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顶级策略师教你在不同衰退场景下如何投资

ANNE SRADERS
2022-06-11

如果经济衰退近在咫尺,你该怎么投资?

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市场和经济摇摇欲坠,华尔街最近讨论最多的问题是:我们到底会不会再次陷入衰退?对于投资者来说,知道在不同情况下如何投资才能打好有准备之仗。

“现在人们的神经都非常紧张,甚至不是因为市场本身的动荡,而是因为世界的动荡。”摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎•谢利特在接受《财富》采访时从更广泛的层面谈到了地缘政治的不确定性:“我们正处在一个相当令人焦虑的时期。”

穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)首席经济学家马克•赞迪向本刊表示,未来一到两年内出现经济衰退的可能性“高得令人不安”。他认为,未来12个月出现衰退的几率大概为三分之一,称他正在密切关注油价、消费者信心、收益率曲线等数据进行预测。

对投资者来说,衰退可能意味着要改变策略,转向防守型投资(即高增长股和科技股可能不会像过去两年那么吃香了)。今年以来,标准普尔500指数下跌了近14%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌了近23%。

“如果我们看到通胀再次加速,如果再发生一次可怕的地缘政治事件……情况就会持续失控,推高通胀,然后我们今年年底前可能就会被推到衰退的边缘,”LPL Financial的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克说。

当前,美国经济的发展走势尚不明朗,《财富》采访了若干策略师关于投资者应当如何为不同情况做好准备的问题。

场景1:2022年未出现衰退

一些策略师认为,我们不会经历经济衰退,至少近期不会。

摩根士丹利的谢利特持这种观点,原因可以简单地归结为:“从更广泛的经济学角度来看,我们为什么认为不会出现衰退,因为如果要发生衰退,必然会对消费者产生实质性冲击。现在,消费情况非常好,就业市场仍然非常强劲。”她说,“尽管收入增长跟不上通货膨胀,确实存在不安情绪,但现实是消费者仍然在花钱。”

确实,尽管消费者信心一直在下降,但目前消费仍然强劲,就业数据仍然稳定,失业率徘徊在3.6%左右。LPL的德特里克表示,与此同时,美国企业的资产负债表“结构也非常稳健”。(和谢利特一样,他认为今年发生衰退的可能性“很小”。)

事实上,德特里克等偏乐观的策略师认为,如果通胀能很快见顶,这甚至可能成为提振信心的“重要催化剂”,推动下半年股市实现反弹。

如果经济形势不错,德特里克建议多买一些“受到打击”的股市宠儿——即科技和成长型公司,以及通信服务公司。今年以来,我们经历了科技股大规模暴跌,因此这些股票“相对于过去的价格便宜了”。德特里克还指出,目前小盘股普遍处于“历史”低点,如果能避免衰退,经济甚至“意外上扬”,小盘股或将成为十分有吸引力的选择。

兰迪•弗雷德里克还说:“周期性股票在市场繁荣时表现也很不错。”他是嘉信金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)交易和衍生品董事总经理。谢利特也说,如果我们真的迎来了“经济重新加速的情况,你会愿意重新用周期股填满你的弹药库”,还会想要持有能源、银行、住房、零售、非必需消费品以及“这一类的产品”。

场景2:(标准)衰退

在谈到经济衰退时,嘉信的弗雷德里克说:“衰退不是一个会不会出现的问题,而是什么时候出现、程度多深、持续多久的问题。”(他的看法是:很有可能是“相对温和的”衰退,持续不长。)

专家们指出,的确有一些令人担忧的迹象,包括像塔吉特(Target)和沃尔玛(Walmart)等大型零售商最近的业绩发出的关于库存过剩的预警信号,在谢利特看来,这是导致第一季度GDP负数的原因。华尔街也在密切关注美联储抗击通胀的政策,以及这些政策是否会导致美国经济陷入衰退。穆迪的赞迪推断,未来两年经济衰退的可能性接近50%。

如果你不喜欢这种可能性,甚至认为未来可能更黑暗,策略师建议投资者可以相应采取一些措施。

夏利特、德特里克和弗雷德里克等人指出,出现经济衰退时,公用事业、日用品、医疗保健、大盘股、非周期性科技股、保险和电信等防御性股票可能会表现不错。然而,弗雷德里克提醒道:“并不是说让你卖掉所有的科技股,全部买入公用事业和日用品股票,而是说或许可以把科技股减持5%或10%,然后增持5%或10%的公用事业、医疗或必需品股票。”他说这几个领域的股息收益通常很高,可以在困难时期额外提供一点缓冲。

LPL的德特里克还表示,尽管债券今年表现不佳,但债券在衰退时期的业绩也会不错。

但好消息是,在接受《财富》采访的策略师中,没有一个人预测这次衰退会特别严重,认为应该是一次普通衰退。

场景3:没有衰退,但增长疲软或滞胀

一些人称之为“软着陆”“滞胀”或“周期中期放缓”,投资者可能面临的情况是,经济没有陷入衰退,但增长疲软或放缓。

LPL的德特里克认为我们正处于“周期中期放缓”阶段。事实上,赞迪等经济学家认为,给过去两年的快速复苏降降温,特别是就业方面的降温“是必要的——我们需要减速”。

摩根士丹利的夏利特认为,我们正处于而且可能将继续处于滞胀环境中,即高通胀、经济增长放缓的环境。这种环境下,她建议投资者“持有一切”,也就是说“摒弃风格偏好、行业偏好、地区偏好、要素偏好;不追求势头,也不追求品质。保持中立,顺着市场的浪潮起伏,确保同时接触市场的两面,因为市场太难判断了。”换句话说:保持投资的多元。

LPL的德特里克也有同样的想法,他认为,在这种情况下,与其让投资者在市场中“挑选最喜欢的股票”,不如“采用杠铃投资模式,持有一些成长股,一些价值股,这样还更合理。”

无论美国经济走势如何,提前做好准备总没有什么坏处。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

市场和经济摇摇欲坠,华尔街最近讨论最多的问题是:我们到底会不会再次陷入衰退?对于投资者来说,知道在不同情况下如何投资才能打好有准备之仗。

“现在人们的神经都非常紧张,甚至不是因为市场本身的动荡,而是因为世界的动荡。”摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎•谢利特在接受《财富》采访时从更广泛的层面谈到了地缘政治的不确定性:“我们正处在一个相当令人焦虑的时期。”

穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)首席经济学家马克•赞迪向本刊表示,未来一到两年内出现经济衰退的可能性“高得令人不安”。他认为,未来12个月出现衰退的几率大概为三分之一,称他正在密切关注油价、消费者信心、收益率曲线等数据进行预测。

对投资者来说,衰退可能意味着要改变策略,转向防守型投资(即高增长股和科技股可能不会像过去两年那么吃香了)。今年以来,标准普尔500指数下跌了近14%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌了近23%。

“如果我们看到通胀再次加速,如果再发生一次可怕的地缘政治事件……情况就会持续失控,推高通胀,然后我们今年年底前可能就会被推到衰退的边缘,”LPL Financial的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克说。

当前,美国经济的发展走势尚不明朗,《财富》采访了若干策略师关于投资者应当如何为不同情况做好准备的问题。

场景1:2022年未出现衰退

一些策略师认为,我们不会经历经济衰退,至少近期不会。

摩根士丹利的谢利特持这种观点,原因可以简单地归结为:“从更广泛的经济学角度来看,我们为什么认为不会出现衰退,因为如果要发生衰退,必然会对消费者产生实质性冲击。现在,消费情况非常好,就业市场仍然非常强劲。”她说,“尽管收入增长跟不上通货膨胀,确实存在不安情绪,但现实是消费者仍然在花钱。”

确实,尽管消费者信心一直在下降,但目前消费仍然强劲,就业数据仍然稳定,失业率徘徊在3.6%左右。LPL的德特里克表示,与此同时,美国企业的资产负债表“结构也非常稳健”。(和谢利特一样,他认为今年发生衰退的可能性“很小”。)

事实上,德特里克等偏乐观的策略师认为,如果通胀能很快见顶,这甚至可能成为提振信心的“重要催化剂”,推动下半年股市实现反弹。

如果经济形势不错,德特里克建议多买一些“受到打击”的股市宠儿——即科技和成长型公司,以及通信服务公司。今年以来,我们经历了科技股大规模暴跌,因此这些股票“相对于过去的价格便宜了”。德特里克还指出,目前小盘股普遍处于“历史”低点,如果能避免衰退,经济甚至“意外上扬”,小盘股或将成为十分有吸引力的选择。

兰迪•弗雷德里克还说:“周期性股票在市场繁荣时表现也很不错。”他是嘉信金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)交易和衍生品董事总经理。谢利特也说,如果我们真的迎来了“经济重新加速的情况,你会愿意重新用周期股填满你的弹药库”,还会想要持有能源、银行、住房、零售、非必需消费品以及“这一类的产品”。

场景2:(标准)衰退

在谈到经济衰退时,嘉信的弗雷德里克说:“衰退不是一个会不会出现的问题,而是什么时候出现、程度多深、持续多久的问题。”(他的看法是:很有可能是“相对温和的”衰退,持续不长。)

专家们指出,的确有一些令人担忧的迹象,包括像塔吉特(Target)和沃尔玛(Walmart)等大型零售商最近的业绩发出的关于库存过剩的预警信号,在谢利特看来,这是导致第一季度GDP负数的原因。华尔街也在密切关注美联储抗击通胀的政策,以及这些政策是否会导致美国经济陷入衰退。穆迪的赞迪推断,未来两年经济衰退的可能性接近50%。

如果你不喜欢这种可能性,甚至认为未来可能更黑暗,策略师建议投资者可以相应采取一些措施。

夏利特、德特里克和弗雷德里克等人指出,出现经济衰退时,公用事业、日用品、医疗保健、大盘股、非周期性科技股、保险和电信等防御性股票可能会表现不错。然而,弗雷德里克提醒道:“并不是说让你卖掉所有的科技股,全部买入公用事业和日用品股票,而是说或许可以把科技股减持5%或10%,然后增持5%或10%的公用事业、医疗或必需品股票。”他说这几个领域的股息收益通常很高,可以在困难时期额外提供一点缓冲。

LPL的德特里克还表示,尽管债券今年表现不佳,但债券在衰退时期的业绩也会不错。

但好消息是,在接受《财富》采访的策略师中,没有一个人预测这次衰退会特别严重,认为应该是一次普通衰退。

场景3:没有衰退,但增长疲软或滞胀

一些人称之为“软着陆”“滞胀”或“周期中期放缓”,投资者可能面临的情况是,经济没有陷入衰退,但增长疲软或放缓。

LPL的德特里克认为我们正处于“周期中期放缓”阶段。事实上,赞迪等经济学家认为,给过去两年的快速复苏降降温,特别是就业方面的降温“是必要的——我们需要减速”。

摩根士丹利的夏利特认为,我们正处于而且可能将继续处于滞胀环境中,即高通胀、经济增长放缓的环境。这种环境下,她建议投资者“持有一切”,也就是说“摒弃风格偏好、行业偏好、地区偏好、要素偏好;不追求势头,也不追求品质。保持中立,顺着市场的浪潮起伏,确保同时接触市场的两面,因为市场太难判断了。”换句话说:保持投资的多元。

LPL的德特里克也有同样的想法,他认为,在这种情况下,与其让投资者在市场中“挑选最喜欢的股票”,不如“采用杠铃投资模式,持有一些成长股,一些价值股,这样还更合理。”

无论美国经济走势如何,提前做好准备总没有什么坏处。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

There's one big question on the Street lately as the markets and economy falter: Will we or won't we head into another recession? For investors, understanding how to play either or any scenario could be a leg up.

"I think people's nerves are very frayed here at the minute, not even so much because of what's going on in the markets themselves, but what's going on in the world," Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, tells Fortune of the broader geopolitical uncertainty. "I think we're at a pretty fraught time."

According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, the odds of a recession in the next one to two years are "uncomfortably high," he tells Fortune. He places those odds at about one-in-three in the next 12 months, and says he's watching things like oil prices, consumer sentiment, and the yield curve for clues.

For investors, a recession could mean switching up the playbook to move into more defensive investments (read: high-flying growth and tech stocks likely aren't going to work for investors' portfolios like they did the past two years). So far this year, the S&P 500 is off nearly 14%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down almost 23%.

"If we see another acceleration in inflation, and we have another terrible geopolitical event ... that can spiral out of control and push inflation higher, well then that could put us on the brink of ... maybe a recession before the end of the year," says LPL Financial's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick.

With the trajectory of the U.S. economy still uncertain, Fortune asked several strategists how investors can be ready for a variety of economic scenarios.

Scenario 1: No recession in 2022

Some strategists are of the view that we don't see a recession—at least not near term.

For those like Morgan Stanley's Shalett, the reasons why can be boiled down pretty simply: "When it comes to the broader economy, and why we're not calling for recession, is to get a recession, you actually have to hit consumers. And right now, consumers are in phenomenal shape, the job market is still very strong," she says. "While income growth is not keeping up with inflation and there's angst there, the reality is that consumers are still spending."

Indeed, though consumer confidence has been sinking, spending is still strong at the moment, and jobs data is remaining steady, with unemployment hovering around 3.6%. Corporate America's balance sheets, meanwhile, are also "in very solid shape," says LPL's Detrick. (Like Shalett, he thinks the odds of a recession this year are "slim".)

In fact, more optimistic strategists like Detrick suggest that if inflation peaks soon, that could even provide a "major catalyst" for confidence and the stock market to have a second-half-of-the-year comeback.

In a better-case-scenario, Detrick suggests buying up some "beaten up" darlings—namely, tech and growth names, and communication services. Those stocks have "really become cheap relative to where they were" considering the big tech rout we've seen so far in 2022. Detrick also points out that small caps broadly are "historically" cheap at the moment, and if we avoid a recession and the economy "surprises to the upside," small caps could pose a compelling option for investors.

"Cyclical stocks do well in times of market booms," adds Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Schwab Center for Financial Research. And Shalett notes that if we do get a "re-acceleration scenario, you're going to want to load the boat back up with cyclicals" and own things like energy, banks, housing, retail, consumer discretionary, and "things of that nature."

Scenario 2: A (standard) recession

When it comes to a recession, according to Schwab's Frederick, "it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when we get it, how deep will the recession be, and how long will it last?" (His take: It will likely be "relatively mild" and won't last very long.)

Experts point out that there are a couple concerning signs, including big retailers like Target and Walmart's most recent earnings, which warned of excess inventory—something that contributed to the negative GDP number in the first quarter, according to Shalett. Plenty of eyes on the Street are also watching the Federal Reserve's policies to battle inflation, and whether or not they might usher the economy into a recession. And as Moody's Zandi postulates, there's a close to 50/50 chance of a recession within the next two years.

If you don't like those odds, and think we may be headed for darker days, strategists suggest a few plays for investors.

Those like Shalett, Detrick, and Frederick note a variety of defensive picks like utilities, staples, health care, large caps, non-cyclical tech stocks, insurance, and telecoms could do well in a recession environment. However, Frederick cautions that "we're not talking about selling all your tech stocks and buying all utilities and staples—we're talking about, maybe you reduce your tech exposure by 5% or 10% and you add 5% or 10% to utilities or healthcare or staples," two areas he notes also often have sizable dividend yields, which could help provide a bit of extra cushion in harder times.

LPL's Detrick also points out that despite their poor performance so far this year, bonds could also do well in a recession scenario.

But the good news is none of the strategists that spoke with Fortune anticipate this recession would be especially nasty, but rather more garden variety.

Scenario 3: No recession, but weak growth or stagflation

Some call it a "soft landing," "stagflation," or perhaps a "mid-cycle slowdown," but investors may be facing a scenario where the economy avoids slipping into a recession, but growth is weaker or slowing.

For one, LPL's Detrick postulates that we're in a "mid-cycle slowdown." And in fact, economists like Zandi suggest that a cooling, especially in employment, from the rapid recovery of the past two years "is desirable—we need to slow down."

Morgan Stanley's Shalett believes we're in, and will likely remain in, a stagflationary environment—meaning one with high inflation and slowing economic growth. In that environment, she suggests investors "own everything"—which could mean being "style neutral, sector neutral, region neutral, factor neutral; you don't want to be momentum, you don't want to be quality. You just want to be neutral and you want to ride the wave up and down and have exposure to both sides of it, because it's too hard to call," she argues. In other words: diversify.

LPL's Detrick is of the same mind, arguing that in this scenario, instead of investors trying to "pick a favorite" in the market, "having more of a barbell approach with some growth and some value makes a lot of sense."

No matter where the U.S. economy is headed, it can't hurt to be prepared.

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