首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 领导力 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

这位亿万富翁称,美国经济衰退已经在路上

Will Daniel
2022-03-28

卡尔·伊坎特别指出,通胀率上涨的趋势令人担忧,而供应链紧张的问题仍然在持续,控制价格上涨并不容易。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

亿万富翁投资者卡尔·伊坎预计,因为消费者要和不断上升的通货膨胀作斗争,市场同时还要应对乌克兰战争带来的经济影响,未来将出现严重的经济动荡。

“我认为很有可能出现经济衰退,甚至更糟。”伊坎在3月22日向美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)的斯科特·瓦普纳表示,他还认为美国商界高管没有为即将到来的暴风雨做好准备。

“这个体系需要修正。美国企业没有问责制。有些公司非常优秀,有些首席执行官也非常优秀,但还有太多的公司不能胜任我认为是必须要完成的任务。”这位亿万富翁是伊坎企业(Icahn Enterprises)的创始人及董事长。

伊坎自称拥有超过150亿美元的净资产,是一位知名的激进投资者,时常大额买入公司股票,以改变公司业务走向。多年以来,他时常对公司治理不善的现象提出批评。

他的最新观点是,美国顶级公司对领导力的缺乏将加剧通货膨胀和地缘政治紧张对经济的影响。因此,这位亿万富翁在过去几年对他的长期投资进行了对冲,希望以此防范美国可能出现的经济衰退,而他认为这种可能性现在越来越高。

伊坎特别指出,通胀率上涨的趋势令人担忧,而供应链紧张的问题仍然在持续,控制价格上涨并不容易。

“通货膨胀一旦开始,就非常可怕。你不可能轻易把精灵放回瓶子里;这是20世纪70年代的经验之谈。”伊坎说,“过去二三十年,我们从远东进口廉价商品……我认为这样的日子已经一去不复返了。现在再加上战争,解决通胀问题难上加难。”

美国今年2月的通胀率创40年来新高,消费者价格较上年同期上涨7.9%。美联储(Federal Reserve)最近将利率上调了25个基点,试图给经济降温,抑制物价的普遍上涨。官员们表示,美联储还将进一步加息。但伊坎质疑美联储能否在不造成经济衰退的情况下控制通胀。

“我真的不确定他们能否实现软着陆。”伊坎说,“我认为会是一次硬着陆。”

尽管伊坎上周的言论针对的是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰给经济带来的影响,但这并不是他第一次警告投资者和美国经济可能在不久的将来遭受痛苦。

2021年1月,这位亿万富翁表示,当时的股价不正常,市场最终将出现大幅回调。

“我这辈子见过市场很多次疯狂上涨,很多股票价格虚高,但每一次上涨都有一点相同。最终他们会撞上一堵墙,进入痛苦的大幅回调阶段,没有人能够预测回调何时发生。但一旦出现,就要当心了。”伊坎在2021年说道。

3月22日,伊坎还讨论了散户交易和“赌博”式炒股的兴起,批评许多市场参与者没有前后一致的交易策略。

“现在的市场上有许许多多不知道自己在干什么的人,比我这辈子见过的任何时候都多。”伊坎说,“市场不完全是赌场……市场上有一些人确实是有两把刷子的,但也有许多人是真的在赌博。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

亿万富翁投资者卡尔·伊坎预计,因为消费者要和不断上升的通货膨胀作斗争,市场同时还要应对乌克兰战争带来的经济影响,未来将出现严重的经济动荡。

“我认为很有可能出现经济衰退,甚至更糟。”伊坎在3月22日向美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)的斯科特·瓦普纳表示,他还认为美国商界高管没有为即将到来的暴风雨做好准备。

“这个体系需要修正。美国企业没有问责制。有些公司非常优秀,有些首席执行官也非常优秀,但还有太多的公司不能胜任我认为是必须要完成的任务。”这位亿万富翁是伊坎企业(Icahn Enterprises)的创始人及董事长。

伊坎自称拥有超过150亿美元的净资产,是一位知名的激进投资者,时常大额买入公司股票,以改变公司业务走向。多年以来,他时常对公司治理不善的现象提出批评。

他的最新观点是,美国顶级公司对领导力的缺乏将加剧通货膨胀和地缘政治紧张对经济的影响。因此,这位亿万富翁在过去几年对他的长期投资进行了对冲,希望以此防范美国可能出现的经济衰退,而他认为这种可能性现在越来越高。

伊坎特别指出,通胀率上涨的趋势令人担忧,而供应链紧张的问题仍然在持续,控制价格上涨并不容易。

“通货膨胀一旦开始,就非常可怕。你不可能轻易把精灵放回瓶子里;这是20世纪70年代的经验之谈。”伊坎说,“过去二三十年,我们从远东进口廉价商品……我认为这样的日子已经一去不复返了。现在再加上战争,解决通胀问题难上加难。”

美国今年2月的通胀率创40年来新高,消费者价格较上年同期上涨7.9%。美联储(Federal Reserve)最近将利率上调了25个基点,试图给经济降温,抑制物价的普遍上涨。官员们表示,美联储还将进一步加息。但伊坎质疑美联储能否在不造成经济衰退的情况下控制通胀。

“我真的不确定他们能否实现软着陆。”伊坎说,“我认为会是一次硬着陆。”

尽管伊坎上周的言论针对的是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰给经济带来的影响,但这并不是他第一次警告投资者和美国经济可能在不久的将来遭受痛苦。

2021年1月,这位亿万富翁表示,当时的股价不正常,市场最终将出现大幅回调。

“我这辈子见过市场很多次疯狂上涨,很多股票价格虚高,但每一次上涨都有一点相同。最终他们会撞上一堵墙,进入痛苦的大幅回调阶段,没有人能够预测回调何时发生。但一旦出现,就要当心了。”伊坎在2021年说道。

3月22日,伊坎还讨论了散户交易和“赌博”式炒股的兴起,批评许多市场参与者没有前后一致的交易策略。

“现在的市场上有许许多多不知道自己在干什么的人,比我这辈子见过的任何时候都多。”伊坎说,“市场不完全是赌场……市场上有一些人确实是有两把刷子的,但也有许多人是真的在赌博。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn is expecting some serious economic turmoil ahead as consumers battle rising inflation and markets attempt to cope with the economic fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“I think there very well could be a recession or even worse,” Icahn told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on March 22, arguing that U.S. executives aren’t ready for the coming storm.

“The system needs fixing. There’s no accountability in corporate America. You have some very fine companies, some very fine CEOs, but far too many that are not up to the task that I think is going to be necessitated,” the founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises said.

Icahn, who boasts a net worth of over $15 billion and is known for taking activist stakes in companies in order to send them in a new direction, has long been a critic of bad corporate governance.

Now he’s arguing that a lack of leadership in top U.S. firms will exacerbate the economic repercussions of inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. As a result, the billionaire investor has kept his long-term investments hedged over the last few years, hoping to protect against the increasing likelihood of a recession in the U.S.

Icahn pointed to high inflation in particular as an alarming new trend, noting that supply-chain issues continue to persist, and controlling rising prices isn’t always an easy feat.

“Inflation is a terrible thing when it gets going. You can’t get that genie back in the bottle too easily; we saw it in the ’70s,” Icahn said. “In the last 20 or 30 years…you had cheap goods coming in from the Far East…And I think those days are over now, and you have this war going on now which adds another problem to your inflationary picture.”

U.S inflation hit a four-decade high in February with consumer prices rising 7.9% compared to a year ago. The Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates by a quarter-point in an effort to cool the economy and curb widespread price increases, and officials have indicated more hikes are set to come. But Icahn questioned whether the Fed will be able to control inflation without creating a recession.

“I really don't know if they can engineer a soft landing,” Icahn said. “I think there is going to be a rough landing.”

Although his comments last week were pinned on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent financial consequences, this isn’t Icahn’s first warning of potential pain for investors and the U.S. economy in the near future.

In January 2021, the billionaire investor said that stock prices were out of whack, and eventually the market would see a serious correction.

“In my day, I've seen a lot of wild rallies with a lot of mispriced stocks, but there's always one thing they all have in common. Eventually, they hit a wall and go into a major painful correction, and nobody can predict when it will happen. But when it does, look out below,” Icahn said in 2021.

On March 22, Icahn also discussed the rise of retail trading and “gambling” in the stock market, criticizing many market participants for their lack of a consistent strategy.

“You have a lot of people in this market, I think more than I've ever seen, who have no idea what they're doing,” the billionaire investor said. “The market is not a gambling casino completely…There are people in this market that do have an edge, and you have so many people out there that really are gambling.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开