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美国失业率创近50年新低,但高通胀仍让消费者“捂紧钱袋子”

HILLARY HOFFOWER
2022-06-07

通胀让消费者情不自禁地捂紧了“钱袋子”,而低失业率也无法点燃大家的消费热情。

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今年,美国人找工作的积极性超过了半个世纪以来的大多数年份。只有少数几年,美国的失业率比现在还低。

美国劳工统计局上周五发布的就业报告显示,美国的失业率已经连续三个月保持在3.6%的水平。也就是说,刨去2019年的最后几个月和2020年的头几个月,美国当前的失业率要低于70、80、90和00年代的任何一个月份。

低失业率对于经济来说是一个积极的信号,尤其是对美国这样一个近两年深受疫情摧残的国家来说。从某个角度讲,就业可以说就是经济的全部意义所在。参与生产的工人越多,生计无着的人口就越少。自从拜登上台以来,拜登政府的刺激计划提振了需求,带来了一波就业的繁荣。但美国经济仍然存在两个突出问题,一是当前美国的通胀率处于70年代末以来的最高点,二是并非所有新工作都像高物价一样能够引起美国人的关心。

自从去年夏天,疫苗护体的美国逐渐解封以来,消费者的情绪一直处于疲软状态。虽然经济的复苏表现超过了预期,但消费者的信心甚至仍低于2021年底,也就是美国疫情最水深火热的时候。今年5月份,美国消费者信心指数更是下跌至10年来的最低水平。

消费者情绪之所以如此悲观,或许是因为大家都没料到疫情过了两年还看不到头,另一方面则是受到了高物价的影响。通胀让消费者情不自禁地捂紧了“钱袋子”,而低失业率也无法点燃大家的消费热情。

有工作不等于有购买力

受俄乌战争和严重的供应链问题影响,美国的生活必需品和享受性消费的成本在不断飙升。上周三,美国油价已经涨到4.67美元每加仑的历史新高。食品价格也以几十年未见的速度攀升,牛肉等部分品类涨价超过16%。另外,根据美国在线旅游网站Hopper的数据,今年夏天美国的国内机票价格也比2019年上涨了34%。

这些都是高通胀造成的恶果。虽然美国4月份的CPI同比上涨8.3%,增速已较前几个月有所放缓,但它仍在相当程度上削弱了消费者的购买力。

《华盛顿邮报》的一项分析指出,通胀对低收入家庭的打击最为严重,因为他们在生活必需品上的支出比例更大,而生活必需品恰恰是通胀最严重的商品。科尔士和沃尔玛等大型连锁超市都指出,现在的消费者已经开始“消费降级”,对部分商品转而购买更实惠的替代品,甚至干脆放弃了购买某些商品。CNBC的一项调查也显示,就连高收入家庭也在削减旅行和外出就餐等一些非必要支出。

在最新就业数据发布后,美国总统拜登在上周五的讲话中表示,美国就业市场正处于二战以来最活跃的时期。但他也承认,油价和粮价仍是工薪阶层面临的最大挑战,并承诺政府将想方设法降低生活必需品价格。

可以肯定的是,消费者情绪与消费者行为之间仍存在一定的脱节。自从去年美国出台一揽子救市政策以来,虽然美国消费者总体上勒紧了裤腰带,但这并不影响一部分人还在大刷信用卡。另外,有些经济学家认为,美国的通胀已过拐点。美国东北大学经济学教授罗伯特·特里斯特最近对《财富》表示,他预计美国的消费者价格将会有所回落,而且美联储的加息一定程度上将在年底前为美国经济降温。

但是美联储降通胀的努力,某种程度上也引起了人们对经济衰退的担忧。

二次元资本管理公司创始人南希·戴维斯上月对《财富》表示:“如果美联储在降通胀上过于激进,最终可能会损害总体经济和就业市场。所以美联储应该想法设法做好平衡,在不损害经济健康的前提下稳定物价。”

最后,至于是低失业率重要,还是保持低物价重要,我相信大多数美国人会毫不犹豫给出自己的答案。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

今年,美国人找工作的积极性超过了半个世纪以来的大多数年份。只有少数几年,美国的失业率比现在还低。

美国劳工统计局上周五发布的就业报告显示,美国的失业率已经连续三个月保持在3.6%的水平。也就是说,刨去2019年的最后几个月和2020年的头几个月,美国当前的失业率要低于70、80、90和00年代的任何一个月份。

低失业率对于经济来说是一个积极的信号,尤其是对美国这样一个近两年深受疫情摧残的国家来说。从某个角度讲,就业可以说就是经济的全部意义所在。参与生产的工人越多,生计无着的人口就越少。自从拜登上台以来,拜登政府的刺激计划提振了需求,带来了一波就业的繁荣。但美国经济仍然存在两个突出问题,一是当前美国的通胀率处于70年代末以来的最高点,二是并非所有新工作都像高物价一样能够引起美国人的关心。

自从去年夏天,疫苗护体的美国逐渐解封以来,消费者的情绪一直处于疲软状态。虽然经济的复苏表现超过了预期,但消费者的信心甚至仍低于2021年底,也就是美国疫情最水深火热的时候。今年5月份,美国消费者信心指数更是下跌至10年来的最低水平。

消费者情绪之所以如此悲观,或许是因为大家都没料到疫情过了两年还看不到头,另一方面则是受到了高物价的影响。通胀让消费者情不自禁地捂紧了“钱袋子”,而低失业率也无法点燃大家的消费热情。

有工作不等于有购买力

受俄乌战争和严重的供应链问题影响,美国的生活必需品和享受性消费的成本在不断飙升。上周三,美国油价已经涨到4.67美元每加仑的历史新高。食品价格也以几十年未见的速度攀升,牛肉等部分品类涨价超过16%。另外,根据美国在线旅游网站Hopper的数据,今年夏天美国的国内机票价格也比2019年上涨了34%。

这些都是高通胀造成的恶果。虽然美国4月份的CPI同比上涨8.3%,增速已较前几个月有所放缓,但它仍在相当程度上削弱了消费者的购买力。

《华盛顿邮报》的一项分析指出,通胀对低收入家庭的打击最为严重,因为他们在生活必需品上的支出比例更大,而生活必需品恰恰是通胀最严重的商品。科尔士和沃尔玛等大型连锁超市都指出,现在的消费者已经开始“消费降级”,对部分商品转而购买更实惠的替代品,甚至干脆放弃了购买某些商品。CNBC的一项调查也显示,就连高收入家庭也在削减旅行和外出就餐等一些非必要支出。

在最新就业数据发布后,美国总统拜登在上周五的讲话中表示,美国就业市场正处于二战以来最活跃的时期。但他也承认,油价和粮价仍是工薪阶层面临的最大挑战,并承诺政府将想方设法降低生活必需品价格。

可以肯定的是,消费者情绪与消费者行为之间仍存在一定的脱节。自从去年美国出台一揽子救市政策以来,虽然美国消费者总体上勒紧了裤腰带,但这并不影响一部分人还在大刷信用卡。另外,有些经济学家认为,美国的通胀已过拐点。美国东北大学经济学教授罗伯特·特里斯特最近对《财富》表示,他预计美国的消费者价格将会有所回落,而且美联储的加息一定程度上将在年底前为美国经济降温。

但是美联储降通胀的努力,某种程度上也引起了人们对经济衰退的担忧。

二次元资本管理公司创始人南希·戴维斯上月对《财富》表示:“如果美联储在降通胀上过于激进,最终可能会损害总体经济和就业市场。所以美联储应该想法设法做好平衡,在不损害经济健康的前提下稳定物价。”

最后,至于是低失业率重要,还是保持低物价重要,我相信大多数美国人会毫不犹豫给出自己的答案。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

More Americans are finding work than any time during the past 50 years except for just a few.

The 3.6% unemployment rate has been holding steady for three months in a row, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report released on Friday. With the exception of the last few months of 2019 and the first few months of 2020, it’s a lower unemployment rate than any single month throughout the 1970s, ’80s, ’90s, and 2000s.

That’s usually a positive sign for the economy, especially one that has been ravaged by a global health crisis. From one perspective, jobs are the whole point of the economy: More workers means more productivity and fewer people struggling to pay their bills. President Joe Biden's stimulus package helped supercharge demand that created a jobs boom. There are just two problems: Inflation is also higher than any time since the late ’70s, and Americans don’t seem to care about all the new jobs as much as the high price of stuff.

Since America entered a post-vaccinated world and began reopening in full force last summer, consumer sentiment has been miserable. Despite the economy outperforming expectations in its recovery, consumer confidence was lower than it was during the depths of the pandemic at the end of 2021. Come May, it dropped to a 10-year low.

While the fact that we're still dealing with a pandemic two years later may have something to do with this pessimism, rising prices have been putting Americans in a foul mood. Their wallets are feeling the burn of inflation, and low unemployment just doesn't seem to be moving the needle.

Americans miss their fat wallets

The cost of life's necessities and pleasures have been soaring thanks to a number of reasons, from war to a historic supply shortage. Gas prices hit a record high of $4.67 per gallon on Wednesday. Food prices are climbing at rates Americans haven't seen in decades, with the cost of some items like beef increasing by 16%. And domestic airfare prices for summer vacation are up by 34% compared to summer 2019, per a report by online travel site Hopper.

It's all an effect of that high inflation. Although it moderated in April to an 8.3% year-over-year increase, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), a slower rate than the prior seven months of consecutive gains, it was still enough to eat away at Americans’ bank accounts.

An analysis by the Washington Post found that it’s hitting lower-income households the hardest because those spend a greater share of their total spending on necessities, some of inflation’s biggest targets. Both Kohl’s and Walmart noted that customers were starting to reel in their spending by shifting to more affordable alternatives or avoiding some purchases altogether. Even higher-income households are cutting back their discretionary spending on things like travel and dining out, per a CNBC survey.

In a speech on Friday following the jobs report, Biden noted the job market is the strongest it's been since World War II but acknowledged that prices at the pump and grocery store are the biggest challenges for working families, promising to bring down the cost of everyday goods.

To be sure, a disconnect between consumer sentiment and consumer behavior persists. While Americans’ shopping binge has curbed since last year’s stimulus, they’re still busy swiping their credit cards. And some economists believe we've reached peak inflation. Robert Triest, a Northeastern University economics professor, recently told Fortune he expects consumer prices to moderate, arguing the Fed’s interest rate increases will help cool the economy through the end of the year.

But talk of the Fed’s efforts to cool inflation have sent recessionary fears swirling.

“If the Fed is too aggressive with its efforts to slow inflation, they might end up hurting the overall economy and the jobs market,” Nancy Davis, the founder of Quadratic Capital Management, told Fortune last month. “It is a fine balance for the Federal Reserve to prioritize its inflation mandate without hurting the economy.”

When it comes to finding work for everyone or keeping costs low, there’s no question about what matters most to Americans.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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