本周的商业新闻头条可能会让求职者担心,火热的市场可能会降温。美联储加息。在经历了残酷的四月之后,道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数继续下跌。在硅谷,有很多传言称招聘正在放缓,更多的裁员即将到来。哦,不要忘记所有关于经济衰退的话题。
在这场抢座位游戏中,员工们频繁跳槽,寻求最佳薪酬和福利待遇,音乐是否即将停止?我们是否都应该抢一个座位并紧紧守住,以便在下一次经济衰退来临时,我们不至于发现自己没有椅子?
专家说现在还不是恐慌的时候。
PNC首席经济学家格斯·福奇(Gus Faucher)表示,美国开始出现经济和劳动力市场的一些变化,这是因为随着新冠肺炎疫情消退和美联储开始加息,消费者行为发生了变化。
福奇告诉《财富》杂志,但这些都是“我们在经济扩张过程中看到的正常的潮起潮落——并不是经济衰退即将到来的迹象。我不会对个别公司的公告作过多解读。”
事实上,根据美国劳工统计局周五公布的最新数据,美国雇主在4月份增加了42.8万个工作岗位。会计和咨询公司均富会计师事务所(Grant Thornton)的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示,这可能不像复苏初期的一些月度就业数字那样令人瞠目结舌,但它仍然描绘了一个强劲的劳动力市场。
福奇说,总体而言,就业和工资持续增长,申请失业救济金的人数仍然接近历史最低水平,总体失业率低于4%,所有这些指标都表明美国工作者的情况仍然非常好。
因此,就目前而言,就业市场依然火爆。Bankrate.com高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)认为,那些被解雇的人很容易找到新工作,特别是资质良好或高技能的工作者。
职位空缺与工作者的比率仍然保持在1.8,与有记录以来的第二高点保持一致。“这意味着辞职率将保持在高位。”斯旺克告诉《财富》杂志。她说,在辞职率显著下降之前,美国需要经历“工作者需求遭受严重打击”,即比2020年2月危机前的峰值高出60%以上。
哈姆里克说,推动跳槽的另一个因素是,在新职位工作的工作者更有可能获得更高的薪水。“我预计,至少在短期内,只要失业率处于历史低位,就业市场就仍会相当活跃。”
尽管如此,对于寻找新职位的人来说,仍有很多好的工作机会。但福奇表示,他预计跳槽的速度在今年余下的时间里将会放缓。他说:“人们已经进入了更适合的工作岗位,因此,未来进步的机会将更加有限。”
美联储降低通胀的措施也可能让更多的人留在现有工作岗位上。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)承认,这一过程“不会令人愉快”。加息将推高借贷利率——这可能导致更多的公司勒紧裤腰带过活。而且,这有可能对硅谷产生影响,一些专家担心,更高的利率可能意味着更少的融资轮次。资本自由流动的日子可能要结束了。然后,正如雅各布姆·卡彭特(Jacob Carpenter)在上周四的《数据表》中报告的那样,“对泡沫破裂的担忧可能是没有根据的”。
不过,可以说,最好还是做好充分的准备。因为工作者们现在拥有的影响力可能不会持续到今年底。而且,由于没有人想成为“最后一个被雇佣的人”,求职者可能想确保他们正在寻找的是一份稳定的工作。“对于大多数成年人来说,他们应该把重点放在工作的长期潜力上,但情况并非总是如此。”福奇说。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
本周的商业新闻头条可能会让求职者担心,火热的市场可能会降温。美联储加息。在经历了残酷的四月之后,道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数继续下跌。在硅谷,有很多传言称招聘正在放缓,更多的裁员即将到来。哦,不要忘记所有关于经济衰退的话题。
在这场抢座位游戏中,员工们频繁跳槽,寻求最佳薪酬和福利待遇,音乐是否即将停止?我们是否都应该抢一个座位并紧紧守住,以便在下一次经济衰退来临时,我们不至于发现自己没有椅子?
专家说现在还不是恐慌的时候。
PNC首席经济学家格斯·福奇(Gus Faucher)表示,美国开始出现经济和劳动力市场的一些变化,这是因为随着新冠肺炎疫情消退和美联储开始加息,消费者行为发生了变化。
福奇告诉《财富》杂志,但这些都是“我们在经济扩张过程中看到的正常的潮起潮落——并不是经济衰退即将到来的迹象。我不会对个别公司的公告作过多解读。”
事实上,根据美国劳工统计局周五公布的最新数据,美国雇主在4月份增加了42.8万个工作岗位。会计和咨询公司均富会计师事务所(Grant Thornton)的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示,这可能不像复苏初期的一些月度就业数字那样令人瞠目结舌,但它仍然描绘了一个强劲的劳动力市场。
福奇说,总体而言,就业和工资持续增长,申请失业救济金的人数仍然接近历史最低水平,总体失业率低于4%,所有这些指标都表明美国工作者的情况仍然非常好。
因此,就目前而言,就业市场依然火爆。Bankrate.com高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)认为,那些被解雇的人很容易找到新工作,特别是资质良好或高技能的工作者。
职位空缺与工作者的比率仍然保持在1.8,与有记录以来的第二高点保持一致。“这意味着辞职率将保持在高位。”斯旺克告诉《财富》杂志。她说,在辞职率显著下降之前,美国需要经历“工作者需求遭受严重打击”,即比2020年2月危机前的峰值高出60%以上。
哈姆里克说,推动跳槽的另一个因素是,在新职位工作的工作者更有可能获得更高的薪水。“我预计,至少在短期内,只要失业率处于历史低位,就业市场就仍会相当活跃。”
尽管如此,对于寻找新职位的人来说,仍有很多好的工作机会。但福奇表示,他预计跳槽的速度在今年余下的时间里将会放缓。他说:“人们已经进入了更适合的工作岗位,因此,未来进步的机会将更加有限。”
美联储降低通胀的措施也可能让更多的人留在现有工作岗位上。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)承认,这一过程“不会令人愉快”。加息将推高借贷利率——这可能导致更多的公司勒紧裤腰带过活。而且,这有可能对硅谷产生影响,一些专家担心,更高的利率可能意味着更少的融资轮次。资本自由流动的日子可能要结束了。然后,正如雅各布姆·卡彭特(Jacob Carpenter)在上周四的《数据表》中报告的那样,“对泡沫破裂的担忧可能是没有根据的”。
不过,可以说,最好还是做好充分的准备。因为工作者们现在拥有的影响力可能不会持续到今年底。而且,由于没有人想成为“最后一个被雇佣的人”,求职者可能想确保他们正在寻找的是一份稳定的工作。“对于大多数成年人来说,他们应该把重点放在工作的长期潜力上,但情况并非总是如此。”福奇说。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
This week's business news headlines might have job-seekers worrying that the hot market could be cooling. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. The Dow and Nasdaq continued to fall after a cruel April. And there's a lot of buzz in Silicon Valley that hiring is slowing and more layoffs are on the horizon. Oh, and don't forget about all that recession talk.
In this game of musical chairs, where employees are hopping from job to job in search of the best pay and benefits package, is the music about to stop? Should we all be grabbing a seat and holding on tight so we don't find ourselves without a chair when the next downturn comes?
Experts say it's not time to panic—yet.
Yes, the U.S. is starting to see some changes in the economy—and in the labor market—due to changes in consumer behavior as the pandemic recedes and the Fed starts to raise interest rates, says PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher.
But these are the “normal sorts of ebbs and flows that we see during expansions—not an indication of imminent recession," Faucher tells Fortune. "I wouldn’t read too much into individual company announcements."
In fact, U.S. employers added 428,000 jobs in April, according to the latest data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That might not be as jaw-dropping as some of the monthly job numbers seen earlier in the recovery, but it still depicts a strong labor market, says Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting and consulting firm Grant Thornton.
Overall, there’s continued job and wage growth, unemployment benefit claims are still near record lows, and the overall unemployment rate is below 4%—all indicators that things are still very good for American workers, Faucher says.
So for now, the job market is still hot. Those who have been laid off will easily find new jobs, particularly among well qualified or highly skilled workers, argues Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com senior economic analyst.
The ratio of job openings to workers remains at 1.8, matching the second highest on record. “That means quit rates will remain elevated,” Swonk tells Fortune. The U.S. needs to see a "much more dramatic blow to the demand for workers," which is more than 60% above the pre-crisis peak of February 2020, before quit rates drop significantly, she says.
Another factor driving all the job-hopping is that workers who take new roles are more likely to see higher pay, Hamrick says. “I would expect the job market to remain quite dynamic at least in the near-term and as long as the unemployment rate is at historically low levels.”
Still, while there are lots of good opportunities out there for people looking for new roles, Faucher says he expects job-hopping is going to slow over the rest of this year. “People have moved into jobs that are better fits, and so the opportunities for improvement going forward will be more limited,” he says.
The Fed’s drive to lower inflation may also keep more people in their seats, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging the ride was "not gonna be pleasant." Rate hikes will push borrowing rates much higher—and that could cause more companies to tighten their belts. And there's potential this could have an impact on Silicon Valley, where some experts are concerned that higher interest rates might mean lower funding rounds. The days of free-flowing capital could be ending. Then again, as Jacob Carpenter reported in Thursday's Data Sheet, "fears of a bubble bursting are likely unfounded."
Still, it's arguably better to be over prepared, as the leverage workers have now may not last past this year. And since no one wants to be the "last one hired," job seekers may want to make sure they're looking for a stable position. “For most adults, the focus should be on the long-term potential for a job, but that’s always the case,” Faucher says.