虽然2022年还没有结束,但对于许多打算IPO的公司来说,剩下的两个月已经没什么戏了。2022年是硅谷的高估值和交易量遭遇双重打击的一年,初创公司同样遭到重创,由于市场大环境不利,今年的IPO大幅放缓。2022年第一季度,美国只有77家公司IPO,总融资不过122亿美元。而去年第一季度则有395家公司IPO,融资规模达到1400亿美元。
尽管保时捷等少数公司已开始试水IPO,但分析师认为,目前的宏观经济还远未恢复到能让IPO显著活跃的水平。巴布森学院的商学教授彼得•科汉表示:“除非利率出现下降迹象,否则大家是不会选择IPO的,当然也不可能有科技公司的IPO。”
多数分析师预计,IPO活动要想显著活跃起来,最早也得等到2023年第二季度。德勤美国IPO服务部负责人巴雷特·丹尼尔斯表示:“从我听到的情况看,业内人士的乐观和信心显著提升,大家都认为,到了明年春夏的传统IPO窗口,届时的IPO活动将非常健康。”
虽然到今年年底前应该不会有多少公司IPO,但全球毕竟有超过1200家“独角兽”公司,等到他们选择上市时,投资者还是会有巨大的机会。纽交所全球资本市场负责人迈克尔·哈里斯表示:“很多公司都想在纽交所上市,所以这只是一个靴子何时落地的问题。”只要有几家公司一炮打响,就能扭转市场的情绪。丹尼尔斯也表示:“只要有几家资本充裕的知名企业上市,且表现良好,大家的注意力就会重新集中到增长上——增长才是华尔街的万灵药。”
对于想押注IPO的投资者来说,最重要的是评估一家公司的增长潜力,以及它是否有上市所需的收入流(科汉认为年收入至少应在1亿美元以上)。
那么,哪些公司有望率先IPO?下面这10家公司,有的是之前推迟了上市计划,最近又重新递交了上市文件的公司;有的则是分析师认为上市后将表现良好的公司。
1、Turo
Turoi是旧金山的一家共享汽车公司,它也是2022年第一家向美国证监会提交上市申请的本土大型公司。Turo在今年5月和9月两次更新了申请文件,说明它的上市意愿还是很强烈的。复兴资本的研究副总裁尼克·艾因霍恩表示:“这家公司披露了近期的财务状况,这是一个他们即将在某个时间上市的信号。”根据今年1月提交的IPO文件,Turo的IPO或将融资3亿美元。
2、Savers Value Village
Savers是美国的一个二手商品交易平台,今年美国的物价飞涨恰恰对它十分利好,所以它也准备启动上市融资。艾因霍恩表示:“通胀虽然对消费者不利,但对二手交易平台显然十分利好。”Savers去年年底递交了上市申请,并且在2022年5月更新了申请文件。该公司去年年底预计通过IPO可融资2.5亿美元。其IPO的承销商为摩根大通、高盛和杰富瑞。
3、Clarios
这家电动汽车电池生产商原本预计会在去年夏天IPO,不过后来却推迟了上市计划。随着电动汽车行业对锂电池的需求越来越大,该公司未来几年具有不错的增长前景。该公司目前由布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司持有,去年夏天它曾递交过上市申请,不过在交易类app公司Robinhood上市陷入困境后,Clarios选择了推迟上市。2022年6月它再度提交了上市申请,这表示相关工作可能将重新启动。彭博社去年夏天报道称,该公司IPO后的市值有望超过200亿美元。
4、MN8 Energy
艾因霍恩指出,高盛资产管理公司旗下的太阳能生产商MN8 Energy也有望在不久后IPO。该公司在今年9月提交了上市申请,这表明它的IPO已经指日可待了。该公司计划在纽交所上市,股票代码为MNX。
5、Wiz
Wiz是一家以色列云软件公司,它的年经营收入从100万美元增长1亿美元只用了短短18个月。它在2021年2月发布了第一款产品,但到2022年7月,其估计就已达到60亿美元。尽管该公司尚未宣布上市计划,据报道也没有提交IPO申请,但是科汉认为,Wiz很快就会筹划上市事宜,而且届时将为投资者带来丰厚回报。科汉表示:“如果你的营收达到了1亿美元,尤其你还在以三位数的速度增长,那么你上市的可能性就非常大,而且上市后你的股票也很可能会有不错的表现。”
6、Mobileye
Mobileye是英特尔旗下的一家自动驾驶汽车零部件制造商,它在今年9月底提交了上市申请,这也意味着它可能会很快上市。去年该公司的营收入为13.9亿美元。它原本计划在2022年年中上市,后因市场波动而推迟。该公司尚未公布IPO股价。据彭博社报道,该公司IPO后的估值将达到300亿美元,低于最初预期的500亿美元。
7、Reddit
Reddit是一个在线论坛公司,自2021年12月递交上市申请以来,它的IPO一直备受期待。据彭博社报道,Reddit原本计划在2022年3月上市,后因市场波动而推迟。截至2021年8月,Reddit的估值为100亿美元。
8、TripActions
TripActions是一家商务差旅服务公司。据报道,它已于9月份提交了上市申请,有望在2023年第二季度上市。该公司的申请估计为120亿美元。2021年10月,该公司在F轮融资中募得2.75亿美元,其估值达到72.5亿美元。TripActions的一位发言人表示,该公司正在考虑上市,但没有具体说明上市时间。
9、ServiceTitan
ServiceTitan是一家专门面向服务业工人的软件公司.2021年6月,它的估值达到95亿美元。据报道,它已于今年1月提交了上市申请,交易规模预计将达到180亿美元。2021年6月,该公司在G轮融资中募得2亿美元。据《Insider》报道,该公司原计划在2022年上市,但调整后的时间尚不得而知。
10、Cybereason
据路透社报道,虽然受大环境影响,今年各行各业都不景气,但网络安全行业的表现却远远好于其他行业。只是Cybereason公司虽然在今年1月份完成了IPO申请,却还是由于市场波动未能上市。据报道,该公司的IPO目标是50亿美元以上估值。(财富中文网)
本文是《财富》2022年第四季度投资指南的一部分。
译者:朴成奎
虽然2022年还没有结束,但对于许多打算IPO的公司来说,剩下的两个月已经没什么戏了。2022年是硅谷的高估值和交易量遭遇双重打击的一年,初创公司同样遭到重创,由于市场大环境不利,今年的IPO大幅放缓。2022年第一季度,美国只有77家公司IPO,总融资不过122亿美元。而去年第一季度则有395家公司IPO,融资规模达到1400亿美元。
尽管保时捷等少数公司已开始试水IPO,但分析师认为,目前的宏观经济还远未恢复到能让IPO显著活跃的水平。巴布森学院的商学教授彼得•科汉表示:“除非利率出现下降迹象,否则大家是不会选择IPO的,当然也不可能有科技公司的IPO。”
多数分析师预计,IPO活动要想显著活跃起来,最早也得等到2023年第二季度。德勤美国IPO服务部负责人巴雷特·丹尼尔斯表示:“从我听到的情况看,业内人士的乐观和信心显著提升,大家都认为,到了明年春夏的传统IPO窗口,届时的IPO活动将非常健康。”
虽然到今年年底前应该不会有多少公司IPO,但全球毕竟有超过1200家“独角兽”公司,等到他们选择上市时,投资者还是会有巨大的机会。纽交所全球资本市场负责人迈克尔·哈里斯表示:“很多公司都想在纽交所上市,所以这只是一个靴子何时落地的问题。”只要有几家公司一炮打响,就能扭转市场的情绪。丹尼尔斯也表示:“只要有几家资本充裕的知名企业上市,且表现良好,大家的注意力就会重新集中到增长上——增长才是华尔街的万灵药。”
对于想押注IPO的投资者来说,最重要的是评估一家公司的增长潜力,以及它是否有上市所需的收入流(科汉认为年收入至少应在1亿美元以上)。
那么,哪些公司有望率先IPO?下面这10家公司,有的是之前推迟了上市计划,最近又重新递交了上市文件的公司;有的则是分析师认为上市后将表现良好的公司。
1、Turo
Turoi是旧金山的一家共享汽车公司,它也是2022年第一家向美国证监会提交上市申请的本土大型公司。Turo在今年5月和9月两次更新了申请文件,说明它的上市意愿还是很强烈的。复兴资本的研究副总裁尼克·艾因霍恩表示:“这家公司披露了近期的财务状况,这是一个他们即将在某个时间上市的信号。”根据今年1月提交的IPO文件,Turo的IPO或将融资3亿美元。
2、Savers Value Village
Savers是美国的一个二手商品交易平台,今年美国的物价飞涨恰恰对它十分利好,所以它也准备启动上市融资。艾因霍恩表示:“通胀虽然对消费者不利,但对二手交易平台显然十分利好。”Savers去年年底递交了上市申请,并且在2022年5月更新了申请文件。该公司去年年底预计通过IPO可融资2.5亿美元。其IPO的承销商为摩根大通、高盛和杰富瑞。
3、Clarios
这家电动汽车电池生产商原本预计会在去年夏天IPO,不过后来却推迟了上市计划。随着电动汽车行业对锂电池的需求越来越大,该公司未来几年具有不错的增长前景。该公司目前由布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司持有,去年夏天它曾递交过上市申请,不过在交易类app公司Robinhood上市陷入困境后,Clarios选择了推迟上市。2022年6月它再度提交了上市申请,这表示相关工作可能将重新启动。彭博社去年夏天报道称,该公司IPO后的市值有望超过200亿美元。
4、MN8 Energy
艾因霍恩指出,高盛资产管理公司旗下的太阳能生产商MN8 Energy也有望在不久后IPO。该公司在今年9月提交了上市申请,这表明它的IPO已经指日可待了。该公司计划在纽交所上市,股票代码为MNX。
5、Wiz
Wiz是一家以色列云软件公司,它的年经营收入从100万美元增长1亿美元只用了短短18个月。它在2021年2月发布了第一款产品,但到2022年7月,其估计就已达到60亿美元。尽管该公司尚未宣布上市计划,据报道也没有提交IPO申请,但是科汉认为,Wiz很快就会筹划上市事宜,而且届时将为投资者带来丰厚回报。科汉表示:“如果你的营收达到了1亿美元,尤其你还在以三位数的速度增长,那么你上市的可能性就非常大,而且上市后你的股票也很可能会有不错的表现。”
6、Mobileye
Mobileye是英特尔旗下的一家自动驾驶汽车零部件制造商,它在今年9月底提交了上市申请,这也意味着它可能会很快上市。去年该公司的营收入为13.9亿美元。它原本计划在2022年年中上市,后因市场波动而推迟。该公司尚未公布IPO股价。据彭博社报道,该公司IPO后的估值将达到300亿美元,低于最初预期的500亿美元。
7、Reddit
Reddit是一个在线论坛公司,自2021年12月递交上市申请以来,它的IPO一直备受期待。据彭博社报道,Reddit原本计划在2022年3月上市,后因市场波动而推迟。截至2021年8月,Reddit的估值为100亿美元。
8、TripActions
TripActions是一家商务差旅服务公司。据报道,它已于9月份提交了上市申请,有望在2023年第二季度上市。该公司的申请估计为120亿美元。2021年10月,该公司在F轮融资中募得2.75亿美元,其估值达到72.5亿美元。TripActions的一位发言人表示,该公司正在考虑上市,但没有具体说明上市时间。
9、ServiceTitan
ServiceTitan是一家专门面向服务业工人的软件公司.2021年6月,它的估值达到95亿美元。据报道,它已于今年1月提交了上市申请,交易规模预计将达到180亿美元。2021年6月,该公司在G轮融资中募得2亿美元。据《Insider》报道,该公司原计划在2022年上市,但调整后的时间尚不得而知。
10、Cybereason
据路透社报道,虽然受大环境影响,今年各行各业都不景气,但网络安全行业的表现却远远好于其他行业。只是Cybereason公司虽然在今年1月份完成了IPO申请,却还是由于市场波动未能上市。据报道,该公司的IPO目标是50亿美元以上估值。(财富中文网)
本文是《财富》2022年第四季度投资指南的一部分。
译者:朴成奎
This year isn’t over yet, but for many IPO hopefuls, it might as well be. As a sobering reality in 2022 extinguished overblown valuations and rapid dealmaking that defined Silicon Valley last year, startups have stumbled. Wary of the hostile market environment, IPOs have slowed drastically. In the first quarter of 2022, there were only 77 IPOs that raised $12.2 billion, compared to 2021’s first quarter, when 395 offerings raised $140 billion.
While a few companies, such as Porsche, have begun to test the IPO waters, analysts say that macroeconomic conditions are still far from where they need to be currently to see IPO activity pick up significantly. “Until interest rates show signs that they’re going to come down, there aren’t going to be IPOs [and] there certainly are not going to be tech IPOs,” said Peter Cohan, a business professor at Babson College.
The earliest most analysts will venture to predict IPO activity could pick up at a significant volume is the second quarter of 2023. “I’ve been hearing a considerable uptick in optimism and confidence from [people in the industry] that feel like by 2023 your traditional IPO window in the spring and second quarter should be really healthy,” said Barrett Daniels, U.S. IPO services co-leader at Deloitte.
Yet despite the fact that there won't be a parade of IPOs by the end of this year, there will be huge opportunities for investors when the over 1,200 unicorns worldwide begin to enter the public market. "We have a robust pipeline of companies at the NYSE that are looking to go public. It’s really a matter of the timing falling into place," explained Michael Harris, global head of capital markets at the New York Stock Exchange. And it takes only a few well-received debuts to change the sentiment. “After a few well-capitalized and well-known companies go public and perform well, we expect the focus will be back on growth—the elixir of Wall Street,” said Daniels.
For investors making a bet on an IPO prospect, it’s important to consider how the company is positioned for growth—and whether it has the revenue stream (Cohan says at least $100 million annually) to go public.
Which IPOs will be first out of the gate? These are the 10 companies that have delayed previous IPO plans, recently filed to go public, or have been picked by analysts as companies positioned to do well in public markets.
1. Turo
The San Francisco–based car-sharing company was the first major U.S company in 2022 to file for approval to go public with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January. Turo recently updated its filing in May and September, which indicates the company has its eye on the public markets. “They disclosed their most recent financials, so it’s a sign that they’re still trending to IPO at some point,” said vice president of research Nick Einhorn at Renaissance Capital. According to Renaissance Capital research, based on the original IPO filing in January, the deal could raise up to $300 million.
2. Savers Value Village
The thrift store operator is well poised to be thinking about going public amid ballooning in prices of goods this year due to rampant inflation. “When consumers are feeling more stretched, thrift stores are an obvious beneficiary of that,” Einhorn said. Savers Value Village filed to go public at the end of last year and recently updated its filing in May 2022. In late 2021, the company estimated it thought it could raise up to $250 million in an IPO deal. The filing is underwritten by J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies.
3. Clarios
This EV battery producer was an anticipated IPO last summer before the company delayed its debut on the public market. The company is positioned for growth as the car manufacturing industry will increasingly rely on lithium batteries for electric engines in years to come. Clarios, which is owned by Brookfield Asset Management, filed to go public last summer but abruptly postponed the IPO deal after trading app company Robinhood floundered in the public market. Clarios refiled recently in late June 2022, signaling that plans may be back in the works. Bloomberg reported last summer that the original IPO could value the company at over $20 billion.
4. MN8 Energy
Einhorn also pointed to the company MN8 Energy, the solar energy producer owned by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, as a potential candidate for an upcoming IPO. The company filed to go public in September, indicating an IPO could be around the corner. The company says it plans to go public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MNX.
5. Wiz
Wiz, the Israeli software company, has grown from $1 million to $100 million in annual recurring revenue in just 18 months. From February 2021 to July 2022, the software cloud startup has gone from releasing its first product to an $6 billion valuation. While the company has not announced plans to go public or reportedly filed for an IPO deal, Cohan projects it will be eyeing the public market soon—and will pay off for investors when it does. “At $100 million in revenue, especially if you're growing at triple-digit rates, then there's a very high likelihood that you will be able to go public and that your stock will probably do well after it goes public,” explained Cohan.
6. Mobileye
The self-driving car parts manufacturer owned by Intel filed to go public in late September, making the company likely to go public imminently when the IPO market opens back up. The company reported revenues of $1.39 billion last year and originally planned to go public mid-2022, before delaying because of market volatility. The company did not list its share price for the proposed offering. Bloomberg reported that the initial IPO would value Mobileye at $30 billion, which is less than initial hopes that an IPO could value the company at $50 billion.
7. Reddit
Reddit has been a highly anticipated IPO ever since the online discussion forum company announced it filed to go public in December 2021. Bloomberg reported that the social media company initially planned to go public in March 2022 but paused plans amid volatility. As of August 2021, Reddit was valued at $10 billion.
8. TripActions
The corporate travel expenses company filed to go public in September and is reportedly eyeing an exit in the second quarter of 2023, according to an Insider report. The company filed for an IPO at a $12 billion valuation. Its last fundraising round was in October 2021—a $275 million Series F at a $7.25 billion valuation. A spokesperson for TripActions said that the company is considering going public, but did not specify any timeline.
9. ServiceTitan
The software company for service workers, valued at $9.5 billion in June 2021, filed to go public in January according to Insider. ServiceTitan is reportedly planning for an $18 billion IPO. The company’s most recent Series G fundraising round was in June 2021 and raised $200 million. Insider reported the startup originally aimed to go public in 2022, but the timing as of now is unclear.
10. Cybereason
Cybersecurity has fared far better during the market downturn than other sectors, but public market volatility has still prevented cybersecurity company Cybereason from pulling the trigger on the IPO filing the company completed in January, according to Reuters. The company reportedly is aiming for an over $5 billion valuation when going public.
This article is part of Fortune’s quarterly investment guide for Q4 2022.