受美元汇率飙升影响,在许多已经面临历史性全球粮食危机的国家,粮价进一步走高,从亚洲到非洲,粮食进口商都在争先恐后地寻找美元以便支付粮食进口费用。
在加纳,当地进口商警告说,圣诞节前粮食将出现短缺;在巴基斯坦,数千个满载粮食的集装箱堆满了各大港口;在埃及,因小麦滞留海关,面粉厂存货耗尽,私人面包师已经提高面包价格。
纵观全球,那些依赖粮食进口的国家都在努力拆解由高利率、美元飙升和大宗商品价格上涨“打来”的组合拳,在购买那些通常以美元定价的商品时,此类国家的支付能力已经受到影响。在许多情况下,外汇储备不断减少让美元变得越发稀缺、难以获得,银行的放款速度也略显迟缓。
农业巨头嘉吉公司(Cargill Inc.)的全球贸易主管亚历克斯·桑费利乌说:"粮食已经成了他们负担不起的奢侈品,同样的故事正在全球许多地方上演。"
对其中许多国家而言,相关问题并非最近才出现,也非仅限于农产品领域,只是在俄乌战争爆发之后,购买力下降加之美元短缺导致全球粮食系统承受了更大压力。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称,本轮粮食危机的严重程度至少将达到2007至2008年的水平。美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦呼吁各方向最脆弱群体提供更多粮食援助。而世界粮食计划署(World Food Programme)则表示,世界正面临现代史上最大粮食危机。
成本上升、资本缩水加上难以获得确保海关按时放行所需的美元,许多进口商已是疲于应对。这种情况如果持续,则意味着货物将会滞留在港口,甚至可能会转运他处。
专门研究非洲和大宗商品市场的咨询师泰德·乔治说:“支付此类款项历来都有压力,只是现在已经变成了不可承受之重。”
今年以来,加纳塞地对美元汇率已下跌约44%,成为全球表现第二差的货币,有人担心,该国圣诞节前的商品供应或会出现问题。
加纳进出口商协会执行秘书萨姆森·阿萨基·阿温格比特说:“我们认为,部分食品将会出现短缺。美元蚕食着塞地的币值,而我们对此完全无能为力。”
可以肯定的是,一些国家可以通过使用欧元等货币购买所需商品获得一定缓冲,能源出口国也能从海外收入中获益。 全球粮食商品成本已连续六个月下降,给消费者带来了缓解压力的希望。
但联合国粮食及农业组织(United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization)的经济学家莫妮卡·托托娃表示,美元飙升或将蚕食上述部分利好,该组织认为,今年全球粮食进口支出将达到历史最高水平。
当前粮食安全形势依然颇为严峻。随着俄乌战事升级,各方对黑海地区粮食供应的担忧再度加剧,此外,有关从乌克兰港口运出谷物的协议未来能否得到执行也存在疑问。最近几个月,受异常天气影响,粮食价格波动加剧,粮食库存处于较低水平,化肥、能源价格飙升推高了粮食生产成本。
国际货币基金组织在本周的全球展望中表示,随着美联储继续收紧货币政策,美元相对新兴市场和发展中国家货币的强势将进一步推高通货膨胀和债务压力。
巴基斯坦谷物协会(Cereal Association of Pakistan)主席穆扎米勒·拉乌夫·查帕尔称,在洪水肆虐的巴基斯坦,为防止外汇外流,政府采取了一系列措施,导致装满粮食(如鹰嘴豆及其他豆类)的集装箱上个月堆满了各大港口,推动粮食价格大幅走高。
在该国任命了新的财政部长后,情况有所缓解,该部长承诺为因银行间市场美元短缺而迟迟未清算的企业清算未决交易。
查帕尔(其领导的公司是该国最大的私营小麦进口商)说:“情况相当危险,我们认为,巴基斯坦将迎来一场严重的粮食危机。”
在全球最大的小麦进口国之一——埃及,小麦短缺问题一直困扰私营面粉工厂,其供货的面包房不在该国补贴计划的覆盖范围之内。
据该国谷物工业协会(Chamber of Cereal Industry)称,自上月初以来,约有70万吨谷物滞留在该国港口,受此影响,该国约80%的磨坊已经因“无麦可磨”关门歇业。埃及供应部门10月12日表示,将向私营磨坊和私营面食厂提供小麦和面粉。
据桑费利乌(供职于嘉吉公司)预计,未来数月,由于发展中国家难以支付粮食与饲料费用,全球小麦贸易量将缩减6%,玉米和豆粕贸易量将缩减3%。
梅格纳工业集团(Meghna Group of Industries,一家孟加拉国商业集团)采购负责人塔斯里姆·沙里亚尔表示,受美元走强影响,小麦进口成本至少将飙升20%,受此影响,该集团或将不得不缩减其在战争爆发前制定的小麦进口计划。
沙里亚尔说:“汇率波动给公司带来了巨大损失,我们以前从未见过这种情况。”(财富中文网)
-本文在撰写过程中得到了阿伦·德夫纳特(Arun Devnath)、阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫·瓦巴(Abdel Latif Wahba)、阿桑塔·西里曼纳(Asantha Sirimanne)、塔索·维罗索·里贝罗(Tarso Veloso Ribeiro)、苏海尔·卡拉姆(Souhail Karam)、卡塔琳娜·海耶(Katarina Hoije)、阿玛·塔诺(Ama Tanoh)和埃迪·斯彭斯(Eddie Spence)的帮助。
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
受美元汇率飙升影响,在许多已经面临历史性全球粮食危机的国家,粮价进一步走高,从亚洲到非洲,粮食进口商都在争先恐后地寻找美元以便支付粮食进口费用。
在加纳,当地进口商警告说,圣诞节前粮食将出现短缺;在巴基斯坦,数千个满载粮食的集装箱堆满了各大港口;在埃及,因小麦滞留海关,面粉厂存货耗尽,私人面包师已经提高面包价格。
纵观全球,那些依赖粮食进口的国家都在努力拆解由高利率、美元飙升和大宗商品价格上涨“打来”的组合拳,在购买那些通常以美元定价的商品时,此类国家的支付能力已经受到影响。在许多情况下,外汇储备不断减少让美元变得越发稀缺、难以获得,银行的放款速度也略显迟缓。
农业巨头嘉吉公司(Cargill Inc.)的全球贸易主管亚历克斯·桑费利乌说:"粮食已经成了他们负担不起的奢侈品,同样的故事正在全球许多地方上演。"
对其中许多国家而言,相关问题并非最近才出现,也非仅限于农产品领域,只是在俄乌战争爆发之后,购买力下降加之美元短缺导致全球粮食系统承受了更大压力。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称,本轮粮食危机的严重程度至少将达到2007至2008年的水平。美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦呼吁各方向最脆弱群体提供更多粮食援助。而世界粮食计划署(World Food Programme)则表示,世界正面临现代史上最大粮食危机。
成本上升、资本缩水加上难以获得确保海关按时放行所需的美元,许多进口商已是疲于应对。这种情况如果持续,则意味着货物将会滞留在港口,甚至可能会转运他处。
专门研究非洲和大宗商品市场的咨询师泰德·乔治说:“支付此类款项历来都有压力,只是现在已经变成了不可承受之重。”
今年以来,加纳塞地对美元汇率已下跌约44%,成为全球表现第二差的货币,有人担心,该国圣诞节前的商品供应或会出现问题。
加纳进出口商协会执行秘书萨姆森·阿萨基·阿温格比特说:“我们认为,部分食品将会出现短缺。美元蚕食着塞地的币值,而我们对此完全无能为力。”
可以肯定的是,一些国家可以通过使用欧元等货币购买所需商品获得一定缓冲,能源出口国也能从海外收入中获益。 全球粮食商品成本已连续六个月下降,给消费者带来了缓解压力的希望。
但联合国粮食及农业组织(United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization)的经济学家莫妮卡·托托娃表示,美元飙升或将蚕食上述部分利好,该组织认为,今年全球粮食进口支出将达到历史最高水平。
当前粮食安全形势依然颇为严峻。随着俄乌战事升级,各方对黑海地区粮食供应的担忧再度加剧,此外,有关从乌克兰港口运出谷物的协议未来能否得到执行也存在疑问。最近几个月,受异常天气影响,粮食价格波动加剧,粮食库存处于较低水平,化肥、能源价格飙升推高了粮食生产成本。
国际货币基金组织在本周的全球展望中表示,随着美联储继续收紧货币政策,美元相对新兴市场和发展中国家货币的强势将进一步推高通货膨胀和债务压力。
巴基斯坦谷物协会(Cereal Association of Pakistan)主席穆扎米勒·拉乌夫·查帕尔称,在洪水肆虐的巴基斯坦,为防止外汇外流,政府采取了一系列措施,导致装满粮食(如鹰嘴豆及其他豆类)的集装箱上个月堆满了各大港口,推动粮食价格大幅走高。
在该国任命了新的财政部长后,情况有所缓解,该部长承诺为因银行间市场美元短缺而迟迟未清算的企业清算未决交易。
查帕尔(其领导的公司是该国最大的私营小麦进口商)说:“情况相当危险,我们认为,巴基斯坦将迎来一场严重的粮食危机。”
在全球最大的小麦进口国之一——埃及,小麦短缺问题一直困扰私营面粉工厂,其供货的面包房不在该国补贴计划的覆盖范围之内。
据该国谷物工业协会(Chamber of Cereal Industry)称,自上月初以来,约有70万吨谷物滞留在该国港口,受此影响,该国约80%的磨坊已经因“无麦可磨”关门歇业。埃及供应部门10月12日表示,将向私营磨坊和私营面食厂提供小麦和面粉。
据桑费利乌(供职于嘉吉公司)预计,未来数月,由于发展中国家难以支付粮食与饲料费用,全球小麦贸易量将缩减6%,玉米和豆粕贸易量将缩减3%。
梅格纳工业集团(Meghna Group of Industries,一家孟加拉国商业集团)采购负责人塔斯里姆·沙里亚尔表示,受美元走强影响,小麦进口成本至少将飙升20%,受此影响,该集团或将不得不缩减其在战争爆发前制定的小麦进口计划。
沙里亚尔说:“汇率波动给公司带来了巨大损失,我们以前从未见过这种情况。”(财富中文网)
-本文在撰写过程中得到了阿伦·德夫纳特(Arun Devnath)、阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫·瓦巴(Abdel Latif Wahba)、阿桑塔·西里曼纳(Asantha Sirimanne)、塔索·维罗索·里贝罗(Tarso Veloso Ribeiro)、苏海尔·卡拉姆(Souhail Karam)、卡塔琳娜·海耶(Katarina Hoije)、阿玛·塔诺(Ama Tanoh)和埃迪·斯彭斯(Eddie Spence)的帮助。
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
Food importers from Africa to Asia are scrambling for dollars to pay their bills as a surge in the US currency drives prices even higher for countries already facing a historic global food crisis.
In Ghana, importers are warning about shortages in the run up to Christmas. Thousands of containers loaded with food recently piled up at ports in Pakistan, while private bakers in Egypt raised bread prices after some flour mills ran out of wheat because it was stranded at customs.
Around the world, countries that rely on food imports are grappling with a destructive combination of high interest rates, a soaring dollar and elevated commodity prices, eroding their power to pay for goods that are typically priced in the greenback. Dwindling foreign-currency reserves in many cases has reduced access to dollars, and banks are slow in releasing payments.
“They cannot afford it, they cannot pay for these commodities,” said Alex Sanfeliu, world trading head for crop giant Cargill Inc. “It’s happening in many parts of the world.”
The problem isn’t a new one for many of the countries — nor is it limited to agricultural commodities — but the reduced purchasing power and dollar shortages are compounding wider strains across global food systems following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a catastrophe at least as severe as the food emergency in 2007-08, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for more food aid for the most vulnerable, while the World Food Programme says the globe is facing its largest food crisis in modern history.
On the ground, many importers are struggling with rising costs, shrinking capital and difficulty in obtaining dollars to ensure their shipments are released from customs on time. That means cargoes get stuck at ports or may even be diverted to other destinations.
“There was always a historical strain on making these payments, but at the moment it’s unbearable pressure,” said Tedd George, a consultant specializing in Africa and commodities markets.
In Ghana, where the cedi has lost about 44% this year against the dollar — making it the second-worst-performing currency in the world — there are already worries about supplies ahead of Christmas.
“We think there is going to be a shortage of some food items,” said Samson Asaki Awingobit, executive secretary of Ghana’s importers and exporters association which includes buyers of grains, flour and rice. “The dollar is swallowing our cedi and we are in a hopeless situation.”
To be sure, some countries may be cushioned by their purchases in other currencies like euros, while energy-exporting nations will profit from overseas revenues. Global food-commodity costs have also fallen for six straight months, giving hopes for a relief to consumers.
But the soaring dollar threatens to erode some of that benefit, according to Monika Tothova, an economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, which sees this year’s global food import bill at a record high.
The situation is still fragile. Concerns are mounting anew over supplies out of the Black Sea region as the war in Ukraine escalates and there are questions over the future of the deal to ship grains out of Ukrainian ports. Weather shocks have driven volatility in recent months, stocks are low and soaring fertilizer and energy prices are boosting food production costs.
As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, the dollar’s strength versus currencies in emerging and developing markets will add to inflation and debt pressures, the IMF said in its global outlook this week.
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, government moves to prevent foreign-exchange outflows meant that containers holding food like chickpeas and other pulses piled up at ports last month, sending prices surging, according to Muzzammil Rauf Chappal, the chairman of the Cereal Association of Pakistan.
The situation eased after the appointment of new finance minister who pledged to clear pending transactions for businesses that have been delayed because of a dollar shortage in its interbank market.
“The situation was quite dangerous,” said Chappal, whose company is the country’s biggest private sector wheat importer. “We were expecting the country to face a serious grain crisis.”
In Egypt, one of the world’s top wheat importers, shortages have plagued private sector mills that supply flour for bread that isn’t part of the country’s subsidy program.
About 80% of millers have run out of wheat and stopped operations as some 700,000 tons of grain remain stuck at the country’s ports since the start of last month, according to the Chamber of Cereal Industry. The supply ministry said Wednesday it would provide wheat and flour to private sector mills and pasta factories.
Cargill’s Sanfeliu said he expects global wheat trade flow to shrink by as much as 6% in the upcoming months, with corn and soybean meal flows dropping by as much as 3%, as developing countries struggle to pay for food and animal feed.
In Bangladesh, business conglomerate Meghna Group of Industries may have to cut the amount of wheat it had planned to import before the war broke out amid at least a 20% jump in wheat import costs due to the stronger dollar, said Taslim Shahriar, the company’s procurement official.
“Currency fluctuations are creating huge losses for the company,” said Shahriar. “We have never seen this before.”
–With assistance from Arun Devnath, Abdel Latif Wahba, Asantha Sirimanne, Tarso Veloso Ribeiro, Souhail Karam, Katarina Hoije, Ama Tanoh and Eddie Spence.