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Pro比基本款卖得火,iPhone 14怎么了?

Jacob Carpenter
2022-09-29

对苹果公司来说,数百万消费者越来越青睐高价机型,这显然没有任何坏处。

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自从iPhone 14发售以来,数据显示,全球消费者显然更喜欢Pro版。

自今年9月中旬苹果公司(Apple)的iPhone 14上架以来,多项数据显示,消费者更青睐售价较高的Pro(美国售价999美元)和Pro Max(美国售价1,099美元),而不是公认乏善可陈的基本款(美国售价899美元)。

Evercore ISI的分析师阿米特·达里亚纳尼于上周在一份研究报告中指出,估计有56%的iPhone 14买主都准备入手Pro或者Pro Max,较去年iPhone 13发布时大幅提升(41%)。

天风国际证券公司(TF International Securities)的分析师、苹果研究专家郭明錤也认为,今年下半年,iPhone 14的出货有60%到65%都将是Pro机型。

《金融时报》(Financial Times)也在9月26日报道,根据Counterpoint Research公司的预测,由于消费者对Pro机型的青睐,今年第四季度,iPhone手机的平均售价预计将达到944美元,超过去年同期的873美元。而iPhone 13和iPhone 14的各机型在发布时的售价几乎没有什么差别。

只要iPhone手机的销量能够保持稳定,消费者青睐更高价的Pro,对苹果公司来说显然是一件好事。多位分析师都预测称,今年下半年iPhone手机的出货量将不亚于去年同期,甚至还有可能超过去年。

不过,这对苹果公司有何长期影响,就值得研究一下了。

如果从传统观点看,Pro版本的走红,说明苹果发现iPhone的价格弹性要超过之前的预期。

尽管遭遇了几十年一遇的高通胀和经济低迷,但事实表明,只要iPhone买家觉得这笔钱花的值,他们还是愿意继续买苹果手机的。iPhone 14 Pro比基本款多了几项功能,比如所谓的“灵动岛”和常亮屏,摄像头组件也要更加强大。而基本款相比去年的iPhone 13只作了小幅升级。

还有一些因素可能也促进了Pro版的需求,所以我们暂时还难以从iPhone 14 Pro目前的成功中获取什么有用的经验。

首先,美国三大运营商美国电话电报公司(AT&T)、威瑞森(Verizon)和T-Mobile今年都特别积极地为iPhone 14提供了以旧换新优惠,使消费者花最少的钱就可以获得最新款的iPhone 14 Pro或Pro Max。有些情况下,消费者甚至能够免费领取到最新款的顶配iPhone,前提是他们愿意以旧换新,且购买特定套餐。

运营商之所以特别热衷于以旧换新,就是希望借此把消费者绑定在自家最新的5G网络上,毕竟它们为了建5G网络可是花了不少钱。

据《投资者商业日报》(Investor 's Business Daily)报道,达里亚纳尼在上周的一份报告中指出:“运营商的大力推广对苹果是一个重大利好,这些被忽略的举措起到了显著的杠杆作用,它们降低了对于消费者的价格,并且给iPhone的换机周期以强力的支持。”

另一方面,很多消费者也恰好迎来了换机周期,这也一定程度上有益于iPhone 14的销量。

据韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)的分析师丹·艾夫斯估计,在10亿部消费者正在使用的iPhone中,大约2.4亿部已经至少使用了三年半,因为现在消费者的换机周期变得更长了。但由于无线运营商现在愿意提供大幅折扣,很多坚持使用旧手机的消费者如今也会把iPhone 14当作一个难得的换机机会。

即便iPhone 14 Pro的成功表明人们确实就是喜欢1,000美元以上的高档手机,那么苹果可以继续摘到桃子的时间也将非常有限。据彭博社(Bloomberg)今年3月报道,苹果正在开发一项硬件订阅服务,届时iPhone手机将更像是一种租赁设备,而不是一款需要购买的产品。到时候,新款的iPhone手机有可能会与Apple Music、Apple Fitness+和iCloud+等订阅服务捆绑销售。

而对苹果公司来说,数百万消费者越来越青睐高价机型,这显然没有任何坏处。只是现在就断言iPhone 14 Pro的走红是昙花一现,还是环境的产物,抑或将成为一种趋势,还为时过早。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

自从iPhone 14发售以来,数据显示,全球消费者显然更喜欢Pro版。

自今年9月中旬苹果公司(Apple)的iPhone 14上架以来,多项数据显示,消费者更青睐售价较高的Pro(美国售价999美元)和Pro Max(美国售价1,099美元),而不是公认乏善可陈的基本款(美国售价899美元)。

Evercore ISI的分析师阿米特·达里亚纳尼于上周在一份研究报告中指出,估计有56%的iPhone 14买主都准备入手Pro或者Pro Max,较去年iPhone 13发布时大幅提升(41%)。

天风国际证券公司(TF International Securities)的分析师、苹果研究专家郭明錤也认为,今年下半年,iPhone 14的出货有60%到65%都将是Pro机型。

《金融时报》(Financial Times)也在9月26日报道,根据Counterpoint Research公司的预测,由于消费者对Pro机型的青睐,今年第四季度,iPhone手机的平均售价预计将达到944美元,超过去年同期的873美元。而iPhone 13和iPhone 14的各机型在发布时的售价几乎没有什么差别。

只要iPhone手机的销量能够保持稳定,消费者青睐更高价的Pro,对苹果公司来说显然是一件好事。多位分析师都预测称,今年下半年iPhone手机的出货量将不亚于去年同期,甚至还有可能超过去年。

不过,这对苹果公司有何长期影响,就值得研究一下了。

如果从传统观点看,Pro版本的走红,说明苹果发现iPhone的价格弹性要超过之前的预期。

尽管遭遇了几十年一遇的高通胀和经济低迷,但事实表明,只要iPhone买家觉得这笔钱花的值,他们还是愿意继续买苹果手机的。iPhone 14 Pro比基本款多了几项功能,比如所谓的“灵动岛”和常亮屏,摄像头组件也要更加强大。而基本款相比去年的iPhone 13只作了小幅升级。

还有一些因素可能也促进了Pro版的需求,所以我们暂时还难以从iPhone 14 Pro目前的成功中获取什么有用的经验。

首先,美国三大运营商美国电话电报公司(AT&T)、威瑞森(Verizon)和T-Mobile今年都特别积极地为iPhone 14提供了以旧换新优惠,使消费者花最少的钱就可以获得最新款的iPhone 14 Pro或Pro Max。有些情况下,消费者甚至能够免费领取到最新款的顶配iPhone,前提是他们愿意以旧换新,且购买特定套餐。

运营商之所以特别热衷于以旧换新,就是希望借此把消费者绑定在自家最新的5G网络上,毕竟它们为了建5G网络可是花了不少钱。

据《投资者商业日报》(Investor 's Business Daily)报道,达里亚纳尼在上周的一份报告中指出:“运营商的大力推广对苹果是一个重大利好,这些被忽略的举措起到了显著的杠杆作用,它们降低了对于消费者的价格,并且给iPhone的换机周期以强力的支持。”

另一方面,很多消费者也恰好迎来了换机周期,这也一定程度上有益于iPhone 14的销量。

据韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)的分析师丹·艾夫斯估计,在10亿部消费者正在使用的iPhone中,大约2.4亿部已经至少使用了三年半,因为现在消费者的换机周期变得更长了。但由于无线运营商现在愿意提供大幅折扣,很多坚持使用旧手机的消费者如今也会把iPhone 14当作一个难得的换机机会。

即便iPhone 14 Pro的成功表明人们确实就是喜欢1,000美元以上的高档手机,那么苹果可以继续摘到桃子的时间也将非常有限。据彭博社(Bloomberg)今年3月报道,苹果正在开发一项硬件订阅服务,届时iPhone手机将更像是一种租赁设备,而不是一款需要购买的产品。到时候,新款的iPhone手机有可能会与Apple Music、Apple Fitness+和iCloud+等订阅服务捆绑销售。

而对苹果公司来说,数百万消费者越来越青睐高价机型,这显然没有任何坏处。只是现在就断言iPhone 14 Pro的走红是昙花一现,还是环境的产物,抑或将成为一种趋势,还为时过早。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

With regard to the latest line of iPhones, it’s clear that global consumers are pro-Pro.

As the Apple iPhone 14 flies off the proverbial shelves following its mid-September release, multiple data points show that buyers are gravitating toward the more-expensive Pro ($999 in the U.S.) and Pro Max ($1,099) versions of the smartphone, shunning a base model ($899) that’s been widely panned as uninspiring.

In a research note last week, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani estimated that about 56% of iPhone 14 buyers planned to purchase a Pro or Pro Max model, up from 41% during last year’s rollout of the iPhone 13.

The projection mirrored one from TF International Securities analyst and Apple guru Ming-Chi Kuo, who predicted that iPhone 14 Pro models will account for 60-65% of the line’s shipments in the second half of 2022.

The Financial Times also reported on September 26 that Counterpoint Research forecasts the average selling price of an iPhone will hit $944 in the fourth quarter of 2022, up from $873 during the same period last year, because of customers opting for the Pro model. Prices for the iPhone 13 and 14 series were essentially unchanged at the time of their respective releases.

The preference for the higher-priced Pro is undoubtedly a win for Apple, provided that unit sales remain consistent. Multiple analysts expect Apple will move a similar number of new iPhones in the latter half of 2022 when compared to the prior year—and might even exceed that total.

What exactly that means long-term for Apple, however, is a bit convoluted.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Apple is discovering the iPhone’s price elasticity is even better than originally thought.

Despite generationally high inflation and a general economic malaise, iPhone buyers are showing they’re willing to pony up if they see better value in an Apple smartphone. The iPhone 14 Pro contains several added features that aren’t in the base model, including the Dynamic Island module, an always-on screen, and a better camera. The base model, meanwhile, received minimal upgrades over last year’s iteration.

But there are other confounding factors that might be contributing to demand for the Pro version, making it difficult to draw lessons from its apparent success.

AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have been particularly aggressive this year in offering trade-in deals for the iPhone 14, allowing customers to get an iPhone 14 Pro or Pro Max for minimal money. In some cases, customers can get the top-of-the-line phones for free, provided they have the right trade-in and sign up for specific wireless plans.

The competitive trade-in offerings are designed to lock customers into each wireless provider’s new 5G network, which cost those companies massive sums of money to set up.

“The aggregate promotions are a significant positive for Apple,” Daryanani said in a client note last week, according to Investor’s Business Daily. “These actions act as an underappreciated lever that could ease price points for consumers and support a strong iPhone cycle.”

Apple also might be hitting customers at just the right time in their smartphone renewal cycle, providing a slightly artificial boost to the iPhone 14 line.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives estimates that about 240 million out of the 1 billion iPhones in circulation are at least 3 ½ years old, as customers hang on to their devices longer. With wireless carriers offering deep discounts on iPhones, consumers clinging to their aging hardware might be using the iPhone 14 as an opportunity to upgrade on the cheap.

Even if the iPhone 14 Pro’s success is truly rooted in a willingness to splurge on $1,000 phones, Apple’s runway for building on this triumph could be short. As Bloomberg reported in March, Apple is working on a hardware subscription service that would treat iPhones more like a leased device, rather than a purchased product. The approach likely would involve Apple bundling new iPhones with some of subscription services, such as Apple Music, Apple Fitness+, and iCloud+.

For Apple, there’s no real downside to millions of customers increasingly opting for a higher-priced product. It’s just too early to conclude whether the iPhone 14 Pro’s prosperity is a phenomenon, a product of circumstances, or a prevailing trend.

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