《壮志凌云2:独行侠》(Top Gun: Maverick)是1986年由汤姆·克鲁斯主演电影的续作,上周末在美国的票房超过1亿美元,这部电影可能成为阵亡将士纪念日周末历史上票房最高的国内首映。
电影业分析师没有料到这一情况,但他们集体表示赞赏。《壮志凌云2》的票房收入可能达到10亿美元,这是汤姆·克鲁斯电影的首次实现这一点(也是克鲁斯第一次周末票房收入达到1亿美元)。这部电影成功的可能性表明20世纪70年代和80年代风格的大片可能并不像人们曾经认为的那样无利可图。
媒体分析公司Comscore的电影行业分析师保罗·德加拉贝迪安(Paul Dergarabedian)告诉《财富》杂志:“这真是太神奇了。如果你回到两年前,即2020年,这样的票房基本上是不存在的。”
新冠肺炎疫情扼杀了电影院行业的想法似乎已经破灭,因为德加拉贝迪安称《壮志凌云2》的预期成功“表明”电影院体验的重要性。
《壮志凌云2》是在今年期待已久的超级英雄电影取得巨大票房回报之后推出的,包括《新蝙蝠侠》(The Batman)和《蜘蛛侠:英雄无归》(Spider-Man: No Way Home);后者在今年早些时候成为历史上票房排名第六的电影。
但是,《壮志凌云2》与其他电影的不同之处在于:没有超级英雄。在新冠肺炎疫情时代,只有超级英雄电影才有如此规模的开局。
德加拉贝迪安说:“对于那些觉得电影院注定只有超级英雄类电影的人来说,这是个好消息。超级英雄电影很棒,但我们并不希望电影院只放映这类题材的电影。”
股市的震荡也影响了流媒体服务将在新冠肺炎疫情后取代影院的说法,尤其是考虑到网飞公司(Netflix)今年遇到了严重的财务问题。该行业最大、历史最悠久的流媒体平台在上个季度流失了20万订阅用户,并预计未来还会有数百万用户取消订阅,这让华尔街感到震惊。它现在的价值比以前少了约70%,随着好莱坞电影制片人庆祝他们的新生,流媒体股票大幅下跌。
滞胀的新时代,大片的新黄金时代?
《壮志凌云2》的成功让人回想起电影业大片的鼎盛时期:20世纪70年代和80年代,《大白鲨》(Jaws)和《星球大战》(Star Wars)三部曲等影片彻底重塑了电影的目标、营销方式以及观影体验。
这些类型的电影预示着行业的重大转变。直到1975年票房大卖的《大白鲨》出现之前,电影是按地区发行的,注重声望的高智商电影统治着电影文化,例如弗朗西斯·福特·科波拉(Francis Ford Coppola)1972年的黑帮史诗级电影《教父》(The Godfather)。由机械鲨鱼解锁的巨额资金释放了全国发行的力量,而《大白鲨》也是电影公司高管们首次通过在电视网络上宣传他们的电影而投入巨资进行营销。
大片电影也有宏观经济层面的影响。从《大白鲨》开始并在1977年《星球大战》中得到巩固的革命发生在大通胀(the Great Inflation)时期,那是美国经济动荡时期,类似于今天的电影观众所经历的时期。70年代末和80年代初的通货膨胀率一直高于10%,经济学家们普遍预测,随着21世纪20年代的到来,“滞胀”新时代似乎更像迪斯科时代而不是爵士时代。
德加拉贝迪安说,在经济困难时期,人们往往通过银幕逃避现实。德加拉贝迪安说:“即使我们回到大萧条时期,观影人数也比以往多。没有什么能像电影一样提供绝佳的逃避现实体验。”随着《黑暗骑士》(The Dark Knight)和《钢铁侠》(Iron Man)在2008年上映,超级英雄热潮正式开始,也就是大萧条开始的那一年,这也许并非巧合。
《壮志凌云2》似乎正在掀起对老式大片的兴趣热潮。
德加拉贝迪安说:“这几乎就像是新冠肺炎疫情让好莱坞重获新生。它可以回到过去,从70年代的电影《大白鲨》和《星球大战》电影中汲取经验,这些电影重塑了大片时代。”
他补充道:“[独行侠]绝对是对过去时代的回溯,我认为人们真的很欣赏这种老式的讲故事方式。”
如果《壮志凌云2:独行侠》能像预期的那样取得巨大成功,那么其他制片厂肯定会注意到这一点。
德加拉贝迪安说:“每部上映的电影都是好莱坞的案例研究样本。在好莱坞,没有什么比大片的成功更有说服力,这可能会改变范式,并改变制片厂的态度。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
《壮志凌云2:独行侠》(Top Gun: Maverick)是1986年由汤姆·克鲁斯主演电影的续作,上周末在美国的票房超过1亿美元,这部电影可能成为阵亡将士纪念日周末历史上票房最高的国内首映。
电影业分析师没有料到这一情况,但他们集体表示赞赏。《壮志凌云2》的票房收入可能达到10亿美元,这是汤姆·克鲁斯电影的首次实现这一点(也是克鲁斯第一次周末票房收入达到1亿美元)。这部电影成功的可能性表明20世纪70年代和80年代风格的大片可能并不像人们曾经认为的那样无利可图。
媒体分析公司Comscore的电影行业分析师保罗·德加拉贝迪安(Paul Dergarabedian)告诉《财富》杂志:“这真是太神奇了。如果你回到两年前,即2020年,这样的票房基本上是不存在的。”
新冠肺炎疫情扼杀了电影院行业的想法似乎已经破灭,因为德加拉贝迪安称《壮志凌云2》的预期成功“表明”电影院体验的重要性。
《壮志凌云2》是在今年期待已久的超级英雄电影取得巨大票房回报之后推出的,包括《新蝙蝠侠》(The Batman)和《蜘蛛侠:英雄无归》(Spider-Man: No Way Home);后者在今年早些时候成为历史上票房排名第六的电影。
但是,《壮志凌云2》与其他电影的不同之处在于:没有超级英雄。在新冠肺炎疫情时代,只有超级英雄电影才有如此规模的开局。
德加拉贝迪安说:“对于那些觉得电影院注定只有超级英雄类电影的人来说,这是个好消息。超级英雄电影很棒,但我们并不希望电影院只放映这类题材的电影。”
股市的震荡也影响了流媒体服务将在新冠肺炎疫情后取代影院的说法,尤其是考虑到网飞公司(Netflix)今年遇到了严重的财务问题。该行业最大、历史最悠久的流媒体平台在上个季度流失了20万订阅用户,并预计未来还会有数百万用户取消订阅,这让华尔街感到震惊。它现在的价值比以前少了约70%,随着好莱坞电影制片人庆祝他们的新生,流媒体股票大幅下跌。
滞胀的新时代,大片的新黄金时代?
《壮志凌云2》的成功让人回想起电影业大片的鼎盛时期:20世纪70年代和80年代,《大白鲨》(Jaws)和《星球大战》(Star Wars)三部曲等影片彻底重塑了电影的目标、营销方式以及观影体验。
这些类型的电影预示着行业的重大转变。直到1975年票房大卖的《大白鲨》出现之前,电影是按地区发行的,注重声望的高智商电影统治着电影文化,例如弗朗西斯·福特·科波拉(Francis Ford Coppola)1972年的黑帮史诗级电影《教父》(The Godfather)。由机械鲨鱼解锁的巨额资金释放了全国发行的力量,而《大白鲨》也是电影公司高管们首次通过在电视网络上宣传他们的电影而投入巨资进行营销。
大片电影也有宏观经济层面的影响。从《大白鲨》开始并在1977年《星球大战》中得到巩固的革命发生在大通胀(the Great Inflation)时期,那是美国经济动荡时期,类似于今天的电影观众所经历的时期。70年代末和80年代初的通货膨胀率一直高于10%,经济学家们普遍预测,随着21世纪20年代的到来,“滞胀”新时代似乎更像迪斯科时代而不是爵士时代。
德加拉贝迪安说,在经济困难时期,人们往往通过银幕逃避现实。德加拉贝迪安说:“即使我们回到大萧条时期,观影人数也比以往多。没有什么能像电影一样提供绝佳的逃避现实体验。”随着《黑暗骑士》(The Dark Knight)和《钢铁侠》(Iron Man)在2008年上映,超级英雄热潮正式开始,也就是大萧条开始的那一年,这也许并非巧合。
《壮志凌云2》似乎正在掀起对老式大片的兴趣热潮。
德加拉贝迪安说:“这几乎就像是新冠肺炎疫情让好莱坞重获新生。它可以回到过去,从70年代的电影《大白鲨》和《星球大战》电影中汲取经验,这些电影重塑了大片时代。”
他补充道:“[独行侠]绝对是对过去时代的回溯,我认为人们真的很欣赏这种老式的讲故事方式。”
如果《壮志凌云2:独行侠》能像预期的那样取得巨大成功,那么其他制片厂肯定会注意到这一点。
德加拉贝迪安说:“每部上映的电影都是好莱坞的案例研究样本。在好莱坞,没有什么比大片的成功更有说服力,这可能会改变范式,并改变制片厂的态度。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Top Gun: Maverick, the sequel to the 1986 blockbuster starring Tom Cruise, is expected to rake in over $100 million in the U.S. this weekend, which could make it the highest-grossing domestic opening in the history of Memorial Day weekend.
Film industry analysts weren’t expecting it, but they’re all for it. Top Gun might hit $1 billion gross at the box office, the first time a Tom Cruise movie has done so (as well as Cruise’s first $100 million weekend.) Its likely success suggests that 1970s and ’80s-style blockbusters may not be as unprofitable as once thought.
“This is really amazing,” Paul Dergarabedian, a film industry analyst with media analytics company Comscore, told Fortune. “If you were to go back in time two years ago into 2020 right now, the box office was essentially nonexistent.”
The belief that the pandemic killed the movie theater industry appears to have been dashed, as Dergarabedian calls Top Gun’s expected success “symbolic” of how important the movie theater experience is.
Top Gun comes on the heels of big box-office returns from this year’s much-awaited superhero movies, including The Batman and Spider-Man: No Way Home; the latter became the sixth-highest grossing movie in history earlier this year.
But there’s something that sets Top Gun apart from those other movies: no superheroes. In the pandemic era, only cape movies have opened on this scale.
“This is great news for those who felt like the only types of movies that were destined for movie theaters would be superhero movies,” Dergarabedian said. “Superhero movies are great, but we don't just want the movie theater to be about superheroes.”
The stock market has also undermined the narrative that streaming services were set to replace theaters after the pandemic, especially in light of the serious financial troubles Netflix ran into this year. The industry’s biggest and oldest streaming platform shocked the Street by losing 200,000 subscribers in the last quarter and projecting millions more in subscriber cancellations to come. It’s now worth about 70% less than it used to be, and streaming stocks are widely down as Hollywood film producers celebrate their new lease on life.
A new era of stagflation, a new golden age for blockbusters?
Top Gun’s success harkens back to the heyday of the film industry’s blockbusters: the 1970s and 1980s, when films like Jaws and the Star Wars trilogy completely reinvented what movies could aim for, how they were marketed, and what the moviegoing experience could be.
These types of movies predicated a major shift in the industry. Until the big-bang moment of box-office smash Jaws in 1975, films were released on a regional basis, and prestige-driven, intellectual movies ruled film culture, such as Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 gangster epic The Godfather. The vast sums unlocked by a mechanical shark unleashed the power of the national release, And Jaws was also the first time studio executives invested huge sums toward marketing by advertising their movies on television networks.
There’s also a macroeconomic dimension to blockbuster cinema. The revolution that began with Jaws and was entrenched with Star Wars in 1977 came during the Great Inflation, a period of economic turmoil in the U.S. similar to the one moviegoers are living through today. Inflation rates in the late ’70s and early ’80s were consistently above 10%, and economists are widely predicting a new era of “stagflation” as the 2020s come to seem more like the disco era than the Jazz Age.
Dergarabedian says hard economic times have often lent themselves to escapism on the screen. “Even if we go back to the Great Depression, there was more moviegoing than ever before,” Dergarabedian said. “Nothing provides a great escape like the movies.” It’s perhaps no coincidence that the superhero boom began in earnest with The Dark Knight and Iron Man in 2008, the year the Great Recession began.
And the new Top Gun appears to be riding the wave of heightened interest in old-school blockbusters.
“It's almost like the pandemic is enabling Hollywood to hit the reset,” Dergarabedian said. “It can go back and learn from the ’70s with movies like Jaws and the Star Wars movies, which reinvented the blockbuster era.”
“[Maverick] is definitely a throwback to a bygone era, and I think people really appreciate that it's kind of old-fashioned storytelling,” he added.
If Top Gun: Maverick is as massive a success as projected, surely other studios will take notice.
“Every movie that opens is a case study for Hollywood,” Dergarabedian said. “Nothing talks in Hollywood like a big blockbuster success, and that may change the paradigm and change the attitude by studios.”