计局的数据显示，2月，由于消费物价上涨，通胀调整后平均时薪下降了0.8%，较去年同比下降了2.6%。
银率网（Bankrate）首席金融分析师格雷格·麦克布莱德周二在一封邮件中写道：“薪酬的逐步上涨，与美国家庭面临的租金、食品、电力、汽油等各类商品和服务的成本上涨并不同步。美国人的购买力每天都在下降，这一点从低迷的消费者信心数据中可见一斑。”
去年，汽车成本上涨一度推高了通胀率，近期确实表现出上涨速度放缓的迹象。二手车和卡车价格环比下降0.2%，这是自2021年9月以来首次环比下降。但同比涨幅依旧高达41.2%，而新车价格也同比上涨了12.4%，令消费者头痛不已。
随着奥密克戎疫情引发的恐慌逐渐消除，政府解除疫情限制措施，增加了航空出行，使机票价格同比上涨了5.2%，2月的涨幅较1月提高了一倍以上。机票价格还可能继续上涨，因为随着俄罗斯石油遭到制裁，未来几个月航空燃油价格预计将大幅上涨。
2月，房价同比上涨4.7%。
周四上午最新通胀数据发布之后，美国总统拜登很快发表了一份声明，宣扬美国就业市场正在强势复苏，并将最近的物价上涨归咎于俄罗斯。
“本月通胀的一个重要因素是石油和能源价格上涨，这是源于市场对普京之激进行动的反应，”拜登写道。“但美国人民要知道一点：我们对普京及其亲信施加的代价，远比我们面临的代价更具破坏性。”（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Consumers were hit hard by rising prices in February as inflation rose to a level not seen in more than four decades.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures a wide-ranging basket of goods and services used by the average American, jumped 7.9% over the last year, the highest rate since January of 1982, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Consumer prices jumped 0.8% in February alone. That’s higher than previous estimates from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, who had predicted a 0.7% monthly rise in consumer prices and 7.8% year-over-year gain, CNBC reported.
Food prices were a big contributor to inflation, as food costs at home rose 8.6% over the past year, buoyed by the fastest monthly gains since April 2020 at the start of the pandemic.
The energy index also skyrocketed a whopping 25.6% year-over-year, and 3.5% in February alone, as many economists predict the figure will only move higher.
But while volatile food and gas prices did contribute to rising inflation, core inflation, which measures changes in the CPI without energy and food, rose 6.4%, showing that prices are up across the board.
Economists warned this might not be the end of rising costs for consumers.
“It was hoped a few weeks ago that these readings would mark the high of this inflation episode. No longer,” Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queen’s College Cambridge and senior adviser at Gramercy Funds, wrote on Thursday. “With so many price pressures in the pipeline, even this 40-year high print will go higher.”
Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February, so experts are warning the latest inflation numbers likely don’t fully encapsulate the economic mayhem that is causing worldwide.
“We thought that inflation would come down, especially due to the untangling of the global supply chain, but we don’t know how what’s happening in Ukraine will re-tangle that,” Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC, told the WSJ on Thursday.
After the invasion, gas prices have only gotten worse, and are likely to push next month’s inflation numbers even higher.
"Thursday's inflation data is continued confirmation that inflation is not transitory and has not peaked,” Robert Schein, CIO of Blanke Schein Wealth Management, told Yahoo Finance. “Thursday's data is for February, which does not account for the early March spike in oil prices."
And even though prices are higher, it doesn’t look like wages are keeping pace.
Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings took a 0.8% hit in February as a result of rising consumer prices, adding to a 2.6% decline over the past year, according to data from the BLS.
“Robust pay increases have been no match for the higher costs households are facing on rent, food, electricity, gasoline, and a pervasive list of both goods and services," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, wrote in an email on Tuesday. "The buying power of Americans is being squeezed more and more each day, and you see this reality reflected in the dour consumer sentiment readings.”
Vehicle costs, which have driven inflation over the past year, did show some signs of slowing. Used car and truck prices were down 0.2% month-over-month in their first monthly decline since September of 2021. Still, prices are up an incredible 41.2% over the past year, with new car prices also causing pain for the consumer, up 12.4% on an annual basis.
Airfares also more than doubled their January monthly gains, rising 5.2% over the year as fading Omicron fears and easing restrictions led to increased air travel. Those prices are likely to go up even more, as the price of jet fuel is expected to increase significantly over the next few months following sanctions on Russian oil.
Housing costs also jumped in February, increasing by 4.7% compared to a year ago.
President Biden released a statement soon after the new inflation numbers were released Thursday morning touting a strong jobs recovery and pointing the finger at Russia for the latest price increases.
“A large contributor to inflation this month was an increase in gas and energy prices as markets reacted to Putin’s aggressive actions,” Biden wrote. “Americans can know this: the costs we are imposing on Putin and his cronies are far more devastating than the costs we are facing.”
财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可，禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
