前美国财政部长拉里·萨默斯周日警告称,随着美联储持续通过加息抵御通胀,美国“有极高的概率”将在今年陷入经济衰退。
萨默斯早在2020年就极富远见地警告,美国将面临通货膨胀问题。他认为,美联储保证美国经济“软着陆”的目标,即在不引发经济衰退的情况下,经济增长放缓且通胀下降,“不太可能”实现。
萨默斯上周日对CNN表示:“我认为经济衰退的可能性非常高。我们以前面临这种情况时,之后几乎都发生了经济衰退。软着陆是希望战胜了经验,但我认为我们不太可能看到软着陆。”
萨默斯还表示,即使发生经济衰退,无论是哪种形式,他都不确定美联储能否控制通胀。6月,美国通胀率刷新40年新高。
他说道:“在发生经济衰退之后,我们能否完全控制通胀,目前还很难判断。美联储对控制通胀的承诺,令我很受鼓舞。但在其他时期,其他央行也曾有过这样的承诺,然而一旦经济下行,他们并没有采取足够的措施保证通胀大幅下降。”
萨默斯曾担任克林顿政府的财政部长和奥巴马总统的首席经济顾问。他还表示,由于通胀高居不下,他预测“滞胀的风险远高于”股票市场当前的预估。
过去几个月来,已有多位知名经济学家警告美国经济即将陷入低增长和高通胀的不良经济组合,其中包括剑桥皇后学院(Queens’ College, Cambridge)院长和安联集团(Allianz SE)首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安。
埃里安最近表示,通胀在6月已经达到了最高点,但他现在担心美国即将陷入经济衰退,而且与萨默斯一样,他也不认为美联储能够使通胀率回落到其2%的长期目标。
他在7月接受CNBC采访时称:“我认为至少对于未来三四个月而言,美国的通货膨胀已经达到了最高峰。问题是,在通胀下降的同时,经济很有可能陷入衰退,这不是好消息。”
在萨默斯发布评论之后,美国将在本周公布备受关注的第二季度国内生产总值数据,如果结果为负增长,将进一步加剧人们对经济衰退的担忧。
经济衰退的专业定义是指GDP连续两个季度萎缩,而美国第一季度的GDP不出意料地同比萎缩了1.6%。如果第二季度GDP像一些经济学家们预测的那样持续萎缩,美国就陷入了技术性衰退。
虽然彭博社调查的经济学家们预测美国第二季度GDP增长0.5%,但投资银行却并没有这样的信心。由伊森·哈里斯领导的美国银行(Bank of America)的经济学家在周五发布的一份研究报告中表示,他们预测的数据是美国GDP连续两个季度下降。
然而,定义经济衰退并不容易。许多经济学家和华尔街资深人士认为,只有美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research ,NBER)正式宣布之后,才可以认为美国陷入了真正的经济衰退。国家经济研究局对经济衰退的定义较为宽泛,即“总体经济活动减少,并且持续数月”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
前美国财政部长拉里·萨默斯周日警告称,随着美联储持续通过加息抵御通胀,美国“有极高的概率”将在今年陷入经济衰退。
萨默斯早在2020年就极富远见地警告,美国将面临通货膨胀问题。他认为,美联储保证美国经济“软着陆”的目标,即在不引发经济衰退的情况下,经济增长放缓且通胀下降,“不太可能”实现。
萨默斯上周日对CNN表示:“我认为经济衰退的可能性非常高。我们以前面临这种情况时,之后几乎都发生了经济衰退。软着陆是希望战胜了经验,但我认为我们不太可能看到软着陆。”
萨默斯还表示,即使发生经济衰退,无论是哪种形式,他都不确定美联储能否控制通胀。6月,美国通胀率刷新40年新高。
他说道:“在发生经济衰退之后,我们能否完全控制通胀,目前还很难判断。美联储对控制通胀的承诺,令我很受鼓舞。但在其他时期,其他央行也曾有过这样的承诺,然而一旦经济下行,他们并没有采取足够的措施保证通胀大幅下降。”
萨默斯曾担任克林顿政府的财政部长和奥巴马总统的首席经济顾问。他还表示,由于通胀高居不下,他预测“滞胀的风险远高于”股票市场当前的预估。
过去几个月来,已有多位知名经济学家警告美国经济即将陷入低增长和高通胀的不良经济组合,其中包括剑桥皇后学院(Queens’ College, Cambridge)院长和安联集团(Allianz SE)首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安。
埃里安最近表示,通胀在6月已经达到了最高点,但他现在担心美国即将陷入经济衰退,而且与萨默斯一样,他也不认为美联储能够使通胀率回落到其2%的长期目标。
他在7月接受CNBC采访时称:“我认为至少对于未来三四个月而言,美国的通货膨胀已经达到了最高峰。问题是,在通胀下降的同时,经济很有可能陷入衰退,这不是好消息。”
在萨默斯发布评论之后,美国将在本周公布备受关注的第二季度国内生产总值数据,如果结果为负增长,将进一步加剧人们对经济衰退的担忧。
经济衰退的专业定义是指GDP连续两个季度萎缩,而美国第一季度的GDP不出意料地同比萎缩了1.6%。如果第二季度GDP像一些经济学家们预测的那样持续萎缩,美国就陷入了技术性衰退。
虽然彭博社调查的经济学家们预测美国第二季度GDP增长0.5%,但投资银行却并没有这样的信心。由伊森·哈里斯领导的美国银行(Bank of America)的经济学家在周五发布的一份研究报告中表示,他们预测的数据是美国GDP连续两个季度下降。
然而,定义经济衰退并不容易。许多经济学家和华尔街资深人士认为,只有美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research ,NBER)正式宣布之后,才可以认为美国陷入了真正的经济衰退。国家经济研究局对经济衰退的定义较为宽泛,即“总体经济活动减少,并且持续数月”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned on Sunday that there is a “very high likelihood” that the U.S. will experience a recession this year, as the Federal Reserve continues to battle inflation with interest rate hikes.
Summers, who began presciently warning that inflation would become a problem in the U.S. back in 2020, argued the Federal Reserve’s goal of ensuring a “soft landing” for the American economy— where economic growth slows and inflation comes down, without sparking a recession—is a “very unlikely” outcome.
"I think there is a very high likelihood of recession. When we've been in this kind of situation before a recession has essentially always followed,” Summers told CNN on Sunday. “Soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience. I think we're very unlikely to see one."
Summers added that, even if a recession occurs, of whatever variety, he isn’t sure if the Fed will be able to control inflation, which hit a fresh four-decade high in June.
“Whether or not we put inflation fully back in the bottle with that recession is very hard to judge at this point,” he said. “I’ve been encouraged by the Fed’s commitment to do that. But other central banks at other times have professed to be committed, but have not done enough once the economy turned down to actually assure that inflation came down substantially.”
Summers, who was Treasury Secretary under President Clinton and a top economic advisor to President Obama, also noted that as a result of inflation’s staying power, he sees “a greater risk of stagflation” than the stock market is currently discounting.
For months now, a slew of top economists including Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, have warned that the U.S. economy is in the midst of the toxic economic combination of low growth and high inflation.
El-Erian argued recently that inflation hit its peak in June, but he now fears that a recession is on its way, and, like Summers, he isn’t convinced that the Fed can bring inflation back down to its 2% target in the long run.
"I think inflation has peaked in the U.S., at least for the next three to four months,” El-Erian told CNBC in July. "The problem is that inflation is going to come down with growth probably going into a recession, and that's not good news."
Summers’ comments come ahead of the closely watched release of second-quarter gross domestic product data this week, where a negative print could raise recession fears even higher.
One technical definition of a recession involves two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, and U.S. GDP unexpectedly shrank by 1.6% from a year ago in the first quarter. If the second quarter also shows a contraction—as some economists expect—it would put the U.S. in a technical recession.
And although economists polled by Bloomberg are expecting a 0.5% rise in GDP in the second quarter, investment banks aren’t so sure. Bank of America economists, led by Ethan Harris, said in a Friday research note that they are predicting that data to show a second consecutive quarter of declining GDP this week.
However, defining a recession isn’t always so easy. And many economists and Wall Street veterans argue a true recession won’t be here until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares it so. NBER defines a recession in a more general way as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."