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加息“如约而至”,美国人的钱包大受影响

Alicia Adamczyk
2022-03-23

这是美联储三年来首次上调联邦基金利率,也是其自新冠疫情爆发之初采取“零利率”以来的首次调整。

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史无前例的高通胀让美国的消费者深受其苦,为缓解通胀压力,美联储(Federal Reserve)于3月16日批准加息0.25个百分点。

乍一看,这似乎无足轻重,但需要注意的是,这是美联储三年来首次上调联邦基金利率,也是其自新冠疫情爆发之初采取“零利率”以来的首次调整。今年2月,美国的通胀率较2021年同期飙升7.9%,各界对经济衰退的担心日益加剧,在此背景之下,经历数月讨论之后,美联储最终做出此次加息决定。受乌克兰危机和持续的供应链问题影响,经济学家预计,未来几个月(美国)通胀率将继续走高。

美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔于3月16日在新闻发布会上说:“我们对通胀和通胀预期面临进一步上行压力的风险非常关注。委员会决心采取必要措施,恢复物格稳定。美国经济非常强劲,完全有能力应对收紧货币政策所会产生的影响。”

美联储希望通过提高借贷成本来促使消费者减少消费,从而拉低商品价格。对冲基金顾问Macro Intelligence 2 Partners(简称MI2)的总裁及联合创始人朱利安·布里格登表示,美联储上调基准利率传递出了美国整体经济需要降温的信号。此举有助于稳定经济。2022年全年,美联储可能再加息数次。

布里格登称:“高通胀已经对普通人的生活产生了影响,我们现在的做法不可持续。”

而加息引发的连锁反应会波及家庭预算,从多个方面影响普通美国人的钱包。

信用卡债务

美国非盈利组织负责任贷款中心(Center for Responsible Lending)的高级研究员戴维·西尔伯曼认为,美联储加息将会导致浮动计息信用卡债务的年化利率(APR)随之走高,这也是其最直接的影响。

虽然加息幅度仅为0.25个百分点,但债务人的最低还款额仍然会有所提升,而且债务人还清欠款所需花费的时长也会增加。消费者的还款额具体增加多少则取决于其债务规模和贷款利率(CreditCards.com提供的数据显示,全美平均年化利率为16.17%)。

“有些人现在只还最低还款额,因为他们只能还得起这么多。”西尔伯曼说。“最低还款额的增加将会让他们的生活变得更加拮据。”

储蓄账户利息

西尔伯曼指出,银行可能会“快马加鞭”地提高信用卡利率,但在提高存款利率时,它们很可能会“磨磨蹭蹭”。“信用卡还款额(增加)指日可待,存款利率提高则尚需时日。”他说。过去,有些高收益产品可以为客户带来超过2%的利息收益,而自新冠疫情爆发以来,年化收益率(APY)最高的产品也只有0.5%左右(全美平均APY仅为0.06%)。

如果加息确实带来了存款利率的上涨,那么最先发力的就很可能是那些在全美揽储的线上银行和线上金融机构,而非传统的实体银行。

而且,即使储蓄收益有所增长,(储户持有的)现金的价值也会因为通胀影响而不断缩水。虽然我们应该留些应急资金以备不时之需,但在决定留多少钱时,还是应当考虑通胀的影响。大多数专家建议,预留三到六个月的生活费即可。

学生贷款

西伯尔曼说,由于联邦学生贷款的利率并非浮动利率,所以美联储的加息举措不会对既有贷款产生影响,但下一批入学的学生在贷款时或将需要支付更高利息。美国国会在每年7月1日确定新学年的联邦学生贷款利率。

私人贷款的利率也有可能水涨船高。如果条件允许,借款人当前或许就应当对这些贷款进行再融资,以便锁定较低的利率。

车贷及抵押贷款

美联储升息不会对车贷、房贷等长期贷款产生太大的直接影响。抵押贷款利率的涨跌取决于10年期美国国债、整体经济状况和通货膨胀等因素的共同影响。

话虽如此,抵押贷款的利率实际上也一直在缓慢上升。Bankrate提供的数据显示,当前,30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为4.27%,比几个月前高出整整一个百分点。

股市

MI2的布里格登表示,美联储加息的原因之一是要向股市发出信号:(股市)“最好的时代已经过去”。

但这并不意味着我们应该停止投资,而是说过去两年那种超常增长在未来无法持续。消费者最好立刻还掉高息负债,对债务进行再融资以便锁定较低利率,或者干脆多存些钱。

布里格登说:“现在投资需要多加小心。”流动性减少或将导致股市出现一定波动,这一点需要投资者引起注意。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

史无前例的高通胀让美国的消费者深受其苦,为缓解通胀压力,美联储(Federal Reserve)于3月16日批准加息0.25个百分点。

乍一看,这似乎无足轻重,但需要注意的是,这是美联储三年来首次上调联邦基金利率,也是其自新冠疫情爆发之初采取“零利率”以来的首次调整。今年2月,美国的通胀率较2021年同期飙升7.9%,各界对经济衰退的担心日益加剧,在此背景之下,经历数月讨论之后,美联储最终做出此次加息决定。受乌克兰危机和持续的供应链问题影响,经济学家预计,未来几个月(美国)通胀率将继续走高。

美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔于3月16日在新闻发布会上说:“我们对通胀和通胀预期面临进一步上行压力的风险非常关注。委员会决心采取必要措施,恢复物格稳定。美国经济非常强劲,完全有能力应对收紧货币政策所会产生的影响。”

美联储希望通过提高借贷成本来促使消费者减少消费,从而拉低商品价格。对冲基金顾问Macro Intelligence 2 Partners(简称MI2)的总裁及联合创始人朱利安·布里格登表示,美联储上调基准利率传递出了美国整体经济需要降温的信号。此举有助于稳定经济。2022年全年,美联储可能再加息数次。

布里格登称:“高通胀已经对普通人的生活产生了影响,我们现在的做法不可持续。”

而加息引发的连锁反应会波及家庭预算,从多个方面影响普通美国人的钱包。

信用卡债务

美国非盈利组织负责任贷款中心(Center for Responsible Lending)的高级研究员戴维·西尔伯曼认为,美联储加息将会导致浮动计息信用卡债务的年化利率(APR)随之走高,这也是其最直接的影响。

虽然加息幅度仅为0.25个百分点,但债务人的最低还款额仍然会有所提升,而且债务人还清欠款所需花费的时长也会增加。消费者的还款额具体增加多少则取决于其债务规模和贷款利率(CreditCards.com提供的数据显示,全美平均年化利率为16.17%)。

“有些人现在只还最低还款额,因为他们只能还得起这么多。”西尔伯曼说。“最低还款额的增加将会让他们的生活变得更加拮据。”

储蓄账户利息

西尔伯曼指出,银行可能会“快马加鞭”地提高信用卡利率,但在提高存款利率时,它们很可能会“磨磨蹭蹭”。“信用卡还款额(增加)指日可待,存款利率提高则尚需时日。”他说。过去,有些高收益产品可以为客户带来超过2%的利息收益,而自新冠疫情爆发以来,年化收益率(APY)最高的产品也只有0.5%左右(全美平均APY仅为0.06%)。

如果加息确实带来了存款利率的上涨,那么最先发力的就很可能是那些在全美揽储的线上银行和线上金融机构,而非传统的实体银行。

而且,即使储蓄收益有所增长,(储户持有的)现金的价值也会因为通胀影响而不断缩水。虽然我们应该留些应急资金以备不时之需,但在决定留多少钱时,还是应当考虑通胀的影响。大多数专家建议,预留三到六个月的生活费即可。

学生贷款

西伯尔曼说,由于联邦学生贷款的利率并非浮动利率,所以美联储的加息举措不会对既有贷款产生影响,但下一批入学的学生在贷款时或将需要支付更高利息。美国国会在每年7月1日确定新学年的联邦学生贷款利率。

私人贷款的利率也有可能水涨船高。如果条件允许,借款人当前或许就应当对这些贷款进行再融资,以便锁定较低的利率。

贷及抵押贷款

美联储升息不会对车贷、房贷等长期贷款产生太大的直接影响。抵押贷款利率的涨跌取决于10年期美国国债、整体经济状况和通货膨胀等因素的共同影响。

话虽如此,抵押贷款的利率实际上也一直在缓慢上升。Bankrate提供的数据显示,当前,30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为4.27%,比几个月前高出整整一个百分点。

股市

MI2的布里格登表示,美联储加息的原因之一是要向股市发出信号:(股市)“最好的时代已经过去”。

但这并不意味着我们应该停止投资,而是说过去两年那种超常增长在未来无法持续。消费者最好立刻还掉高息负债,对债务进行再融资以便锁定较低利率,或者干脆多存些钱。

布里格登说:“现在投资需要多加小心。”流动性减少或将导致股市出现一定波动,这一点需要投资者引起注意。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

To help combat the record-high inflation plaguing U.S. consumers, the Federal Reserve on March 16 approved a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase.

That might not sound like a big deal, but it's the first time the Fed has raised the Federal funds rate in three years, and the first change since it was set to zero at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. This rate hike (which has been discussed for months) is happening amid increased fears of a recession and with inflation shooting up by 7.9% in February, compared to a year ago. With the crisis in Ukraine and ongoing supply-chain issues, economists expect inflation to keep rising in the months to come.

“We are attentive to the risks of further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on March 16 during a press conference. “The committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The U.S. economy is very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.”

The hope is that increasing borrowing costs will translate into consumers spending less, which will help prices come down. The Fed raising its benchmark rate sends a signal that the broader economy needs to cool off, says Julian Brigden, president and cofounder at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners. It helps steady the economy. The Fed will likely raise rates a few more times throughout 2022.

"Things are starting to get painful for the average man on the street," says Brigden. "What we're doing at the moment is not sustainable."

But raising interest rates will have ripple effects on household budgets too. Here's how it could impact the average American’s wallet.

Credit card debt

The most immediate effect of a Fed rate hike is that the APR on variable credit card debt will increase in tandem, says David Silberman, senior fellow at the Center for Responsible Lending.

Though it will increase only by 0.25 percentage point, those with debt will end up paying more toward their minimum payments, and it will ultimately take them longer to pay off their balance(s). How much more consumers will pay depends on the size of their debt and their interest rate (the national average APR is 16.17%, according to CreditCards.com).

"Some people are paying only the minimum payment because that’s all they can afford," says Silberman. "That minimum payment is going to go up, and it’s going to be a strain on their budget."

Savings account interest

While banks will be quick to increase credit card interest rates, they will likely be slower to raise savings account yields, says Silberman. "Count on your credit card debt [rising], and hope for your savings," he says. Where high-yield savings accounts once offered customers interest rates over 2%, the most generous APYs have sat around 0.5% since the start of the pandemic (and the average nationwide APY is 0.06%).

If deposit rates do follow suit, online banks and institutions competing for customers nationwide will likely be the first to raise their rates, rather than traditional brick-and-mortars.

And even if savings yields increase somewhat, any money sitting in cash will lose some value thanks to inflation. That doesn't give you an excuse not to have an emergency fund, but it's something to keep in mind when deciding how much to stash away. Most experts recommend between three and six months’ worth of living expenses.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are not variable, so the Fed's moves won't affect existing accounts. But it could increase interest payments for loans taken out by students for the coming school year, says Silberman. Congress sets federal student loan interest rates for each upcoming school year on July 1.

Borrowers with private loans with variable rates could also see their interest rates rise. If possible, it might make sense to refinance those loans now to lock in a lower interest rate.

Auto and mortgage loans

The Fed's movement won't have much of a direct impact on longer-term loans for cars or homes. Mortgage rates fluctuate depending on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, overall economic conditions, and inflation, among other factors.

That said, interest rates for mortgages have been inching higher: The average 30-year fixed-rate is at 4.27%, according to Bankrate, more than a full percentage point higher than it was a few months ago.

Stocks

One of the reasons the Fed needs to raise rates is to signal to the stock market that "the best of times are behind you," says MI2’s Brigden.

That doesn't mean to stop investing; it simply means that the extraordinary growth of the past two years is not sustainable going forward. Consumers would be best served paying off high-interest debt, refinancing their debt to lock in a lower rate now, or simply saving more.

“It’s a time to become more cautious in your investment stance,” Brigden says. Less liquidity could trigger some volatility in the stock market, which investors should be aware of.

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