华尔街投资者如今正面临一个新世界。
俄乌战争突然爆发。美国对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧。在收益爆炸式增长的繁荣期结束之后,美国公司陷入混乱,有些公司现在正在努力重新站稳脚跟。但这只是冰山一角。
美国银行(Bank of America)认为,投资者需要充分意识到,全球正在发生一系列更深层次的转变。例如,到2030年,全球近四十多个城市的人口将至少达到1,000万人,这将加剧对气候的威胁。到2050年,65岁及以上人口将增加一倍以上。到2057年,经过多年的出生率下降,全球儿童人口预计将达到21亿人,七年后全球可能将达到“人口高峰期”。
由美国银行主题投资总监哈伊姆·以色列领导的分析师团队在6月8日发表的一份报告中写道:“未来几年,世界将发生翻天覆地的变化。不只是全球人口的增长(或减少),还有人口结构的快速变化。”
这充分代表了该华尔街银行所说的“变革的世界”,最终必定会形成“新的世界秩序”,从城市到政治制度当然还有公司都将受到影响。那么,投资者该如何应对?美国银行提出了一些建议,确切地说是推荐了50只股票。下文分析了美国银行的报告中提出的几个热门主题板块以及分析师们看好的股票:
与人类社会年龄结构变化有关的股票
美国银行表示,过去半个世纪,全世界经历了飞速增长期,带动全球人口数量增加了一倍以上。而且人口增长并未结束。
据联合国预测,到2100年,全球人口很有可能达到约110亿人的最高峰。目前全球人口约为79亿人。然而,华盛顿大学(University of Washington)健康测量与评价中心(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)2020年开展的一项研究发现,事实上,全球人口最早可能在2064年达到最高峰97.2亿人。从今天到2064年恰好与1980年至今的时间相同。
预期人口减少最主要的原因是全球出生率大幅下降。据联合国统计,人口出生率从1990年每名女性活产新生儿3.2人,2019年下降到2.5人,到2100年可能下降到1.9人左右。因此,美国银行预测与生育健康福利、辅助生殖服务、体外受精技术和计划生育有关的公司,将会迎来繁荣的业务发展。以Progyny为例。美国银行指出,这家位于纽约的公司向“大型自我保险雇主”提供生育福利,并且这是美国同类公司中唯一一家上市公司。美国银行还重点提到了在中美两国提供体外受精等辅助生殖服务的锦欣生殖(Jinxin Fertility)以及出售婴儿监测技术的Owlet。例如,家长可以在晚上为婴儿穿上Owlet开发的袜子,用于监测心率。
然而,问题不止是儿童数量不足。还有另外一个问题是,随着医疗保健技术的进步、生活习惯的改善和管理式医疗护理的出现,人类寿命延长。美国银行指出,到2050年,人均预期寿命将从72.3岁延长到76.8岁。因此,美国银行的分析师认为,AMN Healthcare等医疗人员配置公司的需求将大幅增长,尤其是在整个行业面临劳动力不足的情况下。美国银行还提到,瑞银集团(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等传统跨国银行可能正在准备拿出更大精力服务所谓的银发族,因为预计老年客户对于财富管理服务将有更大需求。其他受益者还包括保险公司,如亚洲最大的人寿保险公司之一友邦保险(AIA)以及保诚集团(Prudential plc)等。美国银行表示,鉴于亚洲和非洲中产阶级的兴起和人口老龄化,保诚保险有机会在这两个市场扩大业务。
与城市人口增长有关的股票
过去15年,人类社会一直在围绕城市持续融合,虽然新冠疫情为人们远程办公带来了新的可能性,但未来预计人们依旧会向城市聚集。
美国银行在报告中指出,目前全球约55%的人口在城市生活。到2050年,预计全球约三分之二人口将生活在城市,其中新增城市人口很大一部分来自亚洲和非洲。为了应对不断涌入的新居民,未来十年城市必定要增加基础设施支出。普华永道(PwC)估计,未来十年全球基础设施支出将达到78万亿美元。
美国银行建议特别关注的一只股票是Helios Towers。该公司在非洲和中东拥有并运营通信信号塔等基础设施。美国银行提到了越南最大的住宅开发商Vinhomes Joint Stock Company。城市居民收入水平的提高,可能“在已经逐渐供应不足的越南房地产市场,推高对正规住房的需求”,该公司可能从中受益。美国银行表示,在消费者领域,城市人口的增加还可能促进送餐公司的业务增长,例如印度的Zomato和东南亚的Grab等。
美国银行提到了美国的多家庭房地产投资信托公司UDR。该公司在纽约、华盛顿特区和旧金山等市场经营公寓。美国银行的分析师还认为,服务新一代郊区居民的公司将迎来更多商机,例如家得宝(Home Depot)等,因为“人口从城市搬到郊区和农村市场的长期趋势被疫情加速。”
与C世代有关的股票
想象一下这样一代人:在他们的记忆中没有严重的疫情,不需要开车,不再使用现金。如果美国银行的预测成真,这就是目前最年轻的C世代的未来。
美国银行表示,2016年以后出生的C世代已经超过7亿人,到2025年将达到20亿。虽然C世代的规模可能小于我们经常说的Z世代,但分析师们表示,C世代将成为“在网络连接无处不在的时代与科技和谐共存”的第一代人。这意味着什么?美国银行的分析师写道:“他们将是‘无现金、无商店购物、无人驾驶、无大学’的一代人,因为随着新的颠覆性技术的诞生,他们改变了对金钱、工作、出行和教育的态度。”
分析师们表示:“C世代也将是‘骗过死神’的第一代人,他们将实现永生,并生活在净零排放的世界。”
我们不知道现在的某个人是否将获得永生。但对于投资者,美国银行确实已经看到一些公司有望成为未来社会的支柱。例如大力开发沉浸式数字世界元宇宙的视频游戏公司Roblox,希望成为下一代互联网门户的美国领先的加密货币交易平台Coinbase,甚至还有已有98年历史的华特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)。美国银行的分析师认为,迪士尼有潜力成为“元宇宙的一个关键利益相关者,无论未来这个新兴领域将如何演变。”
分析师们写道:“我们认为‘内容为王’,内容/IP将成为吸引消费者接受这些新虚拟空间的关键卖点。[迪士尼]将占据优势,可以利用其大量标志性人物形象和IP,帮助创建这些新虚拟世界。”
以下是美国银行认为将从全球人口结构转变中受益的50只股票:
• 德科集团(Adecco)
• Aedifica
• 友邦保险控股有限公司(AIA Group Limited)
• Airtel Africa Limited
• AMN Healthcare
• Amundi SA
• ASGN Inc.
• 蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)
• 必得维斯特集团(Bidvest Group)
• Block Inc.
• Cofinimmo
• Coinbase Global Inc.
• 美国霍顿公司(D.R. Horton Inc.)
• Fiverr
• GetNinjas
• Grab Holdings
• Helios Towers PLC
• 豪洛捷公司(Hologic Inc.)
• IDP教育集团(IDP Education)
• 锦欣生殖医疗集团有限公司
• 摩根大通集团
• LEG Immobilien
• 路易威登(LVMH)
• 马山集团(Masan Group)
• Mr Price
• MTN集团(MTN Group)
• Nihon M&A Center
• 欧加隆(Organon)
• Owlet Inc.
• Progyny Inc.
• 保诚集团
• 信实工业(Reliance Industries)
• 历峰集团(Richemont)
• Roblox Corp.
• 冬海集团(Sea Limited)
• Shoprite
• SMS
• Teleperformance SE
• 家得宝
• Torrid Inc.
• Trupanion
• 瑞银集团
• UDR Inc.
• Upwork Inc.
• 维多利亚的秘密(Victoria's Secret & Co.)
• Vinhomes Joint Stock Company
• Vonovia SE
• 华特迪士尼公司
• Welltower
• Zomato Limited(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
华尔街投资者如今正面临一个新世界。
俄乌战争突然爆发。美国对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧。在收益爆炸式增长的繁荣期结束之后,美国公司陷入混乱,有些公司现在正在努力重新站稳脚跟。但这只是冰山一角。
美国银行(Bank of America)认为,投资者需要充分意识到,全球正在发生一系列更深层次的转变。例如,到2030年,全球近四十多个城市的人口将至少达到1,000万人,这将加剧对气候的威胁。到2050年,65岁及以上人口将增加一倍以上。到2057年,经过多年的出生率下降,全球儿童人口预计将达到21亿人,七年后全球可能将达到“人口高峰期”。
由美国银行主题投资总监哈伊姆·以色列领导的分析师团队在6月8日发表的一份报告中写道:“未来几年,世界将发生翻天覆地的变化。不只是全球人口的增长(或减少),还有人口结构的快速变化。”
这充分代表了该华尔街银行所说的“变革的世界”,最终必定会形成“新的世界秩序”,从城市到政治制度当然还有公司都将受到影响。那么,投资者该如何应对?美国银行提出了一些建议,确切地说是推荐了50只股票。下文分析了美国银行的报告中提出的几个热门主题板块以及分析师们看好的股票:
与人类社会年龄结构变化有关的股票
美国银行表示,过去半个世纪,全世界经历了飞速增长期,带动全球人口数量增加了一倍以上。而且人口增长并未结束。
据联合国预测,到2100年,全球人口很有可能达到约110亿人的最高峰。目前全球人口约为79亿人。然而,华盛顿大学(University of Washington)健康测量与评价中心(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)2020年开展的一项研究发现,事实上,全球人口最早可能在2064年达到最高峰97.2亿人。从今天到2064年恰好与1980年至今的时间相同。
预期人口减少最主要的原因是全球出生率大幅下降。据联合国统计,人口出生率从1990年每名女性活产新生儿3.2人,2019年下降到2.5人,到2100年可能下降到1.9人左右。因此,美国银行预测与生育健康福利、辅助生殖服务、体外受精技术和计划生育有关的公司,将会迎来繁荣的业务发展。以Progyny为例。美国银行指出,这家位于纽约的公司向“大型自我保险雇主”提供生育福利,并且这是美国同类公司中唯一一家上市公司。美国银行还重点提到了在中美两国提供体外受精等辅助生殖服务的锦欣生殖(Jinxin Fertility)以及出售婴儿监测技术的Owlet。例如,家长可以在晚上为婴儿穿上Owlet开发的袜子,用于监测心率。
然而,问题不止是儿童数量不足。还有另外一个问题是,随着医疗保健技术的进步、生活习惯的改善和管理式医疗护理的出现,人类寿命延长。美国银行指出,到2050年,人均预期寿命将从72.3岁延长到76.8岁。因此,美国银行的分析师认为,AMN Healthcare等医疗人员配置公司的需求将大幅增长,尤其是在整个行业面临劳动力不足的情况下。美国银行还提到,瑞银集团(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等传统跨国银行可能正在准备拿出更大精力服务所谓的银发族,因为预计老年客户对于财富管理服务将有更大需求。其他受益者还包括保险公司,如亚洲最大的人寿保险公司之一友邦保险(AIA)以及保诚集团(Prudential plc)等。美国银行表示,鉴于亚洲和非洲中产阶级的兴起和人口老龄化,保诚保险有机会在这两个市场扩大业务。
与城市人口增长有关的股票
过去15年,人类社会一直在围绕城市持续融合,虽然新冠疫情为人们远程办公带来了新的可能性,但未来预计人们依旧会向城市聚集。
美国银行在报告中指出,目前全球约55%的人口在城市生活。到2050年,预计全球约三分之二人口将生活在城市,其中新增城市人口很大一部分来自亚洲和非洲。为了应对不断涌入的新居民,未来十年城市必定要增加基础设施支出。普华永道(PwC)估计,未来十年全球基础设施支出将达到78万亿美元。
美国银行建议特别关注的一只股票是Helios Towers。该公司在非洲和中东拥有并运营通信信号塔等基础设施。美国银行提到了越南最大的住宅开发商Vinhomes Joint Stock Company。城市居民收入水平的提高,可能“在已经逐渐供应不足的越南房地产市场,推高对正规住房的需求”,该公司可能从中受益。美国银行表示,在消费者领域,城市人口的增加还可能促进送餐公司的业务增长,例如印度的Zomato和东南亚的Grab等。
美国银行提到了美国的多家庭房地产投资信托公司UDR。该公司在纽约、华盛顿特区和旧金山等市场经营公寓。美国银行的分析师还认为,服务新一代郊区居民的公司将迎来更多商机,例如家得宝(Home Depot)等,因为“人口从城市搬到郊区和农村市场的长期趋势被疫情加速。”
与C世代有关的股票
想象一下这样一代人:在他们的记忆中没有严重的疫情,不需要开车,不再使用现金。如果美国银行的预测成真,这就是目前最年轻的C世代的未来。
美国银行表示,2016年以后出生的C世代已经超过7亿人,到2025年将达到20亿。虽然C世代的规模可能小于我们经常说的Z世代,但分析师们表示,C世代将成为“在网络连接无处不在的时代与科技和谐共存”的第一代人。这意味着什么?美国银行的分析师写道:“他们将是‘无现金、无商店购物、无人驾驶、无大学’的一代人,因为随着新的颠覆性技术的诞生,他们改变了对金钱、工作、出行和教育的态度。”
分析师们表示:“C世代也将是‘骗过死神’的第一代人,他们将实现永生,并生活在净零排放的世界。”
我们不知道现在的某个人是否将获得永生。但对于投资者,美国银行确实已经看到一些公司有望成为未来社会的支柱。例如大力开发沉浸式数字世界元宇宙的视频游戏公司Roblox,希望成为下一代互联网门户的美国领先的加密货币交易平台Coinbase,甚至还有已有98年历史的华特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)。美国银行的分析师认为,迪士尼有潜力成为“元宇宙的一个关键利益相关者,无论未来这个新兴领域将如何演变。”
分析师们写道:“我们认为‘内容为王’,内容/IP将成为吸引消费者接受这些新虚拟空间的关键卖点。[迪士尼]将占据优势,可以利用其大量标志性人物形象和IP,帮助创建这些新虚拟世界。”
以下是美国银行认为将从全球人口结构转变中受益的50只股票:
• 德科集团(Adecco)
• Aedifica
• 友邦保险控股有限公司(AIA Group Limited)
• Airtel Africa Limited
• AMN Healthcare
• Amundi SA
• ASGN Inc.
• 蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)
• 必得维斯特集团(Bidvest Group)
• Block Inc.
• Cofinimmo
• Coinbase Global Inc.
• 美国霍顿公司(D.R. Horton Inc.)
• Fiverr
• GetNinjas
• Grab Holdings
• Helios Towers PLC
• 豪洛捷公司(Hologic Inc.)
• IDP教育集团(IDP Education)
• 锦欣生殖医疗集团有限公司
• 摩根大通集团
• LEG Immobilien
• 路易威登(LVMH)
• 马山集团(Masan Group)
• Mr Price
• MTN集团(MTN Group)
• Nihon M&A Center
• 欧加隆(Organon)
• Owlet Inc.
• Progyny Inc.
• 保诚集团
• 信实工业(Reliance Industries)
• 历峰集团(Richemont)
• Roblox Corp.
• 冬海集团(Sea Limited)
• Shoprite
• SMS
• Teleperformance SE
• 家得宝
• Torrid Inc.
• Trupanion
• 瑞银集团
• UDR Inc.
• Upwork Inc.
• 维多利亚的秘密(Victoria's Secret & Co.)
• Vinhomes Joint Stock Company
• Vonovia SE
• 华特迪士尼公司
• Welltower
• Zomato Limited(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Investors across Wall Street are facing a new world today.
War has erupted in Ukraine. Fears of a recession are mounting in the U.S. And corporate America has been sent reeling, with companies now trying to find their footing once again after a gangbusters period where many saw earnings explode. But that’s only part of it.
For Bank of America, there is a series of far deeper shifts taking place globally that investors need to wise up to. By 2030, for one, nearly four dozen cities around the globe will have at least 10 million inhabitants, escalating the threat to the climate. By 2050, there will more than double the count of people who are at least 65 years old. And by 2057, following years of falling fertility rates, the number of children globally is expected to top out at 2.1 billion before the world potentially reaches “peak people” seven years later.
“The world won’t look anything like it does today in years to come,” a group of Bank of America analysts led by head of thematic investing, Haim Israel, wrote in a June 8 report. “And it’s not all about global population growth (or decline)—it’s also about the rapidly changing composition of that population.”
It is all representative of what the Wall Street bank calls a “transforming world,” one that is bound to cause a "new world order" that stands to impact just about everything from cities to political regimes to, of course, companies. So, what’s an investor to do? Well, Bank of America has some ideas—50 to be exact. Here is a breakdown of some of the top themes from Bank of America's note and the stocks that analysts see prospering, as a result:
The stocks for society's coming age shake-up
Over the last half century, the world has been in a period of escalating growth that has led the number of people globally to more than double, according to Bank of America. And the population's expansion is not yet done.
The United Nations has projected that the count of people very may well reach a peak of almost 11 billion by 2100, compared to about 7.9 billion today. However, a 2020 study conducted by researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that, in fact, the global population may reach its highest level of 9.72 billion as soon as 2064—the same amount of years from now into the future as 1980 is in the past.
Perhaps the largest driver of the expected decline is a dramatic falloff in the global fertility rate, which, according to the UN, has plunged from 3.2 live births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019 and, by 2100, should sit at around 1.9. Bank of America, as a result, predicts a boom in business for companies dealing in fertility health benefits, assisted reproductive services, in-vitro fertilization technology, and family planning. Take Progyny, for instance. The New York-based company provides fertility benefits to “large, self-insured employers,” Bank of America notes, adding that it is the only publicly traded company of its type in the U.S. Bank of America also highlighted Jinxin Fertility, the leading provider of assisted reproductive services like in-vitro fertilization in China and the U.S., as well as Owlet, a company that sells infant-monitoring technology like a sock that parents can wrap around their child’s foot at night to monitor their heart rates.
It’s not just that the world isn’t having enough children, though. There’s also the fact that, thanks to advances in healthcare, better lifestyle habits, and managed care, society is getting older. The average life expectancy is set to rise from 72.3 years to 76.8 years by 2050, according to Bank of America. So, in the eyes of Bank of America analysts, healthcare staffing companies such as AMN Healthcare are bound to see a surge of demand, especially at a time when the industry as a whole is suffering from a labor shortage. Bank of America also highlights traditional global banks like UBS and JPMorgan Chase as potentially being primed for more room to run with the so-called greying population, considering the expected need for more wealth management services from older clients. Other benefactors include insurers like AIA, one of the largest life insurers in Asia, and Prudential plc, which Bank of America notes is sitting on an opportunity to expand its sprawl all across Asia and Africa considering the emerging middle-class and older populations in both markets.
The stocks for city watchers
The world has been coalescing around cities for 15 years now, and, while COVID-19 has opened up new possibilities for people to work from anywhere, people are still expected to pile within city limits for the years to come.
About 55% of the global population today lives in a city, Bank of America noted in the report. By 2050, about two-thirds of the global population is expected to be living in cities—with the lion's share of that growth coming from Asia and Africa. For cities to be able to handle the influx of new residents, there is bound to be a massive infrastructure spend in the next decade. PwC estimates that globally it could be as much as $78 trillion.
One stock that Bank of America called attention to in particular was Helios Towers, which owns and operates telecommunication towers and other infrastructure across Africa and the Middle East. In Vietnam, Bank of America says Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, the country's largest residential developer, may also benefit from the rising affluence among citizens, which could drive "an increasing need for formal housing, in a market that is chronically under-supplied." On the consumer-facing side, the push into urban areas, Bank of America wrote, may also be a catalyst for more business for food delivery companies like Zomato of India and Grab in southeast Asia.
In the states, Bank of America called out UDR, a multifamily real estate investment trust, that operates apartments in markets like New York, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco. The bank is also seeing more opportunities for companies that are catering to newly minted suburbanites, such as Home Depot, given the "long-term trend of migration out of urban areas and into suburban and rural markets [that] has been accelerated by the pandemic," the bank's analysts wrote.
The stocks for Gen C
Imagine not remembering the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic, or driving, or using cash. Well, if Bank of America's right, that's the future awaiting the youngest in society today: Gen C.
Born after 2016, Gen C is already 700 million strong and bound to reach 2 billion by 2025, according to the bank. And while that will make it ultimately smaller in size than the oft-discussed Gen Z, the analysts wrote that Gen C is positioned to become the first "to live in harmony with technology amid ubiquitous connectivity." What does that mean? "A 'cashless, shopless, driverless, potentially collegeless' generation, as they change attitudes to money, work, mobility and education in the advent of new disruptive technologies," the Bank of America analysts wrote.
"Also, Gen C could be the first generation to 'cheat death' and achieve immortality and live in a net zero world," they added.
Whether there is a human alive today who will never die, who knows. But, for investors, Bank of America does see some clarity already emerging around companies that are positioning themselves to become pillars in society for future generations. Among them: Roblox, the video gaming company that is making an aggressive push into the immersive digital known as the metaverse, Coinbase, the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. that is trying to become a gateway to the next iteration of the Internet, and even the 98-year-old Walt Disney Co., which Bank of America analysts wrote has the potential to become "a key stakeholder in the metaverse, however this new emerging area evolves over time."
"It is our view that 'content is king' and content/IP will serve as the key attraction in consumer adoption of these new virtual spaces," the analysts wrote. "[Disney] will likely have an advantaged positioning to capitalize on this with their roster of iconic franchises and IP to help create these new virtual worlds."
Here’s the full list of the 50 stocks that Bank of America sees benefitting from the globe’s ever-shifting demographics:
• Adecco
• Aedifica
• AIA Group Limited
• Airtel Africa Limited
• AMN Healthcare
• Amundi SA
• ASGN Inc.
• Bank of Montreal
• Bidvest Group
• Block Inc.
• Cofinimmo
• Coinbase Global Inc.
• D.R. Horton Inc.
• Fiverr
• GetNinjas
• Grab Holdings
• Helios Towers PLC
• Hologic Inc.
• IDP Education
• Jinxin Fertility Group Limited
• JPMorgan Chase & Co.
• LEG Immobilien
• LVMH
• Masan Group
• Mr Price
• MTN Group
• Nihon M&A Center
• Organon
• Owlet Inc.
• Progyny Inc.
• Prudential PLC
• Reliance Industries
• Richemont
• Roblox Corp.
• Sea Limited
• Shoprite
• SMS
• Teleperformance SE
• The Home Depot Inc.
• Torrid Inc.
• Trupanion
• UBS
• UDR Inc.
• Upwork Inc.
• Victoria's Secret & Co.
• Vinhomes Joint Stock Company
• Vonovia SE
• Walt Disney Co.
• Welltower
• Zomato Limited