就在大多数人认为高企的通货膨胀可能会有所缓解时,一位首席经济学家却持有相反观点。
他表明,只要通货膨胀率居高不下,美联储(Federal Reserve)就会持续加息,试图抑制通货膨胀。
“预计美联储将采取激进措施,因为通胀不会随随便便就消失。”哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的经济学家杰弗里·萨克斯于8月17日告诉美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)的《Street Signs Asia》栏目。
萨克斯的观点似乎在接受采访几小时后就被证明是正确的,当时最新公布的美联储7月会议纪要表明,如果通胀率仍然居高不下,官员们就将考虑再次加息。他们表示这种情况可能会持续“一段时间”,美联储将维持高利率直到经济最终开始降温。
美联储的会议纪要写道:“与会者一致认为,政策利率上调的速度和未来政策收紧的程度,将取决于即将到来的信息对经济前景的影响以及经济前景面临的风险。”
尽管7月的通胀有所缓解,物价与上月相比没有变化,但仍然比上年同期上涨8.5%。美联储在今年已经数次加息,试图抑制通胀,这让借款人和潜在房主懊恼不已。
萨克斯表示,他认为美国当前高通胀的根源甚至早在新冠疫情爆发之前就开始了,但政府的疫情应对措施是导致如今物价上涨的原因。
他指出:“美联储确实大幅增加了货币供应量,尤其是在新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月,美联储希望避免任何形式的金融危机。它成功做到了这一点,但这一做法必然造成大量通胀。”
包括美国财政部的部长珍妮特·耶伦在内的许多知名经济学家最初都认为,通胀将是暂时的,但事实证明,通胀非常顽固。今年2月,俄乌冲突爆发,推高了世界各地的燃料价格,并造成关键供应链中断,也加剧了物价上涨。
萨克斯认为通胀不会“很快”消失,但没有详细说明时间表。他还补充称:“各国央行,尤其是美联储,需要采取更激进的措施。”
萨克斯说:“我们不断通过战争、制裁和地缘政治紧张局势来加剧供应方面的冲击。与此同时,流动性激增带来的需求侧冲击不会很快消失。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
就在大多数人认为高企的通货膨胀可能会有所缓解时,一位首席经济学家却持有相反观点。
他表明,只要通货膨胀率居高不下,美联储(Federal Reserve)就会持续加息,试图抑制通货膨胀。
“预计美联储将采取激进措施,因为通胀不会随随便便就消失。”哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的经济学家杰弗里·萨克斯于8月17日告诉美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)的《Street Signs Asia》栏目。
萨克斯的观点似乎在接受采访几小时后就被证明是正确的,当时最新公布的美联储7月会议纪要表明,如果通胀率仍然居高不下,官员们就将考虑再次加息。他们表示这种情况可能会持续“一段时间”,美联储将维持高利率直到经济最终开始降温。
美联储的会议纪要写道:“与会者一致认为,政策利率上调的速度和未来政策收紧的程度,将取决于即将到来的信息对经济前景的影响以及经济前景面临的风险。”
尽管7月的通胀有所缓解,物价与上月相比没有变化,但仍然比上年同期上涨8.5%。美联储在今年已经数次加息,试图抑制通胀,这让借款人和潜在房主懊恼不已。
萨克斯表示,他认为美国当前高通胀的根源甚至早在新冠疫情爆发之前就开始了,但政府的疫情应对措施是导致如今物价上涨的原因。
他指出:“美联储确实大幅增加了货币供应量,尤其是在新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月,美联储希望避免任何形式的金融危机。它成功做到了这一点,但这一做法必然造成大量通胀。”
包括美国财政部的部长珍妮特·耶伦在内的许多知名经济学家最初都认为,通胀将是暂时的,但事实证明,通胀非常顽固。今年2月,俄乌冲突爆发,推高了世界各地的燃料价格,并造成关键供应链中断,也加剧了物价上涨。
萨克斯认为通胀不会“很快”消失,但没有详细说明时间表。他还补充称:“各国央行,尤其是美联储,需要采取更激进的措施。”
萨克斯说:“我们不断通过战争、制裁和地缘政治紧张局势来加剧供应方面的冲击。与此同时,流动性激增带来的需求侧冲击不会很快消失。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Just when you think there might be a little bit of relief from sky-high inflation, a top economist says otherwise.
And he says that as long as inflation stays high, the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to try to bring it down.
“Expect the Fed to get aggressive, because inflation is not simply going to disappear,” Jeffrey Sachs, an economist at Columbia University, told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia on August 17.
Sachs seemed to be proven right just hours after his interview, when newly released minutes from the Fed’s July meeting indicated that officials will consider raising interest rates again if inflation remains high, which they said would likely be true “for some time,” and hold those rates until the economy starts to finally cool down.
“Participants concurred that the pace of policy rate increases and the extent of future policy tightening would depend on the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and risks to the outlook,” the Fed’s minutes read.
Even though inflation eased in July, with no change in prices compared to the previous month, it was still up 8.5% year over year. The Fed has raised interest rates several times this year in an attempt to cool inflation, to the chagrin of borrowers and prospective homeowners.
Sachs said he believed that the roots of the current high inflation in the U.S. started even before the pandemic, but the government’s response to COVID is what has led to higher prices today.
“The Fed really pumped up the money supply remarkably, especially in the early months of the pandemic—it wanted to avoid any kind of financial crisis,” he said. “It succeeded in doing that but it definitely pushed out a lot of inflation.”
Many high-profile economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, initially thought that inflation would be transitory, but it has proven to be remarkably stubborn. The rise in prices was also exacerbated by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February, which drove up fuel prices around the world, and disrupted critical supply chains.
Sachs doesn’t see inflation going away “anytime soon,” but did not elaborate on a timeline, adding that there would need to be “more aggressive action by the central banks and especially the Fed.”
“We keep stoking the supply-side shocks with war, with sanctions, and with geopolitical tensions,” the economist said. “At the same time, the demand-side shock that came from the bulge in liquidity doesn’t go away any time soon.”