美国到底有没有陷入经济衰退,已经和打工人是否应该重返办公室一样,成为争论最激烈的社会话题。
最近的新闻通篇都是裁员,科技和金融领域尤其如此,亚马逊(Amazon)、特斯拉(Tesla)和Shopify等响当当的大公司纷纷对疫情初期人数暴涨的在职员工启动裁员。
不过,尽管人们对经济不稳定及高通胀忧心忡忡,最新的就业报告仍显示出一线希望:7月新增就业岗位高于预期。而且,尽管美联储前理事兰德尔•克洛斯纳最近承认,经济衰退马上到来的“可能性增高了”,但他补充说,衰退的破坏性可能不如你想象中那么强烈。
经济衰退对个人的影响也可能取决于你从事的行业,因为有些行业往往更能抗住不稳定的考验。领英(LinkedIn)向《财富》杂志提供了一份清单,有四个行业在经济低迷时仍然可以保持稳定。
领英的高级经济师科里·坎特加研究了从2015年1月到2022年6月,哪些行业的招聘率变化最小。此外,除了2020年的低迷期,这些行业在经济衰退期间的非农就业人数也未出现大幅下降。这些行业按照稳定性从高到低排列如下:
1.公用事业
公用事业行业在经济衰退期间往往能保持平稳,甚至会出现就业增长。新冠疫情期间,该行业的就业也仅仅出现了小幅收缩。虽然它是榜单上四个行业中最稳定的,但坎特加说,该行业员工的就业水平也最低,也就是说,想要在这个行业找份工作很难。
2.政府
与公用事业一样,政府有时甚至会在衰退期间增加就业(同样,新冠病毒疫情期间除外)。根据坎特加的说法,在所列四个行业中,政府的就业水平最高。
3.教育
尽管有许多关于疫情期间大量老师出现职业倦怠的报道,还有一些教师跳槽到其他行业的故事,但对于选择继续教书的人来说,教育仍然是一个稳定的行业。该行业的就业水平位居第二。
4.消费服务
消费服务包括维修维护、个人和洗衣服务以及会员协会和组织。在某些经济衰退期间,该行业的就业水平出现上升,但当经济不安全程度加深时,就业水平会略有下降。该行业的就业水平在四个行业中排名倒数第二。
坎特加说,考虑到公众接受度的问题,解雇政府、非营利组织和教育行业的员工可能更难一些。
“即使在经济困难时期,政府、教育和非营利行业也不能随便调整员工数量,因为这些行业要想修改预算编制,往往需要得到公众某种形式的批准。”他解释说,“在经济衰退期间缩小政府、教育和社会服务的规模往往是不受欢迎的做法。”
坎特加说,公用事业、维修维护服务等行业之所以波动性较小,因为即使在经济衰退期间,这些服务也不能算是奢侈,而是日常生活的一部分。
没有人能完全不受经济衰退的影响,而仍在经受劳动力短缺的行业哪怕在经济不稳定时期也更像是就业市场上的“乞丐”,没什么资格挑肥拣瘦。
坎特加解释说:“尽管各行各业的就业在经济衰退时期都面临风险,但当前医疗和酒店等行业的人手短缺仍然严重,这种情况恐怕会一直持续到经济衰退期间。”(财富中文网)
译者:Agatha
美国到底有没有陷入经济衰退,已经和打工人是否应该重返办公室一样,成为争论最激烈的社会话题。
最近的新闻通篇都是裁员,科技和金融领域尤其如此,亚马逊(Amazon)、特斯拉(Tesla)和Shopify等响当当的大公司纷纷对疫情初期人数暴涨的在职员工启动裁员。
不过,尽管人们对经济不稳定及高通胀忧心忡忡,最新的就业报告仍显示出一线希望:7月新增就业岗位高于预期。而且,尽管美联储前理事兰德尔•克洛斯纳最近承认,经济衰退马上到来的“可能性增高了”,但他补充说,衰退的破坏性可能不如你想象中那么强烈。
经济衰退对个人的影响也可能取决于你从事的行业,因为有些行业往往更能抗住不稳定的考验。领英(LinkedIn)向《财富》杂志提供了一份清单,有四个行业在经济低迷时仍然可以保持稳定。
领英的高级经济师科里·坎特加研究了从2015年1月到2022年6月,哪些行业的招聘率变化最小。此外,除了2020年的低迷期,这些行业在经济衰退期间的非农就业人数也未出现大幅下降。这些行业按照稳定性从高到低排列如下:
1.公用事业
公用事业行业在经济衰退期间往往能保持平稳,甚至会出现就业增长。新冠疫情期间,该行业的就业也仅仅出现了小幅收缩。虽然它是榜单上四个行业中最稳定的,但坎特加说,该行业员工的就业水平也最低,也就是说,想要在这个行业找份工作很难。
2.政府
与公用事业一样,政府有时甚至会在衰退期间增加就业(同样,新冠病毒疫情期间除外)。根据坎特加的说法,在所列四个行业中,政府的就业水平最高。
3.教育
尽管有许多关于疫情期间大量老师出现职业倦怠的报道,还有一些教师跳槽到其他行业的故事,但对于选择继续教书的人来说,教育仍然是一个稳定的行业。该行业的就业水平位居第二。
4.消费服务
消费服务包括维修维护、个人和洗衣服务以及会员协会和组织。在某些经济衰退期间,该行业的就业水平出现上升,但当经济不安全程度加深时,就业水平会略有下降。该行业的就业水平在四个行业中排名倒数第二。
坎特加说,考虑到公众接受度的问题,解雇政府、非营利组织和教育行业的员工可能更难一些。
“即使在经济困难时期,政府、教育和非营利行业也不能随便调整员工数量,因为这些行业要想修改预算编制,往往需要得到公众某种形式的批准。”他解释说,“在经济衰退期间缩小政府、教育和社会服务的规模往往是不受欢迎的做法。”
坎特加说,公用事业、维修维护服务等行业之所以波动性较小,因为即使在经济衰退期间,这些服务也不能算是奢侈,而是日常生活的一部分。
没有人能完全不受经济衰退的影响,而仍在经受劳动力短缺的行业哪怕在经济不稳定时期也更像是就业市场上的“乞丐”,没什么资格挑肥拣瘦。
坎特加解释说:“尽管各行各业的就业在经济衰退时期都面临风险,但当前医疗和酒店等行业的人手短缺仍然严重,这种情况恐怕会一直持续到经济衰退期间。”(财富中文网)
译者:Agatha
Whether the U.S. is in a recession or not has become as hotly contested as the debate on whether workers should return to office.
Layoffs have dominated the news recently, especially in tech and finance as big names like Amazon, Tesla, and Shopify cut down their workforces that had grown exponentially during the early pandemic.
But despite fears of economic insecurity and high inflation, the latest jobs report shows a silver lining: employers added more jobs in July than initially predicted. And while Randall Kroszner, the former Federal Reserve governor, recently admitted that there is an “elevated possibility” of an imminent recession, he added that it likely won’t be as devastating as you might think.
The personal impact of a recession may also depend on what industry you work in, as some tend to weather instability better than others. There are four industries in particular that typically remain stable during a downturn, according to a list LinkedIn provided to Fortune.
Kory Kantenga, senior economist at LinkedIn, examined which industries had the least variation in hiring rates from January 2015 to June 2022. They also didn’t show dramatic drops in non-farm payrolls during a recession, with the exception of the downturn in 2020. They’re ranked from most to least stable:
1. Utilities
This sector tends to remain flat and even experience increases in employment during recessions. When the coronavirus recession hit, utilities only experienced a small decline. While it’s the most stable industry of all four on this list, Kantenga says those working in utilities experience the lowest employment level—that means it’s a more difficult industry to get a job in.
2. Government
Like the utilities sector, the government sometimes even adds employment during recessions (again, with the exception of the coronavirus recession). Government has the highest employment level of all industries listed, according to Kantega.
3. Education
Despite reports of massive burnout and stories of teachers defecting to other industries during the pandemic, education remains a stable industry for those who choose to remain teaching. This industry has the second highest employment level.
4. Consumer Services
Consumer services involves jobs in repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, and membership associations and organizations. Employment levels increase during some recessions, but slightly decrease during deeper times of economic insecurity. Consumer industries has the second lowest level of employment of all four industries.
Simply laying off workers in government, nonprofit, and education fields can be more difficult because of how it’s generally received by the public, Kantega says.
“Even when hard times hit, industries like government, education, and nonprofits cannot easily adjust their workforces because changing their budget usually requires some type of social approval,” he explains. “Withdrawing government, educational, and social services in a recession is generally frowned upon.”
Other industries, like utilities and repair and maintenance services, often experience less volatility because they remain less of a luxury and part of lifestyle even during a recession, Kantega says.
No one is completely immune to being affected by a recession, but industries still dealing with the labor shortage are more beggars than choosers during times of instability.
“While workforces in all industries are vulnerable in a recession, some industries like health care and hospitality still have severe staffing shortages that may endure well into a recession,” explains Kantega.