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两位华尔街大亨谈通胀与经济衰退。一位认为不必恐慌,另一位却预测情况将越来越糟

SOPHIE MELLOR
2022-07-22

随着对经济衰退的恐慌令市场陷入动荡,两家华尔街大公司的负责人却给出了相互矛盾的信号。

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虽然对经济衰退的恐慌让市场受到冲击,但贝莱德CEO拉里·芬克却告诉人们不必恐慌。摄影:ROY ROCHLIN —— 盖蒂图片社

随着对经济衰退的恐慌令市场陷入动荡,两家华尔街大公司的负责人却给出了相互矛盾的信号。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席执行官苏德巍发出了危机警告,呼吁人们为更严重的通货膨胀和迫在眉睫的经济衰退做好准备。

苏德巍在接受CNN主播波比·哈罗采访时表示,人们应该开始为更高通胀环境做准备,并且“我们很有可能尚未达到通胀的最高峰。”

苏德巍表示,美国陷入经济衰退的几率很高,尤其是经过今年的三次大规模加息之后。他表示:“每次高通胀遇上经济紧缩,最终都会陷入某种形式的经济衰退。”

虽然苏德巍对经济状况发出警告,但贝莱德(BlackRock)CEO拉里·芬克的观点却截然相反。他认为目前扰动市场的经济困境对于长期投资者而言是“正常现象”。

芬克周三参加CNBC的吉姆·克拉默主持的《Mad Money》节目时表示:“有一位名人给我打电话,慌慌张张地说:‘我该怎么办,我得变现逃命,受不了了,受不了了。’我说:‘去度个假吧。’”

他告诉对方:“如果你无法承受压力,那就卖掉……但事实上,对这种情况我们并不陌生。通胀问题随着时间推移会得到解决。我们看到大宗商品价格已经从高位下跌。”

在被问到持续通胀、美联储可能的加息和俄乌冲突,是否威胁美国经济的健康时,芬克表示,这些问题都是“可以解决的”,而且即使在动荡时期需求依旧没有变化。

他说道:“美联储的工具是收紧货币供应,这样一来就会限制需求。所以会有经济衰退风险?确实如此。但即使我们陷入衰退,严重程度也相当轻微。美国的财务基础一直非常稳固。”

通货膨胀:根深蒂固还是转瞬即逝?

虽然芬克非常乐观,但在6月消费物价指数涨幅超过9.1%的消息传出后,市场因为恐慌出现波动,因为这意味着美联储可能在本月再次进行大规模加息。

芬克表示:“我们需要明白。我们的通胀水平确实居高不下。它很大程度上是政策造成的。”贝莱德CEO一直认为,出于民族主义的政策,例如迫使美国产业在国内生产商品和收紧对合法移民的限制等,使通胀进一步恶化。

但他认为,尽管物价上涨,基本需求依旧没有改变,而且供应情况正在好转。芬克表示,大宗商品价格从年初开始持续下跌,而一度陷入混乱的供应链,随着全球摆脱疫情的影响,也在不断好转。

铜、木材等大宗商品的价格在2021年暴涨,但从年初以来已经分别下跌了21%和41%。在俄乌冲突爆发后,原油价格一度暴涨至每桶140美元以上。但随着交易商担心经济衰退可能导致需求减少,原油价格也开始稳步下降。

然而,高盛的苏德巍却认为通胀很难回落。他表示,通货膨胀“绝不会是暂时现象”,可能会长期持续下去。苏德巍曾在周一召开的高盛第二季度营收电话会议上对投资者表示,通货膨胀是美国经济根深蒂固的问题,在下半年不太可能下降。

苏德巍在采访的最后提出了警告。他说道:“我无法预测未来六个月世界将会是什么样子。如果情况变得更加艰难,我们需要做好相应的调整。在进行这些预测的时候,我们总是会努力保持高度敏捷。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

随着对经济衰退的恐慌令市场陷入动荡,两家华尔街大公司的负责人却给出了相互矛盾的信号。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席执行官苏德巍发出了危机警告,呼吁人们为更严重的通货膨胀和迫在眉睫的经济衰退做好准备。

苏德巍在接受CNN主播波比·哈罗采访时表示,人们应该开始为更高通胀环境做准备,并且“我们很有可能尚未达到通胀的最高峰。”

苏德巍表示,美国陷入经济衰退的几率很高,尤其是经过今年的三次大规模加息之后。他表示:“每次高通胀遇上经济紧缩,最终都会陷入某种形式的经济衰退。”

虽然苏德巍对经济状况发出警告,但贝莱德(BlackRock)CEO拉里·芬克的观点却截然相反。他认为目前扰动市场的经济困境对于长期投资者而言是“正常现象”。

芬克周三参加CNBC的吉姆·克拉默主持的《Mad Money》节目时表示:“有一位名人给我打电话,慌慌张张地说:‘我该怎么办,我得变现逃命,受不了了,受不了了。’我说:‘去度个假吧。’”

他告诉对方:“如果你无法承受压力,那就卖掉……但事实上,对这种情况我们并不陌生。通胀问题随着时间推移会得到解决。我们看到大宗商品价格已经从高位下跌。”

在被问到持续通胀、美联储可能的加息和俄乌冲突,是否威胁美国经济的健康时,芬克表示,这些问题都是“可以解决的”,而且即使在动荡时期需求依旧没有变化。

他说道:“美联储的工具是收紧货币供应,这样一来就会限制需求。所以会有经济衰退风险?确实如此。但即使我们陷入衰退,严重程度也相当轻微。美国的财务基础一直非常稳固。”

通货膨胀:根深蒂固还是转瞬即逝?

虽然芬克非常乐观,但在6月消费物价指数涨幅超过9.1%的消息传出后,市场因为恐慌出现波动,因为这意味着美联储可能在本月再次进行大规模加息。

芬克表示:“我们需要明白。我们的通胀水平确实居高不下。它很大程度上是政策造成的。”贝莱德CEO一直认为,出于民族主义的政策,例如迫使美国产业在国内生产商品和收紧对合法移民的限制等,使通胀进一步恶化。

但他认为,尽管物价上涨,基本需求依旧没有改变,而且供应情况正在好转。芬克表示,大宗商品价格从年初开始持续下跌,而一度陷入混乱的供应链,随着全球摆脱疫情的影响,也在不断好转。

铜、木材等大宗商品的价格在2021年暴涨,但从年初以来已经分别下跌了21%和41%。在俄乌冲突爆发后,原油价格一度暴涨至每桶140美元以上。但随着交易商担心经济衰退可能导致需求减少,原油价格也开始稳步下降。

然而,高盛的苏德巍却认为通胀很难回落。他表示,通货膨胀“绝不会是暂时现象”,可能会长期持续下去。苏德巍曾在周一召开的高盛第二季度营收电话会议上对投资者表示,通货膨胀是美国经济根深蒂固的问题,在下半年不太可能下降。

苏德巍在采访的最后提出了警告。他说道:“我无法预测未来六个月世界将会是什么样子。如果情况变得更加艰难,我们需要做好相应的调整。在进行这些预测的时候,我们总是会努力保持高度敏捷。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

As recession fears stalk markets, the heads of two Wall Street behemoths are giving off contradictory signals.

Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon is warning of trouble ahead, urging people to prepare for worsening inflation and an approaching recession.

Solomon, speaking to CNN's Poppy Harlow, said people should begin preparing for an environment of higher inflation, adding, "there's a good chance that we haven't quite reached the peak yet."

The odds of a recession are high, especially after the three outsized rate hikes seen this year, Solomon said, noting, "anytime you have high inflation and go through an economic tightening, you wind up having some sort of an economic slowdown."

But as Solomon flashes warning signs about the state of the economy, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is taking a very different tack—calling the economic headwinds currently roiling markets “business as usual” for long-term investors.

Speaking on CNBC’s Jim Cramer's Mad Money on Wednesday, Fink said, “A really famous person called me up, panicking, ‘what should I do, I’ve got to get out, I can’t stand it, I can’t stand it.’ And I said, ‘go on vacation.’”

He recounted telling the person, “If you really can’t stand it, then sell it… But the reality is, we’ve seen this. Inflation is going to be fixed over time. We're already seeing commodity prices crashing from the highs," he said.

When asked if persistent inflation, a likely increase in the Fed rate, and the Ukraine war were a threat to the health of the U.S. economy, Fink indicated that these were all "fixable" and that demand has remained unchanged throughout the turmoil.

"The Federal Reserve's tool is to tighten, and through tightening they limit demand. So is there a risk of a recession? Sure there is. And even if we're in one, it's going to be quite mild. The financial foundation of America is as strong today as ever." he said.

Inflation: entrenched or transitory?

Despite Fink's rosy outlook, markets are moving with trepidation after the consumer price index shot up more than 9.1% for the month of June, signaling the Fed may be on track for another big interest hike this month.

"Let's be clear. We do have really elevated inflation. A lot of it is policy generated," Fink said. The BlackRock CEO has long argued that nationalistic policy-making, like the push to make U.S. industry produce goods domestically and the tightening of legal immigration, has made inflation worse.

But Fink argues that despite rising prices, underlying demand has stayed unchanged and supply is improving. Fink argues commodity prices have dropped since the start of the year and supply chains, which were snarled as the world exited the global pandemic, have improved.

Commodities like copper and lumber, which both soared in 2021, have dropped by 21% and 41% since the start of the year. Even crude oil, which shot above $140 a barrel after the war in Ukraine broke out, has been steadily dropping as traders fear a recession might bring on demand destruction.

However, Goldman Sach’s Solomon doesn't see inflation coming back down. Solomon said inflation is "definitely not transitory" and is here to stay. Solomon previously said on Goldman’s second-quarter earnings call with investors on Monday that inflation is entrenched in the economy and it may not come down in the second half of the year.

Solomon ended the interview with caution. "I can't tell you what the world's going to look like in six months. If the world looks more difficult, we'll adjust accordingly. We always try to be extremely nimble in how we think about these things," he said.

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