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原油供应危机拖累夏季旅游业

WILL DANIEL
2022-06-03

如果消费者的开支因此而受到了打击,那么这对于全球经济增长来说是个更加严峻的问题。

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受乌克兰战争导致的供应中断影响,原油生产商难以满足夏季旅游季不断增长的需求。在过去一个月中,美国燃油价格几乎每周都会刷新最高记录。

与此同时,机票价格自1月以来的涨幅已经超过了37%,让消费者充分感受到了前所未有的夏季旅游成本压力。然而,屋漏偏逢连夜雨,一则坏消息近期横空出世。

周二,欧盟最终在其第六轮对俄制裁中通过了对俄部分原油禁运的禁令。尽管众多外交政策专家对此拍手叫好,但对于全球消费者而言,此举可能会加剧能源价格上涨问题。

欧盟官员称,到年底,欧盟将禁运90%的俄罗斯原油,然而通过原油管道输送的俄罗斯原油并不在禁运之列。管道输送原油占到了欧盟当前从俄罗斯购买原油总量的三分之一。

周二,原油禁运令新闻导致国际基准油价布伦特原油期货(Brent crude oil futures)价格上涨了1.4%,达到了123.3美元/桶, 西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)价格上涨了2.1%,达到了117.5美元/桶。

这对于旅行者来说是个坏消息,但如果消费者的开支因此而受到了打击,那么这对于全球经济增长来说是个更加严峻的问题。

欧洲遭遇油荒,美国油价屡创新高

国际能源机构(International Energy Agency)负责人法提赫·比罗尔在周二接受德国媒体DerSpiegel的采访时警告说,原油供应的下滑可能会导致其价格在短期内提升,甚至可能导致欧洲原油的短缺。

比罗尔表示:“当欧洲和美国的首要假日季开始后,燃油需求会增加。然后短缺可能就会接踵而至,例如,柴油、汽油或煤油,尤其是欧洲。”

比罗尔还表示,当前的能源价格涨幅要比上个世纪70年代的原油危机“高的多”,而且可能会持续更长的时间。

他说:“当时,短缺的仅限于原油。如今,我们同时面临着原油危机,天然气危机以及电力危机。”

受其影响,美国燃油价格再创新高,达到了4.62美元/加仑,同比增幅超过了51%。

别忘了中国

中国解除其在上海和北京执行的严格疫情管控也推高了全球原油需求。

中国官员在周一表示,在其居民经历了两个月的封禁之苦后,上海将在6月1日前解除其最严格的管控。

瑞银全球财富管理公司首席信息官马克·海夫勒称,考虑到欧盟对俄原油禁运令导致的供给侧限制,上海的解封将为原油价格带来进一步的利好。

在周二的一篇纪要中,海夫勒还指出,“生产方面的投资不足”以及原油替代供应的缺乏,会导致关键大宗商品的价格处于长期攀升状态。

需求破坏以及能源价格对通胀的影响

受此影响,消费者将面临有史以来最为严峻的夏季旅游季,而且随着这一被经济学家称之为需求破坏的现象成为主流,不断上涨的能源价格已经导致很多人重新考虑今夏的旅游计划。

需求破坏,即某种商品的需求在遭遇价格持续高涨时会持续下滑,可能会因全球已然出现的经济增长放缓现象而进一步加剧,尤其在发展中国家。

自今年开始以来,投资银行和经济学家纷纷下调了对全球GDP的增速预测。国际货币基金组织(IMF)在4月预计2022年全球GDP增速仅为3.6%,比其1月份的预测下滑了近1个百分点。

线上经纪商FxPro高级市场分析师亚历克斯·库普提克维奇向《财富》杂志透露:“从历史长河来看,原油价格已接近不可持续的高位。高居不下的能源成本已经导致欧洲和美国这些全球最富有地区的零售消费支出的下滑。毫无疑问的是,受持续高油价的影响,发展中国家的经济甚至正在经历更加严重的下滑。”

不断增长的能源价格还加剧了西方的通胀现象。尽管一些投行和经济学家认为,未来几个月美国的通胀率将较其近40年来的高点有所下滑,但不断增长的能源价格可能会给这一预测带来挑战。

伊派克•奥兹卡尔德斯卡亚向《财富》杂志透露:“当然,有消息称,欧洲以及西方的通胀局面可能会在好转之前变得更加糟糕。尽管我们看到美国通胀数据在本月早些时候有所缓和,但原油价格受到的持续上行压力也让美国担忧不已。”

如果通胀率持续增长,需求破坏只会加剧。毕竟,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)5月23日的调查显示,超过半数的美国人称,受通胀影响,他们计划削减开支。

然而,并非所有专家都预测油气价格在长期内将持续走高。

库普提克维奇表示:“原油的长期走势依然不甚明朗。目前已经接近120美元的原油市场到底是会持续多年高位运行,还是会重蹈2014年或2008年的崩盘覆辙,这两方面的概率可谓是旗鼓相当。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

受乌克兰战争导致的供应中断影响,原油生产商难以满足夏季旅游季不断增长的需求。在过去一个月中,美国燃油价格几乎每周都会刷新最高记录。

与此同时,机票价格自1月以来的涨幅已经超过了37%,让消费者充分感受到了前所未有的夏季旅游成本压力。然而,屋漏偏逢连夜雨,一则坏消息近期横空出世。

周二,欧盟最终在其第六轮对俄制裁中通过了对俄部分原油禁运的禁令。尽管众多外交政策专家对此拍手叫好,但对于全球消费者而言,此举可能会加剧能源价格上涨问题。

欧盟官员称,到年底,欧盟将禁运90%的俄罗斯原油,然而通过原油管道输送的俄罗斯原油并不在禁运之列。管道输送原油占到了欧盟当前从俄罗斯购买原油总量的三分之一。

周二,原油禁运令新闻导致国际基准油价布伦特原油期货(Brent crude oil futures)价格上涨了1.4%,达到了123.3美元/桶, 西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)价格上涨了2.1%,达到了117.5美元/桶。

这对于旅行者来说是个坏消息,但如果消费者的开支因此而受到了打击,那么这对于全球经济增长来说是个更加严峻的问题。

欧洲遭遇油荒,美国油价屡创新高

国际能源机构(International Energy Agency)负责人法提赫·比罗尔在周二接受德国媒体DerSpiegel的采访时警告说,原油供应的下滑可能会导致其价格在短期内提升,甚至可能导致欧洲原油的短缺。

比罗尔表示:“当欧洲和美国的首要假日季开始后,燃油需求会增加。然后短缺可能就会接踵而至,例如,柴油、汽油或煤油,尤其是欧洲。”

比罗尔还表示,当前的能源价格涨幅要比上个世纪70年代的原油危机“高的多”,而且可能会持续更长的时间。

他说:“当时,短缺的仅限于原油。如今,我们同时面临着原油危机,天然气危机以及电力危机。”

受其影响,美国燃油价格再创新高,达到了4.62美元/加仑,同比增幅超过了51%。

别忘了中国

中国解除其在上海和北京执行的严格疫情管控也推高了全球原油需求。

中国官员在周一表示,在其居民经历了两个月的封禁之苦后,上海将在6月1日前解除其最严格的管控。

瑞银全球财富管理公司首席信息官马克·海夫勒称,考虑到欧盟对俄原油禁运令导致的供给侧限制,上海的解封将为原油价格带来进一步的利好。

在周二的一篇纪要中,海夫勒还指出,“生产方面的投资不足”以及原油替代供应的缺乏,会导致关键大宗商品的价格处于长期攀升状态。

需求破坏以及能源价格对通胀的影响

受此影响,消费者将面临有史以来最为严峻的夏季旅游季,而且随着这一被经济学家称之为需求破坏的现象成为主流,不断上涨的能源价格已经导致很多人重新考虑今夏的旅游计划。

需求破坏,即某种商品的需求在遭遇价格持续高涨时会持续下滑,可能会因全球已然出现的经济增长放缓现象而进一步加剧,尤其在发展中国家。

自今年开始以来,投资银行和经济学家纷纷下调了对全球GDP的增速预测。国际货币基金组织(IMF)在4月预计2022年全球GDP增速仅为3.6%,比其1月份的预测下滑了近1个百分点。

线上经纪商FxPro高级市场分析师亚历克斯·库普提克维奇向《财富》杂志透露:“从历史长河来看,原油价格已接近不可持续的高位。高居不下的能源成本已经导致欧洲和美国这些全球最富有地区的零售消费支出的下滑。毫无疑问的是,受持续高油价的影响,发展中国家的经济甚至正在经历更加严重的下滑。”

不断增长的能源价格还加剧了西方的通胀现象。尽管一些投行和经济学家认为,未来几个月美国的通胀率将较其近40年来的高点有所下滑,但不断增长的能源价格可能会给这一预测带来挑战。

伊派克•奥兹卡尔德斯卡亚向《财富》杂志透露:“当然,有消息称,欧洲以及西方的通胀局面可能会在好转之前变得更加糟糕。尽管我们看到美国通胀数据在本月早些时候有所缓和,但原油价格受到的持续上行压力也让美国担忧不已。”

如果通胀率持续增长,需求破坏只会加剧。毕竟,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)5月23日的调查显示,超过半数的美国人称,受通胀影响,他们计划削减开支。

然而,并非所有专家都预测油气价格在长期内将持续走高。

库普提克维奇表示:“原油的长期走势依然不甚明朗。目前已经接近120美元的原油市场到底是会持续多年高位运行,还是会重蹈2014年或2008年的崩盘覆辙,这两方面的概率可谓是旗鼓相当。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

U.S. gas prices have hit fresh record highs nearly every week over the past month as oil producers, affected by disruptions from the war in Ukraine, struggle to match rising demand from the summer travel season.

At the same time, airfare prices have spiked over 37% since January, setting up consumers for summer travel costs they’ve never seen before—and that was all before the latest bad news.

On Tuesday, the European Union finally included a partial ban on Russian oil in its sixth set of sanctions against the country. While the move has been applauded by many foreign policy experts, it will likely bring more energy price headaches for consumers worldwide.

EU officials said that 90% of Russian crude imports will be cut by the end of the year, but there will be an exemption for oil delivered from Russia via pipelines, which accounts for up to one-third of the bloc’s current purchases from the country.

News of the ban led Brent crude oil futures, the international benchmark, to jump 1.4% to $123.3 per barrel on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 2.1% to $117.5 per barrel.

That’s bad news for travelers, but it could be even worse news for global economic growth if consumers are discouraged from spending altogether.

Shortages in Europe, more record highs in the U.S.

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned on Tuesday in an interview with the German outlet Der Spiegel that falling oil supplies will likely lead prices to remain elevated in the near term and could even cause shortages in Europe.

"When the main holiday season starts in Europe and the U.S., fuel demand will rise," Birol said. "Then we could see shortages, for example, in diesel, petrol, or kerosene, particularly in Europe."

Birol added that current energy price increases are "much bigger" than what was seen during the oil shocks of the 1970s—and they could last longer, too.

“Back then it was just about oil," he said. "Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis, and an electricity crisis simultaneously."

In the U.S., gas prices responded to the ban by notching yet another record high of $4.62 per gallon. That’s a more than 51% jump compared to the same period a year ago.

Don’t forget about China

China’s move to end its strict lockdown policy in Shanghai and Beijing is also adding to the global demand for oil.

Chinese officials said on Monday they will scrap the strictest lockdown measures in Shanghai by June 1 after two months of hardship for residents.

It’s a move that UBS Global Wealth Management’s CIO Mark Haefele said will cause “further upside” for oil prices ahead when coupled with supply-side restrictions from the EU’s ban on Russian imports.

In a Tuesday research note, Haefele added that “underinvestment in production” and a lack of alternative supply for oil should cause the critical commodity’s price to remain “higher for longer” as well.

Demand destruction and energy prices’ effects on inflation

As a result, consumers are facing one of the toughest summer travel seasons in history, and rising energy prices are already causing many to second-guess travel decisions for this summer as a phenomenon economists call demand destruction takes hold.

Demand destruction—or a sustained decline in the demand for a certain good amid persistently high prices—could exacerbate an economic growth slowdown that is already underway worldwide, especially in developing nations.

Forecasts for global GDP growth from investment banks and economists have been repeatedly cut since the start of the year, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) saying in April that it expects global GDP will rise by just 3.6% in 2022, or nearly a percentage point less than its January estimates.

“From a historical perspective, [oil] prices are close to unsustainably high levels,” Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at the online broker FxPro, told Fortune. “Already, high energy costs are causing a decline in retail consumption in Europe and the U.S., the world’s wealthiest regions. No doubt developing countries are experiencing an even more significant slowdown in their economies because of prevailing high fuel prices.”

Rising energy prices also darken the picture when it comes to inflation in the West. Although some investment banks and economists have argued that inflation in the U.S. should come down from its nearly four-decade highs in the coming months, elevated energy prices could challenge that prediction.

“Of course, the news suggests that the inflation situation in Europe, and in the West, could get worse before it gets better,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya told Fortune. “Even though we saw some easing in U.S. inflation figures earlier this month, the relentless positive pressure on oil prices is very much worrying across the Atlantic.”

If inflation remains elevated, demand destruction will only worsen. After all, more than half of Americans have said they plan to cut back on spending due to inflation in a May 23 Morgan Stanley survey.

Still, not every expert is predicting oil and gas prices will remain elevated over the long term.

“The longer-term prospects [of oil] remain an open question,” Kuptsikevich said. “The chances are now roughly equal that the oil market at levels near $120 remains at the foot of an extended multiyear rally or is ready to repeat the collapse of 2014 or 2008.”

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