你或许一直在观望,不知道什么时候进入市场才是安全的。你或许一直担心在股市下跌的时候,变成接盘侠,就像俗话说的“接落下来的刀子”。事实上,这可能是投资者最艰难的决定之一:既想在股票估值下跌时抄底,又知道你可能永远把握不准股市触底的时机。为此,我们采访了三位知名专家,向他们请教了2023年的投资方向和方式。令人意外的是,这三位专家对于现在如何投资25,000美元,给出了截然不同的建议。
专家的建议假设的流动性相对有限,并且投资期限约为七年。他们提到在确定投资方式和方向时,需要考虑通胀、利率上浮等多个因素。我们采访的所有专家都建议在进行任何投资之前要预留“雨天资金”,并选择多样化的“投资之后无需理会”的投资组合。致力于指导女性投资的金融教育公司Dow Janes的创始人布里特·贝克表示:“在进行投资时最重要的因素是时间。我们鼓励人们投资指数基金和目标日期基金;理想情况下应该投资10年以上。只要你能与市场趋势保持一致,就能获得丰厚回报。”
2023年的投资对象
希瑟·卢米斯·泰伊
风险资本顾问与合伙人以及家族理财办公室战略顾问(前贝莱德(BlackRock)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)执行董事)
泰伊警告,美国正在反复逼近她所说的“投资的百慕大三角”,那就是滞胀。虽然在这种情况下,常见的建议是避免投资大宗商品(黄金、白银、房地产),但泰伊认为她推荐的投资策略,有助于提高灵活性,对冲利率上浮,并增加对增长性行业的投资。
她表示:“有一种说法是现金为王。我会将35%的资金投入市政资金市场和短期市政债券,可以获得2%至3.5%的联邦税收减免。”泰伊表示每个月会将4%的资金投入多样化股票市场,持续六个月,11%的资金作为现金和投入市政债券,六个月后平均投入到股票市场。然后她推荐了iBond,这是一种联邦政府担保债券投资,其利率会与通胀同步。目前,iBond的回报率约为9%,接近长期股票投资的回报率。
最后,泰伊还推荐标普500交易所交易基金。她尤其关注投资生物科技和云计算领域的基金,尤其是SPDR标普生物科技ETF(SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)(交易代码:XBI)和智慧树云计算基金(Wisdom Tree Cloud Computing Fund)(交易代码:WCLD),这是她首选的成长型基金。她表示:“我认为这些行业有巨大的需求。云计算是通过互联网交付的软件、分析和情报。所有公司都需要这类软件,并且它们会成为公司业务的核心,而且我们目前还在转型的起步阶段。”泰伊表示,生物科技板块也有强大的利好消息,因为随着人口老龄化,面对老年疾病和慢性病,生物科技领域将出现惊人创新,而当消费者的身心健康面临风险时,他们会愿意支付这种钢性支出。
大卫·利瓦伊
布鲁克菲尔德橡树财富解决方案(Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions)主理合伙人
利瓦伊认为最佳投资对象是不动产。在私营市场和股票债券市场,房地产、基础设施和可再生能源电力为投资者提供了一种不错的另类投资策略。利瓦伊的公司管理的另类投资项目规模达到8,000亿美元。他表示:“考虑到目前的宏观经济环境,我认为60/40的投资组合配置是不够的。增加另类投资变得更加重要。”
寻找一家投资上市基建项目的共同基金,能够有效对冲通胀,这类基金与股市的关联性相对较弱,有助于制定一种防御性的投资策略。利瓦伊推荐的是布鲁克菲尔德全球上市基建基金(Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund)。利瓦伊认为,随着全球力争脱碳,可再生能源、电力公司、交通和通信基础设施等领域,成为橡树财富重点投资的子行业。他表示:“我们的投资对象具有基础设施的稳定特征,有稳定的现金流和一定的通胀对冲作用。它们都有宏观经济方面的利好消息。”
在房地产行业,利瓦伊看好布鲁克菲尔德房地产收益信托(Income Trust)投资组合的多样化,他表示橡树财富每天都在按照类似的比例配置资金。“我们在许多领域看到了机会,尤其是美国的高增长市场中,例如多户住宅、公寓建筑、学生住房等。”随着租金上涨,这笔收入将变得更有意义。利瓦伊表示:“现在人们需要选择多样化的投资组合,在这个时期,人们需要投资组合具有对冲通胀的效果。一年前,我可能会有额外收入,但现在这已经发生了改变。”
路易斯·弗洛郎坦-李
拉扎德资产管理公司(Lazard Asset Management)投资组合经理,拉扎德国际优质增长投资组合(Lazard International Quality Growth Portfolio)
在目前的市场环境中,如果你有意投资个股,弗洛郎坦-李建议考虑三个因素:定价权、杠杆和弹性。他表示:“你需要确定公司的定价权,因为公司拥有定价权,就能转嫁上涨的成本,避免可怕的盈利能力下降。前提是他们能够为客户创造真正的附加价值。”此外,如果公司过度负债并且无法生成足够现金维持自筹资金发展,利率上浮将令这些公司面临灭顶之灾。当然,在评估一家公司的投资潜力时,还需要考虑该公司在以往经济下滑周期的表现。
弗洛郎坦-李认为IT是每个行业每家公司都需要考虑的一个战略性领域。他表示:“这些决策现在被摆上了CEO们的案头。我需要将业务转移到云平台。我需要可靠的照片安全保障政策。我如何看待人工智能?”弗洛郎坦-李认为埃森哲(Accenture)符合这三个条件。埃森哲有独特的优势,因为该公司与《财富》500强公司的许多高管建立了长期关系,而且公司能够参与大量改造项目,为客户重新布置和改造技术系统,并且积累了丰富经验。
弗洛郎坦-李看好的另外一家公司是RELX(纽约证券交易所交易代码:RELX),该公司40%的业务来自科技和医学学术期刊。他说道:“学术期刊是很好的业务;它们对学者至关重要,决定了他们下一个研究项目如何获得资金,代表了最优秀的科学思想。而且,它们在高校支出中所占的比例较小。期刊的续订率达到90%,营业利润率为25%至30%。”此外,RELX有一项高风险业务,为保险公司提供至关重要的事故索赔数据。事实上,该公司拥有美国最大的索赔数据库,而保险公司只需要付出少量成本,还可能获得附加服务,例如无索赔折扣和综合保单报告。弗洛郎坦-李表示:“他们的业务都是客户绝对不可或缺的,这是一重可靠的保障。”
弗洛郎坦-李提供的最后一条建议是选择在一个小众行业占主导地位的公司。他表示:“小众市场决定了大公司不太可能进入这个行业。”他推荐哪家公司?东映动画(TYO:4816)。这家日本公司拥有许多业内最优秀的IP,并且能够利用其在日本电视行业的知名度进军游戏行业,为公司创造收入。 “该公司的利润率很高;育碧(Ubisoft)或者另外一家同行制作游戏,而东映动画只需要许可版权,其利润率几乎达到100%。这家公司并没有引起大多数人的关注。”(财富中文网)
本文为《财富》杂志2022年第4季度投资指南的一部分。
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
你或许一直在观望,不知道什么时候进入市场才是安全的。你或许一直担心在股市下跌的时候,变成接盘侠,就像俗话说的“接落下来的刀子”。事实上,这可能是投资者最艰难的决定之一:既想在股票估值下跌时抄底,又知道你可能永远把握不准股市触底的时机。为此,我们采访了三位知名专家,向他们请教了2023年的投资方向和方式。令人意外的是,这三位专家对于现在如何投资25,000美元,给出了截然不同的建议。
专家的建议假设的流动性相对有限,并且投资期限约为七年。他们提到在确定投资方式和方向时,需要考虑通胀、利率上浮等多个因素。我们采访的所有专家都建议在进行任何投资之前要预留“雨天资金”,并选择多样化的“投资之后无需理会”的投资组合。致力于指导女性投资的金融教育公司Dow Janes的创始人布里特·贝克表示:“在进行投资时最重要的因素是时间。我们鼓励人们投资指数基金和目标日期基金;理想情况下应该投资10年以上。只要你能与市场趋势保持一致,就能获得丰厚回报。”
2023年的投资对象
希瑟·卢米斯·泰伊
风险资本顾问与合伙人以及家族理财办公室战略顾问(前贝莱德(BlackRock)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)执行董事)
泰伊警告,美国正在反复逼近她所说的“投资的百慕大三角”,那就是滞胀。虽然在这种情况下,常见的建议是避免投资大宗商品(黄金、白银、房地产),但泰伊认为她推荐的投资策略,有助于提高灵活性,对冲利率上浮,并增加对增长性行业的投资。
她表示:“有一种说法是现金为王。我会将35%的资金投入市政资金市场和短期市政债券,可以获得2%至3.5%的联邦税收减免。”泰伊表示每个月会将4%的资金投入多样化股票市场,持续六个月,11%的资金作为现金和投入市政债券,六个月后平均投入到股票市场。然后她推荐了iBond,这是一种联邦政府担保债券投资,其利率会与通胀同步。目前,iBond的回报率约为9%,接近长期股票投资的回报率。
最后,泰伊还推荐标普500交易所交易基金。她尤其关注投资生物科技和云计算领域的基金,尤其是SPDR标普生物科技ETF(SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)(交易代码:XBI)和智慧树云计算基金(Wisdom Tree Cloud Computing Fund)(交易代码:WCLD),这是她首选的成长型基金。她表示:“我认为这些行业有巨大的需求。云计算是通过互联网交付的软件、分析和情报。所有公司都需要这类软件,并且它们会成为公司业务的核心,而且我们目前还在转型的起步阶段。”泰伊表示,生物科技板块也有强大的利好消息,因为随着人口老龄化,面对老年疾病和慢性病,生物科技领域将出现惊人创新,而当消费者的身心健康面临风险时,他们会愿意支付这种钢性支出。
大卫·利瓦伊
布鲁克菲尔德橡树财富解决方案(Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions)主理合伙人
利瓦伊认为最佳投资对象是不动产。在私营市场和股票债券市场,房地产、基础设施和可再生能源电力为投资者提供了一种不错的另类投资策略。利瓦伊的公司管理的另类投资项目规模达到8,000亿美元。他表示:“考虑到目前的宏观经济环境,我认为60/40的投资组合配置是不够的。增加另类投资变得更加重要。”
寻找一家投资上市基建项目的共同基金,能够有效对冲通胀,这类基金与股市的关联性相对较弱,有助于制定一种防御性的投资策略。利瓦伊推荐的是布鲁克菲尔德全球上市基建基金(Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund)。利瓦伊认为,随着全球力争脱碳,可再生能源、电力公司、交通和通信基础设施等领域,成为橡树财富重点投资的子行业。他表示:“我们的投资对象具有基础设施的稳定特征,有稳定的现金流和一定的通胀对冲作用。它们都有宏观经济方面的利好消息。”
在房地产行业,利瓦伊看好布鲁克菲尔德房地产收益信托(Income Trust)投资组合的多样化,他表示橡树财富每天都在按照类似的比例配置资金。“我们在许多领域看到了机会,尤其是美国的高增长市场中,例如多户住宅、公寓建筑、学生住房等。”随着租金上涨,这笔收入将变得更有意义。利瓦伊表示:“现在人们需要选择多样化的投资组合,在这个时期,人们需要投资组合具有对冲通胀的效果。一年前,我可能会有额外收入,但现在这已经发生了改变。”
路易斯·弗洛郎坦-李
拉扎德资产管理公司(Lazard Asset Management)投资组合经理,拉扎德国际优质增长投资组合(Lazard International Quality Growth Portfolio)
在目前的市场环境中,如果你有意投资个股,弗洛郎坦-李建议考虑三个因素:定价权、杠杆和弹性。他表示:“你需要确定公司的定价权,因为公司拥有定价权,就能转嫁上涨的成本,避免可怕的盈利能力下降。前提是他们能够为客户创造真正的附加价值。”此外,如果公司过度负债并且无法生成足够现金维持自筹资金发展,利率上浮将令这些公司面临灭顶之灾。当然,在评估一家公司的投资潜力时,还需要考虑该公司在以往经济下滑周期的表现。
弗洛郎坦-李认为IT是每个行业每家公司都需要考虑的一个战略性领域。他表示:“这些决策现在被摆上了CEO们的案头。我需要将业务转移到云平台。我需要可靠的照片安全保障政策。我如何看待人工智能?”弗洛郎坦-李认为埃森哲(Accenture)符合这三个条件。埃森哲有独特的优势,因为该公司与《财富》500强公司的许多高管建立了长期关系,而且公司能够参与大量改造项目,为客户重新布置和改造技术系统,并且积累了丰富经验。
弗洛郎坦-李看好的另外一家公司是RELX(纽约证券交易所交易代码:RELX),该公司40%的业务来自科技和医学学术期刊。他说道:“学术期刊是很好的业务;它们对学者至关重要,决定了他们下一个研究项目如何获得资金,代表了最优秀的科学思想。而且,它们在高校支出中所占的比例较小。期刊的续订率达到90%,营业利润率为25%至30%。”此外,RELX有一项高风险业务,为保险公司提供至关重要的事故索赔数据。事实上,该公司拥有美国最大的索赔数据库,而保险公司只需要付出少量成本,还可能获得附加服务,例如无索赔折扣和综合保单报告。弗洛郎坦-李表示:“他们的业务都是客户绝对不可或缺的,这是一重可靠的保障。”
弗洛郎坦-李提供的最后一条建议是选择在一个小众行业占主导地位的公司。他表示:“小众市场决定了大公司不太可能进入这个行业。”他推荐哪家公司?东映动画(TYO:4816)。这家日本公司拥有许多业内最优秀的IP,并且能够利用其在日本电视行业的知名度进军游戏行业,为公司创造收入。 “该公司的利润率很高;育碧(Ubisoft)或者另外一家同行制作游戏,而东映动画只需要许可版权,其利润率几乎达到100%。这家公司并没有引起大多数人的关注。”(财富中文网)
本文为《财富》杂志2022年第4季度投资指南的一部分。
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Maybe you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, wondering when it’s safe to jump back into the markets. Maybe you’ve been terrified of, as the old saying goes, trying to “catch a falling knife” as stocks plunge. Indeed, that’s one of the hardest bets to make as investor—diving in when valuations are down, but knowing that you can probably never accurately time the bottom. With that in mind, we canvassed three top experts on where and how to put your money to work in 2023. Surprisingly, the three offered very different advice on how they’d deploy $25,000 right now.
Our panel’s advice assumes relatively limited liquidity and an investment period of roughly seven years, and points to a number of factors from inflation to rising interest rates that should inform how and where you deploy your money. Still, all of the experts we spoke to advised having a “rainy-day fund” and a catch-all “set it and forget it” portfolio on hand before making any investments. “When it comes to investing, the most important element is time,” says Brit Baker, founder of Dow Janes, a financial education company focused on teaching women to invest. “We encourage people to invest in index funds and target date funds; the ideal is that they’re invested for 10-plus years. If you can match the market, you’re better off.”
Where to invest in 2023
Heather Loomis Tighe
Venture Capital Adviser and Partner and Strategic Adviser to Family Offices (Former Managing Director at BlackRock and JPMorgan)
Tighe warns that the U.S. is flirting with what she calls “the Bermuda Triangle of investing”: stagflation. While typical advice for a period like this is to steer your investments toward commodities (gold, silver, real estate), Tighe suggests a strategy that she says bolsters flexibility, hedges against rising interest rates, and doubles down on industries she views as growth sectors.
“There is an expression, cash is king,” says Tighe. “I would hold 35% in a municipal money market and short dated municipal bonds paying 2 to 3.5% exempt from federal taxes.” Tighe says to take 4% of the position every month for six months and drop it into diversified equity markets, leaving 11% in cash and municipal bonds, averaging into the equity markets after six months. Next, she recommends iBonds, or federally guaranteed bond investments with an interest rate that resets with inflation. Right now, iBonds are paying roughly 9%, which is just about what you can expect to get paid on a long-term investment in stocks.
Lastly, Tighe likes S&P 500 exchange-traded funds. She is particularly focused on funds built in biotech and cloud computing, specifically calling out SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (Ticker: XBI) and Wisdom Tree Cloud Computing Fund (Ticker: WCLD) as top picks for growth. “I see a strong need for both of these sectors,” she says. “Cloud computing is software, analytics, intelligence, all delivered over the internet. All companies will need this type of software as the backbone of their enterprises, and we are at the beginning stages of that transition.” Similarly, biotech has some strong tailwinds, says Tighe, given that as the aging population faces disease and chronic illness, there’s tremendous innovation in the space and a consumer commitment to inelastic spending when health and well-being are on the line.
David Levi
Managing partner, Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions
For Levi, the sweet spot sits with real assets. Real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power in both private markets and the stock and bond market offer investors a sound alternative investment strategy. “Today given the macroeconomic environment, I’d argue the 60/40 portfolio isn’t sufficient,” says Levi, whose firm manages $800 billion in alternative investments. “Adding alternatives is more important than ever.”
Looking for a mutual fund that invests in listed infrastructure can be an excellent inflation hedge, related less to broad equity markets and helping to build out a defensive investment strategy. Levi’s pick is Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund. As the world moves toward decarbonization, says Levi, renewables, utilities, and transportation and communication infrastructure have become subsectors the folks at Oaktree truly zero in on. “We invest in things that have the stable characteristics of infrastructure with stable cash flows and some inflation hedge,” he says. “They have a huge macro tailwind.”
In terms of real estate, Levi likes the diversity of the Brookfield Real Estate Income Trust and notes that Oaktree is deploying capital similarly every day. “We see opportunities in a number of different ways: multifamily, apartment buildings, student housing, especially in higher-growth markets in the U.S.” As rents increase, that income will become more meaningful. Says Levi: “Right now, people need to diversify their broader portfolio and they need something that in this period has an inflation hedge embedded in it. A year ago, I might have added income, but that’s changed.”
Louis Florentin-Lee
Portfolio manager, Lazard Asset Management, Lazard International Quality Growth Portfolio
In the current market environment, if you’re interested in betting on individual stocks, there are three factors to consider says Florentin-Lee: pricing power, leverage, and resilience. “You need to be sure about a company’s pricing power, that it will give them the ability to pass on the cost inflation and avoid a nasty profitability crunch,” he says. “They can only do that if they are adding real value to their customers.” Additionally, rising interest rates have the potential to kill companies that are overleveraged and can’t generate enough cash to self-fund growth. And, of course, a company’s history of riding out past downturns should also factor into its potential for investment.
Florentin-Lee sees IT as a strategic consideration for every business, in every industry. “Those decisions are now moving to the CEO’s desk,” he says. “I need to move my business to the cloud. I need a bullet-proof photo security policy. How am I thinking about artificial intelligence?” Accenture (NYSE:ACN), says Florentin-Lee, hits all three of those notes. The company sits in a unique position given its long-term relationships with major Fortune 500 C-suites, as well as access to and experience with massive transformational projects to rewire and reinvent technological systems for clients.
RELX (NYSE: RELX) is another business Florentin-Lee is keen on, as it garners 40% of its business from academic journals in science, technology, and medicine. “Journals are amazing businesses; they are critical to academics and how they get their next research projects funded, representing the best scientific minds,” he says. “And they represent a tiny proportion of a university’s cost space. The renewal rates are well into the 90% with 25 to 30% operating margin.” Additionally, RELX operates in the risk business, providing absolutely critical accident claim data to insurance companies. In fact, it owns the largest database of claims in the U.S., at, once again, a small cost to the insurance providers, with the possibility of add-ons like no-claim discounts and integrated police reports. Says Florentin-Lee: “They are building this wonderful moat around their business that their clients absolutely have to have.”
Florentin-Lee’s final bit of advice is to choose a business that’s dominating a niche industry. “The fact that it’s niche makes it less likely that a huge player will enter the space,” he says. His pick? Toei Animation (TYO:4816). The Japanese company owns what many consider the best IP in the space and has been able to monetize its popularity on Japanese television into gaming. “It’s incredibly high margins; Ubisoft or another company like it makes the game, Toei just licenses the rights, and it’s an almost 100% margin business for them. That sits under the radar for most people.”
This article is part of Fortune’s quarterly investment guide for Q4 2022.