最新官方数据显示,一直被视为欧洲经济系统性风险的欧洲银行业,或许处于多年以来最为健康的状态。
在欧洲大陆每况愈下的金融行业内,有一个众所周知的术语——“厄运循环”。所谓“厄运循环”是指主权信用评级下降导致银行评级下降,反过来又导致对主权疑虑增加的恶性循环。在10年前的7月,这种“厄运循环”引发了欧元区债务危机,一度危及到欧元的生存。
欧洲央行(European Central Bank)于7月11日公布的数据显示,今年第一季度的不良贷款(逾期超过90天的贷款)比例大幅下降至1.95%。这是自2015年第二季度开始记录该数据以来的最低水平。
欧元区此前未执行协调监督,导致各国对银行业风险的解读存在差异,尽管整个欧元区使用同一种货币和相同的货币政策。
欧洲央行的发言人对《财富》杂志表示:“欧元区银行业进入了资本和流动性状况稳健的一年。总体来看,新冠疫情并未对银行的不良贷款产生影响,而且目前,俄乌冲突所带来的风险似乎也得到了控制。”
不良贷款率的改善得益于总贷款额小幅增加到190亿欧元(约合192亿美元),而存量不良贷款较2021年12月底小幅减少至3690亿欧元。
过多的不良债务可能对银行的损益表产生不利影响,通常会刺激银行不将这些债务确认为不良贷款。但这会限制银行向实体经济提供信贷的能力。
减少不良债务
欧洲银行业市场通常被认为是全球最有挑战性的市场:人们认为在包括德国在内的许多国家,当负利率侵蚀净利息收入时,有太多的贷款机构争夺储户存款。净利息收入是银行盈利能力的核心支柱。
某些银行的杠杆已经达到高位,只用少量股权支撑负债。银行的投资组合以国内主权债券为主,虽然这些债券被投资者认为存在风险,但却被监管机构认为是安全的。
自金融危机以来,欧洲银行业采取的应对措施包括,通过财务整顿减慢支持其偿付能力,减少因为大量使用国家支持的担保给银行资产负债表带来的风险敞口,例如意大利的GACS计划。
意大利最大的贷款机构联合圣保罗银行(Intesa Sanpaolo)(管理资产超过1万亿欧元)和中等规模的贷款机构BPER Banca在2021年12月聘请律所,帮助其将包含约31亿欧元不良贷款在内的资产组合证券化。
今年6月的晚些时候,伟凯律师事务所(White & Case)认为,银行业监管部门宣布胜利仍然为时尚早,该律所提到有早期迹象表明,随着政府开始逐渐减少在新冠疫情期间的财政支持,所谓“二级贷款”逾期将给银行带来潜在压力。此外,新冠疫情造成的长期影响依旧是一个未知数。
该律所在报告中写道:“新冠疫情的二次影响,比如供应链中断、通胀压力和利率上升,以及欧元的持续贬值和各国货币波动,持续冲击欧洲经济,可能导致一些脆弱的企业崩溃。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
最新官方数据显示,一直被视为欧洲经济系统性风险的欧洲银行业,或许处于多年以来最为健康的状态。
在欧洲大陆每况愈下的金融行业内,有一个众所周知的术语——“厄运循环”。所谓“厄运循环”是指主权信用评级下降导致银行评级下降,反过来又导致对主权疑虑增加的恶性循环。在10年前的7月,这种“厄运循环”引发了欧元区债务危机,一度危及到欧元的生存。
欧洲央行(European Central Bank)于7月11日公布的数据显示,今年第一季度的不良贷款(逾期超过90天的贷款)比例大幅下降至1.95%。这是自2015年第二季度开始记录该数据以来的最低水平。
欧元区此前未执行协调监督,导致各国对银行业风险的解读存在差异,尽管整个欧元区使用同一种货币和相同的货币政策。
欧洲央行的发言人对《财富》杂志表示:“欧元区银行业进入了资本和流动性状况稳健的一年。总体来看,新冠疫情并未对银行的不良贷款产生影响,而且目前,俄乌冲突所带来的风险似乎也得到了控制。”
不良贷款率的改善得益于总贷款额小幅增加到190亿欧元(约合192亿美元),而存量不良贷款较2021年12月底小幅减少至3690亿欧元。
过多的不良债务可能对银行的损益表产生不利影响,通常会刺激银行不将这些债务确认为不良贷款。但这会限制银行向实体经济提供信贷的能力。
减少不良债务
欧洲银行业市场通常被认为是全球最有挑战性的市场:人们认为在包括德国在内的许多国家,当负利率侵蚀净利息收入时,有太多的贷款机构争夺储户存款。净利息收入是银行盈利能力的核心支柱。
某些银行的杠杆已经达到高位,只用少量股权支撑负债。银行的投资组合以国内主权债券为主,虽然这些债券被投资者认为存在风险,但却被监管机构认为是安全的。
自金融危机以来,欧洲银行业采取的应对措施包括,通过财务整顿减慢支持其偿付能力,减少因为大量使用国家支持的担保给银行资产负债表带来的风险敞口,例如意大利的GACS计划。
意大利最大的贷款机构联合圣保罗银行(Intesa Sanpaolo)(管理资产超过1万亿欧元)和中等规模的贷款机构BPER Banca在2021年12月聘请律所,帮助其将包含约31亿欧元不良贷款在内的资产组合证券化。
今年6月的晚些时候,伟凯律师事务所(White & Case)认为,银行业监管部门宣布胜利仍然为时尚早,该律所提到有早期迹象表明,随着政府开始逐渐减少在新冠疫情期间的财政支持,所谓“二级贷款”逾期将给银行带来潜在压力。此外,新冠疫情造成的长期影响依旧是一个未知数。
该律所在报告中写道:“新冠疫情的二次影响,比如供应链中断、通胀压力和利率上升,以及欧元的持续贬值和各国货币波动,持续冲击欧洲经济,可能导致一些脆弱的企业崩溃。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Europe’s banks, long seen as a systemic risk for the economy, maybe at their healthiest in years, according to the latest official figures.
The continent's ailing financial sector famously spawned the term “doom loop”, a vicious circle when falling credit ratings for sovereigns lead to downgrades for banks, which further feed fresh doubts on the sovereign. This helped spark the euro zone debt crisis that presented an existential risk to the euro ten years ago this month.
According to data from the European Central Bank on July 11, the share of non-performing loans (NPLs)—defined as over 90 days in arrears—dropped to just 1.95% in the first quarter of this year. It marks the lowest level since records began in the second quarter of 2015.
Previously there was no coordinated oversight, with national authorities interpreting banking risks differently despite the region sharing a common currency and monetary policy.
“The euro area banking sector has entered the year with strong capital and liquidity positions," a spokesperson for the ECB told Fortune. “The pandemic on average has not had an impact on banks’ non-performing loans, and for the time being it appears as if risks from the war in Ukraine appeared to be contained.”
The improvement in the NPL ratio was thanks to a slight increase in total loans to €19 billion ($19.2 billion), with the stock of NPLs themselves falling marginally versus the end of December to €369 billion.
Too much sour debt can result in painful charges to a bank’s income statement, often giving a bank incentive not to recognize them as non-performing. This however limits its ability to provide credit to the real economy.
Offloading bad debt
The European banking market is often considered the most challenging worldwide: Many countries like Germany are considered overbanked with too many lenders fighting over deposits at a time when negative rates eroded net interest income, a core pillar of profitability.
In some cases, they had been leveraged to the hilt with only a sliver of equity underpinning liabilities. Often their portfolios had been stuffed with domestic sovereign bonds considered risky by investors but officially deemed safe by regulators.
Since the financial crisis, the industry has responded by slowing bolstering their solvency through spring cleaning, offloading exposures that clogged up their balance sheets thanks to the liberal use of state-backed guarantees like Italy’s GACS scheme.
Intesa Sanpaolo, the country’s leading lender with assets of more than €1 trillion, and midsize peer BPER Banca hired firms in December to help securitize a portfolio comprising some €3.1 billion in sour loans.
Late last month, law firm White & Case argued it was far too soon for banking regulators to declare victory, however, citing early signs of potential stress in the form of so-called "Stage 2 loans" in arrears, as governments start to wind down their financial support from the pandemic. Moreover, the longer-term repercussions from the COVID pandemic are still unknown.
“Secondary effects of the crisis, such as supply chain disruption, inflationary pressure and rising interest rates, as well as the ongoing decline of the euro and various currency movements, continue to wash through Europe’s economies and may tip some vulnerable businesses over the edge,” it wrote.