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高通货膨胀之下,美国人的精神状态是怎样的?

Declan Harty
2022-04-30

飞涨的物价消灭了消费者的小确幸。

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塔蒂阿娜·霍莫诺夫去杂货店采买时,总是会在购物清单之外多买上一包蜜兰诺(Milano)品牌的饼干。

这种夹心饼干中间的夹心往往是一层薄薄的巧克力,售价为3.89美元,实在是让人难以拒绝。但如今,纽约大学的经济学和公共政策教授霍莫诺夫却发现自己在货架旁犹豫了。由于通货膨胀率已经飙升至40年来最高水平,这款由Pepperidge Farm公司生产的美食价格已经涨到了4.19美元。虽然只涨了几毛钱——和账单总数比起来实在是微不足道——但已经足以让霍莫诺夫在把饼干放进购物车时停下来想一想。

并不是只有霍莫诺夫遇到类似的情况。自2021年年底起,从饼干到汽车再到服装,几乎所有商品都大幅涨价,从那时起,备受关注的通胀指标——消费者价格指数开始呈上升趋势。通货膨胀一直是美国中低收入家庭的财务噩梦,这一次,噩梦已经开始显现。对任何一个人来说,如果每加仑牛奶要多花1美元,而你每周买一次牛奶,那一年就多花52美元。换句话说,这笔钱可以买一份圣诞礼物、一件新衣服,或者和女朋友去看一次电影。“我们正处于前所未有的通胀中。”霍莫诺夫向《财富》杂志表示,“这不是理所应当的,人们会感觉到有点痛苦。”

行为经济学家说,美国人已经在经历一场延续两年并且仍然在肆虐的疫情所带来的持续性精神剧痛,他们会在内心更深处感到沮丧。

“人类天生就能够觉察变化。”宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院研究情绪与谈判过程的管理学教授莫里斯·施韦策说,尤其是在事情进展不顺利的时候,“这时我们才可以真正解除自动驾驶模式,专注于当下,找出问题所在。我们的大脑知道一加仑牛奶卖2美元,一加仑汽油卖3美元,或者说我们每周去一趟超市要花200美元。最近的情况是,我们看到了一些变化,大脑会因此想道:‘嘿,钱花多了,有什么地方不太对劲。’然后我们就被迫从满足的情绪中转向担忧。”

人类以及卷尾猴在面对等量损失和收获时,前者受到的伤害确实要远多于后者收获的兴奋,这是一种被称为损失厌恶的认知偏差。

举个例子,你是否愿意冒着输掉100美元的风险去参与一场或许会赢100美元的赌局?卡内基梅隆大学的教授乔治·勒文施泰因表示,大多数人都会拒绝。他说,只有当奖金接近200美元时,人们才会认为这种风险回报是值得的,即使这样,也只有大约一半人会试一试。在股市、政治、甚至是如何让购物者使用环保购物袋的问题上,这都是一个无处不在的难题。例如,2018年,纽约大学的霍莫诺夫研究了消费者对不同政策的反应:一种是使用可重复使用的塑料袋能够获得5美分奖励,另一种是使用一次性塑料袋要征收5美分税。果不其然,研究结果显示,奖金“几乎没有对塑料袋的使用产生任何影响”,而征税导致对一次性塑料袋的需求减少了一半。现在想一下,如果是同样的原理用在越来越贵的牛奶上呢?

“便宜的牛奶让我快乐,但只是快乐一点点。”霍莫诺夫说,“如果牛奶变贵了,即使差价是一样的,却会让我真的很生气。因为,和我以前支付的价格相比,感觉上是一种损失。”

而对霍莫诺夫来说,要花4块多美元买蜜兰诺品牌的饼干甚至更痛苦,原因是所谓的“左位偏差”,这种现象指的是人们在看价格时会过度关注最左边第一位数字的大小。(同样的情况还出现在二手车的里程、SAT分数,或年级平均分等。)

实际上,正是因为左位偏差,李维斯(Levi’s)才把牛仔裤定价49.99美元而不是50美元,亚利桑那(AriZona)品牌的冰茶才卖99美分而不是1美元,麦当劳(McDonald’s)的巨无霸(Big Mac)售价3.99美元而不是4美元,因为如果最左边的数字调高了,消费者会对这种价格变化感到难以接受。因此,当米兰饼干突破4美元的门槛时,像霍莫诺夫这样的消费者就会注意到。“从2.89美元涨到2.98美元感觉没有变化。但从2.98美元涨到3美元,感觉像是涨价了。”霍莫诺夫说。她还说,今天在杂货店里,“感觉自己都快被左位偏见淹没了”。

想弄明白损失厌恶背后的原理也没有那么容易。2010年的一项研究表明,从临床的角度看,大脑的情绪中心杏仁核“在人类决策时,对产生厌恶损失的情绪发挥了必要作用”。然而,研究发现,一个人的财富、权力地位、文化背景等因素也会影响其在决策时对损失的厌恶程度。但总而言之,研究人员似乎一致认为,正如一个小组在2016年的一项研究中得出的结论,厌恶损失似乎是“人类决策过程的内源性特征”。

尽管如此,美国人到现在还是愿意平息内部反对者的声音,推进支出。

密歇根大学的消费者信心指数在今年3月触及十年新低后仅经历数周,就在4月迅速反弹。美国银行研究所的数据显示,4月前8天信用卡和借记卡消费同比增长了15%,而在年收入不足5万美元的持卡人中,4月的家庭消费与2019年同期相比跳涨逾33%。美国银行的信用卡和借记卡持卡人一季度在旅游和娱乐方面的支出同比增长了57%。

然而,新冠疫情对全体美国人的影响绝不是单一的。施韦策说,可能在一些人外出消费时,还有一些人仍然被困在家里,想尽办法让自己的生活物资可以再多撑几天。

“过去两年,人们的经历非常不平衡。新冠疫情期间,一些人的职业生涯完好无损,还实现了资产增值,财务状况良好。还有一些人却经受了毁灭性的损失。”这位宾夕法尼亚大学的教授在后续的一封电子邮件中写道。“存在着巨大的不平等。”

卡内基梅隆大学的勒文施泰因说,即便是那些在新冠疫情期间设法为自己争取到了更高工资的人,也可能会感受到价格上涨的痛苦——如果不是比以前更痛苦的话。“这种感觉就像是,他们终于争取到的东西被夺走了。”勒文施泰因告诉《财富》杂志,“尽管如果还拿着同样的工资却遭到通胀的打击,这种情况实际上更糟,但我很能理解,明明实际情况变好了,感觉却更差了,因为就好像你终于等来了渴望已久的东西,现在却又被夺走了。”

这种沮丧不会永远持续下去。最终,消费者会适应这种已经成为新常态的通胀——如果价格保持上涨的话。而如果价格还会再次落地,等到那一天,损失厌恶的原理大概率意味着,与最近几个月的骚动相比,那时人们的反应将相对温和。

“我们的记忆会褪色。”施韦策说,“我们会记住一段紧张、糟糕的经历,但在对某件事情做出评价时,我们往往对终点更加敏感。看电影时,我们会更在意它的结局。去餐馆吃饭时,在我们的脑海里,那顿饭最后的时刻会比过程中的一些瞬间简单相加更重要。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

塔蒂阿娜·霍莫诺夫去杂货店采买时,总是会在购物清单之外多买上一包蜜兰诺(Milano)品牌的饼干。

这种夹心饼干中间的夹心往往是一层薄薄的巧克力,售价为3.89美元,实在是让人难以拒绝。但如今,纽约大学的经济学和公共政策教授霍莫诺夫却发现自己在货架旁犹豫了。由于通货膨胀率已经飙升至40年来最高水平,这款由Pepperidge Farm公司生产的美食价格已经涨到了4.19美元。虽然只涨了几毛钱——和账单总数比起来实在是微不足道——但已经足以让霍莫诺夫在把饼干放进购物车时停下来想一想。

并不是只有霍莫诺夫遇到类似的情况。自2021年年底起,从饼干到汽车再到服装,几乎所有商品都大幅涨价,从那时起,备受关注的通胀指标——消费者价格指数开始呈上升趋势。通货膨胀一直是美国中低收入家庭的财务噩梦,这一次,噩梦已经开始显现。对任何一个人来说,如果每加仑牛奶要多花1美元,而你每周买一次牛奶,那一年就多花52美元。换句话说,这笔钱可以买一份圣诞礼物、一件新衣服,或者和女朋友去看一次电影。“我们正处于前所未有的通胀中。”霍莫诺夫向《财富》杂志表示,“这不是理所应当的,人们会感觉到有点痛苦。”

行为经济学家说,美国人已经在经历一场延续两年并且仍然在肆虐的疫情所带来的持续性精神剧痛,他们会在内心更深处感到沮丧。

“人类天生就能够觉察变化。”宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院研究情绪与谈判过程的管理学教授莫里斯·施韦策说,尤其是在事情进展不顺利的时候,“这时我们才可以真正解除自动驾驶模式,专注于当下,找出问题所在。我们的大脑知道一加仑牛奶卖2美元,一加仑汽油卖3美元,或者说我们每周去一趟超市要花200美元。最近的情况是,我们看到了一些变化,大脑会因此想道:‘嘿,钱花多了,有什么地方不太对劲。’然后我们就被迫从满足的情绪中转向担忧。”

人类以及卷尾猴在面对等量损失和收获时,前者受到的伤害确实要远多于后者收获的兴奋,这是一种被称为损失厌恶的认知偏差。

举个例子,你是否愿意冒着输掉100美元的风险去参与一场或许会赢100美元的赌局?卡内基梅隆大学的教授乔治·勒文施泰因表示,大多数人都会拒绝。他说,只有当奖金接近200美元时,人们才会认为这种风险回报是值得的,即使这样,也只有大约一半人会试一试。在股市、政治、甚至是如何让购物者使用环保购物袋的问题上,这都是一个无处不在的难题。例如,2018年,纽约大学的霍莫诺夫研究了消费者对不同政策的反应:一种是使用可重复使用的塑料袋能够获得5美分奖励,另一种是使用一次性塑料袋要征收5美分税。果不其然,研究结果显示,奖金“几乎没有对塑料袋的使用产生任何影响”,而征税导致对一次性塑料袋的需求减少了一半。现在想一下,如果是同样的原理用在越来越贵的牛奶上呢?

“便宜的牛奶让我快乐,但只是快乐一点点。”霍莫诺夫说,“如果牛奶变贵了,即使差价是一样的,却会让我真的很生气。因为,和我以前支付的价格相比,感觉上是一种损失。”

而对霍莫诺夫来说,要花4块多美元买蜜兰诺品牌的饼干甚至更痛苦,原因是所谓的“左位偏差”,这种现象指的是人们在看价格时会过度关注最左边第一位数字的大小。(同样的情况还出现在二手车的里程、SAT分数,或年级平均分等。)

实际上,正是因为左位偏差,李维斯(Levi’s)才把牛仔裤定价49.99美元而不是50美元,亚利桑那(AriZona)品牌的冰茶才卖99美分而不是1美元,麦当劳(McDonald’s)的巨无霸(Big Mac)售价3.99美元而不是4美元,因为如果最左边的数字调高了,消费者会对这种价格变化感到难以接受。因此,当米兰饼干突破4美元的门槛时,像霍莫诺夫这样的消费者就会注意到。“从2.89美元涨到2.98美元感觉没有变化。但从2.98美元涨到3美元,感觉像是涨价了。”霍莫诺夫说。她还说,今天在杂货店里,“感觉自己都快被左位偏见淹没了”。

想弄明白损失厌恶背后的原理也没有那么容易。2010年的一项研究表明,从临床的角度看,大脑的情绪中心杏仁核“在人类决策时,对产生厌恶损失的情绪发挥了必要作用”。然而,研究发现,一个人的财富、权力地位、文化背景等因素也会影响其在决策时对损失的厌恶程度。但总而言之,研究人员似乎一致认为,正如一个小组在2016年的一项研究中得出的结论,厌恶损失似乎是“人类决策过程的内源性特征”。

尽管如此,美国人到现在还是愿意平息内部反对者的声音,推进支出。

密歇根大学的消费者信心指数在今年3月触及十年新低后仅经历数周,就在4月迅速反弹。美国银行研究所的数据显示,4月前8天信用卡和借记卡消费同比增长了15%,而在年收入不足5万美元的持卡人中,4月的家庭消费与2019年同期相比跳涨逾33%。美国银行的信用卡和借记卡持卡人一季度在旅游和娱乐方面的支出同比增长了57%。

然而,新冠疫情对全体美国人的影响绝不是单一的。施韦策说,可能在一些人外出消费时,还有一些人仍然被困在家里,想尽办法让自己的生活物资可以再多撑几天。

“过去两年,人们的经历非常不平衡。新冠疫情期间,一些人的职业生涯完好无损,还实现了资产增值,财务状况良好。还有一些人却经受了毁灭性的损失。”这位宾夕法尼亚大学的教授在后续的一封电子邮件中写道。“存在着巨大的不平等。”

卡内基梅隆大学的勒文施泰因说,即便是那些在新冠疫情期间设法为自己争取到了更高工资的人,也可能会感受到价格上涨的痛苦——如果不是比以前更痛苦的话。“这种感觉就像是,他们终于争取到的东西被夺走了。”勒文施泰因告诉《财富》杂志,“尽管如果还拿着同样的工资却遭到通胀的打击,这种情况实际上更糟,但我很能理解,明明实际情况变好了,感觉却更差了,因为就好像你终于等来了渴望已久的东西,现在却又被夺走了。”

这种沮丧不会永远持续下去。最终,消费者会适应这种已经成为新常态的通胀——如果价格保持上涨的话。而如果价格还会再次落地,等到那一天,损失厌恶的原理大概率意味着,与最近几个月的骚动相比,那时人们的反应将相对温和。

“我们的记忆会褪色。”施韦策说,“我们会记住一段紧张、糟糕的经历,但在对某件事情做出评价时,我们往往对终点更加敏感。看电影时,我们会更在意它的结局。去餐馆吃饭时,在我们的脑海里,那顿饭最后的时刻会比过程中的一些瞬间简单相加更重要。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

A package of Milano cookies used to be an obvious addition to Tatiana Homonoff’s grocery list.

Costing $3.89, the sandwiched cookies, held together by a thin layer of what is usually chocolate, were a treat too good to pass up. But Homonoff, a New York University professor who teaches economics and public policy, finds herself hesitating in the grocery store aisle nowadays. The price on the Pepperidge Farm-made delicacies has jumped to $4.19 thanks to the wrath of surging inflation that stands at its highest level in four decades. And while it’s only a few dimes—a minuscule amount in the grand scheme—it’s enough to make Homonoff pause while putting the cookies into her cart.

Homonoff’s not alone. Prices on just about everything, from cookies to cars to clothing, have jumped in tremendous fashion since late 2021, when the consumer price index, the widely watched inflation gauge, began to trend upward. Inflation has always been a financial nightmare for lower- and middle-income households in the U.S., a fact that has already started to bear some truth this time around. And for anyone, if you have to pay $1 more for a gallon of milk, and you buy milk once a week, that’s $52 a year. Or, in other terms, the cost of a Christmas present, or a new dress, or a trip to the movies with your girlfriend. “We’re in a time of unprecedented inflation,” Homonoff tells Fortune. “This isn’t just, this feels a little bit painful.”

Yet Americans, already dealing with the lasting mental anguish of living through a two-year-long pandemic that’s still kicking, are feeling the frustration on a more innate level as well, behavioral economists say.

“We are hardwired to detect changes,” especially for when things go poorly, says Maurice Schweitzer, a professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School who studies emotions and the negotiation process. “That’s when we really disengage our autopilot and become present focused to figure out what’s wrong. … In our minds, we know that a gallon of milk costs $2, a gallon of gas costs $3, or that we go to the grocery store and spend $200 each week. What’s happened very recently is that we’ve seen a change [and] something triggers in our brain that says, ‘Hey, this isn’t a good deal, something’s not right.’ And we get kicked out of complacency into a state of concern.”

People, as well as capuchin monkeys, do tend to feel the hurt of a loss far more than the excitement of a gain that’s of equal weight, based on a cognitive bias called loss aversion.

Take the case of whether you would be willing to risk losing $100 at a casino for the possibility of winning $100, for example. Most people, Carnegie Mellon University professor George Loewenstein says, would decline the offer. The pay-out would instead have to be closer to $200 for people to see the risk-reward as worth it, and, even then, only about half would take the odds, Loewenstein says. Between the stock market, politics, and even how to get shoppers to carry their groceries home in a green way, it’s a conundrum that can be applied to any number of applications. In 2018, for instance, NYU’s Homonoff set out to figure out how consumers responded to the promise of a 5-cent bonus for using reusable bags and to a 5-cent tax for using disposable bags. And surely enough, while the bonus had “almost no impact on bag use,” the tax resulted in demand for disposable bags being halved, according to the study. Now imagine the same principle but in the increasingly expensive milk aisle.

“Cheaper milk makes me happier, but only a little bit happier,” Homonoff says. “More expensive milk, even if it’s the same price change, makes me really angry. Because, relative to what I used to pay, that feels like a loss.”

For Homonoff, the pain is even worse with the now $4-plus Milano cookies because of what’s known as “left-digit bias,” a phenomenon of consumers placing an inordinate amount of weight on the number furthest to the left in a price (or for that matter, a used car’s mileage, an SAT score, or grade averages.)

Left-digit bias is, effectively, the reason why Levi’s sell a pair of jeans for $49.99 rather than $50, why an AriZona iced tea goes for 99 cents instead of $1, and why a Big Mac goes for $3.99 and not $4—because consumers have a hard time grappling with a price change once that number on the left ticks up. So when a product like Milano cookies breaks through that $4 threshold, shoppers like Homonoff take notice. “$2.89 to $2.98—that feels like the same. $2.98 to $3—that feels like an increase,” Homonoff says, before later adding, “I’m just drowning in left-digit bias” when at the grocery store today.

Understanding the why behind loss aversion is still a bit tricky. On a clinical level, the brain’s emotional center, the amygdala, has been found to play a “necessary role in generating loss aversion during human decision making,” according to a 2010 study. However, other considerations like a person’s wealth, status of power, and cultural background have all been found to play a part in how susceptible one’s decision-making process is to loss aversion as well. But, all told, researchers seem united in the fact that, as one group concluded in a 2016 study, loss aversion appears to be “an endogenous feature of human decision-making.”

Still, Americans have so far been willing to quiet the voice of their inner dissenter and push ahead with spending.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, just weeks after hitting a new decade-low in March, quickly bounced back in April. Data from the Bank of America Institute show that credit and debit card spending was up 15% in the first eight days of April versus the same period of last year, while card spending per household, among cardholders who bring in less than $50,000 annually, had jumped more than 33% in April from the same period of 2019. And Bank of America itself saw travel and entertainment spending from its credit and debit cardholders jump 57% in first quarter, versus the same period of 2021.

COVID-19 has been anything but unilateral in its implications for Americans as a whole, though. So, while some may be out spending, others are still stuck at home just trying to make their groceries last another couple of days, says Schweitzer.

“The experience people have had in the past two years is very uneven. Some people have emerged through the pandemic with their careers intact, with appreciated assets, and in a strong financial position. Others have suffered devastating losses,” the University of Pennsylvania professor wrote in a follow-up email. “There is great inequity.”

Even the workers who managed to negotiate higher salaries and wages for themselves over the course of the pandemic are likely feeling the pain of higher prices—if not more so than they would have before, Carnegie Mellon’s Loewenstein says. “It feels like something they finally achieved has been taken away from them,” Loewenstein tells Fortune. “Even though it’s worse—making the same wage and inflation hitting you—I can easily imagine that the better situation feels worse because it feels like this thing that’s finally come to you, that you’ve been longing for and now it’s being wrenched from you.”

The frustration won’t last forever. Eventually, consumers will adjust and settle in with inflation acting as their new normal—so long as prices are elevated. And if and when they do come back down to Earth, well, loss aversion would seem to imply the reaction will be relatively muted by comparison to the uproar that has taken place in recent months.

“Our memories will fade,” Schweitzer says. “We’ll remember an intense, bad experience, but, in terms of evaluating something, we’re sensitive to the end points. If we watch a movie, we really care about how it ended. If we go to a restaurant, the end of that meal weighs in our mind more than the simple sum of the moments.”

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