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美国股市下探,美联储拍手叫好

Will Daniel
2022-09-01

近期股市的下探对美联储的官员来说是一个好消息,因为他们希望看到资产价格下跌,这样有助于他们控制通胀。

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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(右)与美联储副主席莱尔·布雷纳德(中)和纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)的行长约翰·威廉姆斯在杰克逊霍尔。图片来源:PAUL MORRIS—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

在投资者理解了美联储(Federal Reserve)的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的美联储年度研讨会上发表的强硬讲话之后,股市的夏季狂欢在8月26日画上了句号。

鲍威尔明确表示,应对通胀是美联储的首要任务,即使些许“疼痛”在所难免,美联储会继续加息,而且“这段时间以来”一直在缩减其资产负债表。

此言一出,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)连跌三日,当前点位较8月25日收盘时下滑了逾5%。科技股占比较大的纳斯达克(Nasdaq)对美联储政策更为敏感,其同期跌幅达到了近7%。

富国银行(Wells Fargo)的全球市场策略负责人保罗·克里斯托弗在8月30日的一则研究纪要中写道,在今年夏季的股市狂欢中,投资者曾经预计美联储会因为不断增加的衰退恐慌“转而”下调利率。然而,鲍威尔的讲话迅速改变了这一看法,引发了本周美股的大跌。

他写道:“上周怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的全球央行经济研讨会传出的信息是:顽固的通胀将迫使大多数国家的央行继续采取激进政策。美联储向美国传递的信息更是明确强调了这一点。”

自2022年年初至今,为了给经济降温并降低消费品价格,美联储一直在加息,但并未引发衰退。然而到目前为止,其举措收效甚微,美国今年7月的通胀水平依然接近40年来的最高点。

这意味着近期股市的下探对美联储的官员来说是一个好消息,因为他们希望看到资产价格下跌,这样有助于他们控制通胀。

股价下跌意味着市场已经收到了正确的信息:通胀应对这个任务对美联储而言已经高于一切,因此至少在今年剩下的时间中,限制性的政策立场应该是意料之中的事情。

因此,美联储官员对鲍威尔讲话引发的股市消极态势可谓是拍手叫好。

明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)的行长尼尔·卡什卡里在本周参加Odd Lots播客节目时向彭博社(Bloomberg)的特蕾西·阿洛维和乔·韦森索尔透露:“实际上,市场对鲍威尔主席在杰克逊霍尔演讲的反应令我感到十分欣慰。人们如今理解了美联储誓将通胀降至2%一事的严肃性。”

卡什卡里指出,在美联储的6月会议之后,市场参与者对美联储通胀应对举措的持续影响力产生了误解,因而导致股市在今年6月至8月中旬期间上涨了约17%。

他说:“当看到股市在我们上次召开联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)的会议之后继续攀升,我真的是高兴不起来,因为我知道美联储为了降低通胀付出了巨大的努力,我多少觉得市场误解了这一信息。”

卡什卡里并非是第一位强调“要降低通胀就得给包括股价在内的资产价格降温”这一理念的美联储官员。

今年4月,纽约联邦储备银行(New York Federal Reserve)的前任行长比尔·达德利撰写了一篇名为《如果股市不跌,美联储就得逼其下跌》(If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them)的文章。他在文中解释了为什么美联储将降低股价作为加息的目标之一,因为股价影响了美国民众对其财富的看法,以及随之而来的消费方式。

杜达利解释称:“无论采取哪种方式,为了控制通胀,美联储都应该推高债券收益率,拉低股价。”

LPL Financial的首席经济师杰弗里·罗奇告诉《财富》杂志,鲍威尔的演讲以及现任和前任美联储官员的评论都表明,这家央行一心想要“让酒杯远离宴会桌。”

罗奇的“酒杯”比喻源自于美联储的前任主席威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁,他在1955年面向美国投资银行业者协会(Investment Bankers Association)发表的演讲中曾经提到,当美联储降息时,美联储就像是一位“在舞会刚热闹起来之后便下令将酒杯撤走的监护人”。

罗奇认为,美联储过去10年通过降息和量化宽松(央行购买抵押担保证券和政府债务来增加借贷和投资的政策)手段刺激经济增长的尝试,开启了一场风险资产的盛宴。

今年,美联储的加息为这场盛宴画上了句号,但投资者觉得“酒杯”(低利息和量化宽松)可能在衰退恐惧中回归人们的视野。杰克逊霍尔的演讲明确指出,这一点在短期内不大可能发生。

尽管撤走“酒杯”对投资者而言不一定是好事,但我们有必要在劳动力市场依旧火热时降低通胀水平。罗奇指出,今年7月,每个失业人员对应的工作岗位空缺回升至接近其3月峰值的水平。

他说:“每位可用劳动力依然拥有大约两个岗位。因此从目前来看,美联储就更有底气继续义正严词地谈论其通胀应对强制令。”

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的吉姆·里德在8月30日的研究纪要中写道,在通胀得到切实控制之前,美联储正在尝试通过继续采取激进加息的手段来避免“重蹈20世纪70年代的覆辙”。

The Bahnsen Group的首席投资官大卫·巴恩森告诉《财富》杂志,有鉴于这一激进的政策立场,美联储讲话引发市场疲软这件事情并不出人意料。

他说:“市场对于各种不同的主流声音也是疑惑不已,从通胀走向到美联储政策不确定性再到下半年企业营收将增长,所有这些因素都成了波动性的推手。”

瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)的资产配置部门负责人贾森·德拉霍在8月30日的研究纪要里也表达了类似的看法,称投资者应该为“高波动性市场体制”做好准备。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

在投资者理解了美联储(Federal Reserve)的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的美联储年度研讨会上发表的强硬讲话之后,股市的夏季狂欢在8月26日画上了句号。

鲍威尔明确表示,应对通胀是美联储的首要任务,即使些许“疼痛”在所难免,美联储会继续加息,而且“这段时间以来”一直在缩减其资产负债表。

此言一出,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)连跌三日,当前点位较8月25日收盘时下滑了逾5%。科技股占比较大的纳斯达克(Nasdaq)对美联储政策更为敏感,其同期跌幅达到了近7%。

富国银行(Wells Fargo)的全球市场策略负责人保罗·克里斯托弗在8月30日的一则研究纪要中写道,在今年夏季的股市狂欢中,投资者曾经预计美联储会因为不断增加的衰退恐慌“转而”下调利率。然而,鲍威尔的讲话迅速改变了这一看法,引发了本周美股的大跌。

他写道:“上周怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的全球央行经济研讨会传出的信息是:顽固的通胀将迫使大多数国家的央行继续采取激进政策。美联储向美国传递的信息更是明确强调了这一点。”

自2022年年初至今,为了给经济降温并降低消费品价格,美联储一直在加息,但并未引发衰退。然而到目前为止,其举措收效甚微,美国今年7月的通胀水平依然接近40年来的最高点。

这意味着近期股市的下探对美联储的官员来说是一个好消息,因为他们希望看到资产价格下跌,这样有助于他们控制通胀。

股价下跌意味着市场已经收到了正确的信息:通胀应对这个任务对美联储而言已经高于一切,因此至少在今年剩下的时间中,限制性的政策立场应该是意料之中的事情。

因此,美联储官员对鲍威尔讲话引发的股市消极态势可谓是拍手叫好。

明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)的行长尼尔·卡什卡里在本周参加Odd Lots播客节目时向彭博社(Bloomberg)的特蕾西·阿洛维和乔·韦森索尔透露:“实际上,市场对鲍威尔主席在杰克逊霍尔演讲的反应令我感到十分欣慰。人们如今理解了美联储誓将通胀降至2%一事的严肃性。”

卡什卡里指出,在美联储的6月会议之后,市场参与者对美联储通胀应对举措的持续影响力产生了误解,因而导致股市在今年6月至8月中旬期间上涨了约17%。

他说:“当看到股市在我们上次召开联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)的会议之后继续攀升,我真的是高兴不起来,因为我知道美联储为了降低通胀付出了巨大的努力,我多少觉得市场误解了这一信息。”

卡什卡里并非是第一位强调“要降低通胀就得给包括股价在内的资产价格降温”这一理念的美联储官员。

今年4月,纽约联邦储备银行(New York Federal Reserve)的前任行长比尔·达德利撰写了一篇名为《如果股市不跌,美联储就得逼其下跌》(If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them)的文章。他在文中解释了为什么美联储将降低股价作为加息的目标之一,因为股价影响了美国民众对其财富的看法,以及随之而来的消费方式。

杜达利解释称:“无论采取哪种方式,为了控制通胀,美联储都应该推高债券收益率,拉低股价。”

LPL Financial的首席经济师杰弗里·罗奇告诉《财富》杂志,鲍威尔的演讲以及现任和前任美联储官员的评论都表明,这家央行一心想要“让酒杯远离宴会桌。”

罗奇的“酒杯”比喻源自于美联储的前任主席威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁,他在1955年面向美国投资银行业者协会(Investment Bankers Association)发表的演讲中曾经提到,当美联储降息时,美联储就像是一位“在舞会刚热闹起来之后便下令将酒杯撤走的监护人”。

罗奇认为,美联储过去10年通过降息和量化宽松(央行购买抵押担保证券和政府债务来增加借贷和投资的政策)手段刺激经济增长的尝试,开启了一场风险资产的盛宴。

今年,美联储的加息为这场盛宴画上了句号,但投资者觉得“酒杯”(低利息和量化宽松)可能在衰退恐惧中回归人们的视野。杰克逊霍尔的演讲明确指出,这一点在短期内不大可能发生。

尽管撤走“酒杯”对投资者而言不一定是好事,但我们有必要在劳动力市场依旧火热时降低通胀水平。罗奇指出,今年7月,每个失业人员对应的工作岗位空缺回升至接近其3月峰值的水平。

他说:“每位可用劳动力依然拥有大约两个岗位。因此从目前来看,美联储就更有底气继续义正严词地谈论其通胀应对强制令。”

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的吉姆·里德在8月30日的研究纪要中写道,在通胀得到切实控制之前,美联储正在尝试通过继续采取激进加息的手段来避免“重蹈20世纪70年代的覆辙”。

The Bahnsen Group的首席投资官大卫·巴恩森告诉《财富》杂志,有鉴于这一激进的政策立场,美联储讲话引发市场疲软这件事情并不出人意料。

他说:“市场对于各种不同的主流声音也是疑惑不已,从通胀走向到美联储政策不确定性再到下半年企业营收将增长,所有这些因素都成了波动性的推手。”

瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)的资产配置部门负责人贾森·德拉霍在8月30日的研究纪要里也表达了类似的看法,称投资者应该为“高波动性市场体制”做好准备。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

The stock market’s summer rally ended on August 26 as investors digested hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Powell made it clear that fighting inflation is the Fed’s top priority and that even if some “pain” is required, the central bank would continue raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet “for some time.”

The S&P 500 has dropped in all three trading days since the speech and is now down over 5% from August 25’s closing price. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, has dropped nearly 7% over the same period.

Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo, wrote in a August 30 research note that during this summer’s equity market rally investors had expected the Fed to “pivot” to interest rate cuts due to rising recession fears. But Powell’s speech changed that view quickly, causing stocks to fall this week.

“The message from the global central bank economic symposium last week at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, was that stubborn inflation will require continued aggressive policy in most countries. The Fed’s message for the U.S. was especially clear on this point,” he wrote.

Throughout 2022, the Fed has been raising interest rates in an attempt to cool the economy and reduce consumer prices, all without instigating a recession. But so far, its efforts haven’t made much of a dent, with inflation remaining near a 40-year high in July.

This means that the recent drop in the stock market is welcome news for Fed officials who need asset prices to fall if they want to get inflation under control.

Falling stock prices are a sign that the market has received the right message: the Fed is focused on inflation above all else, and a restrictive policy stance should be expected for at least the remainder of the year.

As a result, Fed officials have been celebrating the market’s negative reaction to Powell’s comments.

“I was actually happy to see how Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was received,” Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal on the Odd Lots podcast this week. “People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.”

Kashkari pointed out that after the Fed’s June meeting, market participants got the wrong idea about the staying power of the Fed’s inflation-fighting measures, which led to a roughly 17% rally in stocks from June to mid-August.

“I certainly was not excited to see the stock market rallying after our last Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” he said. “Because I know how committed we all are to getting inflation down. And I somehow think the markets were misunderstanding that.”

Kashkari isn’t the first Fed official to emphasize that asset prices, including stock prices, must fall in order to reduce inflation.

In April, Bill Dudley, the former New York Federal Reserve president, wrote an article titled “If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them” in which he elaborated how part of the Fed’s goal when raising interest rates should be to reduce stock prices because they influence how Americans feel about their wealth and, therefore, how they spend.

“One way or another, to get inflation under control, the Fed will need to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower,” Dudley explained.

Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial’s chief economist, told Fortune that Powell’s speech and the comments from current and former Fed officials are evidence of the central bank’s commitment to “keep the punch bowl away from the table.”

Roach’s “punch bowl” metaphor traces back to former Fed Chair William McChesney Martin, who said in a 1955 speech to the Investment Bankers Association that when the Fed cuts rates it’s in the position of “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

Roach argues that the Fed’s attempts to spur economic growth over the past decade through interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE)—a policy where the central bank buys mortgage-backed securities and government bonds in order to increase lending and investment—started a party in risky assets.

This year, the Fed’s interest rate hikes have ended that party, but investors thought the punchbowl (low-interest rates and QE) might return amid recession fears. The Jackson Hole speech made it clear that this is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

While removing the punch bowl might not be great for investors, it may be necessary to reduce inflation as the labor market remains hot. Roach noted that, in July, the number of job openings per unemployed person jumped back up to near its March peak.

“There are still roughly two job openings for every one person available to work. So for now, the Fed has more reasons to keep talking tough on its inflation-fighting mandate,” he said.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid also wrote in a August 30 research note that the Fed is attempting to avoid “repeating the mistakes of the 1970s” by continuing with aggressive rate hikes until inflation is well under control.

The market’s weakness after the Fed’s comments isn’t surprising given this aggressive policy stance, David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, a wealth management firm, told Fortune.

“The market is grappling with a variety of different headlines from the direction of inflation to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and how corporate earnings will fare throughout the remainder of the year and all of these factors are drivers of volatility,” he said.

Jason Draho, the head of asset allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management, struck a similar tone in a August 30 research note, saying investors should be preparing for a “market regime of high volatility.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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