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疫情过后可能出现大繁荣,但我们需要加强投资

JOHN DILULLO
2022-08-04

新冠疫情和其他危机刺激了新的思考,提高了生产率,促进了对能带来财富的技术的应用。

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对迫在眉睫的经济衰退的担忧,给医学和科技方面近期取得的突破的巨大潜力蒙上了阴影。摄影:SPENCER PLATT —— 盖蒂图片社

从许多方面来看,最近的日子可以说是非常悲惨。每一个新闻周期过后,世界似乎都在变得愈加黑暗。疫情让我们对亲人的安危提心吊胆。隔离政策残忍地将我们孤立起来。然后是供应短缺。

再加上2022年,金融市场陷入混乱,在过去六个月给投资者造成的损失,超过了过去50年投资者在任何六个月的损失规模。

在这种背景下,许多商人变得畏手畏脚,财务上更加保守,但我是一头愤怒的公牛。

新冠疫情并没有摧毁我们社会的基本结构,而是彰显了人类精神的韧性和我们的适应能力。我们在适应的过程中掌握了新的力量。我们挑战了每一种组织职能、每一种习惯和每一种神秘的社会习俗。我们对每一个研发项目、每一笔传统投资和每一个传统的业务流程进行合力改革。

我们在疫情期间变得更加高效。这一点无可争议:美国的经济规模超过了疫情之前的水平,尽管劳动者人数减少了近300万。

新冠疫情和其他危机刺激了新的思考,提高了生产率,并促使人们采用能创造财富的技术。

新冠肺炎并不是人类第一次经历的全球大流行病。在有文献记载的人类历史上,已经发生过13次全球疫情,每次都造成超过百万人死亡。其中一次与新冠疫情可怕地相似,那就是1918年的西班牙流感疫情。

最早有记录的西班牙流感病例在当年3月发现于美国,但很快法国、德国和英国也出现了病例。在六个月内,病毒席卷了整个世界。两年后,全球近三分之一人口被感染,约有5,000万人死亡。

所有疫情最终都会结束。病毒可能会变异,变得高度致命,结果杀死了宿主导致它们自己灭绝,也可能经过变异后具有更强传染性,导致人类最终产生了免疫力。

西班牙流感与新冠之间可怕的相似性,为我们预测未来十年提供了宝贵的机会。两种病毒的传染性几乎相同。R0值是代表一种病毒传播力的数字指标。新冠和西班牙流感的R0值都约为1.8,这意味着平均每位感染者会传染1.8人。

两种病毒的致死率同样为2%左右。这两次疫情都经历了多轮,在全球大多数地区至少出现了三次疫情结束的假象。

社会对两种疾病的反应也几乎相同。人们被隔离,戴上口罩,高温蒸煮床单。人们在户外用餐,公共场合被关闭,学校停课,教堂关闭,人们失去工作,无力支付租金和抵押贷款,公共救助大幅增加,政府债务急速膨胀。人们将这些措施政治化,到处爆发抗议示威。

最有趣的是西班牙流感疫情结束之后所发生的事情。

西班牙流感于1920年结束,持续了几乎整整两年。之后,美国经历了人类历史上最伟大的繁荣时期。那段时间被称为“咆哮的二十年代”。这个称号名副其实。

人们摆脱了西班牙流感的阴影,开始举办派对,纵情歌舞和旅游。爵士乐流行起来,时尚业爆炸式增长,建筑业繁荣发展。

在社会上一种进步思潮兴起,德国、英国、荷兰和美国在疫情结束24个月内,终于授予女性投票权。

推动这种变化的是一种现代化和进步潮流,它们最终让我们步入了现代社会。

在1920年代,汽车行业趋于成熟。1920年,全球只有50万辆汽车上路。但在咆哮的二十年代,汽车产量达到2,500万辆。

这与现代的情况惊人地相似。2020年,全球公路上行驶的电动汽车不足100万辆。今年,电动汽车销量将达到三百万辆,到2030年,将有5,000万辆新电动汽车上路。

1925年,电视问世。今天我们拥有元宇宙。

1927年,查尔斯·林德伯格进行了首次单人跨大西洋飞行。现在每天有600万人乘坐飞机!事实上,每天任意时刻都有超过10万人在空中飞来飞去。但2021年,全世界首次开始真正将平民送入太空。我们甚至真得将“柯克船长”送入低地球轨道。

1928年,亚历山大·弗莱明发明了盘尼西林,这种创新药物自问世以来已经拯救了2亿人的生命。2020年,对癌症患者的首批基因编辑试验获得批准,而且先进的信使核糖核酸编辑技术使新冠疫苗快速问世。

在西班牙流感结束后的八年里,金融市场反弹,股价上涨超过400%。全世界创造了大量财富,生活水平大幅提升。

市场因为利率、国际紧张局势、大宗商品冲击和其他一千多个变量的影响出现波动,但在2020年代,我们拥有生气勃勃的劳动力大军,他们在技术支持下成长起来,并且最近经过交叉培训,与他们相比,这些因素无足轻重。历史经验证明,我们只有一个选择:持续投资,除非投资产生负面影响。

本文作者约翰·狄璐罗现任Forcepoint首席营收官,负责促进公司的全球销售,推动业务开发部门加快全球客户采用和部署Forcepoint解决方案。

Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不能代表《财富》杂志的观点和信仰。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

对迫在眉睫的经济衰退的担忧,给医学和科技方面近期取得的突破的巨大潜力蒙上了阴影。摄影:SPENCER PLATT —— 盖蒂图片社

从许多方面来看,最近的日子可以说是非常悲惨。每一个新闻周期过后,世界似乎都在变得愈加黑暗。疫情让我们对亲人的安危提心吊胆。隔离政策残忍地将我们孤立起来。然后是供应短缺。

再加上2022年,金融市场陷入混乱,在过去六个月给投资者造成的损失,超过了过去50年投资者在任何六个月的损失规模。

在这种背景下,许多商人变得畏手畏脚,财务上更加保守,但我是一头愤怒的公牛。

新冠疫情并没有摧毁我们社会的基本结构,而是彰显了人类精神的韧性和我们的适应能力。我们在适应的过程中掌握了新的力量。我们挑战了每一种组织职能、每一种习惯和每一种神秘的社会习俗。我们对每一个研发项目、每一笔传统投资和每一个传统的业务流程进行合力改革。

我们在疫情期间变得更加高效。这一点无可争议:美国的经济规模超过了疫情之前的水平,尽管劳动者人数减少了近300万。

新冠疫情和其他危机刺激了新的思考,提高了生产率,并促使人们采用能创造财富的技术。

新冠肺炎并不是人类第一次经历的全球大流行病。在有文献记载的人类历史上,已经发生过13次全球疫情,每次都造成超过百万人死亡。其中一次与新冠疫情可怕地相似,那就是1918年的西班牙流感疫情。

最早有记录的西班牙流感病例在当年3月发现于美国,但很快法国、德国和英国也出现了病例。在六个月内,病毒席卷了整个世界。两年后,全球近三分之一人口被感染,约有5,000万人死亡。

所有疫情最终都会结束。病毒可能会变异,变得高度致命,结果杀死了宿主导致它们自己灭绝,也可能经过变异后具有更强传染性,导致人类最终产生了免疫力。

西班牙流感与新冠之间可怕的相似性,为我们预测未来十年提供了宝贵的机会。两种病毒的传染性几乎相同。R0值是代表一种病毒传播力的数字指标。新冠和西班牙流感的R0值都约为1.8,这意味着平均每位感染者会传染1.8人。

两种病毒的致死率同样为2%左右。这两次疫情都经历了多轮,在全球大多数地区至少出现了三次疫情结束的假象。

社会对两种疾病的反应也几乎相同。人们被隔离,戴上口罩,高温蒸煮床单。人们在户外用餐,公共场合被关闭,学校停课,教堂关闭,人们失去工作,无力支付租金和抵押贷款,公共救助大幅增加,政府债务急速膨胀。人们将这些措施政治化,到处爆发抗议示威。

最有趣的是西班牙流感疫情结束之后所发生的事情。

西班牙流感于1920年结束,持续了几乎整整两年。之后,美国经历了人类历史上最伟大的繁荣时期。那段时间被称为“咆哮的二十年代”。这个称号名副其实。

人们摆脱了西班牙流感的阴影,开始举办派对,纵情歌舞和旅游。爵士乐流行起来,时尚业爆炸式增长,建筑业繁荣发展。

在社会上一种进步思潮兴起,德国、英国、荷兰和美国在疫情结束24个月内,终于授予女性投票权。

推动这种变化的是一种现代化和进步潮流,它们最终让我们步入了现代社会。

在1920年代,汽车行业趋于成熟。1920年,全球只有50万辆汽车上路。但在咆哮的二十年代,汽车产量达到2,500万辆。

这与现代的情况惊人地相似。2020年,全球公路上行驶的电动汽车不足100万辆。今年,电动汽车销量将达到三百万辆,到2030年,将有5,000万辆新电动汽车上路。

1925年,电视问世。今天我们拥有元宇宙。

1927年,查尔斯·林德伯格进行了首次单人跨大西洋飞行。现在每天有600万人乘坐飞机!事实上,每天任意时刻都有超过10万人在空中飞来飞去。但2021年,全世界首次开始真正将平民送入太空。我们甚至真得将“柯克船长”送入低地球轨道。

1928年,亚历山大·弗莱明发明了盘尼西林,这种创新药物自问世以来已经拯救了2亿人的生命。2020年,对癌症患者的首批基因编辑试验获得批准,而且先进的信使核糖核酸编辑技术使新冠疫苗快速问世。

在西班牙流感结束后的八年里,金融市场反弹,股价上涨超过400%。全世界创造了大量财富,生活水平大幅提升。

市场因为利率、国际紧张局势、大宗商品冲击和其他一千多个变量的影响出现波动,但在2020年代,我们拥有生气勃勃的劳动力大军,他们在技术支持下成长起来,并且最近经过交叉培训,与他们相比,这些因素无足轻重。历史经验证明,我们只有一个选择:持续投资,除非投资产生负面影响。

本文作者约翰·狄璐罗现任Forcepoint首席营收官,负责促进公司的全球销售,推动业务开发部门加快全球客户采用和部署Forcepoint解决方案。

Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不能代表《财富》杂志的观点和信仰。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

In many respects, recent history has been perfectly miserable. With every news cycle, the world seems to be getting darker and darker. The pandemic has made us worry about loved ones. The quarantines were brutally isolating. Then came the shortages.

To top it all off, the financial markets went haywire in 2022, destroying more wealth in the past six months than in any other six-month period in the last 50 years.

Against this backdrop, many businesspeople have become sheepish and financially conservative–but I am a raging bull.

COVID-19 did not destroy the fabric of our society–but it did illuminate the tenacity of the human spirit and our ability to adapt. In the process of adapting, we built new muscles. We challenged every organizational function, every habit, and every arcane social custom. We rationalized every skunkworks project, every legacy investment, and every heritage business process.

We became more efficient during the pandemic. This is irrefutable: The U.S. economy is larger than it was pre-pandemic, even as it operates with nearly 3 million fewer workers.

Pandemics and other crises stimulate new thinking, unlock productivity, and spur the adoption of wealth-creating technologies.

COVID-19 was not the world’s first global pandemic. In recorded human history, there have been 13 pandemics that each claimed more than a million lives. One pandemic, in particular, is eerily similar to COVID-19: the 1918 Spanish Flu.

The earliest documented case of the Spanish Flu was recorded in March of that year in the U.S. But soon cases would be recorded in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Within six months the entire world would be utterly engulfed by the virus. Two years later, nearly a third of the global population was infected and almost 50 million souls had perished.

All pandemics come to an end. They either mutate and become so deadly they burn themselves out by killing their hosts or they mutate and become so contagious that the population ultimately develops immunity.

The uncanny similarities between the Spanish Flu and COVID-19 provide us an invaluable glimpse into the decade that lies ahead. The infectiousness of both diseases was nearly identical. The R0 value is a numerically derived measure of the transmissibility of a disease. COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu both share an R0 of approximately 1.8, meaning that on average just about every person that caught either disease infected another 1.8 people.

Case fatality rates were also nearly identical at about two percent. Both diseases also curiously progressed in waves, signaling false endings at least three times in most parts of the world.

The societal response to both diseases was nearly identical too. People were quarantined, put on masks, and boiled sheets. they ate outdoors, public venues were closed, schools were closed, churches were closed, people lost jobs, rent and mortgages went unpaid, public assistance exploded, and government debts ballooned. People politicized all of those actions as well and protests broke out.

It’s what happened after the Spanish Flu that’s most interesting.

The Spanish Flu ended in 1920, almost exactly two years after it began, and in its wake, the U.S. enjoyed perhaps the greatest era of prosperity in human history. The period was coined the “Roarin’ 20s”. And “roared” they did.

People shook off the gloom of the Spanish Flu and began partying and dancing and singing and traveling. Jazz became popular, fashion exploded, and construction boomed.

Socially, a progressive vibe captured the imagination of the world with Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and the U.S. all finally affording women the right to vote within 24 months of the pandemic’s end.

Underlying all this change was a wave of modernity and progress that propelled us into modernity.

It was during the 1920s that the automobile industry came of age. In 1920 there were only 500,000 automobiles on the road globally. During the Roaring 20s, 25 million cars would be produced.

The congruence with modern times is striking. In 2020, there were less than 1 million EVs on the road. This year, three million EVs will be sold–and the world could add as many as 50 million to the roads by 2030.

In 1925, the television was invented. Today, we have the metaverse.

In 1927 Charles Lindberg piloted the first solo transatlantic flight. Today, 6 million people get in a plane every single day! In fact, at any moment of any day, there are more than 100,000 people in the skies above. But it was 2021 when the world first started putting civilians into space in earnest. We even put Captain Kirk into low-earth orbit, for real.

In 1928 Alexander Fleming invented penicillin–an innovation that has saved 200 million lives since its introduction. In 2020, the first trials of gene editing for cancer patients were approved and cutting-edge Messenger RNA editing led to the lightning-fast development of a COVID vaccine.

In the eight years immediately following the Spanish Flu, financial markets rallied and share prices grew more than 400%. Immense wealth was created and standards of living around the world leaped forward.

Markets are moved by interest rates, world tensions, commodity shocks, and a thousand other variables–but all these factors pale in importance when compared to the juggernaut that the newly invigorated, technology-enabled, and recently cross-trained workforce of the 2020s has become. A student of history has but one option: Invest until it hurts.

John DiLullo is Chief Revenue Officer at Forcepoint, where he is responsible for driving the company’s worldwide sales and business development organizations to accelerate customer adoption and deployment of Forcepoint solutions globally.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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