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CEO们如何应对经济衰退?

JOHN KELL
2023-02-08

领导者知道社会总是处于变化中,不确定性永远存在。

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照片来源:盖蒂图片社

普华永道(PwC)在来自100多个国家和地区的4400多名首席执行官中进行了调查,发现全球近75%的高管预计2023年经济增长将会下降。与普华永道两年前的调查相比,人们的看法发生了彻底逆转。当时,四分之三的首席执行官表态乐观。

如今,首席执行官们正在应对短期经济阵痛与长期转型以保持竞争力之间的紧张关系。普华永道的年度全球首席执行官调查显示,近40%的首席执行官认为,如果继续维持现有经营模式,本公司经济将在10年内难以维系。

“我的建议是:让你的公司胜任增长,”普华永道美国咨询解决方案副主席、联合主管和全球咨询主管穆罕默德•坎德在周三的《财富》首席执行官领导力系列活动上说:“尽一切所能优化成本结构,再投资于增长。这种增长需要是技术驱动型增长。这将是未来所在。”

一年多来,美联储官员一直在抗击通胀,不断提高利率,以减缓经济增长,缓解物价上涨。政策制定者期望以一种理想的方式来实现目标,同时只引起温和或短期衰退,甚或完全避免经济衰退。到目前为止,这一策略相当成功,美国通胀率有所下降,与此同时,据国际货币基金组织等观察机构预测,2023年美国经济仍将继续增长。

旅行住宿预定网站缤客(Booking Holdings)首席执行官兼总裁格伦·福格尔表示,他的公司必须在宏观经济环境和未来业务需求间取得平衡。对于缤客来说,主要关注点在于不断加速的技术创新,福格尔特别指出最近人工智能和聊天机器人ChatGPT的热潮。

“你必须要有不仅仅关注下一个季度业绩的勇气。”福格尔说:“旅游业的增长往往比GDP快一点。所以我总是说,‘不要太过于担心短期形势。我们要确保着眼长远。’”

加密资产管理公司Grayscale Investments的首席执行官迈克尔·索内谢恩也喜欢着眼长远。他进入加密货币行业已有9年,他说在加密货币交易所FTX高调破产后,业内出现了很多噪音,甚至是不信任。但他认为,这是相关人员的失败所致,并非整个加密市场出现衰败的迹象。

索内谢恩说:“不要因为热点新闻分心。”他经常提醒团队,要专注于Grayscale作为一个组织试图构建的目标,以及“关于加密货币的日常争论不应削弱我们对此类资产的长期信念。”

对于轮胎制造商米其林(Michelin)而言,正是长期思维让这家制造业巨头经受了五年计划重点关注的三个关键杠杆。米其林北美总裁兼首席执行官亚历克西斯·加辛表示,这三大杠杆——关注客户、加速工厂数字化、投资于劳动力——也降低了整体成本。

咨询公司Slalom的首席执行官布莱德·杰克逊说,他认为许多高管都希望出现短期衰退,因为这样可以重置投资者和员工的预期。他认为,如果公司希望未来发展更好,需要进行更广泛的文化重置,要更加清醒地专注于客户和员工。

“我希望看到人们对长期投资的意识提升,认识到它们对公司市盈率和估值的影响。”杰克逊说, “如今,人们对这个话题的讨论并不多。”

塔塔咨询服务公司(Tata Consultancy Services)北美地区董事长苏雷什•穆图斯瓦米说,即使美国经历短期衰退,企业可能会削减成本以应对衰退,但这不应影响员工招聘。他说,如果打击了士气,结果甚至可能适得其反。

穆图斯瓦米在提到他与客户的谈话时表示:“他们最不愿削减的投资是技术。”

人工智能驱动的软件领导力平台Indiggo的首席执行官贾宁·吉尔巴特称,领导者知道社会总是处于变革中,不确定性永远存在。她反问,这将落在谁的肩膀上?她的观点是:大部分责任都会落在疲惫不堪的中层经理和执行领导层的肩膀上。

“我们需要维持平衡,一方面是实施能快速见效的方案,另一方面是以未来为导向进行组织建设。” 吉尔巴特说,“把转型、创新和变革结合在一起是一项非常困难的工作。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

普华永道(PwC)在来自100多个国家和地区的4400多名首席执行官中进行了调查,发现全球近75%的高管预计2023年经济增长将会下降。与普华永道两年前的调查相比,人们的看法发生了彻底逆转。当时,四分之三的首席执行官表态乐观。

如今,首席执行官们正在应对短期经济阵痛与长期转型以保持竞争力之间的紧张关系。普华永道的年度全球首席执行官调查显示,近40%的首席执行官认为,如果继续维持现有经营模式,本公司经济将在10年内难以维系。

“我的建议是:让你的公司胜任增长,”普华永道美国咨询解决方案副主席、联合主管和全球咨询主管穆罕默德•坎德在周三的《财富》首席执行官领导力系列活动上说:“尽一切所能优化成本结构,再投资于增长。这种增长需要是技术驱动型增长。这将是未来所在。”

一年多来,美联储官员一直在抗击通胀,不断提高利率,以减缓经济增长,缓解物价上涨。政策制定者期望以一种理想的方式来实现目标,同时只引起温和或短期衰退,甚或完全避免经济衰退。到目前为止,这一策略相当成功,美国通胀率有所下降,与此同时,据国际货币基金组织等观察机构预测,2023年美国经济仍将继续增长。

旅行住宿预定网站缤客(Booking Holdings)首席执行官兼总裁格伦·福格尔表示,他的公司必须在宏观经济环境和未来业务需求间取得平衡。对于缤客来说,主要关注点在于不断加速的技术创新,福格尔特别指出最近人工智能和聊天机器人ChatGPT的热潮。

“你必须要有不仅仅关注下一个季度业绩的勇气。”福格尔说:“旅游业的增长往往比GDP快一点。所以我总是说,‘不要太过于担心短期形势。我们要确保着眼长远。’”

加密资产管理公司Grayscale Investments的首席执行官迈克尔·索内谢恩也喜欢着眼长远。他进入加密货币行业已有9年,他说在加密货币交易所FTX高调破产后,业内出现了很多噪音,甚至是不信任。但他认为,这是相关人员的失败所致,并非整个加密市场出现衰败的迹象。

索内谢恩说:“不要因为热点新闻分心。”他经常提醒团队,要专注于Grayscale作为一个组织试图构建的目标,以及“关于加密货币的日常争论不应削弱我们对此类资产的长期信念。”

对于轮胎制造商米其林(Michelin)而言,正是长期思维让这家制造业巨头经受了五年计划重点关注的三个关键杠杆。米其林北美总裁兼首席执行官亚历克西斯·加辛表示,这三大杠杆——关注客户、加速工厂数字化、投资于劳动力——也降低了整体成本。

咨询公司Slalom的首席执行官布莱德·杰克逊说,他认为许多高管都希望出现短期衰退,因为这样可以重置投资者和员工的预期。他认为,如果公司希望未来发展更好,需要进行更广泛的文化重置,要更加清醒地专注于客户和员工。

“我希望看到人们对长期投资的意识提升,认识到它们对公司市盈率和估值的影响。”杰克逊说, “如今,人们对这个话题的讨论并不多。”

塔塔咨询服务公司(Tata Consultancy Services)北美地区董事长苏雷什•穆图斯瓦米说,即使美国经历短期衰退,企业可能会削减成本以应对衰退,但这不应影响员工招聘。他说,如果打击了士气,结果甚至可能适得其反。

穆图斯瓦米在提到他与客户的谈话时表示:“他们最不愿削减的投资是技术。”

人工智能驱动的软件领导力平台Indiggo的首席执行官贾宁·吉尔巴特称,领导者知道社会总是处于变革中,不确定性永远存在。她反问,这将落在谁的肩膀上?她的观点是:大部分责任都会落在疲惫不堪的中层经理和执行领导层的肩膀上。

“我们需要维持平衡,一方面是实施能快速见效的方案,另一方面是以未来为导向进行组织建设。” 吉尔巴特说,“把转型、创新和变革结合在一起是一项非常困难的工作。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

When PwC surveyed over 4,400 CEOS from more than 100 countries and territories, it discovered that nearly 75% of the world’s top executives are expecting a drop in growth in 2023. But in the surveys conducted by PwC in the two years prior, there was a complete flip in perception. Three out of every four CEOs had expressed optimism.

Today, CEOs are managing the tension that exists between short-term economic pain and the long-term mandate to transform to remain competitive. Nearly 40% of CEOs think their company won’t be economically viable in a decade if they continue with business as usual, according to PwC’s annual global CEO survey.

“My advice: get your company fit for growth,” says Mohamed Kande, vice chair for U.S. consulting solutions and co-leader and global advisory leader at PwC, during Fortune’s CEO Leadership Series on Wednesday. “Do all the cost structuring that needs to be done and reinvest in growth. And that growth needs to be powered by technology. That will be the future.”

For more than a year, Federal Reserve officials have been fighting inflation and have consistently hiked interest rates in a bid to slow the economy to ease price increases. But policymakers are aiming to do so in a manner that would ideally result in a gentle or short term recession, or perhaps avoid an economic downturn completely. The strategy has thus far been fairly successful, with the U.S. seeing inflation lessen but economic growth still projected in 2023 by observers like the International Monetary Fund.

Glenn Fogel, CEO and president of online travel agency Booking Holdings, says his company must balance the macroeconomic environment with the future needs of his business. For Booking.com, that’s largely focused on the acceleration of tech innovations, with Fogel pointing to the recent buzz surrounding A.I. and chatbot ChatGPT.

“You have to have the courage not to just look at the next quarter,” says Fogel. “Travel will pretty much grow a little bit faster than GDP. So I have to always say, ‘Let’s not worry too much about the short term. Let’s be sure we are going for the long term.’”

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO at crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments, also likes to think long term. He’s been in the crypto business for nine years and says the industry has seen a lot of noise and even mistrust in the wake of the high-profile bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX. But he says that’s a failure of the people involved, not an indictment of the entire crypto market.

“Don’t get distracted by the headlines,” says Sonnenshein. He says he reminds his team to focus on what Grayscale is trying to build as an organization and that the “day-to-day debates about crypto shouldn’t take away from the long term conviction we have around the asset class.”

At tire maker Michelin, longer-term thinking also led the manufacturing giant to outlive three key levers that are the focus of a five-year plan. Alexis Garcin, president and CEO of Michelin North America, says all three—a focus on customers, accelerating the digitization of factories, and investing in their workforce—are also bringing down costs overall.

Brad Jackson, CEO of consulting firm Slalom, says that he thinks many executives want a short-term recession, as it would allow them to reset expectations with investors and their employees. He thinks companies that will do well in the future need to have a broader cultural reset, with a keen focus on customers and their employees.

“I’d like to see more consciousness of long-term investments and how they impact the multiple and valuations for companies,” says Jackson. “That’s not getting talked about much today.”

Even if the U.S. experiences a short-term recession, Tata Consultancy Services North America Chairman Suresh Muthuswami says that while companies may cut costs to be recession ready, it shouldn’t affect employee engagement. He says that hurting morale could even be counterproductive.

“Technology is the last thing they are cutting,” says Muthuswami, when referencing conversations he has had with clients.

Janeen Gelbart, CEO at A.I.-driven software leadership platform Indiggo, says leaders know that society is always in a period of change and that uncertainty will always exist. And she rhetorically asked, whose shoulders does this land on. Her view: much of the responsibility lies on the shoulders of burnt out middle managers and executive leadership.

“We need a balance of having some quick wins, and at the same time, building our organizations for the future,” says Gelbart. “That mix of transformation, innovation, and change is very hard.”

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