虽然一段时间以来,欧洲加大了太阳能和风能的产量,从而一定程度上缓解了天然气供给短缺和能源价格暴涨带来的影响,但是这些可再生能源还远远不足以弥补欧洲对化石能源的需求。
能源价格是导致今年欧洲通胀水平上涨的一个重要因素。本周欧元区的年通胀率达到了9.9%,而能源价格对通胀的贡献率最大,达到42%。俄乌战争和俄罗斯限制对欧天然气出口则导致了欧洲能源危机的持续恶化。
不过考虑到今年欧洲的风能和太阳能等可再生能源产量再创新高,这也在一定程度上抑制了能源价格的进一步暴涨。
日前,两家能源与气候政策智库Ember和E3G发布了一份研究报告。该报告显示,今年3月至9月,欧盟的电力供应有24%来自风能和太阳能,高于去年同期的21%。
报告指出,与去年同期相比,欧洲增产部分的可再生能源相当于为欧盟节省了80亿立方米的天然气进口,折价约合110亿欧元(108亿美元)。在此期间,欧洲的可再生能源总产量大致相当于价值990亿欧元的天然气进口。
该研究根据荷兰TTF(欧盟基准天然气指数)的平均价格计算出了天然气的等价成本。今年夏天,俄罗斯能源公司减少对欧天然气输送时,荷兰TTF指数一度创下历史纪录,虽然此后天然气价格有所回落,但当前时期的价格同比仍然处于历史最高。
与去年相比,波兰的太阳能和风能发电量增幅最高,达到48%。西班牙太阳能和风能发电量的绝对增幅最大。如果今年3月份以来,西班牙的可再生能源没有增产,那么这部分发电量只能继续用天然气弥补,其进口成本将达到17亿欧元。
在欧盟27国中,有19个国家今年的太阳能和风能发电量都创下历史新高,包括法国、意大利和西班牙。
根据智库公司Ember今年9月份的一份报告,去年夏天,欧洲的太阳能产量很高,从去年5月到8月,太阳能占欧盟总发电量的比重达到创纪录的12%。在这3个月里,仅太阳能一项,就让欧盟国家省去了290亿欧元的天然气进口支出。
风能和太阳能一直是欧盟旗舰项目“REPowerEU”计划的基石。该计划旨在减少对俄罗斯化石能源的依赖,加大对清洁能源的投入以应对气候变化。随着俄乌冲突的爆发和天然气供应的收紧,欧洲对可再生能源的投资项目大幅加快,但行业的增长速度和规模仍不足以化解欧洲日益恶化的能源危机。
能源危机仍在发酵
在俄乌战争爆发时,欧洲有40%的天然气和27%的石油进口依赖于俄罗斯。欧洲长期以来一直以天然气作为能源转型的重要助力,尤其是高度依赖俄罗斯的天然气。今年年初,欧盟曾给一些天然气项目打上“绿色”的标签。
但欧洲的可再生能源计划也有其局限性。首先是它对清洁能源技术的需求程度超过了稀土等关键元素的供给速度,比如用于制造太阳能发电板和电池的锂、钴等稀有金属。
其次,欧洲的可再生能源产量也受到了今年恶劣天气的影响。今年夏天,欧洲遭遇了高温和严重干旱,多地出现水位下降,导致水力发电不尽如人意。而水力发电是欧洲仅次于风能的第二大可再生能源。
欧洲可再生能源的韧性和发展势头,一定程度上会影响能源危机是否将延续到明年,因为届时天然气供应将更加有限,同时欧盟对俄罗斯石油的部分禁令也将开始生效。
Ember/E3G的研究报告指出,尽管欧洲可再生能源行业仍然面临不少挑战,但天然气价格特别是液化天然气价格的持续高企,意味着未来几年内,绿色能源仍将是欧洲各国政府最容易接受的选择。
E3G能源系统转型高级助理阿图尔·帕图雷亚在一份声明中表示:“未来几年,液化天然气市场的紧张将继续推高天然气成本,因此各国政府应支持‘RePowerEU’计划的清洁能源目标,将其作为应对能源价格危机的核心要素。”
根据国际能源署近期的分析,随着俄罗斯的进一步限制天然气出口以及全球争购的加剧,天然气的供应量至少到明年都将十分有限。
Ember的高级分析师克里斯•罗斯洛维也表示:“风能和太阳能已经对欧洲人产生了帮助。但未来它们的潜力更大。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
虽然一段时间以来,欧洲加大了太阳能和风能的产量,从而一定程度上缓解了天然气供给短缺和能源价格暴涨带来的影响,但是这些可再生能源还远远不足以弥补欧洲对化石能源的需求。
能源价格是导致今年欧洲通胀水平上涨的一个重要因素。本周欧元区的年通胀率达到了9.9%,而能源价格对通胀的贡献率最大,达到42%。俄乌战争和俄罗斯限制对欧天然气出口则导致了欧洲能源危机的持续恶化。
不过考虑到今年欧洲的风能和太阳能等可再生能源产量再创新高,这也在一定程度上抑制了能源价格的进一步暴涨。
日前,两家能源与气候政策智库Ember和E3G发布了一份研究报告。该报告显示,今年3月至9月,欧盟的电力供应有24%来自风能和太阳能,高于去年同期的21%。
报告指出,与去年同期相比,欧洲增产部分的可再生能源相当于为欧盟节省了80亿立方米的天然气进口,折价约合110亿欧元(108亿美元)。在此期间,欧洲的可再生能源总产量大致相当于价值990亿欧元的天然气进口。
该研究根据荷兰TTF(欧盟基准天然气指数)的平均价格计算出了天然气的等价成本。今年夏天,俄罗斯能源公司减少对欧天然气输送时,荷兰TTF指数一度创下历史纪录,虽然此后天然气价格有所回落,但当前时期的价格同比仍然处于历史最高。
与去年相比,波兰的太阳能和风能发电量增幅最高,达到48%。西班牙太阳能和风能发电量的绝对增幅最大。如果今年3月份以来,西班牙的可再生能源没有增产,那么这部分发电量只能继续用天然气弥补,其进口成本将达到17亿欧元。
在欧盟27国中,有19个国家今年的太阳能和风能发电量都创下历史新高,包括法国、意大利和西班牙。
根据智库公司Ember今年9月份的一份报告,去年夏天,欧洲的太阳能产量很高,从去年5月到8月,太阳能占欧盟总发电量的比重达到创纪录的12%。在这3个月里,仅太阳能一项,就让欧盟国家省去了290亿欧元的天然气进口支出。
风能和太阳能一直是欧盟旗舰项目“REPowerEU”计划的基石。该计划旨在减少对俄罗斯化石能源的依赖,加大对清洁能源的投入以应对气候变化。随着俄乌冲突的爆发和天然气供应的收紧,欧洲对可再生能源的投资项目大幅加快,但行业的增长速度和规模仍不足以化解欧洲日益恶化的能源危机。
能源危机仍在发酵
在俄乌战争爆发时,欧洲有40%的天然气和27%的石油进口依赖于俄罗斯。欧洲长期以来一直以天然气作为能源转型的重要助力,尤其是高度依赖俄罗斯的天然气。今年年初,欧盟曾给一些天然气项目打上“绿色”的标签。
但欧洲的可再生能源计划也有其局限性。首先是它对清洁能源技术的需求程度超过了稀土等关键元素的供给速度,比如用于制造太阳能发电板和电池的锂、钴等稀有金属。
其次,欧洲的可再生能源产量也受到了今年恶劣天气的影响。今年夏天,欧洲遭遇了高温和严重干旱,多地出现水位下降,导致水力发电不尽如人意。而水力发电是欧洲仅次于风能的第二大可再生能源。
欧洲可再生能源的韧性和发展势头,一定程度上会影响能源危机是否将延续到明年,因为届时天然气供应将更加有限,同时欧盟对俄罗斯石油的部分禁令也将开始生效。
Ember/E3G的研究报告指出,尽管欧洲可再生能源行业仍然面临不少挑战,但天然气价格特别是液化天然气价格的持续高企,意味着未来几年内,绿色能源仍将是欧洲各国政府最容易接受的选择。
E3G能源系统转型高级助理阿图尔·帕图雷亚在一份声明中表示:“未来几年,液化天然气市场的紧张将继续推高天然气成本,因此各国政府应支持‘RePowerEU’计划的清洁能源目标,将其作为应对能源价格危机的核心要素。”
根据国际能源署近期的分析,随着俄罗斯的进一步限制天然气出口以及全球争购的加剧,天然气的供应量至少到明年都将十分有限。
Ember的高级分析师克里斯•罗斯洛维也表示:“风能和太阳能已经对欧洲人产生了帮助。但未来它们的潜力更大。”(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
Increased solar and wind power production has softened the blow of limited natural gas supply and soaring energy prices in Europe, but renewable energy has yet to completely supplant the continent’s appetite for fossil fuels.
Energy prices have been a big factor behind Europe’s rising inflation this year. The euro area’s annual inflation rate hit 9.9% this week, with rising energy prices—exacerbated by the Ukraine War and Russia limiting natural gas flows to Europe—accounting for the largest share of inflation at 42%.
But energy prices may have been tempered somewhat by record renewable energy production this year, mainly wind and solar power.
Between March and September of this year, wind and solar were ramped up to provide 24% of the EU’s electricity, up from 21% over the same period last year, according to a study released Monday by energy and climate policy think tanks Ember and E3G.
The increased production has saved the bloc the equivalent of 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas imports compared with the same period last year, worth around €11 billion ($10.8 billion), the study found. Total renewable energy production in Europe during this period is worth the equivalent of €99 billion in natural gas imports.
The study’s authors calculated the equivalent cost in natural gas based on the average price of the Dutch TTF, the EU’s benchmark natural gas index. The TTF hit record highs during the summer when Russian energy companies began reducing natural gas flows to Europe, and while prices have fallen since then, they are still at a record high for this time of year.
Poland registered the highest increase in solar and wind generation compared with last year, around 48%, while Spain saw the greatest absolute increase in electricity generated from the two sources. If Spain had used natural gas to generate the electricity solar and wind have produced in the country since March, it would have cost €1.7 billion in imports.
In all, as many as 19 of the 27 EU member states—including France, Italy, and Spain—hit individual records for solar and wind power generation.
Solar energy was especially productive in Europe last summer, when it accounted for a record 12% of EU electricity generation from May to August, according to a September report by Ember. In those three months, solar alone allowed EU nations to avoid spending €29 billion in natural gas imports, according to Ember.
Wind and solar have been the cornerstone of the European Union’s flagship REPowerEU plan to transition from reliance on Russian fossil fuels to a renewed focus on clean energy sources to tackle climate change. But while the Ukraine invasion and constricted natural gas supply helped to boost renewable energy investments and projects, the industry’s surge this year may be insufficiently fast and big enough to fend off a mounting energy crisis in Europe.
The energy crisis is still happening
When war broke out, Europe depended on Russia for 40% of its natural gas and 27% of its imported oil. Europe has long relied on natural gas, and especially Russian gas, as a key enabler of its transition from fossil fuels to renewables, designating some natural gas projects as “green” earlier this year.
But there are limits to Europe’s renewable energy ambitions. Its demand for clean energy technologies is outpacing supplies of crucial rare earth elements, including the lithium and cobalt used to manufacture solar panels and batteries.
Also, Europe’s renewable energy production has been hindered by difficult weather conditions this year. High temperatures and severe droughts led to low river levels and crippled Europe’s hydropower industry this summer, the continent’s second-largest renewable energy source behind wind.
The resilience and continued momentum of Europe’s renewable energy industry will likely influence whether the continent’s energy crisis will spill over into next year, as natural gas flows become even more limited and a partial EU ban on Russian oil kicks in.
But while Europe’s renewable industry faces challenges, persistently high prices for natural gas and its more easily transportable liquefied form, LNG, mean that that greener energy may prove to be the easiest option for governments over the next few years, the authors of the Ember/E3G study wrote.
“With tight LNG markets sustaining high gas costs for the next years, governments need to support the clean energy ambition of RePowerEU, making it a core element of the energy price crisis response,” Artur Patuleia, senior associate of energy system transitions at E3G, said in a statement.
Natural gas supplies are expected to remain limited for the next year at least, according to recent analysis from the watchdog International Energy Agency, owing to further constraints from Russia and rising global competition for supplies.
“Wind and solar are already helping European citizens,” Chris Rosslowe, senior analyst at Ember, also said. “But the future potential is even greater.”