路透社上周对经济学家所做的调查显示,预计1月的通胀率将比去年12月提高0.4%,而不含不稳定的食品和能源价格的核心通胀也可能提高0.4%。汽油价格上涨和全经济领域的黏性价格,是导致美国通胀居高不下的原因之一,并且可能使美联储(Federal Reserve)更加确信,应对物价上涨的工作远未结束。
本周通胀上升的报告可能令市场感到紧张,人们不确定美联储会继续小幅加息,还是采取更激进的措施给经济降温。但曾荣获诺贝尔奖的经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼却认为,周二的数据可能并不代表整体通胀状况。
克鲁格曼周日在一条推文中预测,通胀会“明显提高”,但他表示周二的报告可能缺少准确预测未来通胀趋势的足够数据。克鲁格曼写道,虽然报告会显示物价有所上涨,但 “物价上涨的原因,并不会告诉我们应对通胀的措施取得的实际效果。”
未来的通胀趋势
预测通胀趋势是一项高风险的游戏,过去几年已经有许多经济学家在这个问题上出现失误。克鲁格曼也承认自己在2021年曾经犯过错误。当时,他和其他经济学家们预测,通货膨胀将是一个短期因素,美国经济很快就能摆脱它的影响。
虽然有经济学家警告,去年大幅上涨的通货膨胀需要一次严重经济衰退和失业率大幅升高才能解决,但克鲁格曼依旧乐观的认为美联储有机会实现经济软着陆和避免深度衰退,而今年到目前为止相对健康的经济状况验证了他的预测。
虽然最近有一些好消息,但抑制通胀是一个漫长的过程,而且在这个过程中不可避免会遭遇挫折。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示:“降低通胀的通货紧缩过程已经开始。”但他又表示:“未来有很长的路要走。现在只是初期阶段。”
本月的通胀上涨预期,要归咎于部分商品价格经过几个月下跌之后开始上涨,而物价下跌可能是临时现象。克鲁格曼提到了最近二手车价格的反弹。2022年,二手车价格下跌了15%,而在去年12月至今年1月上涨了2.5%。自上个月以来,汽油价格也上涨了约4%,而在去年,由于俄乌冲突扰乱了能源市场,汽油价格达到了最高水平。
克鲁格曼写道,这种趋势表明,过去几个月使通胀下降的临时因素正在消失,导致物价上涨。但这并不意味着通胀会像去年夏天一样,再次大幅升高到40年新高。
例如,美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)用于统计房价的住房成本,从统计上看可能较高,具有欺骗性。美国住房成本在2021年和2022年初大幅飙升,但在过去几个月已经显著下降,但官方住房成本将通胀计算考虑在内,预计在未来几个月还将维持在较高水平,因为房价统计通常滞后于实际市场成本。
对于本周的报告,分析师们预测,虽然通胀必定会上升,但这并不意味着应对物价上涨的努力已经失败。私人财富管理公司Glenmede的首席投资官贾森·普莱德对《财富》杂志表示,虽然房价和劳动力市场紧张会继续带来通胀上行压力,“但在深层次上,推高CPI的许多周期性因素似乎正在朝着正确的方向变化。”
劳工统计局最近调整了在不同年份评估物价变动的频率,也可能导致本周公布的通胀数据高于预期,但这并不意味着美联储降低通胀的计划已经失败。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师在上周的一份报告中写道:“1月,核心通胀应该会再次升高,核心商品的通货紧缩暂停,而方法调整提高了住房成本。更新后的指数权重会增加物价波动,但我们认为一月份之后,抑制通胀的工作不会受到影响。”
摩根士丹利的分析师表示,上个月物价上涨表明,将通胀限制在可控水平,是一个漫长的过程,并且不会一帆风顺,但整体而言,事情依旧在按计划进行。
克鲁格曼写道:“我的基准观点是,经济依旧过热,这种情况难以为继,而通货膨胀大幅下降,但可能仍高于目标水平。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
路透社上周对经济学家所做的调查显示,预计1月的通胀率将比去年12月提高0.4%,而不含不稳定的食品和能源价格的核心通胀也可能提高0.4%。汽油价格上涨和全经济领域的黏性价格,是导致美国通胀居高不下的原因之一,并且可能使美联储(Federal Reserve)更加确信,应对物价上涨的工作远未结束。
本周通胀上升的报告可能令市场感到紧张,人们不确定美联储会继续小幅加息,还是采取更激进的措施给经济降温。但曾荣获诺贝尔奖的经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼却认为,周二的数据可能并不代表整体通胀状况。
克鲁格曼周日在一条推文中预测,通胀会“明显提高”,但他表示周二的报告可能缺少准确预测未来通胀趋势的足够数据。克鲁格曼写道,虽然报告会显示物价有所上涨,但 “物价上涨的原因,并不会告诉我们应对通胀的措施取得的实际效果。”
未来的通胀趋势
预测通胀趋势是一项高风险的游戏,过去几年已经有许多经济学家在这个问题上出现失误。克鲁格曼也承认自己在2021年曾经犯过错误。当时,他和其他经济学家们预测,通货膨胀将是一个短期因素,美国经济很快就能摆脱它的影响。
虽然有经济学家警告,去年大幅上涨的通货膨胀需要一次严重经济衰退和失业率大幅升高才能解决,但克鲁格曼依旧乐观的认为美联储有机会实现经济软着陆和避免深度衰退,而今年到目前为止相对健康的经济状况验证了他的预测。
虽然最近有一些好消息,但抑制通胀是一个漫长的过程,而且在这个过程中不可避免会遭遇挫折。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示:“降低通胀的通货紧缩过程已经开始。”但他又表示:“未来有很长的路要走。现在只是初期阶段。”
本月的通胀上涨预期,要归咎于部分商品价格经过几个月下跌之后开始上涨,而物价下跌可能是临时现象。克鲁格曼提到了最近二手车价格的反弹。2022年,二手车价格下跌了15%,而在去年12月至今年1月上涨了2.5%。自上个月以来,汽油价格也上涨了约4%,而在去年,由于俄乌冲突扰乱了能源市场,汽油价格达到了最高水平。
克鲁格曼写道,这种趋势表明,过去几个月使通胀下降的临时因素正在消失,导致物价上涨。但这并不意味着通胀会像去年夏天一样,再次大幅升高到40年新高。
例如,美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)用于统计房价的住房成本,从统计上看可能较高,具有欺骗性。美国住房成本在2021年和2022年初大幅飙升,但在过去几个月已经显著下降,但官方住房成本将通胀计算考虑在内,预计在未来几个月还将维持在较高水平,因为房价统计通常滞后于实际市场成本。
对于本周的报告,分析师们预测,虽然通胀必定会上升,但这并不意味着应对物价上涨的努力已经失败。私人财富管理公司Glenmede的首席投资官贾森·普莱德对《财富》杂志表示,虽然房价和劳动力市场紧张会继续带来通胀上行压力,“但在深层次上,推高CPI的许多周期性因素似乎正在朝着正确的方向变化。”
劳工统计局最近调整了在不同年份评估物价变动的频率,也可能导致本周公布的通胀数据高于预期,但这并不意味着美联储降低通胀的计划已经失败。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师在上周的一份报告中写道:“1月,核心通胀应该会再次升高,核心商品的通货紧缩暂停,而方法调整提高了住房成本。更新后的指数权重会增加物价波动,但我们认为一月份之后,抑制通胀的工作不会受到影响。”
摩根士丹利的分析师表示,上个月物价上涨表明,将通胀限制在可控水平,是一个漫长的过程,并且不会一帆风顺,但整体而言,事情依旧在按计划进行。
克鲁格曼写道:“我的基准观点是,经济依旧过热,这种情况难以为继,而通货膨胀大幅下降,但可能仍高于目标水平。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Inflation in January likely rose 0.4% from December, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, may also be up 0.4%, according to a Reuters survey of economists last week. Rising gasoline costs and sticky prices throughout the economy are partly responsible for inflation’s staying power in the U.S., and will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s view that the fight against rising prices is far from over.
A hot inflation report this week could leave markets jittery about whether the Fed will stay the course with smaller interest rate hikes or go for more aggressive action to cool the economy. But Tuesday’s numbers may not be telling the whole story about inflation, according to Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Krugman.
In a tweet Sunday, Krugman forecasted “a significant uptick” in inflation, but added that Tuesday’s report likely will lack enough data to accurately predict inflation’s future path. While the report will likely show prices have risen, Krugman wrote, it will be “for reasons that tell us little about how we’re actually doing on inflation.”
Where inflation goes from here
Predicting inflation’s trajectory is a risky game that has tripped up many economists over the past few years. Krugman himself has admitted making mistakes in 2021, when he and other economists forecasted inflation to be a fleeting factor in the U.S. economy that would wane soon enough.
But while some economists warned that soaring inflation last year would require a severe recession and a sharp rise in unemployment to fix, Krugman remained optimistic about the Fed’s chances of engineering a soft landing and averting a deep recession, predictions that have so far been validated by the economy’s relative health this year.
The road to taming inflation is a long one, however, despite recent positive news, and bumps along it are almost inevitable. “The disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week, but added: “It has a long way to go. These are the very early stages.”
Inflation’s expected rise this month will come down to prices for some items rising after months of declines, which may have been temporary. Krugman pointed to a recent reversal in used car prices, which rose 2.5% between December and January after falling 15% in 2022. Gasoline prices have also risen around 4% since last month, ending months of declines since prices peaked last year when the Ukraine War scrambled energy markets.
What all this points to is that temporary factors that kept inflation down for the past few months are fading, Krugman wrote, leading to an uptick in prices. But this doesn’t necessarily mean inflation is set to soar to another 40-year high as it did last summer.
Shelter costs for one, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to measure housing prices, may be deceivingly high on paper. U.S. housing costs have fallen significantly in the past few months after soaring in 2021 and early 2022, but the official shelter costs that factor into inflation calculations are expected to stay high for the next few months, as housing price measurements tend to lag behind actual market costs.
In anticipation of this week’s report, analysts have said that while inflation is set for an uptick it does not mean the fight against rising prices has been lost. While shelter prices and a tight labor market will continue applying upward pressure to inflation, “underneath the surface, many of the cyclical subcomponents driving CPI appear to be headed in the right direction,” Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede, told Fortune.
A recent adjustment to how often the BLS weighs price changes in different years may also lead to a higher-than-expected inflation reading this week, but it doesn’t mean the Fed’s plan to reduce inflation has been tainted.
“Core inflation should move higher again in January as core goods deflation takes a pause and methodological changes boost the housing component,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note last week. “Updated index weights could inject additional volatility, but we see the path to disinflation intact beyond January.”
An uptick in prices last month would show that the path to bringing inflation to manageable levels is a long and uneven one, but by and large things are still going to plan, the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
“My baseline view is that the economy is still probably running unsustainably hot, and that inflation is down substantially but probably running above target,” Krugman wrote.