通货膨胀会伤害所有人:消费者因为价格和利率升高而受损,供应商因为风险升高而受损,而回报降低也会让股东蒙受损失。
从2021年3月到2022年3月,美国的消费价格指数(CPI)上涨了8.5%,创下自1981年以来的最高水平。而且现在没有理由认为,通货膨胀会迅速消失。
事实上,世界各地的企业领导者都认为,这个通胀周期将“足够持久”,必须严阵以待。但很少有人知道如何应对。毕竟,美国的通胀率上一次达到如此高的水平还是40年前的事情。采取过往的应对手段或许是不够的。现在是企业领导者制定一套针对特定领域的新战略的时候了。
首先,领导者有机会改变采购业务。一大要点是,务必要将采购视为价值创造的核心部分,而不仅仅是成本控制问题。
在这样一个供应链动辄短缺的世界中,传统的采购方式并不总是奏效。最优秀的采购领导者已经开始扮演一个战略性角色,通过部署不同的战略来满足他们的需要。
例如,为了应对劳动力成本上升和供应商调价,一家电力公司的采购团队与其他职能部门合作,重新设计工程和建设工作流程,以降低运营成本。当一家电子企业从亚洲交付产品遇到困难时,它通过扩大美国和墨西哥工厂的生产规模,重新策划了其物流和供应商地理布局。
垂直整合是另一种选择。零售商正在通过收购来加强对关键产品价值链的控制。汽车制造商则直接与铸造厂签约,以储备产能。
企业领导者还应该考虑投资技术和流程自动化。基于云计算的全新商业模式,可以让企业在需要的时点灵活地扩大产能。
然后就是重新定价——并着力加强客户关系。将更高的成本转嫁给客户,是任何人都不愿意看到的场景。但只要企业与客户携手努力,勠力解决共同的问题和通胀痛点,就有望减少这样做造成的痛苦。
这听起来可能过于理想化,但这种战略性重新定价是有成功记录可循的。当市场对高成本、低批量产品的需求激增时,一家制造企业延长了这些低利润产品的交货期。销售团队随即鼓励客户选择更加标准化的替代品。其结果是生产率全面提高,从而让企业在不涨价的情况下维持了利润率。
即使涨价不可避免,与客户合作仍然具有价值。意识到自己再也无法承受成本压力之后,一家耐用消费品公司开始分析市场状况,并将事实原原本本地传达给客户。如此一来,它就能够在不损害客户关系的情况下提高价格。
最后,企业还要制定人才战略。换工作的成本,以及就业差距带来的耻辱感,正在稳步下降。许多员工表示,只要做好准备,找工作并非难事,而且他们不愿意忍受漠不关心的领导或者没有前途的职位。这些都是导致美国离职率居高不下的因素,也是推动工资快速上涨的重要原因。
有竞争力的薪酬是必要的,但远远不够。为了吸引和留住人才,领导者必须少一些控制,要在文化和联系方面多花些心思。真正的使命感和归属感可以帮助他们的公司成为更有吸引力的雇主。拥有强大文化的公司不仅能够为员工提供更好的工作环境,还可以为股东带来更高的回报。文化也是在公司内部推行反通胀战略的重要一环。众所周知,高离职率会让企业付出高昂的代价。
比如,不要只做离职面谈,不妨考虑做“留任面谈”。询问人们的愿望、关切和日常体验。员工非常渴望拥有持续的灵活性,所以愿意尝试不同的时间安排、人员配置和招聘方式。
一些人最终还是会离开。寻找新鲜血液时,企业需要定义和重新定义完成工作真正所需的条件,这样做也许能够帮助企业招募到拥有更广泛背景的人才。要重视技能,不要只盯着学位。
如果领导者要打破内部壁垒,汇聚不同职能部门的专业知识,应对通胀就必须成为全公司共同奉行的战略。这可以通过创建“神经中枢”来实现——这种灵活的构架拥有在企业各个部门测试新方式,并协调统一反应的权威。
新冠疫情袭来时,许多公司都采用了这种方式。这些努力帮助企业以超出它们原本想象的速度和深度,完成了自我改造。通过汇聚未雨绸缪所需的组织能力,通胀神经中枢也有望带来同样的效果。要谋划一些更具战略意义的行动,而不是等到事情发生时,手忙脚乱地“灭火”。常规的月度业务回顾或季度供应商研讨会,不足以应对快速变化的事件。
建立并运行一个通胀神经中枢,可能只需要花费几周时间,并且很快就会见效。例如,它能够及时发现某些指标何时达到阈值,并作出反应,从而有助于提高决策的速度和质量。
为了让通胀神经中枢发挥作用,首席执行官需要扮演“首席整合者”的角色,将各个业务部门拧成一股绳,精心策划统一的应对措施。首席执行官可以采取以下几个关键步骤,而这些工作也只能由他们亲力亲为。
• 传达明确的任务和一系列具体目标。
• 任命一位高管来负责这个神经中枢。
• 坚持以基于事实的方式来追踪结果,实时矫正,并确定成功(和失败)。
• 从不同的职能部门中招募人才,组建一支既有能力,也愿意采取行动的团队。
• 赋予这支团队采取行动的权力,并接受可能会犯的错误,因为面对不确定性时,团队成员需要做出许多决定。
“足够持久”的通胀是一大威胁。时不我待,企业领导者现在就必须着手制定一套新的反击战术。(财富中文网)
本文作者阿苏托什·帕迪(Asutosh Padhi)是麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Company)的北美区执行合伙人,现居芝加哥。
译者:任文科
通货膨胀会伤害所有人:消费者因为价格和利率升高而受损,供应商因为风险升高而受损,而回报降低也会让股东蒙受损失。
从2021年3月到2022年3月,美国的消费价格指数(CPI)上涨了8.5%,创下自1981年以来的最高水平。而且现在没有理由认为,通货膨胀会迅速消失。
事实上,世界各地的企业领导者都认为,这个通胀周期将“足够持久”,必须严阵以待。但很少有人知道如何应对。毕竟,美国的通胀率上一次达到如此高的水平还是40年前的事情。采取过往的应对手段或许是不够的。现在是企业领导者制定一套针对特定领域的新战略的时候了。
首先,领导者有机会改变采购业务。一大要点是,务必要将采购视为价值创造的核心部分,而不仅仅是成本控制问题。
在这样一个供应链动辄短缺的世界中,传统的采购方式并不总是奏效。最优秀的采购领导者已经开始扮演一个战略性角色,通过部署不同的战略来满足他们的需要。
例如,为了应对劳动力成本上升和供应商调价,一家电力公司的采购团队与其他职能部门合作,重新设计工程和建设工作流程,以降低运营成本。当一家电子企业从亚洲交付产品遇到困难时,它通过扩大美国和墨西哥工厂的生产规模,重新策划了其物流和供应商地理布局。
垂直整合是另一种选择。零售商正在通过收购来加强对关键产品价值链的控制。汽车制造商则直接与铸造厂签约,以储备产能。
企业领导者还应该考虑投资技术和流程自动化。基于云计算的全新商业模式,可以让企业在需要的时点灵活地扩大产能。
然后就是重新定价——并着力加强客户关系。将更高的成本转嫁给客户,是任何人都不愿意看到的场景。但只要企业与客户携手努力,勠力解决共同的问题和通胀痛点,就有望减少这样做造成的痛苦。
这听起来可能过于理想化,但这种战略性重新定价是有成功记录可循的。当市场对高成本、低批量产品的需求激增时,一家制造企业延长了这些低利润产品的交货期。销售团队随即鼓励客户选择更加标准化的替代品。其结果是生产率全面提高,从而让企业在不涨价的情况下维持了利润率。
即使涨价不可避免,与客户合作仍然具有价值。意识到自己再也无法承受成本压力之后,一家耐用消费品公司开始分析市场状况,并将事实原原本本地传达给客户。如此一来,它就能够在不损害客户关系的情况下提高价格。
最后,企业还要制定人才战略。换工作的成本,以及就业差距带来的耻辱感,正在稳步下降。许多员工表示,只要做好准备,找工作并非难事,而且他们不愿意忍受漠不关心的领导或者没有前途的职位。这些都是导致美国离职率居高不下的因素,也是推动工资快速上涨的重要原因。
有竞争力的薪酬是必要的,但远远不够。为了吸引和留住人才,领导者必须少一些控制,要在文化和联系方面多花些心思。真正的使命感和归属感可以帮助他们的公司成为更有吸引力的雇主。拥有强大文化的公司不仅能够为员工提供更好的工作环境,还可以为股东带来更高的回报。文化也是在公司内部推行反通胀战略的重要一环。众所周知,高离职率会让企业付出高昂的代价。
比如,不要只做离职面谈,不妨考虑做“留任面谈”。询问人们的愿望、关切和日常体验。员工非常渴望拥有持续的灵活性,所以愿意尝试不同的时间安排、人员配置和招聘方式。
一些人最终还是会离开。寻找新鲜血液时,企业需要定义和重新定义完成工作真正所需的条件,这样做也许能够帮助企业招募到拥有更广泛背景的人才。要重视技能,不要只盯着学位。
如果领导者要打破内部壁垒,汇聚不同职能部门的专业知识,应对通胀就必须成为全公司共同奉行的战略。这可以通过创建“神经中枢”来实现——这种灵活的构架拥有在企业各个部门测试新方式,并协调统一反应的权威。
新冠疫情袭来时,许多公司都采用了这种方式。这些努力帮助企业以超出它们原本想象的速度和深度,完成了自我改造。通过汇聚未雨绸缪所需的组织能力,通胀神经中枢也有望带来同样的效果。要谋划一些更具战略意义的行动,而不是等到事情发生时,手忙脚乱地“灭火”。常规的月度业务回顾或季度供应商研讨会,不足以应对快速变化的事件。
建立并运行一个通胀神经中枢,可能只需要花费几周时间,并且很快就会见效。例如,它能够及时发现某些指标何时达到阈值,并作出反应,从而有助于提高决策的速度和质量。
为了让通胀神经中枢发挥作用,首席执行官需要扮演“首席整合者”的角色,将各个业务部门拧成一股绳,精心策划统一的应对措施。首席执行官可以采取以下几个关键步骤,而这些工作也只能由他们亲力亲为。
• 传达明确的任务和一系列具体目标。
• 任命一位高管来负责这个神经中枢。
• 坚持以基于事实的方式来追踪结果,实时矫正,并确定成功(和失败)。
• 从不同的职能部门中招募人才,组建一支既有能力,也愿意采取行动的团队。
• 赋予这支团队采取行动的权力,并接受可能会犯的错误,因为面对不确定性时,团队成员需要做出许多决定。
“足够持久”的通胀是一大威胁。时不我待,企业领导者现在就必须着手制定一套新的反击战术。(财富中文网)
本文作者阿苏托什·帕迪(Asutosh Padhi)是麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Company)的北美区执行合伙人,现居芝加哥。
译者:任文科
Inflation hurts everyone: consumers through higher prices and interest rates, suppliers through higher risk, and shareholders through lower returns.
Between March 2021 and March 2022, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.5% in the U. S.—the highest rate since 1981. And there is no reason to assume that inflation will fade away quickly.
Indeed, business leaders around the world are saying that they regard it as “permanent enough” to demand their attention. But few know how to cope: In the United States, the last time inflation was this high was four decades ago. To manage it, business as usual will likely not be enough. It’s time for leaders to develop a playbook with new strategies directed at specific areas.
First, leaders have the chance to transform procurement by treating it as a core part of value creation, not just a matter of cost control.
In a world rife with supply chain shortages, traditional procurement approaches don’t always work. The best procurement leaders have embraced a strategic role, deploying different strategies to suit their needs.
For example, in response to higher labor costs and higher prices from suppliers, one electric utility team partnered with other functions to redesign engineering and construction workflows to cut operating costs. When an electronics company ran into difficulty delivering products from Asia, it rethought its logistics and geographic sources by expanding production to the U.S. and Mexico.
Vertical integration is another option. Retailers are making acquisitions to control more of their value chains for key products. Automotive manufacturers are contracting directly with foundries to reserve capacity.
Business leaders should also consider investing in technology and process automation. New cloud-based business models can allow for flexible scaling of capacity when and where needed.
Then, there is pricing–and strengthening customer relationships. Passing on higher costs is nobody’s idea of a good time, but it may be less painful when companies work with their customers to help address common problems and inflationary pain points.
That may sound utopian, but there is a track record for this kind of strategic repricing. A manufacturing company facing a surge in demand for high-cost, low-volume products lengthened lead times for products with lower margins. Sales teams encouraged customers to opt for more standardized alternatives. The result was an overall increase in productivity that maintained margins without price increases.
Even when higher prices are inevitable, working with customers can still be valuable. When a consumer durables company realized it could no longer withstand cost pressures, it analyzed market conditions and communicated the facts to its customers. This enabled it to raise prices without damaging its relationships.
Finally, there is talent. The cost of switching jobs, as well as the stigma attached to employment gaps, is declining. Employees reported that they can find work when they are ready and are not willing to put with up with uncaring leaders or dead-end roles. These are among the factors behind stubbornly high quit rates in the United States–and thus fast-rising wages.
Competitive pay is essential, but far from enough. To attract and keep talent, leaders must focus less on control and more on culture and connection. A genuine sense of purpose and belonging could help make their company a more attractive employer. Companies with strong cultures not only offer a better environment for employees, and they also deliver significantly greater returns to shareholders. Culture could also be part of an internal anti-inflation strategy: High turnover is expensive.
Instead of just doing exit interviews, for example, consider doing “stay interviews.” Ask people about their aspirations, concerns, and day-to-day experiences. Employee desire for continued flexibility is strong, so be willing to experiment with scheduling, staffing, and hiring.
Some people are still going to leave. When seeking new talent, it may be possible to recruit a wider range of candidates by defining and redefining what is truly necessary to get the job done. Think skills, not degrees.
Coping with inflation must be a company-wide strategy if leaders are to break down internal barriers and bring cross-functional expertise together. This could be done by creating “nerve centers”– flexible structures with enterprise-wide authority to test approaches and coordinate a unified response.
Many companies adopted this approach when COVID-19 hit, and these efforts helped them to reinvent themselves faster and more thoroughly than they once thought possible. An inflation nerve center could be just as effective, by concentrating the organizational capabilities required to get ahead of events. Think more strategic action and less firefighting. Monthly business reviews or quarterly supplier workshops are not enough to deal with fast-moving events.
It is possible to get an inflation nerve center up and running in a matter of weeks, and the results can kick in quickly. For example, it could improve the pace and quality of decision making by noting when certain thresholds are met and then generating responses.
For an inflation nerve center to work, CEOs need to act as the “integrator-in-chief,” pulling operations together to orchestrate a unified response. There are a few key steps that CEOs—and only CEOs—can take:
• Communicating a clear mandate and a set of specific goals.
• Naming a senior leader to coordinate the nerve center.
• Insisting on a fact-based approach to track results, make corrections, and identify successes (and failures).
• Selecting a team from different functions who are able and willing to act.
• Empowering this team to act, and accepting that mistakes will likely be made, given that many decisions will have to be taken in the face of uncertainty.
“Permanent enough” inflation is a threat. To fight back, the time to create a new playbook is now.
Asutosh Padhi is McKinsey & Company’s managing partner for North America and is based in Chicago.