在经历了惨淡的2022年之后,美国股市今年开局强劲,标准普尔500指数1月份飙升超过6%,科技股也迎来了自2001年以来的最佳开年。对冲基金经理迈克尔•伯里(Michael Burry)成功预测了2007年和2008年的房地产市场崩盘并从中获利,从而一举成名。他预测,市场将出现转折,前景黯淡。
他在周二发布的一条已被删除的推文(这条推文简短到只有一个字)中写道:"卖"。在美联储宣布其最新利率决定,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)召开备受瞩目的新闻发布会之前几个小时,他就发布了这条推文。
尽管一些市场观察人士认为,新的牛市周期已经开启,许多投资者押注通胀最糟糕的时期已经过去,这将使美联储放缓或停止加息,并提振股市,但伯里并不买账。
这位Scion Asset Management公司的负责人自2019年以来一直表示,股票和债券市场处于泡沫区,并将出现崩盘。他认为,被动投资的兴起——一种强调资金持续流入指数基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)的长期买入和持有策略——助长了股市高估,而这种高估最终会发生逆转。当这种情况发生时,他警告说:“险象环生。”
2021年,在加密货币寒冬和2022年熊市之前,伯里表示,被动投资和风险投机的兴起将导致加密货币和股票的“极端崩盘事件”。去年,他遵循自己的建议进行了抛售,在第二季度大幅减持了Scion Asset Management持有的股票,只保留了一家私人监狱GEO Group的股票。
根据美国证券交易委员会的文件,去年年底,伯里最终增仓五家新公司,但这位对冲基金经理在增仓公开后发推文称,投资者“不知道我做空到什么地步”。去年11月,他说,即使在股市下跌了近20%后,市场仍处于“有史以来最大的投机泡沫”中,同时他还预测美国将出现“持续多年的经济衰退”
虽然伯里的预测比大多数人更悲观,但他并不是唯一一个预测股市会下跌的专家。包括摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官迈克·威尔逊(Mike Wilson)和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko kolanovic)在内的华尔街顶级策略师警告投资者,股市最近的上涨只是另一个熊市陷阱,一些市场观察人士认为,股市即将全面崩盘。
经营资产管理公司GMO的英国传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)在上周发布的2023年展望信中写道,由于他所谓的“超级泡沫”刚刚开始破裂,今年股市可能再跌50%。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
在经历了惨淡的2022年之后,美国股市今年开局强劲,标准普尔500指数1月份飙升超过6%,科技股也迎来了自2001年以来的最佳开年。对冲基金经理迈克尔•伯里(Michael Burry)成功预测了2007年和2008年的房地产市场崩盘并从中获利,从而一举成名。他预测,市场将出现转折,前景黯淡。
他在周二发布的一条已被删除的推文(这条推文简短到只有一个字)中写道:"卖"。在美联储宣布其最新利率决定,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)召开备受瞩目的新闻发布会之前几个小时,他就发布了这条推文。
尽管一些市场观察人士认为,新的牛市周期已经开启,许多投资者押注通胀最糟糕的时期已经过去,这将使美联储放缓或停止加息,并提振股市,但伯里并不买账。
这位Scion Asset Management公司的负责人自2019年以来一直表示,股票和债券市场处于泡沫区,并将出现崩盘。他认为,被动投资的兴起——一种强调资金持续流入指数基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)的长期买入和持有策略——助长了股市高估,而这种高估最终会发生逆转。当这种情况发生时,他警告说:“险象环生。”
2021年,在加密货币寒冬和2022年熊市之前,伯里表示,被动投资和风险投机的兴起将导致加密货币和股票的“极端崩盘事件”。去年,他遵循自己的建议进行了抛售,在第二季度大幅减持了Scion Asset Management持有的股票,只保留了一家私人监狱GEO Group的股票。
根据美国证券交易委员会的文件,去年年底,伯里最终增仓五家新公司,但这位对冲基金经理在增仓公开后发推文称,投资者“不知道我做空到什么地步”。去年11月,他说,即使在股市下跌了近20%后,市场仍处于“有史以来最大的投机泡沫”中,同时他还预测美国将出现“持续多年的经济衰退”
虽然伯里的预测比大多数人更悲观,但他并不是唯一一个预测股市会下跌的专家。包括摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官迈克·威尔逊(Mike Wilson)和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko kolanovic)在内的华尔街顶级策略师警告投资者,股市最近的上涨只是另一个熊市陷阱,一些市场观察人士认为,股市即将全面崩盘。
经营资产管理公司GMO的英国传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)在上周发布的2023年展望信中写道,由于他所谓的“超级泡沫”刚刚开始破裂,今年股市可能再跌50%。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
After a dismal 2022, the stock market has had a red-hot start to the year, with the S&P 500 soaring over 6% in January and tech stocks having their best month since 2001. But Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager best known for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the housing market in 2007 and 2008, is predicting a dark turn.
“Sell,” he wrote in a one-word, since-deleted tweet on Tuesday. The missive came just hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its latest interest rate decision, and Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated press conference.
While some market watchers have argued a new bull market is beginning and many investors are betting that the worst of inflation is over, which will enable the Federal Reserve to slow or stop its interest rate hikes and lift stocks, Burry isn’t buying it.
The Scion Asset Management chief has said since 2019 that the stock and bond markets are in bubble territory and set to crack. He believes that the rise of passive investing—a long-term buy-and-hold strategy that emphasizes continuous flows into index funds and ETFs—is fueling massive overvaluation in the stock market that will eventually reverse. And when that happens: “It will be ugly,” he warned.
In 2021, before the Crypto Winter and bear market of 2022, Burry said that the rise of passive investing and risky speculation would lead to the “mother of all crashes” in crypto and stocks. And he followed through on his own advice to sell last year, slashing all of Scion Asset Management’s holdings except for a single private prison stock, the GEO Group, in the second quarter.
Burry eventually added five small new positions near the end of last year, according to SEC filings, but the hedge funder tweeted after the purchases went public that investors have “no idea how short I am.” And in November, he said that even after a nearly 20% drop in stocks, the market was still an example of the “greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things,” while also predicting an “extended multiyear recession” in the U.S.
While Burry’s forecasts are more pessimistic than most, he isn’t the only expert predicting a downturn in stocks. Top Wall Street strategists—including Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson and J.P. Morgan chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic—are warning investors that the market’s latest rise is just another bear market trap, and some market watchers argue an outright crash is coming.
Jeremy Grantham, the legendary British investor who runs asset management firm GMO, wrote in a 2023 outlook letter published last week that stocks could drop another 50% this year as what he calls the “superbubble” has just begun to pop.