即使美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)认为我们还没有陷入经济衰退,但由于美国国内生产总值连续两个季度出现下滑,华尔街的情绪仍然很焦虑。但一位投资组合经理认为,有几只股票能够安然度过当前和即将到来的动荡,并为投资者目前所承担的风险提供回报。
纽文首席信息官塞拉·马利克(Saira Malik)告诉《财富》杂志:“我们仍然认为存在很多不确定性,因此,你需要关注那些有弹性、能够在任何周期中幸存下来的优质公司。”
马利克指出了她关注的两个主要风险:盈利预期下降——她称之为“下一只掉落的靴子”(接下来必然会发生的事情)——以及美联储对抗通胀的力度有多大。尽管有很多未知数,但她认为下一阶段可能会进入“温和”衰退。(至于周四公布的美国国内生产总值负增长,马利克表示,她将“称之为技术性衰退,而不是教科书上定义的经济衰退”。(经济连续2个季度出现负增长通常即认定为经济衰退))
对于马利克来说,投资者应该以一种特殊的方式来玩这个游戏:“我想要实现的是,如果我承担了风险,我会因此而获得回报。”她说。“这让你关注那些规模更大、更有弹性的公司”,而不是那些更具投机性且根据估值看起来非常便宜的公司,“但也许它们的资产负债表并不那么强劲,或者它们无利可图。”
谈到那些有弹性的大型公司,马利克青睐微软公司(Microsoft)(MSFT,股价269 美元)。她表示:“我们总体上更青睐成长型股票,因为它们在经济放缓的情况下更有弹性,并且考虑到它们的估值已经下跌了那么多,它们更有吸引力。”她提到了今年的科技股暴跌。马利克认为,它们拥有“相当有弹性的商业业务,应该更具防御性。它们的云业务很强大,在宏观经济疲软时期,客户可能会开始整合供应商,在这种情况下,微软公司应该会占据更大的市场份额。”此外,像微软公司这样的科技股“对经济增长的依赖程度较低”。该公司本周的业绩略低于预期,但给出了更为乐观的前瞻指引。马利克指出,在消费需求疲软的环境下,微软公司的业务更加依赖企业,“即使削减经费,企业仍会在云等具有战略意义的领域进行投资。” 她还看好该股约1%的股息收益率,这在动荡时期应该能提供“投资组合保护”(有关目前值得购买的高股息股票,请点击此处阅读《财富》杂志最近发表的文章)。今年以来,该股已下跌约20%,未来12个月的市盈率约为26倍,这可能为潜在买家提供了一个机会。
与此同时,赛富时公司(Salesforce)(CRM,股价180 美元)也是一家类似的“有弹性的旗舰科技公司”,受益于向云领域的持续过渡。她还指出,与微软公司一样,考虑到其今年近30%的跌幅,赛富时公司“现在看起来非常有吸引力”,如果她能够“介入并以我们长久以来从未见过的水平购买微软公司或赛富时公司的股票,我对这些事情更感兴趣。”该股的远期市盈率约为 35倍,不算便宜,但较今年早些时候60倍的区间已经下跌了不少。
由于投资银行业务和资本市场收入大幅下滑,一些大型银行报告收益微薄,金融业正面临逆风;与此同时,交易带来的提振“可能无法持续”,马利克认为,在“消费信贷周期中,随着消费需求疲软,大型银行可能会面临风险。”这就是为什么她青睐地区性银行,例如在中西部和东南部开展业务的五三银行公司(Fifth Third Bancorp)(FITB,股价34美元)。马利克表示,它们没有那么多“资本市场风险”,还“涉足美国不断增长的领域”。她还指出,它们的“动量银行”业务,提供早期直接存款和免费支票账户等服务,“发展得非常好”。尽管该股今年以来表现不佳,自1月初以来下跌了近23%,但马利克认为,作为一家银行,它们也应该从更高的利率中受益。该股的股息收益率也高达3.6%。
马利克还青睐庞贝捷工业公司(PPG Industries)(PPG, 股价127美元),这是一家油漆和涂料供应商,她认为这是一家“高质量”的公司。她指出,尽管庞贝捷工业公司一直在提高价格,但“由于它们一直在应对通货膨胀,投入成本一直在上升”,庞贝捷工业公司“一直在困境中挣扎”。现在,随着通胀可能开始降温,她认为“其投入成本应该开始得到缓解,他们一直试图实现的两位数价格上涨将开始惠及公司”及其利润率。该股的远期市盈率约为17倍,迄今已下跌约26%,马利克认为“股价下跌反映了这一痛苦”。她认为,随着“市场复苏,其定价继续有利于损益,我们认为应该会有一个不错的反弹。”庞贝捷工业公司的股息收益率为2%——从某种程度上说,他们从1899年就开始派发股息了。
所有股票价格计算截至2022年7月27日。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
即使美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)认为我们还没有陷入经济衰退,但由于美国国内生产总值连续两个季度出现下滑,华尔街的情绪仍然很焦虑。但一位投资组合经理认为,有几只股票能够安然度过当前和即将到来的动荡,并为投资者目前所承担的风险提供回报。
纽文首席信息官塞拉·马利克(Saira Malik)告诉《财富》杂志:“我们仍然认为存在很多不确定性,因此,你需要关注那些有弹性、能够在任何周期中幸存下来的优质公司。”
马利克指出了她关注的两个主要风险:盈利预期下降——她称之为“下一只掉落的靴子”(接下来必然会发生的事情)——以及美联储对抗通胀的力度有多大。尽管有很多未知数,但她认为下一阶段可能会进入“温和”衰退。(至于周四公布的美国国内生产总值负增长,马利克表示,她将“称之为技术性衰退,而不是教科书上定义的经济衰退”。(经济连续2个季度出现负增长通常即认定为经济衰退))
对于马利克来说,投资者应该以一种特殊的方式来玩这个游戏:“我想要实现的是,如果我承担了风险,我会因此而获得回报。”她说。“这让你关注那些规模更大、更有弹性的公司”,而不是那些更具投机性且根据估值看起来非常便宜的公司,“但也许它们的资产负债表并不那么强劲,或者它们无利可图。”
谈到那些有弹性的大型公司,马利克青睐微软公司(Microsoft)(MSFT,股价269 美元)。她表示:“我们总体上更青睐成长型股票,因为它们在经济放缓的情况下更有弹性,并且考虑到它们的估值已经下跌了那么多,它们更有吸引力。”她提到了今年的科技股暴跌。马利克认为,它们拥有“相当有弹性的商业业务,应该更具防御性。它们的云业务很强大,在宏观经济疲软时期,客户可能会开始整合供应商,在这种情况下,微软公司应该会占据更大的市场份额。”此外,像微软公司这样的科技股“对经济增长的依赖程度较低”。该公司本周的业绩略低于预期,但给出了更为乐观的前瞻指引。马利克指出,在消费需求疲软的环境下,微软公司的业务更加依赖企业,“即使削减经费,企业仍会在云等具有战略意义的领域进行投资。” 她还看好该股约1%的股息收益率,这在动荡时期应该能提供“投资组合保护”(有关目前值得购买的高股息股票,请点击此处阅读《财富》杂志最近发表的文章)。今年以来,该股已下跌约20%,未来12个月的市盈率约为26倍,这可能为潜在买家提供了一个机会。
与此同时,赛富时公司(Salesforce)(CRM,股价180 美元)也是一家类似的“有弹性的旗舰科技公司”,受益于向云领域的持续过渡。她还指出,与微软公司一样,考虑到其今年近30%的跌幅,赛富时公司“现在看起来非常有吸引力”,如果她能够“介入并以我们长久以来从未见过的水平购买微软公司或赛富时公司的股票,我对这些事情更感兴趣。”该股的远期市盈率约为 35倍,不算便宜,但较今年早些时候60倍的区间已经下跌了不少。
由于投资银行业务和资本市场收入大幅下滑,一些大型银行报告收益微薄,金融业正面临逆风;与此同时,交易带来的提振“可能无法持续”,马利克认为,在“消费信贷周期中,随着消费需求疲软,大型银行可能会面临风险。”这就是为什么她青睐地区性银行,例如在中西部和东南部开展业务的五三银行公司(Fifth Third Bancorp)(FITB,股价34美元)。马利克表示,它们没有那么多“资本市场风险”,还“涉足美国不断增长的领域”。她还指出,它们的“动量银行”业务,提供早期直接存款和免费支票账户等服务,“发展得非常好”。尽管该股今年以来表现不佳,自1月初以来下跌了近23%,但马利克认为,作为一家银行,它们也应该从更高的利率中受益。该股的股息收益率也高达3.6%。
马利克还青睐庞贝捷工业公司(PPG Industries)(PPG, 股价127美元),这是一家油漆和涂料供应商,她认为这是一家“高质量”的公司。她指出,尽管庞贝捷工业公司一直在提高价格,但“由于它们一直在应对通货膨胀,投入成本一直在上升”,庞贝捷工业公司“一直在困境中挣扎”。现在,随着通胀可能开始降温,她认为“其投入成本应该开始得到缓解,他们一直试图实现的两位数价格上涨将开始惠及公司”及其利润率。该股的远期市盈率约为17倍,迄今已下跌约26%,马利克认为“股价下跌反映了这一痛苦”。她认为,随着“市场复苏,其定价继续有利于损益,我们认为应该会有一个不错的反弹。”庞贝捷工业公司的股息收益率为2%——从某种程度上说,他们从1899年就开始派发股息了。
所有股票价格计算截至2022年7月27日。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Even if Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell doesn’t think we’re in a recession yet, the mood on the Street is angsty as the economy just registered two consecutive quarters of GDP declines. But one portfolio manager believes a few stocks could ride out the current and coming turmoil—and reward investors for the risk they’re taking on those bets now.
“We still think that there’s a lot of uncertainty out there, so you need to focus on quality companies that are resilient companies that can survive any kind of cycle,” Saira Malik, the CIO of Nuveen, told Fortune.
Malik points to two key risks she’s eyeing: earnings estimates declining—what she calls the “next shoe to drop”—and how aggressive the Fed will end up being to combat inflation. And though there are a lot of unknowns, she believes the next phase is likely heading into a “mild” recession. (As for Thursday’s negative GDP number, Malik says she would “call it a technical recession rather than a textbook recession.”)
For Malik, there’s a particular way investors should play this: “I want areas where, if I’m taking the risk, I’m getting rewarded for it,” she says. “That puts you in these sort of larger, more resilient companies” versus those that are more speculative and look very cheap based on their valuation, “but maybe their balance sheet isn’t that strong or they’re unprofitable.”
When it comes to those large, resilient companies, Malik likes Microsoft (MSFT, $269). “We prefer growth stocks in general, because they’re more resilient in a slowing economy, and [are more attractive] given the valuations of how far they’ve fallen,” she said, noting the tech rout this year. Malik believes they have a “pretty resilient commercial business that should be more defensive. Their cloud business is strong, and in a period of weaker macro, customers could start to consolidate vendors and Microsoft should be a market share winner in that scenario,” she argues. Plus, tech stocks like Microsoft are “less reliant on the economy growing.” The company just missed earnings estimates this week, but gave more upbeat forward guidance. In an environment where the consumer is starting to show signs of weakness, Malik notes Microsoft’s business is more dependent on enterprises, which, “even if they cut back spending, they’re still going to spend on things that are strategic, like the cloud.” She also likes the stock’s roughly 1% dividend yield, which should provide “portfolio protection” in rockier times (for a look at the top dividend stocks to buy now, read Fortune‘s recent piece here). With the stock down roughly 20% so far this year, and trading around 26 times next 12 months earnings, it could provide an opening for a prospective buyer.
Salesforce (CRM, $180), meanwhile, is a similarly “resilient, flagship technology company” that’s benefitting from the continued transition to the cloud. She also points out that, like Microsoft, Salesforce is “looking very attractive right now” considering its nearly 30% selloff this year, and that if she can “step in and buy a Microsoft or Salesforce at levels we haven’t seen in a long time, I’m more interested in that.” Trading at a forward P/E of around 35, the stock isn’t cheap, but it’s down quite a bit from the 60s range earlier this year.
Elsewhere, the financial sector is facing headwinds as some big banks report meager earnings as investment banking and capital markets revenues have slumped; the boost from trading, meanwhile, “may not be sustainable,” and in the “consumer credit cycle, with a weaker consumer, [there] could be an overhang for larger banks,” suggests Malik. That’s why she’s favoring regional banks like Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, $34), which operates in the Midwest and Southeast. Malik says they don’t have as much of the “capital markets risk,” and points to their “diversified footprint in areas that are growing in the U.S.” She also notes their “Momentum Banking” business, which offers things like early direct deposits and free checking accounts, has been “growing very nicely for them.” Though the stock has been having a rough year so far, down nearly 23% since the start of January, Malik believes they should, as a bank, also benefit from higher rates. The stock also comes with a hefty 3.6% dividend yield.
Malik also likes PPG Industries (PPG, $127), a paint and coating supplier that she considers to be a “high quality” company. She notes PPG has “struggled quite a bit because of their input costs” which “have been going up [as] they’ve been dealing with inflation,” though they have been increasing prices, she notes. Now, as inflation likely cools from here, she believes “their input costs should start to be alleviated and these double digit price increases that they’ve been trying to put through will start to benefit the company” and their margins. Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 17, the stock has sold off about 26% so far this year, and Malik believes “much of the pain is priced into the stock.” She suggests that as “markets recover and their pricing continues to benefit the P&L, we think that should have a nice rebound.” PPG also boasts a 2% dividend yield—something they’ve been paying out, to some degree, since 1899.
All stock prices calculated as of Jul. 27, 2022.