除非你有神童般的资质,能够在1982年时坐到经理的位置,否则你就无法见证当年的通货膨胀率可以上升到如此地步。
一方面,如此长时间的节制对消费者和企业来说是一件幸事。而另一方面,大多数的管理者还不擅长如何引导公司熬过高通胀时期,毕竟伴随着高通胀而来的就是物价飙升和涨工资的诉求,这些都是令管理者头疼的问题。
好消息是,虽然没有现成的应急手册教我们如何应对104年来第一次全球新冠肺炎疫情、77年来欧洲大陆国家之间的第一次战争或45年来最低的劳动力参与率,但通货膨胀并不是什么新鲜事。如果企业高层和领导者们能够熟练应对当下的经济波动,那么几乎可以肯定的是,他们会在未来几年中获得更高的利润率,并远超竞争对手。下文便列出了现在应该采取的关键步骤。
认清现实:通货膨胀的持续时间可能比你想象的更长
今年3月初,美联储(Federal Reserve)的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔向美国国会表示:“我们仍然预计通胀会在今年内下降。”然而,仅仅过了一周,美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)就报告称通胀率已经从7.5%跃升至7.9%。还未考虑俄乌冲突导致油价上涨的因素,这一数字就已经很高。分析师预测通胀将在未来数月内保持高位,甚至可能还会进一步上升。有些公司的管理者预计通胀将会一直持续,可能长达四年之久,他们正在着手准备应对更令人沮丧的情况。美国企业界对通胀情况进行预测的意义十分重大,因为通胀的实际情况也会受到预期状况的影响。如果消费者和企业根据持续通胀的预期采取行动,那就说明他们的预期会是正确的。
通货膨胀的情况似乎已经开始自我恶化,各路公司经常抢先一步涨价,工人们也纷纷要求涨工资。香奈儿(Chanel)、路威酩轩(LVMH)旗下的路易威登(Louis Vuitton)以及其他拥有强大定价权的奢侈品品牌,最近已经涨价20%甚至更多,远远超过了迄今为止的通货膨胀率。同样地,那些能够轻松提价的软件制造商可能也会效仿奢侈品品牌的这一做法。
尽管美联储正在考虑是否要采取大幅加息的措施来抑制通胀,一些行业仍然面临持续吃紧的状况。因此无论美联储的短期反应如何,它们都会抬高物价。新的半导体工厂需要数年时间才可以建成,劳动力短缺情况也比预测持续时间更长。另外,在整个经济供应链中,作为关键环节的航运业面临着缺少数万名卡车司机的现实。
尽管鲍威尔在对抗通胀方面的态度变得十分强硬,但如今的全球环境仍然面临许多未知。3月21日,鲍威尔承认美联储在预期通胀方面远远落后于通胀曲线,且美联储在解决物价上涨问题上行动迟缓。至少到2022年就应该做好规划以应对顽固的通胀,这才是审慎的做法。
高度重视现金
比起任何其他时期的经济环境,当下可以说是“现金为王”。在高通胀时期,因为成本上升等因素,公司需要更多的现金来支付费用。公司希望暂缓支付,消费者也现金拮据,于是众企业只能拖欠或分期付款。看起来似乎整个业务渠道都在试图拖延付款,某些情况下的拖延支付甚至长达200天,这让供应商严重缺乏现金。与此同时,大家也都在催收回款。
不是每个人都可以打赢这场仗,也就是说尽管公司尽了最大努力,但仍然可能面临现金短缺。幸运的是,大家现在就能够采取行动,通过识别三个主要的现金陷阱来避免陷入困境:
客户支付缓慢。一旦出现这种迹象,公司就要尽快着手应对。一些B2B公司拥有固定价格的长期合同,无法承受逾期付款。这些公司必须与客户沟通并制定新的付款条款。如果客户要求公司提供超出合同规定的便利条件,那么公司管理层可以因此也向客户要求有一些回报,例如延长合同、扩大合同范围、提前续约或提高定价增加盈余。公司管理者应该谨记:一些支付缓慢的客户会变成老赖,而最明智的做法是在这种情况可能发生之前就停止与客户之间的业务往来。
囤积。随着通货膨胀率上升,经理们可能想订购比实际需要更多的存货。乍一看似乎很明智,但实际上可能导致现金流失。如果你认为你的收入增长速度至少与相关供应成本的增长速度一样快,那么决定“囤积”就是一个坏主意。
资本支出。对每项拟议的资本支出,公司内部的支持者会据理力争,但公司决策者必须审查每个项目是否有迅速启动的必要,主要决定因素就是要考虑当下高通胀会持续的时间,以及美联储的抗通胀政策是否会引发衰退。降低公司盈亏平衡点来节省现金,并推迟某些资本的支出才是当下的首要任务。
在整个组织中,无一例外,每个人都必须把现金管理放在待办事项清单的重要位置。一些首席执行官会要求销售人员负责催收回款,甚至提供财务奖励,而另一些首席执行官则要求每天向首席财务官报告现金流入和流出情况。董事会也应该参与讨论公司的现金状况以及到2024年如何分配资本。
掌握你的数据
你的竞争对手似乎正在抢占市场份额,但在通货膨胀时期,这可能是一种错觉。竞争对手可能会购买份额,保持价格不变,同时为投入支付更高的价格。或者,它们可能正在提价,但只与它们运营的行业和地点的通货膨胀相一致。为了充分了解正在发生的事情,领导者必须了解他们所在行业及开展业务地区的价格趋势。
由于政府的统计数据已经过时且过于宽泛,这些数据几乎毫无用处。像消费者价格指数这样的单一国家指标对子行业的状况没有什么意义。获得有意义数据的唯一方法是收集有关行业内价格变化的情报。比如,一些公司会实时抓取网站上的价格上涨情况,以识别模式和趋势。管理人员和董事会收到的财务数据不仅应该是名义上的,而且还要根据行业的具体通货膨胀情况进行调整。
抢先涨价和赔偿
在高通胀时期,企业需要一个专职的定价工作组。这个团队应该收集外部数据,例如竞争对手的价格、投入价格和消费者心理。
在经济动荡时期,人才争夺战也愈演愈烈,因此领导者必须主动出击。明星员工能够很容易地在其他地方找到工作,因此,公司需要提供的不仅仅是通货膨胀调整后的加薪。请记住,随着股票波动,雇主们正在修改薪酬方案,更加注重固定薪酬而不是股权。
为经济衰退做好准备,即使它可能不会发生
为了抑制通货膨胀,美联储可能不得不通过提高利率和限制货币供应来严格限制经济活动。美国财政部的前部长拉里·萨默斯在一年前就预测通胀会发生,他最近写道:“美联储目前的政策轨迹可能会导致滞胀,未来几年平均失业率和通胀率都将超过5%,并最终导致严重经济衰退。”
大多数华尔街预测者将经济衰退的可能性定在30%左右。我们不会推测这一可能性,但显而易见的是,公司现在就应该开始编写它们的经济衰退应对手册,以备不时之需。
利用你的内在力量
当今经济发展日新月异,在通胀不断上升、新冠肺炎疫情消退和地缘政治紧张的情况下,领导者将永远无法获得决策所需的所有信息,他们将不得不依靠判断力和直觉来做决策。除此之外,他们还需要毅力和勇气来处理他们所面临的棘手问题。这些特质和能力有时被称为软技能,但它们实际上是硬技能。拥抱这些技能。在这样的时候,他们是你最好的朋友。(财富中文网)
葛继甫(Geoff Colvin)是《财富》杂志的资深高级编辑。拉姆·查兰(Ram Charan)是数十家《财富》世界500强企业的高管顾问。他著有32本书,并在《财富》杂志和其他出版物上发表过多篇文章。
译者:ZHY
除非你有神童般的资质,能够在1982年时坐到经理的位置,否则你就无法见证当年的通货膨胀率可以上升到如此地步。
一方面,如此长时间的节制对消费者和企业来说是一件幸事。而另一方面,大多数的管理者还不擅长如何引导公司熬过高通胀时期,毕竟伴随着高通胀而来的就是物价飙升和涨工资的诉求,这些都是令管理者头疼的问题。
好消息是,虽然没有现成的应急手册教我们如何应对104年来第一次全球新冠肺炎疫情、77年来欧洲大陆国家之间的第一次战争或45年来最低的劳动力参与率,但通货膨胀并不是什么新鲜事。如果企业高层和领导者们能够熟练应对当下的经济波动,那么几乎可以肯定的是,他们会在未来几年中获得更高的利润率,并远超竞争对手。下文便列出了现在应该采取的关键步骤。
认清现实:通货膨胀的持续时间可能比你想象的更长
今年3月初,美联储(Federal Reserve)的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔向美国国会表示:“我们仍然预计通胀会在今年内下降。”然而,仅仅过了一周,美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)就报告称通胀率已经从7.5%跃升至7.9%。还未考虑俄乌冲突导致油价上涨的因素,这一数字就已经很高。分析师预测通胀将在未来数月内保持高位,甚至可能还会进一步上升。有些公司的管理者预计通胀将会一直持续,可能长达四年之久,他们正在着手准备应对更令人沮丧的情况。美国企业界对通胀情况进行预测的意义十分重大,因为通胀的实际情况也会受到预期状况的影响。如果消费者和企业根据持续通胀的预期采取行动,那就说明他们的预期会是正确的。
通货膨胀的情况似乎已经开始自我恶化,各路公司经常抢先一步涨价,工人们也纷纷要求涨工资。香奈儿(Chanel)、路威酩轩(LVMH)旗下的路易威登(Louis Vuitton)以及其他拥有强大定价权的奢侈品品牌,最近已经涨价20%甚至更多,远远超过了迄今为止的通货膨胀率。同样地,那些能够轻松提价的软件制造商可能也会效仿奢侈品品牌的这一做法。
尽管美联储正在考虑是否要采取大幅加息的措施来抑制通胀,一些行业仍然面临持续吃紧的状况。因此无论美联储的短期反应如何,它们都会抬高物价。新的半导体工厂需要数年时间才可以建成,劳动力短缺情况也比预测持续时间更长。另外,在整个经济供应链中,作为关键环节的航运业面临着缺少数万名卡车司机的现实。
尽管鲍威尔在对抗通胀方面的态度变得十分强硬,但如今的全球环境仍然面临许多未知。3月21日,鲍威尔承认美联储在预期通胀方面远远落后于通胀曲线,且美联储在解决物价上涨问题上行动迟缓。至少到2022年就应该做好规划以应对顽固的通胀,这才是审慎的做法。
高度重视现金
比起任何其他时期的经济环境,当下可以说是“现金为王”。在高通胀时期,因为成本上升等因素,公司需要更多的现金来支付费用。公司希望暂缓支付,消费者也现金拮据,于是众企业只能拖欠或分期付款。看起来似乎整个业务渠道都在试图拖延付款,某些情况下的拖延支付甚至长达200天,这让供应商严重缺乏现金。与此同时,大家也都在催收回款。
不是每个人都可以打赢这场仗,也就是说尽管公司尽了最大努力,但仍然可能面临现金短缺。幸运的是,大家现在就能够采取行动,通过识别三个主要的现金陷阱来避免陷入困境:
客户支付缓慢。一旦出现这种迹象,公司就要尽快着手应对。一些B2B公司拥有固定价格的长期合同,无法承受逾期付款。这些公司必须与客户沟通并制定新的付款条款。如果客户要求公司提供超出合同规定的便利条件,那么公司管理层可以因此也向客户要求有一些回报,例如延长合同、扩大合同范围、提前续约或提高定价增加盈余。公司管理者应该谨记:一些支付缓慢的客户会变成老赖,而最明智的做法是在这种情况可能发生之前就停止与客户之间的业务往来。
囤积。随着通货膨胀率上升,经理们可能想订购比实际需要更多的存货。乍一看似乎很明智,但实际上可能导致现金流失。如果你认为你的收入增长速度至少与相关供应成本的增长速度一样快,那么决定“囤积”就是一个坏主意。
资本支出。对每项拟议的资本支出,公司内部的支持者会据理力争,但公司决策者必须审查每个项目是否有迅速启动的必要,主要决定因素就是要考虑当下高通胀会持续的时间,以及美联储的抗通胀政策是否会引发衰退。降低公司盈亏平衡点来节省现金,并推迟某些资本的支出才是当下的首要任务。
在整个组织中,无一例外,每个人都必须把现金管理放在待办事项清单的重要位置。一些首席执行官会要求销售人员负责催收回款,甚至提供财务奖励,而另一些首席执行官则要求每天向首席财务官报告现金流入和流出情况。董事会也应该参与讨论公司的现金状况以及到2024年如何分配资本。
掌握你的数据
你的竞争对手似乎正在抢占市场份额,但在通货膨胀时期,这可能是一种错觉。竞争对手可能会购买份额,保持价格不变,同时为投入支付更高的价格。或者,它们可能正在提价,但只与它们运营的行业和地点的通货膨胀相一致。为了充分了解正在发生的事情,领导者必须了解他们所在行业及开展业务地区的价格趋势。
由于政府的统计数据已经过时且过于宽泛,这些数据几乎毫无用处。像消费者价格指数这样的单一国家指标对子行业的状况没有什么意义。获得有意义数据的唯一方法是收集有关行业内价格变化的情报。比如,一些公司会实时抓取网站上的价格上涨情况,以识别模式和趋势。管理人员和董事会收到的财务数据不仅应该是名义上的,而且还要根据行业的具体通货膨胀情况进行调整。
抢先涨价和赔偿
在高通胀时期,企业需要一个专职的定价工作组。这个团队应该收集外部数据,例如竞争对手的价格、投入价格和消费者心理。
在经济动荡时期,人才争夺战也愈演愈烈,因此领导者必须主动出击。明星员工能够很容易地在其他地方找到工作,因此,公司需要提供的不仅仅是通货膨胀调整后的加薪。请记住,随着股票波动,雇主们正在修改薪酬方案,更加注重固定薪酬而不是股权。
为经济衰退做好准备,即使它可能不会发生
为了抑制通货膨胀,美联储可能不得不通过提高利率和限制货币供应来严格限制经济活动。美国财政部的前部长拉里·萨默斯在一年前就预测通胀会发生,他最近写道:“美联储目前的政策轨迹可能会导致滞胀,未来几年平均失业率和通胀率都将超过5%,并最终导致严重经济衰退。”
大多数华尔街预测者将经济衰退的可能性定在30%左右。我们不会推测这一可能性,但显而易见的是,公司现在就应该开始编写它们的经济衰退应对手册,以备不时之需。
利用你的内在力量
当今经济发展日新月异,在通胀不断上升、新冠肺炎疫情消退和地缘政治紧张的情况下,领导者将永远无法获得决策所需的所有信息,他们将不得不依靠判断力和直觉来做决策。除此之外,他们还需要毅力和勇气来处理他们所面临的棘手问题。这些特质和能力有时被称为软技能,但它们实际上是硬技能。拥抱这些技能。在这样的时候,他们是你最好的朋友。(财富中文网)
葛继甫(Geoff Colvin)是《财富》杂志的资深高级编辑。拉姆·查兰(Ram Charan)是数十家《财富》世界500强企业的高管顾问。他著有32本书,并在《财富》杂志和其他出版物上发表过多篇文章。
译者:ZHY
Unless you’re a child prodigy, you probably weren’t a manager the last time inflation was this high—in 1982.
On one hand, such a long stretch of moderation is a blessing for consumers and corporations. On the other, most of today’s managers haven’t had to build the skills needed to guide their companies through high inflation, which comes with sharp price increases and demand for higher wages. That’s a problem.
The good news is that while there’s no playbook for managing through the first global pandemic in 104 years, the first war between nations on the European continent in 77 years, or the lowest labor force participation in 45 years, inflation is nothing new. Leaders who skillfully manage through today’s economic volatility will almost certainly report fatter profit margins and far outpace competitors for years to come. Here are crucial steps leaders should take now:
Accept that inflation may last longer than you think
“We continue to expect inflation to decline over the course of the year,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress in early March. But just one week later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation had jumped from 7.5% to 7.9%, an already-high figure that doesn’t reflect higher oil prices fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts predict that inflation will remain elevated for months to come and will likely worsen, while some business leaders, prepping for a more discouraging scenario, expect inflation to linger for up to four years. Corporate America’s predictions are significant because inflation responds to expectations; if consumers and businesses act on expectations of continued inflation, their expectations tend to be right.
Inflation has already become self-reinforcing, with companies across industries raising prices, often preemptively, and workers demanding higher pay. Chanel, LVMH’s Louis Vuitton, and other luxury goods brands, which typically wield strong pricing power, have recently raised prices 20% or more, far ahead of inflation so far. Software makers, which can also raise prices easily, will likely follow suit.
Though the Fed is considering more aggressive interest rate increases to tame inflation, some economic sectors will remain tight, pushing prices up regardless of the Fed’s short-term response. New semiconductor plants will take years to build; the labor shortage is outlasting predictions; and the shipping industry is short tens of thousands of truck drivers, a crucial link in supply chains for the whole economy.
While Powell has toughened his tone on fighting inflation, today’s global environment is uncharted territory. The Fed was far behind the curve in anticipating inflation, which Powell conceded on March 21, and has been slow to address price rises. Planning for stubborn inflation, at least through 2022, is only prudent.
Focus on cash above all
Cash is king, now more than in any other economic environment. During periods of high inflation companies need more cash to cover expenses. It isn’t just because their costs are rising. Companies want to pay slower, and cash-strapped consumers fall behind on installment payments. It seems the entire business pipeline is trying to stall payments—by as much as 200 days in some cases—leaving vendors grievously short of cash. At the same time, everyone is trying to collect payments faster.
Not everyone can win, meaning companies may still face a cash crunch despite their best efforts. Fortunately, leaders can act now to avoid trouble later by identifying three main cash traps:
Slow-paying customers. Confront this issue at the first sign. Some B2B companies have fixed-price long-term contracts and can’t afford to absorb late payments. These companies must speak with customers and work out new payment terms. If a customer asks for accommodations beyond what’s in the contract, leaders should request something in return such as an extension of the contract, an expansion of its scope, an early renewal, or prices that reflect a margin above costs. Leaders should keep in mind that some slow-paying customers become nonpaying customers. The smartest move may be to stop selling to a customer before that happens.
Hoarding. As inflation rises, managers may want to order more inventory than needed. It seems sensible at first glance but can actually lead to a cash bleed. Hoarding is a bad idea if you believe your revenue will rise at least as fast as the cost of the supplies in question.
Capital expenditures. Every proposed capital expenditure has an internal constituency arguing for it, but leaders must examine whether each project has to start promptly. The answer depends on how long you think today’s high inflation will last and whether the Fed’s inflation fighting policies will trigger a recession. Conserving cash by lowering the company’s breakeven point—in part by postponing some capital expenditures—may have to be top priority.
Across the organization, cash management must rise higher on everyone’s to-do list, without exemptions. Some CEOs are making salespeople accountable for collecting payments and providing financial rewards for doing so, while others are reporting cash inflows and outflows to the CFO daily. The board of directors should join discussions about the company’s cash position and planned capital allocation through 2024.
Get a grip on your data
Your competitor may seem to be gaining market share, but that could be an illusion in times of inflation. Competitors could be buying share, leaving prices unchanged while paying higher prices for inputs. Or perhaps they’re raising prices, but only in line with inflation in the industry and locations where it operates. To fully understand what’s happening, leaders must know the price trends specific to their part of the industry and the areas where they do business.
Government statistics are nearly useless because they’re outdated and far too broad. A single national indicator like the consumer price index tells little about conditions in an industry subsector. The only way to get meaningful data is by gathering intelligence on price changes in one’s sector of the industry. For example, some companies scrape websites for price increases in real time to identify patterns and trends. Managers and the board should receive financial data not just in nominal terms but also adjusted for industry-specific inflation.
Preemptively raise prices and compensation
In periods of high inflation, businesses need a full-time task force on pricing. This team should gather external data such as competitors’ prices, input prices, and consumer psychology.
The war for talent also intensifies in economically volatile times, so leaders must play offense. Star employees can easily go elsewhere and, as a result, companies will need to offer more than an inflation-adjusted raise. Keep in mind that as stocks wobble, employers are revising pay packages to focus more on fixed compensation than on equity.
Prepare for a recession, even though it might not happen
To tame inflation, the Fed may have to clamp down hard on the economy by raising interest rates and constricting the money supply. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who saw inflation coming a year ago, wrote recently that “the Fed’s current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5% over the next few years—and ultimately to a major recession.”
Most Wall Street forecasters are pegging the chance of a recession at about 30%. We won’t speculate on the odds, but it’s clear that companies should start writing their recession playbook now, just in case.
Use your inner strength
In today’s light-speed economy, and amid rising inflation, a subsiding pandemic, and geopolitical tension, leaders will never have all the information they want for decision-making. Leaders will have to rely on judgment and intuition. Beyond that, they’ll need fortitude and courage to handle some of the hardest problems they’ve ever faced. These traits and abilities are sometimes called soft skills, but they’re really the hard skills. Embrace them. In times like these, they’re your best friends.
Geoff Colvin is Fortune’s senior editor-at-large. Ram Charan is an adviser to CEOs and boards of directors worldwide. He has written 32 books and many articles in Fortune and other publications.