在为股东带来收益的三大方式中——资本利得、回购和股息——长期来看,股息是最有力的贡献者。Hartford Funds公司在最近的一项研究中发现,从1973年到2021年,按季度派息的公司每年录得9.6%的年回报率,打破了不派息公司4.79%的纪录,超过了整体市场8.2%的平均水平。自1930年以来,派息股贡献了40%的股东总收益。然而,在过去15年里,随着市盈率(P/E)的爆炸式增长(主要是由从不派息的科技巨头股价飙升推动的),股息收益所占的比例下降了一半以上,降至15%左右。由于这种下跌趋势,投资者几乎忘记了历史上表现最好的是派息公司。
如今,动荡的环境对那些长跑冠军非常有利。要了解原因,重要的是要分析一下典型的派息公司中坚力量的情况。这些都是成熟的、总体稳定的企业,对资本的投资需求并不大。它们的巅峰成长阶段已经过去。它们收益的最佳用途是将现金转给投资者。派息股的一个标志就是与整体市场相比,它们很便宜,现在的情况更是如此。它们提供相对于股价的高收益,这一方案使它们能够支付巨额收益。Research Affiliates的首席执行官克里斯·布赖特曼说:“与增长相比,价值股从来没有这么便宜过。”该公司负责监管1,680亿美元共同基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)的投资策略。布赖特曼预测,未来几年,作为“价值”堡垒的派息公司将获得重大利好。他表示:“未来五年或十年,价值股的估值将‘回归均值’,这意味着它们将通过增长来缩小鸿沟,并在此过程中显著跑赢大盘。”
我们锁定了五只符合四个重要条件的股票:股息生息率至少为4.5%;市盈率约为16或更低,而标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的市盈率约为20;历史上收入稳定;股价下跌与其基本面不符。
黑石集团(Blackstone,股票代码:BX)
股息生息率:5.57%
市盈率:16.8
价格从52周高点下跌:–37%
这家私募股权巨头将其管理的9,410亿美元资产分散在对公司、信贷和保险以及房地产的投资中。但其房地产部门的增长最为显著,并且有望在未来继续提供快速增长的现金流。2021年,黑石集团可分配给股东的78亿美元收益中,有一半多一点来自其各类高回报房地产基金的费用和业绩奖金。
在转向远程工作导致崩溃之前,黑石集团很有先见之明,退出了在美国的大部分办公资产板块,并且在很久以前就抛售了郊区的办公室商场。公寓是该公司在房地产领域的四大“强势主题”之一。其他三个领域的需求也应该保持强劲:为制作流媒体节目的电影制片厂提供空间、生命科学领域租户占用的实验室,以及在数字经济中储存待交付产品的仓库。在最后一个类别中,黑石集团通常拥有最靠近人口密集地区的最好房产,而在这些地区很难获得新许可。
房地产市场的低迷也将带来逢低买入的机会。在过去20年里,一些最好的市盈率回报来自于2008年和2009年创立的基金,当时股价暴跌——黑石集团现在持有1,700亿美元的“基金备用金”。
陶氏公司(Dow Inc.,股票代码:DOW)
股息生息率:6.0%
市盈率:6.0
价格从52周高点下跌:–33%
陶氏公司是2019年初从老陶氏杜邦(DowDuPont)分拆出来的三家子公司中最大的一家。它生产包装、塑料、工业涂料和建筑涂料等基础产品。首席执行官吉姆·菲特林预计,从2022年到2025年,陶氏公司的终端市场将分别增长3.3%和5.5%,平均比新冠疫情前的增速快一个百分点。
然而,陶氏公司的股价正在跌破2019年年末的水平,市盈率只有区区6倍。在过去的四个季度中,该公司创造了66亿美元的丰厚净收入,派发的股息却不到这一数字的三分之一,目前的收益率为6%。因此,陶氏公司在向股东返还资本方面有很大的回旋余地。该公司最近宣布了一项回购30亿美元股票的计划,并在第一季度根据该计划回购了6亿美元股票。24亿美元的基金备用金占其当前估值的7%以上。
美国投资研究公司Alembic Global Advisors的分析师哈桑·艾哈迈德称赞陶氏公司的成本管理非常出色。他说:“该公司将行政管理费用(即销售、综合和管理费用)与同行进行比较,以确保自己在每个类别中都是最高效的。该公司旨在派发高额股息和进行严格运营,而不是为了建立帝国或追求扩张计划。”艾哈迈德补充道,他强烈推荐买入这只股票。“该公司遭受了整个市场动荡的影响。但6%的股息是有保证的。该公司的收入如此强劲,即使在经济衰退的情况下也不会削减。该公司的股票交易价格远低于这样一家公司的应有水平。”随着道琼斯指数(Dow Jones Index)的市盈率达到与盈利和增长相似的工业巨头相当的水平,几乎没有什么选择可以提供比这更好的机会,实现股息增长、大规模回购和巨额资本利得。
Enterprise Products Partners公司(股票代码:EPD)
股息生息率:7.4%
市盈率:11.6
价格从52周高点下跌:–10%
Enterprise Products公司是所谓的“主要有限合伙”。主要有限合伙需要将大部分现金流转给投资者。它们不在合伙企业层面纳税;相反,股东们要对特殊K-1申报中详细列出的纳税负责。潜在投资者应该研究主要有限合伙的税收待遇。但总的来说,股东的主要有限合伙分红纳税额通常低于定期股息纳税额。
Enterprise Products Partners公司是热门能源行业的一个相对安全的赌注,因为它的命运不依赖石油和天然气的价格。它是一家“中游”企业,运营着长达5万英里(约80,467.2千米)的管道网络,将天然气、液化天然气、原油和石化产品从生产商输送到炼油厂、公用事业单位和工厂。该公司具有极低的杠杆率,而且不论是艰难周期,还是平稳周期,都能够产生高额资本回报。对乙烯(用于防冻剂、塑料和溶剂)和丙烯的需求也在不断增长。该公司的联席首席执行官兰迪·福勒对《财富》杂志表示:“在过去十年里,乙烯需求的增长速度是GDP的1.2倍,丙烯需求的增长速度是GDP的1.5倍。”
持之以恒的成果是:连续24年股息增长。
亨廷顿银行(Huntington Bancshares,股票代码:HBAN)
股息生息率:4.5%
市盈率:12.0
价格从52周高点下跌:–24%
亨廷顿银行是一家中型银行,对寻求派息的人来说,它比巨头们更有优势:4.5%的股息生息率远远超过摩根大通(JPMorgan,3.4%)、美国银行(BofA,2.6%)和富国银行(Wells Fargo,2.7%)。亨廷顿银行长期以来一直是密歇根州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州西部的巨头,提供三大主要业务:个人银行业务、汽车贷款和中级市场信贷。去年6月,它通过以60亿美元收购TCF Financial,将业务扩展到明尼阿波利斯、丹佛和芝加哥,扩展到在11个州拥有1,000家分支机构。
Stephens的分析师特里·麦克沃伊说:“亨廷顿银行开创了一种低费用、客户友好的零售银行业务模式。它们拥有出色的客户保留率。”利率上升应该会增加银行的净利息收入——但其收入增长和现金流已经很强劲了。过去四个季度,该公司创造了26亿美元的自由现金流,几乎是用于派息的现金流的三倍。自2017年年底以来,亨廷顿银行的股息几乎翻了一番,并在去年第四季度将股息提高了3%。亨廷顿银行在最近的美联储压力测试中表现良好,这表明它不仅可以维持如此高的股息,而且可能还会增加股息。
Janus Henderson公司(股票代码:JHG)
股息生息率:6.69%
市盈率:7.9
价格从52周高点下跌:–52%
Janus Henderson公司是纳尔逊·佩尔茨的Trian对冲基金试图重振的两家资产管理公司之一,另外一家是景顺投资管理有限公司(Invesco)。这家英国集团是2017年两家中型企业Janus Capital和Henderson Group合并的产物。但工会未能取得成功。自合并以来,Janus Henderson公司管理的资产基本持平在3,000亿美元的范围内。第二季度,Janus公司净流出78亿美元。
作为持有19%股份的股东,佩尔茨正在推动变革:去年年底,联博基金(AllianceBernstein)的前首席财务官阿里·迪巴德吉出任首席执行官,今年2月,佩尔茨和合伙人埃德·加登加入了董事会。佩尔茨和加登还认为,资产管理领域的关键在于规模。因此,Janus公司能够通过与规模相当的竞争对手合并或出售给行业巨头而受益。作为牵线搭桥的人,佩尔茨在这一领域有着出色的业绩。作为美盛集团(Legg Mason)的大投资者,他在2000年将美盛集团出售给富兰克林邓普顿投资公司(Franklin Templeton),在9个月内获得了7,000万美元的收益。
吸引力:虽然Janus公司的利润自合并以来没有增长,但利润很稳定,而且相对于股息和被打压的估值来说,利润非常丰厚。过去四个季度,该公司净利润为5.02亿美元。这是派发给股东的2.6亿美元的近两倍。任何大幅增加管理资产或降低成本的经营改善,都可能引发股息和股价的大幅上涨。和许多中型基金管理公司一样,Janus公司是一个有吸引力的收购对象。(财富中文网)
本文登载于《财富》杂志2022年10/11月刊。
译者:中慧言-王芳
在为股东带来收益的三大方式中——资本利得、回购和股息——长期来看,股息是最有力的贡献者。Hartford Funds公司在最近的一项研究中发现,从1973年到2021年,按季度派息的公司每年录得9.6%的年回报率,打破了不派息公司4.79%的纪录,超过了整体市场8.2%的平均水平。自1930年以来,派息股贡献了40%的股东总收益。然而,在过去15年里,随着市盈率(P/E)的爆炸式增长(主要是由从不派息的科技巨头股价飙升推动的),股息收益所占的比例下降了一半以上,降至15%左右。由于这种下跌趋势,投资者几乎忘记了历史上表现最好的是派息公司。
如今,动荡的环境对那些长跑冠军非常有利。要了解原因,重要的是要分析一下典型的派息公司中坚力量的情况。这些都是成熟的、总体稳定的企业,对资本的投资需求并不大。它们的巅峰成长阶段已经过去。它们收益的最佳用途是将现金转给投资者。派息股的一个标志就是与整体市场相比,它们很便宜,现在的情况更是如此。它们提供相对于股价的高收益,这一方案使它们能够支付巨额收益。Research Affiliates的首席执行官克里斯·布赖特曼说:“与增长相比,价值股从来没有这么便宜过。”该公司负责监管1,680亿美元共同基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)的投资策略。布赖特曼预测,未来几年,作为“价值”堡垒的派息公司将获得重大利好。他表示:“未来五年或十年,价值股的估值将‘回归均值’,这意味着它们将通过增长来缩小鸿沟,并在此过程中显著跑赢大盘。”
我们锁定了五只符合四个重要条件的股票:股息生息率至少为4.5%;市盈率约为16或更低,而标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的市盈率约为20;历史上收入稳定;股价下跌与其基本面不符。
黑石集团(Blackstone,股票代码:BX)
股息生息率:5.57%
市盈率:16.8
价格从52周高点下跌:–37%
这家私募股权巨头将其管理的9,410亿美元资产分散在对公司、信贷和保险以及房地产的投资中。但其房地产部门的增长最为显著,并且有望在未来继续提供快速增长的现金流。2021年,黑石集团可分配给股东的78亿美元收益中,有一半多一点来自其各类高回报房地产基金的费用和业绩奖金。
在转向远程工作导致崩溃之前,黑石集团很有先见之明,退出了在美国的大部分办公资产板块,并且在很久以前就抛售了郊区的办公室商场。公寓是该公司在房地产领域的四大“强势主题”之一。其他三个领域的需求也应该保持强劲:为制作流媒体节目的电影制片厂提供空间、生命科学领域租户占用的实验室,以及在数字经济中储存待交付产品的仓库。在最后一个类别中,黑石集团通常拥有最靠近人口密集地区的最好房产,而在这些地区很难获得新许可。
房地产市场的低迷也将带来逢低买入的机会。在过去20年里,一些最好的市盈率回报来自于2008年和2009年创立的基金,当时股价暴跌——黑石集团现在持有1,700亿美元的“基金备用金”。
陶氏公司(Dow Inc.,股票代码:DOW)
股息生息率:6.0%
市盈率:6.0
价格从52周高点下跌:–33%
陶氏公司是2019年初从老陶氏杜邦(DowDuPont)分拆出来的三家子公司中最大的一家。它生产包装、塑料、工业涂料和建筑涂料等基础产品。首席执行官吉姆·菲特林预计,从2022年到2025年,陶氏公司的终端市场将分别增长3.3%和5.5%,平均比新冠疫情前的增速快一个百分点。
然而,陶氏公司的股价正在跌破2019年年末的水平,市盈率只有区区6倍。在过去的四个季度中,该公司创造了66亿美元的丰厚净收入,派发的股息却不到这一数字的三分之一,目前的收益率为6%。因此,陶氏公司在向股东返还资本方面有很大的回旋余地。该公司最近宣布了一项回购30亿美元股票的计划,并在第一季度根据该计划回购了6亿美元股票。24亿美元的基金备用金占其当前估值的7%以上。
美国投资研究公司Alembic Global Advisors的分析师哈桑·艾哈迈德称赞陶氏公司的成本管理非常出色。他说:“该公司将行政管理费用(即销售、综合和管理费用)与同行进行比较,以确保自己在每个类别中都是最高效的。该公司旨在派发高额股息和进行严格运营,而不是为了建立帝国或追求扩张计划。”艾哈迈德补充道,他强烈推荐买入这只股票。“该公司遭受了整个市场动荡的影响。但6%的股息是有保证的。该公司的收入如此强劲,即使在经济衰退的情况下也不会削减。该公司的股票交易价格远低于这样一家公司的应有水平。”随着道琼斯指数(Dow Jones Index)的市盈率达到与盈利和增长相似的工业巨头相当的水平,几乎没有什么选择可以提供比这更好的机会,实现股息增长、大规模回购和巨额资本利得。
Enterprise Products Partners公司(股票代码:EPD)
股息生息率:7.4%
市盈率:11.6
价格从52周高点下跌:–10%
Enterprise Products公司是所谓的“主要有限合伙”。主要有限合伙需要将大部分现金流转给投资者。它们不在合伙企业层面纳税;相反,股东们要对特殊K-1申报中详细列出的纳税负责。潜在投资者应该研究主要有限合伙的税收待遇。但总的来说,股东的主要有限合伙分红纳税额通常低于定期股息纳税额。
Enterprise Products Partners公司是热门能源行业的一个相对安全的赌注,因为它的命运不依赖石油和天然气的价格。它是一家“中游”企业,运营着长达5万英里(约80,467.2千米)的管道网络,将天然气、液化天然气、原油和石化产品从生产商输送到炼油厂、公用事业单位和工厂。该公司具有极低的杠杆率,而且不论是艰难周期,还是平稳周期,都能够产生高额资本回报。对乙烯(用于防冻剂、塑料和溶剂)和丙烯的需求也在不断增长。该公司的联席首席执行官兰迪·福勒对《财富》杂志表示:“在过去十年里,乙烯需求的增长速度是GDP的1.2倍,丙烯需求的增长速度是GDP的1.5倍。”
持之以恒的成果是:连续24年股息增长。
亨廷顿银行(Huntington Bancshares,股票代码:HBAN)
股息生息率:4.5%
市盈率:12.0
价格从52周高点下跌:–24%
亨廷顿银行是一家中型银行,对寻求派息的人来说,它比巨头们更有优势:4.5%的股息生息率远远超过摩根大通(JPMorgan,3.4%)、美国银行(BofA,2.6%)和富国银行(Wells Fargo,2.7%)。亨廷顿银行长期以来一直是密歇根州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州西部的巨头,提供三大主要业务:个人银行业务、汽车贷款和中级市场信贷。去年6月,它通过以60亿美元收购TCF Financial,将业务扩展到明尼阿波利斯、丹佛和芝加哥,扩展到在11个州拥有1,000家分支机构。
Stephens的分析师特里·麦克沃伊说:“亨廷顿银行开创了一种低费用、客户友好的零售银行业务模式。它们拥有出色的客户保留率。”利率上升应该会增加银行的净利息收入——但其收入增长和现金流已经很强劲了。过去四个季度,该公司创造了26亿美元的自由现金流,几乎是用于派息的现金流的三倍。自2017年年底以来,亨廷顿银行的股息几乎翻了一番,并在去年第四季度将股息提高了3%。亨廷顿银行在最近的美联储压力测试中表现良好,这表明它不仅可以维持如此高的股息,而且可能还会增加股息。
Janus Henderson公司(股票代码:JHG)
股息生息率:6.69%
市盈率:7.9
价格从52周高点下跌:–52%
Janus Henderson公司是纳尔逊·佩尔茨的Trian对冲基金试图重振的两家资产管理公司之一,另外一家是景顺投资管理有限公司(Invesco)。这家英国集团是2017年两家中型企业Janus Capital和Henderson Group合并的产物。但工会未能取得成功。自合并以来,Janus Henderson公司管理的资产基本持平在3,000亿美元的范围内。第二季度,Janus公司净流出78亿美元。
作为持有19%股份的股东,佩尔茨正在推动变革:去年年底,联博基金(AllianceBernstein)的前首席财务官阿里·迪巴德吉出任首席执行官,今年2月,佩尔茨和合伙人埃德·加登加入了董事会。佩尔茨和加登还认为,资产管理领域的关键在于规模。因此,Janus公司能够通过与规模相当的竞争对手合并或出售给行业巨头而受益。作为牵线搭桥的人,佩尔茨在这一领域有着出色的业绩。作为美盛集团(Legg Mason)的大投资者,他在2000年将美盛集团出售给富兰克林邓普顿投资公司(Franklin Templeton),在9个月内获得了7,000万美元的收益。
吸引力:虽然Janus公司的利润自合并以来没有增长,但利润很稳定,而且相对于股息和被打压的估值来说,利润非常丰厚。过去四个季度,该公司净利润为5.02亿美元。这是派发给股东的2.6亿美元的近两倍。任何大幅增加管理资产或降低成本的经营改善,都可能引发股息和股价的大幅上涨。和许多中型基金管理公司一样,Janus公司是一个有吸引力的收购对象。(财富中文网)
本文登载于《财富》杂志2022年10/11月刊。
译者:中慧言-王芳
Of the three vehicles that deliver gains to shareholders—capital gains, buybacks, and dividends—dividends are the most powerful contributor over long periods. In a recent study, Hartford Funds found that from 1973 to 2021, companies that made those quarterly payments furnished annual returns of 9.6% a year, crushing non-payers’ record of 4.79% and beating the overall market average of 8.2%. Since 1930, dividend stocks have provided an outsize 40% of total shareholder gains. Yet in the past 15 years as price/earnings multiples (P/Es) exploded, driven primarily by the soaring prices of tech titans that frequently didn’t pay dividends at all, the share of gains attributable to dividends shrank by over half, to around 15%. As a result of that downtrend, investors pretty much forgot that over history, it’s the dividend payers that perform best.
Today’s tumultuous climate strongly favors those long-distance champions. To understand why, it’s important to analyze the profile of a typical dividend stalwart. These are mature, generally stable businesses that don’t have a big need for capital to invest. Their top growth stage is behind them. The best use of their earnings is channeling the cash to investors. A trademark of dividend stocks is that they’re cheap compared with the overall market, and never more so than today. They offer high earnings relative to their share prices, the formula that enables them to pay chunky yields. “Value has never been this cheap versus growth,” says Chris Brightman, CEO of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees investment strategies for $168 billion in mutual funds and ETFs. Brightman foresees powerful tailwinds for the dividend payers that are the bulwarks of “value” in the years ahead. “Over five or 10 years, the valuations of value stocks will be ‘mean reverting,’ meaning that they’ll close the gulf with growth, and significantly outperform in the process,” he says.
We zeroed in on five stocks that hit four important boxes: a dividend yield of at least 4.5%; a P/E of around 16 or lower (versus around 20 for the S&P 500); a history of consistent earnings; and fourth, beaten-down stock prices not justified by their fundamentals.
Blackstone (BX)
Dividend yield: 5.57%
P/E: 16.8
Price drop from 52-week high: –37%
The private equity giant spreads its $941 billion in assets under management across investments in companies, credit and insurance, and real estate. But it’s the real estate arm that’s showing the most impressive growth, and that promises to keep delivering fast-increasing cash flows in the future. In 2021, Blackstone garnered just over half of the $7.8 billion in earnings available for distribution to shareholders from the fees and performance bonuses on its sundry, high-return property funds.
Blackstone presciently exited most of its office holdings in the U.S. before the meltdown driven by the shift to remote work, and long ago dumped suburban office malls. Apartments are one of its four “highest conviction themes” in real estate. The other three are also specialties in which demand should remain strong: space for film studios that produce programs for streaming; laboratories occupied by tenants in life sciences; and warehouses that store products for delivery in the digital economy. In this last category, Blackstone typically owns the best properties closest to big population centers, where it’s difficult to get new permits.
A real estate downturn will also bring opportunities for bargains. Some of the best P/E returns of the past 20 years flowed from funds that started in 2008 and 2009, when prices cratered—and Blackstone now holds $170 billion in “dry powder.”
Dow Inc. (DOW)
Dividend yield: 6.0%
P/E: 6.0
Price drop from 52-week high: –33%
Dow is the largest of the three units spun off from the old DowDuPont in early 2019. It makes such basic products as packaging, plastics, industrial coatings, and architectural paints. CEO Jim Fitterling predicts that Dow’s end markets will grow at 3.3% and 5.5% from 2022 to 2025, on average a point faster than the pre-COVID rate.
Yet Dow’s share price is languishing below late-2019 levels, resulting in a tiny multiple of six. In the past four quarters, it has generated sumptuous net income of $6.6 billion, and paid out just less than one-third of that figure to provide what’s now a yield of 6%. So Dow has plenty of latitude for returning capital to shareholders. It recently announced a plan to repurchase $3 billion in stock, and did $600 million in buybacks under the program in Q1. The $2.4 billion in dry powder represents over 7% of its current valuation.
Analyst Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global Advisors praises Dow for excellent cost management. “They benchmark SG&A [selling, general, and administrative expenses] to their peers to ensure they’re among the most efficient in every category,” he says. “They’re all about paying a chunky dividend and tightly running operations, not about empire building or pursuing expansion plans.” The stock, he adds, is screaming buy. “They’ve suffered from the overall skittish market,” he says. “But the 6% dividend is guaranteed. Their earnings are so strong that it won’t be cut even in the event of a recession. It’s trading at multiples far below where a name like this should be trading.” Few choices offer a better opportunity for a blend of rising dividends, big buybacks, and large capital gains as Dow’s multiple rises to match the P/Es of industrial giants with similar earnings and growth.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)
Dividend yield: 7.4%
P/E: 11.6
Price drop from 52-week high: –10%
Enterprise Products is what’s called a “master limited partnership.” MLPs are required to channel a large share of their cash flow to investors. They don’t pay tax at the partnership level; instead, the shareholders are responsible for the levies detailed in special K-1 filings. Potential investors should study the tax treatment of MLPs. But in general, shareholders often pay lower taxes on MLP distributions than on regular dividends.
EPD is a relatively safe bet on the hot energy sector because its fortunes aren’t dependent on the price of oil and gas. It’s a “midstream” player that operates a network of pipelines covering 50,000 miles that transport natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and petrochemical products from producers to refineries, utilities, and plants. It features extremely low leverage, and generates high returns on capital through rough and smooth cycles. And there’s growing demand for ethylene (used in antifreeze, plastics, and solvents) and propylene. “Over the past 10 years, ethylene demand has grown at 1.2 times GDP, and propylene has increased at 1.5 times,” co-CEO Randy Fowler told Fortune.
The fruits of that consistency: 24 straight years of increasing dividends.
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Dividend yield: 4.5%
P/E: 12.0
Price drop from 52-week high: –24%
Huntington is a midsize bank that for dividend seekers enjoys an advantage over the Goliaths: Its 4.5% dividend yield far exceeds those of JPMorgan (3.4%), BofA (2.6%), and Wells Fargo (2.7%). Huntington has long been a powerhouse in Michigan, Ohio, and Western Pennsylvania, offering three main lines: consumer banking, auto lending, and middle market credit. Last June, it expanded into Minneapolis, Denver, and Chicago via the $6 billion acquisition of TCF Financial, growing its network to 1,000 branches across 11 states.
“Huntington pioneered a low-fee, customer-friendly model for retail banking,” says Terry McEvoy, an analyst at Stephens. “They have excellent customer retention.” Rising rates should swell the bank’s net interest income—but its revenue growth and cash flows are already robust. Over the past four quarters, it’s churned $2.6 billion in free cash flow, almost three times the dollars flowing to dividends. Huntington has almost doubled its dividend since late 2017, and raised the payout 3% in Q4 of last year. Huntington fared well in the recent Fed stress tests, suggesting it can not only maintain that big dividend, but probably also grow it.
Janus Henderson (JHG)
Dividend yield: 6.69%
P/E: 7.9
Price drop from 52-week high: –52%
Janus Henderson is one of two asset managers (along with Invesco) that Nelson Peltz’s Trian hedge fund is attempting to revive. The British group is the product of the 2017 merger of two midsize players, Janus Capital and Henderson Group. But the union failed to pay off. Since the merger, Janus Henderson’s assets under management have pretty much flatlined in the $300 billion range. In Q2, Janus suffered $7.8 billion in net outflows.
As a 19% stakeholder, Peltz is pushing for change: Late last year, a new CEO, Ali Dibadj, former CFO of ?AllianceBernstein, took charge, and in February, Peltz and partner Ed Garden joined the board. Peltz and Garden also believe that the asset management space is all about scale. Hence Janus could benefit either from uniting with a like-size rival or selling to an industry giant. Peltz has a strong record as a matchmaker in the field. As a big investor in Legg Mason, he orchestrated its sale to Franklin Templeton in 2000, reaping a $70 million gain in nine months.
The attraction: Though Janus’s profits haven’t grown since the merger, they’re stable—and extremely large relative to both the dividend and beaten-down valuation. In the past four quarters, it’s posted net profits of $502 million. That’s nearly twice the $260 million it paid to shareholders. Any improvement in operations that substantially raises assets under management or lowers costs could ignite a big rise in both dividends and the stock price. And like many midsize money managers, Janus is an appealing takeover candidate?
This article appears in the October/November 2022 issue of Fortune.