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拥有住房的美国梦遥不可及,目前几乎看不到任何解决方案

MEGAN LEONHARDT
2022-12-13

53%的潜在购房者表示,他们正在等待利率下降,然后再购房。

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对于许多千禧一代来说,拥有住房的梦想似乎已经破灭。图片来源:BODNARCHUK/GETTY IMAGES

每隔几周,我都会打开Zillow网站,搜索我所在社区的待售房屋。这不是为了好玩。这可不是什么愉快的经历。相反,这更像是自我折磨。

房价令人咋舌——这还没有考虑到抵押贷款利率上升导致月供增加数百美元(甚至数千美元)的事实。

在我住的那条街的一头,一套四卧四卫的房子售价约为110万美元。在另一个角落,有一栋八卧的豪宅,可以俯瞰曼哈顿的美景,挂牌价高达325万美元。当这套房子挂牌时,我的反应是,哈哈。

即使是一栋百万美元的房子,我也要支付建议的20%的首付和手续费,我手头大约需要33万美元的资金——基本上相当于在美国其他地区买一整栋房子的费用。

当然,我住在大纽约都会区,这里的房价比全国平均水平要高得多。但我也有体面的生活,感觉在人生的这个阶段,我应该有能力放弃租房,开始积累资产。我不需要豪宅,但在我的社区,独栋住宅的中位价在过去一年里上涨了14.3%。根据RedFin的最新数据,10月份,房屋的平均售价为107万美元。我所在的社区的房价只被认为是“有一定竞争力”。

Zillow估计,在我所在的街区,如果购买一套挂牌110万美元、四卧四卫(没有停车位,谢谢您嘞)的房子,我的月供将达到7474美元。即使我计划把工资的50%花在住房上(建议的比例是不到30%),我每年也需要花费近18万美元。

但是,即使是在所谓的房价较低的地区,房价也在急剧上涨,人们的工资或储蓄远不能负担得起一套房子甚至一套公寓。关于“首套房”的消亡,已经有很多文章。哈里斯民意调查(Harris Poll)对近2000名美国成年人进行的一项新调查显示,全美约61%的美国人觉得目前的房地产市场价格太高而望而却步。在千禧一代(25岁至41岁)中,这一比例跃升至69%。近一半的美国人(47%)认为,他们所在的地区的房价已经变得难以负担,不再宜居。但千禧一代对此有更强烈的感受——56%的人认为负担不起如今的房价。

这就是为什么包括我在内的许多千禧一代都在质疑是否能拥有自己的房子。哈里斯民意调查发现,我们这一代人中约有56%的人认为拥有住房的梦想已经破灭。

也许我们错过了疫情前房价较低的时机?或者,也许我们应该在今年早些时候抵押贷款利率为3%的时候,与创纪录的低库存作斗争,抢购一套房子?

现在肯定不是时候,对吧?因为尽管随着住房供应趋于平衡,房价略有下降,但30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率目前徘徊在6.49%(预期美联储会持续加息,抵押贷款利率还将上升)。事实上,53%的潜在购房者表示,他们正在等待利率下降,然后再购房。

哈里斯民意调查显示,问题在于,尽管乐观情绪正在减弱,但超过四分之三(76%)的租房者还没有完全放弃梦想,他们仍希望有一天能拥有自己的房子。近四成美国人希望在未来三年内购买新房。

因此大家都在Zillow网站上搜索,这过程简直是自讨苦吃。

再见了,大城市

严肃地说,我们中的许多人正在问自己的问题是,我们如何才能实现拥有住房的愿望?哈里斯民意调查的首席战略官兼未来学家利比·罗德尼(Libby Rodney)表示,在美国人正努力应对专家所说的“叠加危机”之际(这些危机包括新冠肺炎疫情、俄乌冲突、通货膨胀和气候灾难),这一点尤其如此。

她说:“重建我们的安全感的关键是住房。作为人类,我们习惯于在不确定和动荡时期安家落户。这些数据表明,不仅人们觉得房价过高而望而却步,而且人们(尤其是千禧一代)居住的地区,房价太高了,以至于他们感觉住不起。”

对许多人来说,买房取决于地段,因此,想买房的人会把目光投向更远的郊区和农村地区。哈里斯民意调查发现,如今约有70%的美国人不同意“你必须住在城市才能在生活中取得成功”这一说法。

哈里斯民意调查发现,Z世代和千禧一代可能会带头放弃在城市购房,因为事实证明,他们比老一辈人更愿意搬到郊区和农村地区。

现在农村和郊区环境的吸引力越来越大,可能是由于疫情封城后,居家办公和混合办公模式持续存在。约77%的受访者表示,对远程工作的接受度越来越高,让他们更有信心搬去更远的地方。

“在过去的几年时间里,人们已经想出了如何在虚拟环境中为自己创造机会,并取得成功。罗德尼说:“新一代人将重新想象生活在农村地区和郊区社区的样子和感觉。他们会给这些地区带来什么样的新能量?”

当然,搬出都会区并不是每个人的解决方案——包括我在内。我喜欢我的社区,我绝对不想搬到更远的郊区或农村社区。

另一个解决办法是增加家庭收入。超过一半的美国人(54%)表示,他们只能通过与他人合租,并把收入集中起来来负担目前的房子。哈里斯民意调查的数据显示,只有19%的房主是自己住。

在房价如此之高的情况下,即使有两份收入也可能不够。罗德尼认为,目前的房地产市场可能导致美国人采取“创造性的解决方案”,比如众筹买房,或者多代同堂生活的比例上涨。“目前,我们确实看到有人以创造性的方式同居。”她说。

由于我的父母住在几个州之外,也没有搬家的计划,我可能与大约一半的美国人处于同样的境地,如今计划被搁置,直到高利率下降。

所以,在等待那个合适时机的时候,我祈祷Zillow的众神会因我的毅力而给予奖励,让我发现一套在我可以承受的价格范围内的房源。嘿,我们都有怪癖,对吧?(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

每隔几周,我都会打开Zillow网站,搜索我所在社区的待售房屋。这不是为了好玩。这可不是什么愉快的经历。相反,这更像是自我折磨。

房价令人咋舌——这还没有考虑到抵押贷款利率上升导致月供增加数百美元(甚至数千美元)的事实。

在我住的那条街的一头,一套四卧四卫的房子售价约为110万美元。在另一个角落,有一栋八卧的豪宅,可以俯瞰曼哈顿的美景,挂牌价高达325万美元。当这套房子挂牌时,我的反应是,哈哈。

即使是一栋百万美元的房子,我也要支付建议的20%的首付和手续费,我手头大约需要33万美元的资金——基本上相当于在美国其他地区买一整栋房子的费用。

当然,我住在大纽约都会区,这里的房价比全国平均水平要高得多。但我也有体面的生活,感觉在人生的这个阶段,我应该有能力放弃租房,开始积累资产。我不需要豪宅,但在我的社区,独栋住宅的中位价在过去一年里上涨了14.3%。根据RedFin的最新数据,10月份,房屋的平均售价为107万美元。我所在的社区的房价只被认为是“有一定竞争力”。

Zillow估计,在我所在的街区,如果购买一套挂牌110万美元、四卧四卫(没有停车位,谢谢您嘞)的房子,我的月供将达到7474美元。即使我计划把工资的50%花在住房上(建议的比例是不到30%),我每年也需要花费近18万美元。

但是,即使是在所谓的房价较低的地区,房价也在急剧上涨,人们的工资或储蓄远不能负担得起一套房子甚至一套公寓。关于“首套房”的消亡,已经有很多文章。哈里斯民意调查(Harris Poll)对近2000名美国成年人进行的一项新调查显示,全美约61%的美国人觉得目前的房地产市场价格太高而望而却步。在千禧一代(25岁至41岁)中,这一比例跃升至69%。近一半的美国人(47%)认为,他们所在的地区的房价已经变得难以负担,不再宜居。但千禧一代对此有更强烈的感受——56%的人认为负担不起如今的房价。

这就是为什么包括我在内的许多千禧一代都在质疑是否能拥有自己的房子。哈里斯民意调查发现,我们这一代人中约有56%的人认为拥有住房的梦想已经破灭。

也许我们错过了疫情前房价较低的时机?或者,也许我们应该在今年早些时候抵押贷款利率为3%的时候,与创纪录的低库存作斗争,抢购一套房子?

现在肯定不是时候,对吧?因为尽管随着住房供应趋于平衡,房价略有下降,但30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率目前徘徊在6.49%(预期美联储会持续加息,抵押贷款利率还将上升)。事实上,53%的潜在购房者表示,他们正在等待利率下降,然后再购房。

哈里斯民意调查显示,问题在于,尽管乐观情绪正在减弱,但超过四分之三(76%)的租房者还没有完全放弃梦想,他们仍希望有一天能拥有自己的房子。近四成美国人希望在未来三年内购买新房。

因此大家都在Zillow网站上搜索,这过程简直是自讨苦吃。

再见了,大城市

严肃地说,我们中的许多人正在问自己的问题是,我们如何才能实现拥有住房的愿望?哈里斯民意调查的首席战略官兼未来学家利比·罗德尼(Libby Rodney)表示,在美国人正努力应对专家所说的“叠加危机”之际(这些危机包括新冠肺炎疫情、俄乌冲突、通货膨胀和气候灾难),这一点尤其如此。

她说:“重建我们的安全感的关键是住房。作为人类,我们习惯于在不确定和动荡时期安家落户。这些数据表明,不仅人们觉得房价过高而望而却步,而且人们(尤其是千禧一代)居住的地区,房价太高了,以至于他们感觉住不起。”

对许多人来说,买房取决于地段,因此,想买房的人会把目光投向更远的郊区和农村地区。哈里斯民意调查发现,如今约有70%的美国人不同意“你必须住在城市才能在生活中取得成功”这一说法。

哈里斯民意调查发现,Z世代和千禧一代可能会带头放弃在城市购房,因为事实证明,他们比老一辈人更愿意搬到郊区和农村地区。

现在农村和郊区环境的吸引力越来越大,可能是由于疫情封城后,居家办公和混合办公模式持续存在。约77%的受访者表示,对远程工作的接受度越来越高,让他们更有信心搬去更远的地方。

“在过去的几年时间里,人们已经想出了如何在虚拟环境中为自己创造机会,并取得成功。罗德尼说:“新一代人将重新想象生活在农村地区和郊区社区的样子和感觉。他们会给这些地区带来什么样的新能量?”

当然,搬出都会区并不是每个人的解决方案——包括我在内。我喜欢我的社区,我绝对不想搬到更远的郊区或农村社区。

另一个解决办法是增加家庭收入。超过一半的美国人(54%)表示,他们只能通过与他人合租,并把收入集中起来来负担目前的房子。哈里斯民意调查的数据显示,只有19%的房主是自己住。

在房价如此之高的情况下,即使有两份收入也可能不够。罗德尼认为,目前的房地产市场可能导致美国人采取“创造性的解决方案”,比如众筹买房,或者多代同堂生活的比例上涨。“目前,我们确实看到有人以创造性的方式同居。”她说。

由于我的父母住在几个州之外,也没有搬家的计划,我可能与大约一半的美国人处于同样的境地,如今计划被搁置,直到高利率下降。

所以,在等待那个合适时机的时候,我祈祷Zillow的众神会因我的毅力而给予奖励,让我发现一套在我可以承受的价格范围内的房源。嘿,我们都有怪癖,对吧?(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

For many millennials, it feels like the dream of homeownership is dead.

BODNARCHUK/GETTY IMAGES

Every couple of weeks, I open Zillow and run a search of homes for sale in my neighborhood. Not for fun. This is not a pleasant experience. Instead, it’s more akin to self-torture.

The home prices are staggering—and that’s not even taking into account the fact that climbing mortgage rates are increasing payments by hundreds (if not thousands) a month.

On one end of my street, a four-bedroom, four-bathroom home is selling for about $1.1 million. On the other corner, there’s an eight-bedroom mansion complete with gorgeous Manhattan views listed for a whopping $3.25 million. My response when that listing went up? LOL.

To afford the suggested 20% down payment plus closing costs for even the million-dollar home, I’d need to have about $330,000 on hand—or basically the cost of an entire house in other parts of the country.

Sure, I live in the greater New York City area, and houses here are far more expensive than the national average. But I also earn a decent living, and it feels like I should be able to afford to quit renting and start building equity at this stage in my life. I don’t need a mansion, but in my neighborhood, the median price of single-family houses has jumped 14.3% over the last year. In October, the average house sold for $1.07 million, according to the latest data from RedFin. And my neighborhood is only considered “somewhat competitive.”

Zillow estimates that for that listed $1.1 million, four-bedroom, four-bathroom home (with no parking, thank you very much) in my neighborhood, I’d be on the hook for $7,474 a month. Even if I planned to spend 50% of my pay on housing (the suggested amount is less than 30%), I’d need to take home nearly $180,000 a year.

But even in supposedly cheaper areas, home prices have ballooned—far outpacing wages or the savings needed to pay for a house or even a condo. Much has been written about the death of the starter home. About 61% of Americans nationwide feel priced out of the current real estate market, according to a new survey by the Harris Poll of nearly 2,000 U.S. adults. That jumps to 69% among millennials (ages 25 to 41). Nearly half of Americans (47%) agree that their region has become so unaffordable it’s barely livable. But again, millennials have stronger feelings on this—56% agree it’s unaffordable.

It’s why many millennials, including myself, are questioning whether they’ll ever own a home. About 56% of my generation believe the dream of owning a home is dead, Harris’ survey finds.

Maybe we missed our window before the pandemic when home prices were lower? Or maybe we should’ve fought historic levels of low inventory to snag a property earlier this year when mortgage rates were 3%?

Now surely isn’t the time, right? Because despite home prices falling slightly as the housing supply evens out, the average 30-year mortgage rate is now hovering at 6.49% (and set to go higher with expected Federal Reserve rate hikes). In fact, 53% of prospective homebuyers say they’re waiting for the interest rates to decrease before making a real estate move.

The problem is that while optimism is waning, more than three-quarters of renters (76%) can’t quite let the dream go and would still like to own a residence someday, according to Harris. Nearly four in 10 Americans want to buy a new home in the next three years.

So cue the masochistic Zillow searches.

Goodbye to the big city

In all seriousness, the question many of us are asking ourselves is, how do we make homeownership happen? That’s especially true as Americans wrestle with what experts call a “stacked crisis” that includes the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation, and climate disaster, says Libby Rodney, chief strategy officer and futurist at the Harris Poll.

“Crucial to reestablishing our sense of safety is housing. As humans, we are wired to nest and ground ourselves during times of uncertainty and upheaval. This data shows that not only do people feel priced out of the market, but areas that people live, especially millennials, are so expensive that they feel barely livable,” she says.

For many, it’s coming down to location as would-be homeowners look further afield to more suburban and rural areas. About seven in 10 Americans actually now disagree with the statement “You have to live in the city in order to be successful in life,” Harris finds.

Gen Z and millennials may lead the charge away from buying in cities, Harris finds, as it turns out they’re more open to moving to the suburbs and rural areas than older generations.

The growing appeal of rural and suburban settings now is likely due to the persistence of work-from-home and hybrid work following the pandemic lockdowns. About 77% of those surveyed reported that the widening acceptance of remote work gives them more confidence to move further afield.

“Over the last few years, people have figured out how to create opportunities and success for themselves in a virtual setting. There's a whole new generation that's going to reimagine what it looks and feels like to live in rural areas and suburban communities,” Rodney says. “What kind of new energy are they going to bring to those areas?”

Of course moving out of metro areas is not a solution for everyone—including me. I love my neighborhood, and I definitely don’t want to move further into the suburbs or to a rural community.

The other solution is increasing my household income. Over half of Americans (54%) say that they’re only just able to afford their current home by living with someone else and pooling their incomes. Only 19% of homeowners live by themselves, according to Harris.

With housing prices so high, even two incomes may not be enough. Rodney believes that the current housing market may lead Americans to “creative solutions,” such as crowdfunding buying a house or an even bigger uptick in multigenerational living. “Currently, we do see people cohabitating and in creative ways,” she says.

Since my parents live several states away with no plans to move, I may be in the same boat with the roughly half of Americans who are now stuck on hold until high interest rates subside.

So as I wait for that opportune moment, I’m praying the Zillow gods will reward my perseverance and show me a listing that’s finally in my price range. Hey, we all have weird hobbies, right?

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