2022年11月,Roubini Macro Associates的首席执行官努里埃尔·鲁比尼接受《财富》杂志采访时的观点,可谓是坐实了他“末日博士”的外号。鲁比尼警告说,全球经济正在因为不断上升的公私债务、顽固不降的通货膨胀、激进的加息以及其他一系列“巨大威胁”而面临“一场另一个版本的大萧条”。
在长达一个多小时的采访中,有一小段关键的谈话并未出现在最终发表的版本里,但今天看来却一语中的。鲁比尼警告道,如果某个经济部门出现了债务和盈利问题,这些问题“可能演变成一场银行业危机”。
他的话很有先见之明:硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)和签名银行(Signature Bank)于上周先后倒闭。两家银行都和目前正在苦苦支撑的科技初创公司及加密生态系统紧密相关。尽管监管机构在上周末已经介入,出手救助这两家银行的储户,但鲁比尼仍然认为银行业危机远未结束。
美联储(Federal Reserve)在3月12日宣布,美国联邦存款保险公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)将“全额保护(硅谷银行和签名银行的)全部储户,无论此前有无投保”,并在另一份声明中以适用“系统性风险例外条款”作为采取上述行动的理由。但鲁比尼在3月13日接受《新闻周刊》(Newsweek)采访时警告道,“全球蔓延”存在“自然滞后”,监管机构不可能永远充当救世主。
只是地区性银行的问题?
鲁比尼于3月13日表示,硅谷银行和签名银行的问题可能会蔓延至储户规模较小、证券价值缩水的美国其他地区性银行。他同时也是纽约大学(New York University)斯特恩商学院(Stern School of Business)的名誉教授。他指出,如果这些银行遭遇储户挤兑,从而不得不以当前市价出售所持资产,将会是一场灾难——就像硅谷和签名银行一样。他认为:“挤兑可能会继续,危机还没有结束。”
鲁比尼还说,他预计目前地区性银行的问题暂时不会蔓延到美国大型银行或更广泛的金融体系,持这种观点的并非只有他一个人。投资研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官戴维·特雷纳在3月10日向《财富》杂志表示,他认为硅谷银行的破产不会对整个银行业造成“蔓延性风险”,“大银行的存款基础比硅谷银行更加多元,财务状况也较为健康。”
部分专家称,一些大银行实际上因为地区性银行出现问题而从中受益,因为储户纷纷涌向更安全的机构。以美国银行(Bank of America)为例,在硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭的过程里,吸收了超过150亿美元的存款。
但鲁比尼于3月13日做出了另外一个有先见之明的预测,在这个预测中,全球银行业的前景就没有如此美丽了。他说,随着利率上抬,一家大型欧洲银行可能会出现问题。他好像又说对了。
一个可能引发全球“蔓延”的新威胁
3月15日,瑞士一家银行瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)在其最大股东沙特国家银行(Saudi National bank)表示不再继续注资后股价大跌逾20%。瑞信的问题导致欧洲银行股于3月13日大幅下挫,欧洲斯托克银行指数(Euro Stoxx Bank Index)大跌8.3%。这正是鲁比尼此前担心可能会发生的事情,尽管他并未点名到底是哪家银行。
“欧洲至少有一家金融机构长期资本不足,在资本调整方面存在问题,可能有一些不良资产、一些长期证券敞口和未实现亏损。”他在3月13日告诉《新闻周刊》:“如果这家机构出了什么问题……就将产生更重大的系统性影响——因为我们说的是拥有数万亿美元资产的机构,而不是只有4,000亿美元的硅谷银行。”
瑞信早就面临问题,那时硅谷银行和签名银行还没有倒闭。2022年最后一个季度,该银行客户共计从其财富管理业务利润中心取走价值1,190亿美元的资产,而且因为对冲基金Archegos在2022年倒闭,高管们被迫计入了与该基金相关的55亿美元亏损。现在,据鲁比尼说,在其第二大主要投资者、Harris Associates的戴维·赫罗在本月早些时候出售了所持股份之后,瑞信已经处于失败的边缘。
“问题在于,按照某些标准,瑞信可能大而不倒,但也同样因为太大而救不了。目前还不清楚……联邦系统是否有足够的资源来实施救助。”这位经济学家在3月15日向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,如果瑞信没有获得资金注入,“糟糕的事情就会发生”。
在鲁比尼发表上述言论之前,瑞士信贷的首席执行官乌尔里希·科尔纳在3月14日表示,瑞士信贷的情况与硅谷银行非常不同,“标准更高,而且有实质性区别”。他还指出,在美国地区性银行出现问题之际,该行出现了客户流入。瑞信的董事长阿克塞尔·莱曼于3月15日向彭博社表示,该行不需要任何政府援助就能够继续运营。
但在2022年11月接受《财富》杂志采访时,鲁比尼警告称,如果大银行内爆引发银行业危机,可能就会蔓延至政府部门和更广泛的经济领域。
“银行业危机会在银行间形成恶性循环,可能演变成主权债务危机。”他说,“问题是,你无法轻易地将某个经济部门与另一个部门隔离开,它们都是相互关联的。”
鲁比尼长期以来一直认为,深度衰退是全球经济最有可能面临的结局。他在本周表示,最近的银行问题意味着,“硬着陆”现在也“显然不可避免”。
“维持经济稳定、抗击通胀需要大幅提高政策利率。但现在,金融稳定风险要求降低政策利率。所以我们将面临一场危机。”他于3月15日在推特(Twitter)上写道。(财富中文网)
译者:Agatha
2022年11月,Roubini Macro Associates的首席执行官努里埃尔·鲁比尼接受《财富》杂志采访时的观点,可谓是坐实了他“末日博士”的外号。鲁比尼警告说,全球经济正在因为不断上升的公私债务、顽固不降的通货膨胀、激进的加息以及其他一系列“巨大威胁”而面临“一场另一个版本的大萧条”。
在长达一个多小时的采访中,有一小段关键的谈话并未出现在最终发表的版本里,但今天看来却一语中的。鲁比尼警告道,如果某个经济部门出现了债务和盈利问题,这些问题“可能演变成一场银行业危机”。
他的话很有先见之明:硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)和签名银行(Signature Bank)于上周先后倒闭。两家银行都和目前正在苦苦支撑的科技初创公司及加密生态系统紧密相关。尽管监管机构在上周末已经介入,出手救助这两家银行的储户,但鲁比尼仍然认为银行业危机远未结束。
美联储(Federal Reserve)在3月12日宣布,美国联邦存款保险公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)将“全额保护(硅谷银行和签名银行的)全部储户,无论此前有无投保”,并在另一份声明中以适用“系统性风险例外条款”作为采取上述行动的理由。但鲁比尼在3月13日接受《新闻周刊》(Newsweek)采访时警告道,“全球蔓延”存在“自然滞后”,监管机构不可能永远充当救世主。
只是地区性银行的问题?
鲁比尼于3月13日表示,硅谷银行和签名银行的问题可能会蔓延至储户规模较小、证券价值缩水的美国其他地区性银行。他同时也是纽约大学(New York University)斯特恩商学院(Stern School of Business)的名誉教授。他指出,如果这些银行遭遇储户挤兑,从而不得不以当前市价出售所持资产,将会是一场灾难——就像硅谷和签名银行一样。他认为:“挤兑可能会继续,危机还没有结束。”
鲁比尼还说,他预计目前地区性银行的问题暂时不会蔓延到美国大型银行或更广泛的金融体系,持这种观点的并非只有他一个人。投资研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官戴维·特雷纳在3月10日向《财富》杂志表示,他认为硅谷银行的破产不会对整个银行业造成“蔓延性风险”,“大银行的存款基础比硅谷银行更加多元,财务状况也较为健康。”
部分专家称,一些大银行实际上因为地区性银行出现问题而从中受益,因为储户纷纷涌向更安全的机构。以美国银行(Bank of America)为例,在硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭的过程里,吸收了超过150亿美元的存款。
但鲁比尼于3月13日做出了另外一个有先见之明的预测,在这个预测中,全球银行业的前景就没有如此美丽了。他说,随着利率上抬,一家大型欧洲银行可能会出现问题。他好像又说对了。
一个可能引发全球“蔓延”的新威胁
3月15日,瑞士一家银行瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)在其最大股东沙特国家银行(Saudi National bank)表示不再继续注资后股价大跌逾20%。瑞信的问题导致欧洲银行股于3月13日大幅下挫,欧洲斯托克银行指数(Euro Stoxx Bank Index)大跌8.3%。这正是鲁比尼此前担心可能会发生的事情,尽管他并未点名到底是哪家银行。
“欧洲至少有一家金融机构长期资本不足,在资本调整方面存在问题,可能有一些不良资产、一些长期证券敞口和未实现亏损。”他在3月13日告诉《新闻周刊》:“如果这家机构出了什么问题……就将产生更重大的系统性影响——因为我们说的是拥有数万亿美元资产的机构,而不是只有4,000亿美元的硅谷银行。”
瑞信早就面临问题,那时硅谷银行和签名银行还没有倒闭。2022年最后一个季度,该银行客户共计从其财富管理业务利润中心取走价值1,190亿美元的资产,而且因为对冲基金Archegos在2022年倒闭,高管们被迫计入了与该基金相关的55亿美元亏损。现在,据鲁比尼说,在其第二大主要投资者、Harris Associates的戴维·赫罗在本月早些时候出售了所持股份之后,瑞信已经处于失败的边缘。
“问题在于,按照某些标准,瑞信可能大而不倒,但也同样因为太大而救不了。目前还不清楚……联邦系统是否有足够的资源来实施救助。”这位经济学家在3月15日向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,如果瑞信没有获得资金注入,“糟糕的事情就会发生”。
在鲁比尼发表上述言论之前,瑞士信贷的首席执行官乌尔里希·科尔纳在3月14日表示,瑞士信贷的情况与硅谷银行非常不同,“标准更高,而且有实质性区别”。他还指出,在美国地区性银行出现问题之际,该行出现了客户流入。瑞信的董事长阿克塞尔·莱曼于3月15日向彭博社表示,该行不需要任何政府援助就能够继续运营。
但在2022年11月接受《财富》杂志采访时,鲁比尼警告称,如果大银行内爆引发银行业危机,可能就会蔓延至政府部门和更广泛的经济领域。
“银行业危机会在银行间形成恶性循环,可能演变成主权债务危机。”他说,“问题是,你无法轻易地将某个经济部门与另一个部门隔离开,它们都是相互关联的。”
鲁比尼长期以来一直认为,深度衰退是全球经济最有可能面临的结局。他在本周表示,最近的银行问题意味着,“硬着陆”现在也“显然不可避免”。
“维持经济稳定、抗击通胀需要大幅提高政策利率。但现在,金融稳定风险要求降低政策利率。所以我们将面临一场危机。”他于3月15日在推特(Twitter)上写道。(财富中文网)
译者:Agatha
In November, Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, lived up to his nickname in an interview with Fortune. “Dr. Doom” warned that the global economy was facing a “variant of another Great Depression” due to rising public and private debts, stubborn inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and a number of other “mega threats.”
A key excerpt from the more than hour-long interview that didn’t make the final edit seems relevant today. Roubini warned that when one sector of the economy has problems with debt and profitability, those problems “can morph into a banking crisis.”
After Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank—which were both heavily exposed to the now struggling tech startup and crypto ecosystems—collapsed last week, his words seem prescient. And despite regulators stepping in to save depositors at both banks over the weekend, Roubini still believes the banking crisis is far from over.
The Federal Reserve announced on March 12 that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will “fully protect all depositors, both insured and uninsured” at SVB and Signature, citing the “systemic risk exception” as the reason for their actions in a separate statement. But Roubini warned in a Newsweek interview on March 13 that there is a “natural lag” to “global contagion,” and regulators can’t always save the day.
Just a regional bank issue?
Roubini, who is also a professor emeritus at NYU’s Stern School of Business, said on March 13 that SVB and Signature’s problems could spread to U.S. regional banks that have smaller depositor bases and securities that have lost value. He noted that if these banks are forced to sell their holdings at the current market value as depositors request their money back, it could be a disaster—just like it was for SVB and Signature. “The run may continue,” he argued. “The crisis is not over.”
Roubini added that he doesn’t foresee regional banks’ issues spreading to large U.S. banks or the wider financial system for now, however, and he isn’t alone in this view. David Trainer, the CEO of the investment research firm New Constructs, told Fortune on March 10 that he doesn’t see “contagion risk” for the entire banking sector after SVB’s collapse, adding that the “deposit base from the major banks is much more diversified than SVB and the big banks are in good financial health.”
A number of experts have argued that some larger banks are actually benefiting from regional bank issues as depositors flock to safer pastures. Bank of America, for example, raked in over $15 billion in deposits amid SVB and Signature’s downfall.
But Roubini made another prescient prediction on March 13 that doesn’t paint such a rosy picture for banks globally. A large European bank may face issues as interest rates rise, he said. And again, it looks like he was right.
A new threat and that risks global “contagion”
On March 15, shares of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse tanked more than 20% after its largest shareholder—the Saudi National Bank—said it wouldn’t inject more money into the bank. Credit Suisse’s issues sent shares of European banks down sharply on March 15, with the Euro Stoxx Bank Index dropping 8.3%. It’s exactly what Roubini feared might happen, although he played coy about the exact bank he was talking about.
“There is at least one financial institution in Europe that has been historically undercapitalized, have had problems of recapitalizing, might have some bad assets, some exposures to long-term securities and unrealized losses,” he told Newsweek on March 13. “If something were to happen with this institution…that will be much more systemically important—we’re speaking about institutions with trillions of dollars of assets, not $400 billion like SVB.”
Credit Suisse faced issues long before the collapse of SVB and Signature. Clients pulled $119 billion in assets from the bank’s wealth management business profit center during the final quarter in 2022, and execs were forced to book a $5.5 billion loss tied to the hedge fund Archegos, which collapsed last year. Now, after a second major investor, Harris Associates’ David Herro, sold his shares earlier this month, Credit Suisse is on the verge of failure, according to Roubini.
“The problem is that Credit Suisse, by some standards, might be too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. It’s not clear that…the Federal system has enough resources to engineer a bail out,” the economist told Bloomberg on March 15, adding that if Credit Suisse doesn’t get an infusion of capital from somewhere “bad things can happen.”
Roubini’s comments come after Credit Suisse’s CEO, Ulrich Koerner, said on March 14 that his bank is in a very different situation than SVB and has “materially different and higher standards.” He also noted that the bank saw client inflows amid U.S. regional banks’ problems. And Credit Suisse’s chairman, Axel Lehmann, told Bloomberg on March 15 the bank wouldn’t need any government assistance to continue operating.
But In his November interview with Fortune, Roubini warned that if we get a banking crisis from a big bank implosion, it could spread to governments and the wider economy.
“A banking crisis can morph into a debt crisis for the sovereign, in a doom loop between the banks,” he said. “The problem is you cannot easily isolate one sector of the economy from another, they’re all interconnected.”
Roubini, who has long held that a deep recession is the most likely outcome for the global economy, said this week that banks’ recent issues mean a “hard landing” is now “clearly unavoidable” as well.
“Economic stability and fighting inflation require raising policy rates much higher. But now financial stability risks require lower policy rates. So we will get a crisis,” he said in a March 15 tweet.