美国目前的经济形势,类似于“选择自己的冒险历程”的状况。
美国通胀率居高不下,但工资同样上涨。2022年股价下跌,但自2020年以来依旧大幅上涨。很多人发出了经济衰退的警告,但消费者依旧在大肆消费。尽管有各种积极的迹象,但似乎所有人都感觉经济一团糟,就连艺人卡迪·B也对此感到苦恼,与珍妮特·耶伦争论美国是否正在经历经济衰退。
目前的情况与2021年相去甚远。当时,在新冠疫情衰退之后,美国总统乔·拜登已经找到了实现经济复苏的密码。第三轮刺激计划使美国人的储蓄达到惊人的4.2万亿美元,刺激就业市场繁荣,使失业率降至史上最低水平。劳动者成为就业市场上的赢家,平均每个月有400万人跳槽,寻找薪酬更高的工作。经济刺激政策和工资上涨让美国人手中积攒了大量现金,于是人们开始疯狂消费,使美国进入了自1984年以来规模最大的一次经济扩张。
但每一朵玫瑰花上都有尖刺。2022年,由于供应短缺,美国人依旧在等待他们几个月前订购的沙发,而中国疫情和俄乌冲突让情况更加恶化。周五公布的消费物价指数清晰地显示出美国面临的最大问题是通胀,目前始终维持在40年最高水平。
尽管如此,在如此疯狂的经济形势下,依旧有人受益。你或许就是其中之一。
“乐观差距”
去年大部分时间,当经济繁荣遭遇许多不同寻常的趋势,例如大辞职浪潮,有一件奇怪的事情发生:尽管经济表现超出预期,但上个月的消费者信心却降至十年最低。与此同时,参与调查的美国人又表示他们过得不错。这就是所谓的“乐观差距”,而且几十年来,经济学家们因为这种情况伤透了脑筋。
随着通胀持续攀升,面对经济衰退的阴影,这种乐观心态可能会开始减弱。虽然耶伦在经济领域拥有数十年的经验,但卡迪·B的观点却很有道理。
通货膨胀抵消了因大辞职浪潮带来的工资上涨,而且许多美国人变得比以前更加贫穷。本周,通胀率加速提高到8.6%,这个问题似乎在短期内难以得到解决。美联储试图通过加息降低通胀,却引发了对于经济衰退的恐慌。
有两类美国人将跑赢高通胀和即将到来的经济衰退。
房东和跳槽者成为赢家
在当前的经济形势下高枕无忧的美国人,都是疫情期间出现的两大最繁荣市场的受益者,分别是:房地产和就业市场。
远程办公者从狭窄的城市公寓搬到宽敞的郊区,导致房价暴涨,按照Housingwire首席分析师罗根·莫塔沙米对《财富》杂志的说法,房价暴涨导致房地产市场“严重不健康”。
但这也使业主的财富大幅增加,可动用净值达到近10万亿美元。到去年年底,42%的业主被认为拥有高价值房产(抵押贷款占房屋价值的比例不超过一半),相比之下,2020年年底这一比例为30%。
而曾经在大辞职浪潮中辞职的工作者,如果足够幸运获得的加薪高于40年最高水平通胀,他们的收入同样将高于平均水平。美国经济咨商会(Conference Board)首席经济学家埃里克·伦德曾在1月底告诉《财富》杂志:“今年工资水平将继续大幅上涨。这个趋势不会结束。”
美国经济咨商会对近2,600名美国上班族的调查发现,接近三分之一在疫情期间开始从事新工作的受访者收入增加了30%以上。开市客(Costco)、亚马逊(Amazon)和塔吉特(Target)过去几年都提高了最低工资,连工薪阶层的工资也在上涨。
就业市场中有大量职位空缺特别是初级岗位,这尤其让Z世代受益匪浅。人手不足增加了对人才的需求,使应届毕业生在找工作时有更多选择和要求。
租房者、富人和穷人成为输家
其他美国人对过热的经济感觉并不好。比如,在96%的区域房地产市场估值过高[根据穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)为《财富》杂志统计的数据]的情况下试图买房的购房者。房屋中位数售价创历史新高,中产阶级拥有房产的梦想随之破灭。
相反,他们要努力支付史上最高的租金。在5月的CPI中,房租占40%。这尤其对纽约等大城市的居民来说是坏消息。现在,纽约市民的收入需要达到16万美元,才能在曼哈顿租得起一套普通一居室。
然而对通胀感受最强烈的是低收入家庭,因为低收入家庭生活必需品消费的占比更高。科尔士百货(Kohl’s)和沃尔玛(Walmart)都发现,顾客开始减少支出,选择更经济实惠的替代品,或者干脆不购买某些商品。
来自俄勒冈州波特兰的一位单亲妈妈坦雅·巴勒姆,为了抵消食品成本上涨的影响,决定取消流媒体订阅服务。巴勒姆在5月告诉《财富》杂志:“我们无论如何无法享受奢侈的生活。我们只是中产阶级。”然而通胀上涨迫使她和其他许多人更加严格地制定预算和改变消费行为。
任何社会阶层都无法避免通胀的影响,使美国人的财富较六个月前已经缩水。美联储的最新《美国金融账户报告》(Financial Accounts of the United States)显示,由于投资价值下降,从1月到3月,美国家庭财产净值减少了5,000亿美元。如果不是房屋业主的净值提高,家庭财富缩水的程度可能更加严重。
这对于所有人来说都不是好消息,尤其是富人,因为他们会承受更大的损失。随着加密货币和股市暴跌,截至5月,全球500大富豪损失了1万亿美元。有丰厚储蓄的退休人员,也在眼睁睁看着自己的养老金因为通货膨胀不断缩水,甚至有人考虑重新就业。
但通胀并没有阻止富人大肆消费。持续消费使通胀不断上涨,再加上美联储加息,可能让美国陷入经济衰退。到那时,即使当前经济下的赢家也将蒙受损失。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美国目前的经济形势,类似于“选择自己的冒险历程”的状况。
美国通胀率居高不下,但工资同样上涨。2022年股价下跌,但自2020年以来依旧大幅上涨。很多人发出了经济衰退的警告,但消费者依旧在大肆消费。尽管有各种积极的迹象,但似乎所有人都感觉经济一团糟,就连艺人卡迪·B也对此感到苦恼,与珍妮特·耶伦争论美国是否正在经历经济衰退。
目前的情况与2021年相去甚远。当时,在新冠疫情衰退之后,美国总统乔·拜登已经找到了实现经济复苏的密码。第三轮刺激计划使美国人的储蓄达到惊人的4.2万亿美元,刺激就业市场繁荣,使失业率降至史上最低水平。劳动者成为就业市场上的赢家,平均每个月有400万人跳槽,寻找薪酬更高的工作。经济刺激政策和工资上涨让美国人手中积攒了大量现金,于是人们开始疯狂消费,使美国进入了自1984年以来规模最大的一次经济扩张。
但每一朵玫瑰花上都有尖刺。2022年,由于供应短缺,美国人依旧在等待他们几个月前订购的沙发,而中国疫情和俄乌冲突让情况更加恶化。周五公布的消费物价指数清晰地显示出美国面临的最大问题是通胀,目前始终维持在40年最高水平。
尽管如此,在如此疯狂的经济形势下,依旧有人受益。你或许就是其中之一。
“乐观差距”
去年大部分时间,当经济繁荣遭遇许多不同寻常的趋势,例如大辞职浪潮,有一件奇怪的事情发生:尽管经济表现超出预期,但上个月的消费者信心却降至十年最低。与此同时,参与调查的美国人又表示他们过得不错。这就是所谓的“乐观差距”,而且几十年来,经济学家们因为这种情况伤透了脑筋。
随着通胀持续攀升,面对经济衰退的阴影,这种乐观心态可能会开始减弱。虽然耶伦在经济领域拥有数十年的经验,但卡迪·B的观点却很有道理。
通货膨胀抵消了因大辞职浪潮带来的工资上涨,而且许多美国人变得比以前更加贫穷。本周,通胀率加速提高到8.6%,这个问题似乎在短期内难以得到解决。美联储试图通过加息降低通胀,却引发了对于经济衰退的恐慌。
有两类美国人将跑赢高通胀和即将到来的经济衰退。
房东和跳槽者成为赢家
在当前的经济形势下高枕无忧的美国人,都是疫情期间出现的两大最繁荣市场的受益者,分别是:房地产和就业市场。
远程办公者从狭窄的城市公寓搬到宽敞的郊区,导致房价暴涨,按照Housingwire首席分析师罗根·莫塔沙米对《财富》杂志的说法,房价暴涨导致房地产市场“严重不健康”。
但这也使业主的财富大幅增加,可动用净值达到近10万亿美元。到去年年底,42%的业主被认为拥有高价值房产(抵押贷款占房屋价值的比例不超过一半),相比之下,2020年年底这一比例为30%。
而曾经在大辞职浪潮中辞职的工作者,如果足够幸运获得的加薪高于40年最高水平通胀,他们的收入同样将高于平均水平。美国经济咨商会(Conference Board)首席经济学家埃里克·伦德曾在1月底告诉《财富》杂志:“今年工资水平将继续大幅上涨。这个趋势不会结束。”
美国经济咨商会对近2,600名美国上班族的调查发现,接近三分之一在疫情期间开始从事新工作的受访者收入增加了30%以上。开市客(Costco)、亚马逊(Amazon)和塔吉特(Target)过去几年都提高了最低工资,连工薪阶层的工资也在上涨。
就业市场中有大量职位空缺特别是初级岗位,这尤其让Z世代受益匪浅。人手不足增加了对人才的需求,使应届毕业生在找工作时有更多选择和要求。
租房者、富人和穷人成为输家
其他美国人对过热的经济感觉并不好。比如,在96%的区域房地产市场估值过高[根据穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)为《财富》杂志统计的数据]的情况下试图买房的购房者。房屋中位数售价创历史新高,中产阶级拥有房产的梦想随之破灭。
相反,他们要努力支付史上最高的租金。在5月的CPI中,房租占40%。这尤其对纽约等大城市的居民来说是坏消息。现在,纽约市民的收入需要达到16万美元,才能在曼哈顿租得起一套普通一居室。
然而对通胀感受最强烈的是低收入家庭,因为低收入家庭生活必需品消费的占比更高。科尔士百货(Kohl’s)和沃尔玛(Walmart)都发现,顾客开始减少支出,选择更经济实惠的替代品,或者干脆不购买某些商品。
来自俄勒冈州波特兰的一位单亲妈妈坦雅·巴勒姆,为了抵消食品成本上涨的影响,决定取消流媒体订阅服务。巴勒姆在5月告诉《财富》杂志:“我们无论如何无法享受奢侈的生活。我们只是中产阶级。”然而通胀上涨迫使她和其他许多人更加严格地制定预算和改变消费行为。
任何社会阶层都无法避免通胀的影响,使美国人的财富较六个月前已经缩水。美联储的最新《美国金融账户报告》(Financial Accounts of the United States)显示,由于投资价值下降,从1月到3月,美国家庭财产净值减少了5,000亿美元。如果不是房屋业主的净值提高,家庭财富缩水的程度可能更加严重。
这对于所有人来说都不是好消息,尤其是富人,因为他们会承受更大的损失。随着加密货币和股市暴跌,截至5月,全球500大富豪损失了1万亿美元。有丰厚储蓄的退休人员,也在眼睁睁看着自己的养老金因为通货膨胀不断缩水,甚至有人考虑重新就业。
但通胀并没有阻止富人大肆消费。持续消费使通胀不断上涨,再加上美联储加息,可能让美国陷入经济衰退。到那时,即使当前经济下的赢家也将蒙受损失。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Today’s economy is a choose-your-own-adventure situation.
Inflation is high, but so are wages. Stocks are down in 2022, but still up substantially since 2020. Recession warnings abound, but consumers are still spending like mad. But despite all the positive signs, the economy kind of sucks for almost everyone—even Cardi B is feeling the pinch, arguing with Janet Yellen about whether a recession is under way.
It’s a far cry from 2021, when it seemed like President Joe Biden had cracked the economic comeback code following the coronavirus recession. A third round of stimulus checks left Americans sitting atop a whopping $4.2 trillion in savings and supercharged a jobs boom that led to record-low unemployment rates. Employees have been winning the labor market as an average of 4 million workers have quit their jobs every month for roles offering better pay. Flush with cash from stimulus and higher wages, Americans unleashed a major shopping spree, sending the U.S. into its biggest economic expansion since 1984.
But every rose has its thorn, and in 2022, people are still waiting for the couch they ordered months ago thanks to an ongoing supply shortage, which lockdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine war just exacerbated. As Friday’s CPI print makes clear, the biggest pain point is inflation, which keeps on setting fresh 40-year highs.
There are still some people who are winners in the crazy economy, though. Maybe you’re one of them.
The ‘optimism gap’
For much of the last year, as the booming economy coincided with several unusual trends like the Great Resignation, a strange thing happened: Despite the economy outperforming expectations, consumer sentiment dropped to a decade low last month. But in the same surveys, Americans report they are doing fine themselves. This is called the “optimism gap,” and economists have puzzled over it for decades.
As inflation continues to soar and a recession looms, that optimism will likely start to wane. Yellen might have decades of economic experience, but Cardi B definitely has a point.
Inflation is gobbling up some of those Great Resignation raises, and a lot of Americans are just poorer than they used to be. Given that inflation accelerated to 8.6% just this week, it’s a problem that doesn’t seem to be abating anytime soon. The Fed is trying to cool things down by raising rates, but that is prompting widespread fears of recession.
Two clear groups of Americans are beating the high prices and the coming downturn.
Homeowners and job hoppers are winning the economy
The Americans sitting pretty in the economy right now have benefited from the pandemic’s two biggest booms: housing and jobs.
Remote workers drove housing prices skyward after fleeing cramped city apartments for the spacious suburbs, fueling what Housingwire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami described to Fortune as a “savagely unhealthy” housing market.
But it’s made homeowners richer than ever, with nearly $10 trillion in equity available. By the end of last year, 42% of homeowners were considered equity rich (their mortgages were half or less than half of their home value), compared to the 30% of homeowners who were at the end of 2020.
Workers who joined the Great Resignation are also rolling in the dough if they were lucky enough to receive pay bumps greater than even 40-year-high inflation. “We're going to continue to see pretty strong wage growth this year,” Erik Lundh, principal economist at the Conference Board, told Fortune at the end of January. “It's not going away.”
A Conference Board survey of nearly 2,600 U.S. office workers found that nearly a third of those who began a new job during the pandemic are earning over 30% more. Even the working class is benefiting from higher wages, with Costco, Amazon, and Target raised minimum wages over the past year.
Gen Zers in particular are cashing in on a job market rife with record openings, especially for entry-level jobs. The labor shortage has spurred a demand for talent that has enabled new graduates to be more selective and demanding when choosing a job.
Renters, the rich, and the poor are losing the economy
For the rest of America, an overheated economy isn’t feeling so hot. Just ask the aspiring homeowners trying to buy a house during a time when 96% of regional housing markets are overvalued, per data Moody’s Analytics pulled for Fortune. With median home sale prices hitting record highs, the dream of middle class homeownership no longer exists.
They’re instead stuck shelling out for all-time high rents, which are responsible for 40% of May’s CPI read. It’s especially bad for the big city urbanites in places like New York City, who now need to earn $160,000 to afford median one-bedroom rent in Manhattan.
But it’s the lower-income households who are feeling the burn of inflation the most, because they spend a greater share of their total spending on necessities. Both Kohl’s and Walmart noted that customers were starting to reel in their spending by shifting to more affordable alternatives or avoiding some purchases altogether.
Tanya Barham, a single mother based in Portland, Ore., made the decision to cancel her streaming subscriptions in order to help offset rising food costs.“ We don't live an extravagant life by any means. We're solidly middle class,” Barham told Fortune in May. But rising inflation has forced her, and many others, to take a hard look at their budgets and make changes.
Inflation has left no social class untouched, making Americans worth less than they were six months ago. The Federal Reserve’s latest report on the Financial Accounts of the United States found that household net worth fell by $500 billion from January to March due to a drop in investment value. If it weren’t for the home-owning winners raking in equity, that wealth drop would have been even more drastic.
It’s not good news for anyone, especially the rich, who have more money to lose. As both crypto and stocks plunge, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1 trillion as of May. Even retirees with fat savings are watching inflation eat away at their nest eggs, prompting some to consider returning to work.
But inflation hasn’t prevented the rich from splurging. Consistent spending keeps driving up inflation and the Fed to push up interest rates, which could send us into a recession. And then, even the economic winners end up losing.