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2022年重返办公室大战,目前员工占上风

TREY WILLIAMS
2022-12-17

高管们曾以为2022年是“重返办公室”之年,他们错了。

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Executives and business leaders had their eyes set on 2022 being the year the office returned in full force. That didn't happen.之前高管和商业领袖都以为2022年能全面重返办公室。然而实际情况并非如此。图片来源:PETER CADE—GETTY IMAGES

还记得2020年3月吗?就在那一周,我们告别了办公室,开始在家临时凑出一小块空间用来上班。你当然记得。当时计划在家应付两周就能重返公司坐回自己的转椅,而且顺带着,工作状态也彻底恢复常态。

然而此后过了两年,又到了第三年,美国各地的上班族仍然窝在沙发和闲置卧室里对着电脑工作,至少一周里多数时间都在家办公。究其原因并不是高管们坐视不理,其实他们真心盼望着恢复旧日里人人都在办公室的美好时光。

今年的办公室本应返回疫情爆发前一年的状态。但现实世界里的2022年并未像多位决策者希望中一样。重返办公室的计划和任务断断续续,不断受到病毒新变异阻碍,而且将职场关系推向工作主义,员工和管理层就工作方式的未来展开了真正的战争。

事后诸葛亮地看,现在可以断定认为2020年5月或甚至几个月后的秋天能返回办公室只是一厢情愿(可能已是最委婉的说法了)。当时根本没到疫情最糟糕的时候。第一年没人接种疫苗,似乎也没什么办法能将感染曲线拉平。2021年初人们看到一些夏天回到办公室的希望,因为那年春天人们纷纷接种疫苗,然而后来出现了德尔塔变种,随后年底出现奥密克戎,很快打破了“人人接种后火爆夏日”的希望,更通俗的说法就是,返回办公室无望。

日历翻到2022年1月,人们已经习惯了隔一段时间叫嚷一轮重返办公室。2020年和2021年两度落败后,高管和商界领袖开始关注2022年是否有望。然而迎来的是关于办公室和未来工作形式争论更激烈一年。

2022年:重返办公室的尝试受挫

2021年很多公司经历太多失望之后,几乎放弃了规划返工日期,不过今年前几个月返工率其实出现了上升。

追踪员工钥匙卡录入系统模式的安全公司卡斯尔系统公司(Kastle Systems)称,2022年初,办公室到岗率略高于23%。到4月的第一周,到岗率跃升至43%,春季和夏季大部分时间里,到岗率基本保持不变。

当时正是远程办公与混合办公的员工与高管紧张关系和焦虑加剧的时期。2022年前几个月奥密克戎浪潮达到高峰后,人们对疫情的担心出现了重大转变。春天各公司老板已经准备好把员工召集回办公室:苹果的新混合办公计划让员工感到沮丧,高盛(Goldman Sachs)要求员工每周有五天都在公司工作,谷歌也停止居家开始将员工拉回办公室,还在湾区办公室为员工举办了一场莉佐的演唱会。

然而疫情两年后,白领员工已习惯了远程办公的自由和灵活,他们在任何地方都能工作,在海滩和森林里度假时也能接听电话,上Zoom开视频会议。庆祝返回办公室的仪式再热闹也打动不了他们。由于劳动力市场紧张,很多白领员工觉得自己占上风。

几乎人人都在反抗,成批地威胁离职。由于反对声浪太大,加上出现新的奥密克戎亚变种,多家公司被迫推迟或修改重返办公室的计划。公司宣布重返办公室时嗓门很大,到强制执行的时候却出奇地安静,因为员工根本无视规定。此外,没人愿意夏天重返办公室,连高管也不愿意。

本来劳动节应该是最终界限,我们又听到苹果、Peloton和Comcast等公司呼吁员工返回办公室。一些公司还像摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和高盛一样态度坚决,规定要么返回公司要么离职,另一些公司则推出午餐盒等福利引诱员工。

一定程度上起了作用。到岗率略有上升,从劳动节前的近44%上升到47%以上,也是疫情以来最高水平。但如果高管希望到岗率超过50%,就会非常失望。整个秋天,办公室到岗率一直徘徊在47%左右。

担心经济衰退并未影响人们居家办公

今年几乎从未间断的重返办公室辩论中还出现了一个更有趣的现象,就是眼看着人们的话题从何时能回到“正常”的朝九晚五,转向对员工来说最合适的混合、灵活的工作环境应该什么样。高管似乎基本上放弃了强迫员工重返办公室。但也许只是在等待时机,准备来场持久战?

“有种相当广泛的观点认为,办公文化里已接纳混合模式而且转向很成功,但随着经济逐渐衰退,人们将被迫回到办公室,因为别无选择,”上个月全球咨询和猎头公司光辉国际(Korn Ferry)高级客户合伙人丹·卡普兰(Dan Kaplan)告诉《财富》杂志。

他说,但问题是“人们不想回去。”

由于职位空缺非常多,哪怕普通的白领员工也能占据主动,选择尽情享受生活,他们确实有条件要求灵活办公以及平衡工作生活福利。

然而8月底,职位空缺降幅超过预期,从之前一个月的1120万减少到1010万,预示着经济前景更加黯淡,导致各行业公司经历了一段时间的增员和业务增长后必须勒紧裤腰带。

卡普兰的想法是,员工也会认定经济衰退即将到来,迅速返回办公室,态度更务实工作效率也更高,从而争取不被裁员。但为了削减成本,一些雇主在员工之前已经选择放弃办公室,与此同时跟经济学家的预期相反,岗位仍在继续增加,说明员工可能仍会占据上风。

现在要判断2023年(没准又是回归办公室的一年?)卡普兰的理论是否正确还为时过早,起码2022年下半年并未真正实现,当然各种焦虑显而易见。

9月、10月和11月大部分时间里,各处办公室到岗率相对稳定地保持在47%左右,某些行业可能高一些。卡斯尔系统公司最新数据显示,截至12月5日的一周,到岗率已跃升至49%,是疫情开始以来最高水平。

虽然今年杰米·戴蒙和埃隆·马斯克等高管想象中的重返办公室没实现,现实情况却有趣得多:不管是工作未来如何不断演变,还是办公室在当中是何种因素,都由切实受到情势影响的人们推动。我们肯定会持续关注。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

还记得2020年3月吗?就在那一周,我们告别了办公室,开始在家临时凑出一小块空间用来上班。你当然记得。当时计划在家应付两周就能重返公司坐回自己的转椅,而且顺带着,工作状态也彻底恢复常态。

然而此后过了两年,又到了第三年,美国各地的上班族仍然窝在沙发和闲置卧室里对着电脑工作,至少一周里多数时间都在家办公。究其原因并不是高管们坐视不理,其实他们真心盼望着恢复旧日里人人都在办公室的美好时光。

今年的办公室本应返回疫情爆发前一年的状态。但现实世界里的2022年并未像多位决策者希望中一样。重返办公室的计划和任务断断续续,不断受到病毒新变异阻碍,而且将职场关系推向工作主义,员工和管理层就工作方式的未来展开了真正的战争。

事后诸葛亮地看,现在可以断定认为2020年5月或甚至几个月后的秋天能返回办公室只是一厢情愿(可能已是最委婉的说法了)。当时根本没到疫情最糟糕的时候。第一年没人接种疫苗,似乎也没什么办法能将感染曲线拉平。2021年初人们看到一些夏天回到办公室的希望,因为那年春天人们纷纷接种疫苗,然而后来出现了德尔塔变种,随后年底出现奥密克戎,很快打破了“人人接种后火爆夏日”的希望,更通俗的说法就是,返回办公室无望。

日历翻到2022年1月,人们已经习惯了隔一段时间叫嚷一轮重返办公室。2020年和2021年两度落败后,高管和商界领袖开始关注2022年是否有望。然而迎来的是关于办公室和未来工作形式争论更激烈一年。

2022年:重返办公室的尝试受挫

2021年很多公司经历太多失望之后,几乎放弃了规划返工日期,不过今年前几个月返工率其实出现了上升。

追踪员工钥匙卡录入系统模式的安全公司卡斯尔系统公司(Kastle Systems)称,2022年初,办公室到岗率略高于23%。到4月的第一周,到岗率跃升至43%,春季和夏季大部分时间里,到岗率基本保持不变。

当时正是远程办公与混合办公的员工与高管紧张关系和焦虑加剧的时期。2022年前几个月奥密克戎浪潮达到高峰后,人们对疫情的担心出现了重大转变。春天各公司老板已经准备好把员工召集回办公室:苹果的新混合办公计划让员工感到沮丧,高盛(Goldman Sachs)要求员工每周有五天都在公司工作,谷歌也停止居家开始将员工拉回办公室,还在湾区办公室为员工举办了一场莉佐的演唱会。

然而疫情两年后,白领员工已习惯了远程办公的自由和灵活,他们在任何地方都能工作,在海滩和森林里度假时也能接听电话,上Zoom开视频会议。庆祝返回办公室的仪式再热闹也打动不了他们。由于劳动力市场紧张,很多白领员工觉得自己占上风。

几乎人人都在反抗,成批地威胁离职。由于反对声浪太大,加上出现新的奥密克戎亚变种,多家公司被迫推迟或修改重返办公室的计划。公司宣布重返办公室时嗓门很大,到强制执行的时候却出奇地安静,因为员工根本无视规定。此外,没人愿意夏天重返办公室,连高管也不愿意。

本来劳动节应该是最终界限,我们又听到苹果、Peloton和Comcast等公司呼吁员工返回办公室。一些公司还像摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和高盛一样态度坚决,规定要么返回公司要么离职,另一些公司则推出午餐盒等福利引诱员工。

一定程度上起了作用。到岗率略有上升,从劳动节前的近44%上升到47%以上,也是疫情以来最高水平。但如果高管希望到岗率超过50%,就会非常失望。整个秋天,办公室到岗率一直徘徊在47%左右。

担心经济衰退并未影响人们居家办公

今年几乎从未间断的重返办公室辩论中还出现了一个更有趣的现象,就是眼看着人们的话题从何时能回到“正常”的朝九晚五,转向对员工来说最合适的混合、灵活的工作环境应该什么样。高管似乎基本上放弃了强迫员工重返办公室。但也许只是在等待时机,准备来场持久战?

“有种相当广泛的观点认为,办公文化里已接纳混合模式而且转向很成功,但随着经济逐渐衰退,人们将被迫回到办公室,因为别无选择,”上个月全球咨询和猎头公司光辉国际(Korn Ferry)高级客户合伙人丹·卡普兰(Dan Kaplan)告诉《财富》杂志。

他说,但问题是“人们不想回去。”

由于职位空缺非常多,哪怕普通的白领员工也能占据主动,选择尽情享受生活,他们确实有条件要求灵活办公以及平衡工作生活福利。

然而8月底,职位空缺降幅超过预期,从之前一个月的1120万减少到1010万,预示着经济前景更加黯淡,导致各行业公司经历了一段时间的增员和业务增长后必须勒紧裤腰带。

卡普兰的想法是,员工也会认定经济衰退即将到来,迅速返回办公室,态度更务实工作效率也更高,从而争取不被裁员。但为了削减成本,一些雇主在员工之前已经选择放弃办公室,与此同时跟经济学家的预期相反,岗位仍在继续增加,说明员工可能仍会占据上风。

现在要判断2023年(没准又是回归办公室的一年?)卡普兰的理论是否正确还为时过早,起码2022年下半年并未真正实现,当然各种焦虑显而易见。

9月、10月和11月大部分时间里,各处办公室到岗率相对稳定地保持在47%左右,某些行业可能高一些。卡斯尔系统公司最新数据显示,截至12月5日的一周,到岗率已跃升至49%,是疫情开始以来最高水平。

虽然今年杰米·戴蒙和埃隆·马斯克等高管想象中的重返办公室没实现,现实情况却有趣得多:不管是工作未来如何不断演变,还是办公室在当中是何种因素,都由切实受到情势影响的人们推动。我们肯定会持续关注。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Do you remember March 2020? Specifically, the week we said goodbye to our office plants and began setting up make-shift office spaces at home? Of course you do. It was supposed to last two weeks before we’d be back in our rolly chairs and, for all intents and purposes, back to business as usual.

But two, going on three, years since then, and many office workers across the country are still typing away from their couches and spare bedrooms for at least a major part of their week—and it’s not for lack of trying by the executives eager to bring back the good ol’ days of the office.

This was supposed to be the year we all went back to how work looked pre-pandemic. But 2022 didn’t unfold the way many decision makers had hoped. Return-to-office plans and mandates came in fits and starts, hampered by new variants, shifting relationships to workism, and a veritable war between employees and management over the future of how we do our jobs.

Hindsight is 20/20, and we can all agree it shows that we were naive (probably the nicest way to put it) to ever think we’d be returning to the office in May 2020 or even a few months later in the fall. We had yet to experience the nadirs of the pandemic. No one was vaccinated and nothing seemed to flatten the curve that first year. And while 2021 initially offered some hope that we’d be back at our desks by summer, as people lined up for vaccines in the spring, the emergence of the Delta variant, followed later by Omicron toward the end of year, quickly dulled the promise of a “hot vax summer” and—slightly less bacchanalian—return to office.

By the time we flipped our calendars to January 2022, we were getting used to return-to-work cycle. After throwing in the towel on 2020 and 2021, executives and business leaders had their eye set on a 2022 return. What they got, however, was a chaotic up-and-down year filled with more questions about the office and what the future held.

2022: The year of thwarted return-to-office attempts

While many companies all but gave up on giving firm return-to office dates after so much disappointment in 2021, office occupancy rates actually saw an uptick a few months into the year.

At the start of 2022, office occupancy stood at just over 23%, according to Kastle Systems, a security company that tracks patterns in employee key-card entry systems. That jumped to 43% office occupancy by the first week of April, where it roughly remained through much of the spring and summer.

It was a period of heightened tension and anxiety between remote and hybrid workers and executives. There was a major shift in pandemic concerns in the early months of 2022, after the height of the Omicron wave. By spring, bosses were ready to start calling workers back to offices: Apple frustrated employees with its new hybrid plan, Goldman Sachs demanded staff to return five days a week, and Google put an end to working from home and started pulling workers back as well. The tech giant celebrated with a Lizzo concert for employees in its Bay Area offices.

Two years into the pandemic, however, white collar workers were used to their newfound freedom and flexibility that allowed them work from anywhere, taking calls and Zooms from beaches and woodsy getaways. They could not be swayed by flashy RTO celebrations. And in a tight labor market, many white collar employees felt they had the upper hand.

They all but rebelled, threatening to quit in droves. The fervent dissidence, coupled with the rise of new Omicron subvariants, forced many companies either delay or revise those their return-to-office plans. As loud as companies declared their return-to-office intentions, they were surprisingly quiet when it came time for enforcement as their employees simply ignored the mandates. Besides, no one wants to go into the office in the summer—not even executives

Labor Day was supposed to be the ultimate do-or-die, line in the sand—and once again we heard from companies like Apple, Peloton, and Comcast calling workers back. Some companies, in the vein of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, put their foot down and demanded a return or else, while others goaded workers with perks like lunch boxes to lure them back to their cubicles.

It worked, to a certain extent. Office occupancy saw a slight uptick from nearly 44% before the holiday, to more than 47%, the highest it had been since the start of the pandemic. But if execs were hoping to see that number tip over 50% they were sorely disappointed. Office occupancy has hovered around 47% all fall.

Recession fears haven’t stopped people from working from home

One of the more interesting wrinkles in this year’s virtually nonstop return-to-office debate was watching the narrative turn from when will we return to the “normal” nine-to-five, in-office work day to what’s the best hybrid, flexible working situation for employees. Executives, it seems, essentially gave up trying to force people back to offices. But perhaps they’re just biding their time and playing some long game?

“There’s a pretty broadly held view that we’ve done the hybrid thing, and it’s worked, but that we’re heading into a recession, and people are going to be forced to come back to the office because they’ll have no other choice,” Dan Kaplan, senior client partner at global consulting and headhunting firm Korn Ferry, told Fortune last month.

But the thing is, he says, “people aren’t going back.”

Rank-and-file office workers grabbed hold of the upper hand for dear life when job openings were a plenty, and they had leverage to demand flexibility and work-life benefits.

At the end of August, however, the number of job openings fell from 11.2 million the month prior to 10.1 million, more than expected. It signaled a gloomier economic outlook that caused companies across industries to tighten their belts after a period of increased hiring and growth.

The idea, as Kaplan laid out, was that employees would see the looming recession as writing on the wall and flock back to offices in an attempt to portray a more present, productive front and save themselves from layoffs. But some employers are opting to get rid of the office before the worker as a cost-cutting measure, and the economy is continuing to add jobs, defying economists’ expectations—signs the worker may still have the upper hand.

It’s too early to say whether Kaplan’s theory will prove true as we enter 2023 (the new year of return to office?), but it didn’t really come to fruition in the latter part of 2022, though those anxieties were palpable.

Office occupancy held relatively steady around 47%, with an uptick here and there, through most of September, October, and November. The latest data from Kastle Systems, however, shows that the week of Dec. 5, occupancy rates jumped to 49%, among the highest it’s been since the start of the pandemic.

Although returning to the office the way execs like Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk envisioned didn’t happen this year, what unfolded was so much more interesting: a real-time evolution of the future of work and how the office factors into that equation, driven by the people most impacted by how the puzzle pieces actually fall. We’re definitely keeping an eye on what comes next.

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