斯坦·奥克洛布齐亚和他的伴侣萨拉·博伊德住在洛杉矶小东京的一套一居室公寓里,他意识到自己很幸运。他在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“就我们俩的收入而言,属于高收入阶层的最高档位。”他还补充说,他们的年收入约为22.5万美元。但他们是租房住的,他从不认为这种情况会有所改变。“考虑到住房成本,我们买房简直是天方夜谭,倒不如考虑拥有一艘宇宙飞船。”
他说,他们两个人的薪水都是六位数, 40岁的奥克洛布齐亚是加州大学河滨分校的公共政策客座助理教授,他的伴侣35岁,在数字广告行业工作。他们每月支付2400美元的房租,上个月底,他发推文说,“我们能在这里拥有一所房子的想法非常滑稽可笑。”如果一个人的薪水达到六位数,再加上伴侣的收入,年收入超过20万美元,仍然觉得他们在洛杉矶买不起房子,怎么能指望那些收入低于这个水平的人买得起房呢?
当奥克洛布齐亚说他的收入属于高收入阶层的最高档位时,他的说法是准确的。根据人口普查局的数据,截至2021年,洛杉矶的家庭收入中位数为69778美元。根据统计地图(Statistical Atlas)的数据,处于收入前5%的家庭年收入近243000美元,处于收入前20%的家庭年收入为115000美元。与此同时,根据Zillow的数据,洛杉矶的平均房价为891820美元,是美国平均房价的两倍多。
美国住房和城市发展部对经济适用房的定义为“居住者支付的住房费用(包括水电费)不超过总收入的30%”。奥克洛布齐亚和他的伴侣并不是唯一还在租房而不是买房的高收入者。
作为一名公共政策教授,奥克洛布齐亚的研究往往集中在住房政策上,在担任公共政策教授之前,他是加州YIMBY(一个支持相关项目落地的“迎臂效应”倡导组织)的研究主管,该组织称其“致力于通过发起迎臂效应(请到我家后院来)运动来推进相关立法,旨在解决加州的住房短缺问题。”奥克洛布齐亚表示,尽管他的收入增加了,在事业上也取得了进展,但他最终意识到,他没有达到前几代人所达到的里程碑,比如拥有自己的房子。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“千禧一代无法像前几代人那样进入住房市场,这一直被描述为年轻人的典型缺点……而不是研究结构性障碍。”他认为,这些障碍使现有房主更加富有,而让整整一代人(他这一代人)以及历史上面临同样障碍的有色人种和低收入社区陷入贫困的境地。
奥克洛布齐亚给Z世代的建议是?他笑着说:“做好心理准备吧”。
正如奥克洛布齐亚所说,曾经有一段时间,为了适应新需求,洛杉矶加大住房建设,导致“建筑过剩”。他补充说,全美的其他城市也是如此。根据加州交通部的战后住房分析,二战结束后的30年间,美国建造了4000多万套住房,同期仅加州就建造了约600万套住房。但在20世纪70年代和80年代,随着1986年通过的加州《U号提案》(Proposition U,即合理限制倡议)等措施的出台,这种情况走向终点。该提案产生了重大影响,将容积率、建设用地面积以及大多数商业用地的开发面积削减了一半,从而限制了多户住宅的发展。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“洛杉矶大规模减少了建筑规模。因此,在大型地块上建造独户住宅以外的任何房屋都是非法的,如建造多户住宅。”这改变了高密度住房的游戏规则,并引发了短缺危机,从而导致房价上涨。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“我们渴望拥有一些东西。它不需要是独立的单户住宅……但在洛杉矶,建造这种类型的房屋是非法的,而且这在洛杉矶的大部分地区仍然是非法的。我的意思是,如果你看一下洛杉矶的西部地区,40年来那里没有任何变化。”
他不是第一个,也不是最后一个,将美国住房危机——主要是由于住房短缺,导致房价上涨——归咎于无法建造新房屋的人。例如,经济作家诺亚·史密斯(Noah Smith)最近写道,美国“无法建造新事物”,比如住房。建造新房屋往往因未获得许可或违背相关开发规则而停滞不前(因邻避主义者或“别在我家后院”居民反对在居所周边地区建设项目而恶化),从而造成严重后果。
奥克洛布齐亚更进一步,称邻避主义者为“拒绝建造新房屋”。奥克洛布齐亚认为,住房政策是地方政策,因为土地使用政策通常是由地方民选官员制定的。“那些地方民选官员,他们不是通过做正确的事情来赢得连任,”而是通过做那些让他们赢得选票的事情来实现连任。这通常意味着迎合邻避主义者,邻避主义者通常认为高密度住房和新开发将对他们的生活质量或周围环境产生负面影响,并使他们的房产价值下降。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“邻避主义是一股极其强大的力量,不幸的是,美国政治机构的设置方式使得地方民选官员留任的最佳方式就是屈服于邻避主义者。我们不见得非得经历住房危机,我们的选择造就了住房危机。”
根据洛杉矶县的数据,该地区需要增加近50万套经济适用房,以满足目前的需求,这仅针对低收入租房家庭。我们已经看到住房危机在无房人口中造成了怎样的影响。截至去年,洛杉矶县有69144人无家可归。虽然加州州长加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)正在尝试以各种方式解决住房短缺问题,包括宣布计划拨款3000万美元在全州范围内建造小型住宅,并对亨廷顿海滩的附属住宅单元禁令提起诉讼等,但这一危机仍在持续。
奥克洛布齐亚知道,他和他的伴侣在拥有房屋方面有多种选择。这些选择可能不是理想的,但他意识到他们的处境比大多数人都好,这就是为什么他询问住房危机会给那些财务状况比较差的人带来怎样的影响。不过,奥克洛布齐亚说,即使在他向《财富》杂志提出的一种极端假设情况下,他决定买那套售价60万美元、每月HOA费用(物业管理费)为1000美元的一居室,除了每月的开支之外,首付款仍然是个问题。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“我们从哪里拿出这笔首付款?即使有我们现在的收入,也不可能凑出20%的首付款。人们不会有10万美元闲钱。”
每次他和他的伴侣打开Zillow,甚至查看提醒,看看他们是否能拥有自己的房子,奥克洛布齐亚说,这似乎对他们来说很不现实。他拿跑步机做了个类比,说他们感觉像是“为了保持原地不动而冲刺”。今年晚些时候,奥克洛布齐亚将搬到新奥尔良,在杜兰大学担任教授,他说洛杉矶的房市情况在一定程度上促使他做出这一决定。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
斯坦·奥克洛布齐亚和他的伴侣萨拉·博伊德住在洛杉矶小东京的一套一居室公寓里,他意识到自己很幸运。他在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“就我们俩的收入而言,属于高收入阶层的最高档位。”他还补充说,他们的年收入约为22.5万美元。但他们是租房住的,他从不认为这种情况会有所改变。“考虑到住房成本,我们买房简直是天方夜谭,倒不如考虑拥有一艘宇宙飞船。”
他说,他们两个人的薪水都是六位数, 40岁的奥克洛布齐亚是加州大学河滨分校的公共政策客座助理教授,他的伴侣35岁,在数字广告行业工作。他们每月支付2400美元的房租,上个月底,他发推文说,“我们能在这里拥有一所房子的想法非常滑稽可笑。”如果一个人的薪水达到六位数,再加上伴侣的收入,年收入超过20万美元,仍然觉得他们在洛杉矶买不起房子,怎么能指望那些收入低于这个水平的人买得起房呢?
当奥克洛布齐亚说他的收入属于高收入阶层的最高档位时,他的说法是准确的。根据人口普查局的数据,截至2021年,洛杉矶的家庭收入中位数为69778美元。根据统计地图(Statistical Atlas)的数据,处于收入前5%的家庭年收入近243000美元,处于收入前20%的家庭年收入为115000美元。与此同时,根据Zillow的数据,洛杉矶的平均房价为891820美元,是美国平均房价的两倍多。
美国住房和城市发展部对经济适用房的定义为“居住者支付的住房费用(包括水电费)不超过总收入的30%”。奥克洛布齐亚和他的伴侣并不是唯一还在租房而不是买房的高收入者。
作为一名公共政策教授,奥克洛布齐亚的研究往往集中在住房政策上,在担任公共政策教授之前,他是加州YIMBY(一个支持相关项目落地的“迎臂效应”倡导组织)的研究主管,该组织称其“致力于通过发起迎臂效应(请到我家后院来)运动来推进相关立法,旨在解决加州的住房短缺问题。”奥克洛布齐亚表示,尽管他的收入增加了,在事业上也取得了进展,但他最终意识到,他没有达到前几代人所达到的里程碑,比如拥有自己的房子。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“千禧一代无法像前几代人那样进入住房市场,这一直被描述为年轻人的典型缺点……而不是研究结构性障碍。”他认为,这些障碍使现有房主更加富有,而让整整一代人(他这一代人)以及历史上面临同样障碍的有色人种和低收入社区陷入贫困的境地。
奥克洛布齐亚给Z世代的建议是?他笑着说:“做好心理准备吧”。
正如奥克洛布齐亚所说,曾经有一段时间,为了适应新需求,洛杉矶加大住房建设,导致“建筑过剩”。他补充说,全美的其他城市也是如此。根据加州交通部的战后住房分析,二战结束后的30年间,美国建造了4000多万套住房,同期仅加州就建造了约600万套住房。但在20世纪70年代和80年代,随着1986年通过的加州《U号提案》(Proposition U,即合理限制倡议)等措施的出台,这种情况走向终点。该提案产生了重大影响,将容积率、建设用地面积以及大多数商业用地的开发面积削减了一半,从而限制了多户住宅的发展。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“洛杉矶大规模减少了建筑规模。因此,在大型地块上建造独户住宅以外的任何房屋都是非法的,如建造多户住宅。”这改变了高密度住房的游戏规则,并引发了短缺危机,从而导致房价上涨。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“我们渴望拥有一些东西。它不需要是独立的单户住宅……但在洛杉矶,建造这种类型的房屋是非法的,而且这在洛杉矶的大部分地区仍然是非法的。我的意思是,如果你看一下洛杉矶的西部地区,40年来那里没有任何变化。”
他不是第一个,也不是最后一个,将美国住房危机——主要是由于住房短缺,导致房价上涨——归咎于无法建造新房屋的人。例如,经济作家诺亚·史密斯(Noah Smith)最近写道,美国“无法建造新事物”,比如住房。建造新房屋往往因未获得许可或违背相关开发规则而停滞不前(因邻避主义者或“别在我家后院”居民反对在居所周边地区建设项目而恶化),从而造成严重后果。
奥克洛布齐亚更进一步,称邻避主义者为“拒绝建造新房屋”。奥克洛布齐亚认为,住房政策是地方政策,因为土地使用政策通常是由地方民选官员制定的。“那些地方民选官员,他们不是通过做正确的事情来赢得连任,”而是通过做那些让他们赢得选票的事情来实现连任。这通常意味着迎合邻避主义者,邻避主义者通常认为高密度住房和新开发将对他们的生活质量或周围环境产生负面影响,并使他们的房产价值下降。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“邻避主义是一股极其强大的力量,不幸的是,美国政治机构的设置方式使得地方民选官员留任的最佳方式就是屈服于邻避主义者。我们不见得非得经历住房危机,我们的选择造就了住房危机。”
根据洛杉矶县的数据,该地区需要增加近50万套经济适用房,以满足目前的需求,这仅针对低收入租房家庭。我们已经看到住房危机在无房人口中造成了怎样的影响。截至去年,洛杉矶县有69144人无家可归。虽然加州州长加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)正在尝试以各种方式解决住房短缺问题,包括宣布计划拨款3000万美元在全州范围内建造小型住宅,并对亨廷顿海滩的附属住宅单元禁令提起诉讼等,但这一危机仍在持续。
奥克洛布齐亚知道,他和他的伴侣在拥有房屋方面有多种选择。这些选择可能不是理想的,但他意识到他们的处境比大多数人都好,这就是为什么他询问住房危机会给那些财务状况比较差的人带来怎样的影响。不过,奥克洛布齐亚说,即使在他向《财富》杂志提出的一种极端假设情况下,他决定买那套售价60万美元、每月HOA费用(物业管理费)为1000美元的一居室,除了每月的开支之外,首付款仍然是个问题。
奥克洛布齐亚说:“我们从哪里拿出这笔首付款?即使有我们现在的收入,也不可能凑出20%的首付款。人们不会有10万美元闲钱。”
每次他和他的伴侣打开Zillow,甚至查看提醒,看看他们是否能拥有自己的房子,奥克洛布齐亚说,这似乎对他们来说很不现实。他拿跑步机做了个类比,说他们感觉像是“为了保持原地不动而冲刺”。今年晚些时候,奥克洛布齐亚将搬到新奥尔良,在杜兰大学担任教授,他说洛杉矶的房市情况在一定程度上促使他做出这一决定。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Stan Oklobdzija and his partner, Sarah Boyd, live in a one-bedroom condo in Los Angeles’ Little Tokyo, and he realizes he’s lucky. “We are in the top [percent] of incomes, between what I make and what she makes,” he told Fortune, adding that their earnings amount to around $225,000 per year. But they’re renting, and he doesn’t see that ever changing. “With housing costs being what they are, just the idea of us ever owning a home is absolutely, like it’s funny. It’s like, we might as well own a spaceship.”
Each of them makes a six-figure salary, he says, with Oklobdzija, 40, being a visiting assistant professor of public policy at UC Riverside and his partner, 35, working in the digital advertising industry. They pay $2,400 a month in rent, and he tweeted late last month that “the idea that we could ever own a home here is hilarious.” If someone who makes six figures, and together with his partner makes more than $200,000, feels as though they can’t afford a home in Los Angeles, how can we expect it to be affordable for anyone making less than that?
Oklobdzija is right when he says he’s in the top range of salary earners. As of 2021, the median household income in the city of Los Angeles was $69,778, per the Census Bureau. Those in the 95th percentile of household incomes in the city make nearly $243,000 and those in the 80th percentile make $115,000, according to Statistical Atlas. Meanwhile, the average Los Angeles home value is $891,820, per Zillow, more than double the average U.S. home value.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing “as housing on which the occupant is paying no more than 30% of gross income for housing costs, including utilities.” Oklobdzija and his partner aren’t the only high-earners that are still renting instead of owning.
As a professor of public policy, Oklobdzija’s research tends to focus on housing policy, and before this role he was the research director for California YIMBY (a pro-development, “yes-in-my-backyard” advocacy organization), which says it’s “working to pass legislation to end CA’s housing shortage by empowering and growing the YIMBY movement.” Oklobdzija says that despite earning more and advancing in his career, he’s come to eventually realize that he’s not hitting the milestones that previous generations did, like owning a home.
“The inability of millennials to enter into the homeownership market in ways that previous generations have has always been sort of described as some sort of like the inherited failing of young people…rather than looking at these insane structural barriers that are put in place,” Oklobdzija says. Those barriers, he suggests, are making incumbent homeowners far richer while immiserating an entire generation of people (his generation), along with communities of color and lower-income communities that have historically faced those same barriers.
Oklobdzija’s message for Gen Z? “Get ready,” he said with a laugh.
There was a time where Los Angeles built to accommodate new demand, with “just a glut of building,” as Oklobdzija referred to it, adding that the same could be said for cities across the nation. More than 40 million housing units were built in the United States during the 30-year period following the end of World War II, and in California alone approximately 6 million housing units were constructed during the same period, according to a postwar housing analysis by the California Department of Transportation. But that began to end in the 1970s and into the 1980s with measures like Proposition U, passed in 1986, that had a major impact by cutting in half the floor-area ratio, the lot size of a property, and the amount of development permitted for most commercially zoned land, thus limiting development of multifamily housing.
“There was a massive downzoning of Los Angeles,” Oklobdzija says. “So it literally became illegal to build multifamily, it became illegal to build anything other than single-family homes on large lots.” That changed the game for higher-density housing and triggered a scarcity crisis that manifested in higher prices.
“We have a desire to own something. It doesn’t need to be a detached single-family home…But it’s just been illegal in Los Angeles, and still remains illegal in Los Angeles, in most of the city, to construct these types,” Oklobdzija says. “I mean, if you look at the west side of Los Angeles, like nothing has changed there in 40 years.”
He’s not the first or last person to blame the nation’s housing crisis—largely due to its shortage of homes, which sends prices up—on the inability to build. For instance, economics writer Noah Smith recently wrote that America’s “inability to build things,” housing for one, is often stalled because of permitting and developing rules (worsened by NIMBYs or “not-in-my-backyard” antidevelopment residents), and is crippling the country as a result.
Oklobdzija, taking this a step further, called it a “refusal to build.” Oklobdzija argues that housing policy is local policy because land use is typically set by local elected officials. “Those local elected officials, they don’t win reelection by doing the right thing,” but rather by what will get them votes. That often means catering to NIMBYs who typically argue that higher density and new development will negatively affect their quality of life or the surrounding environment—and bring their property values down.
“NIMBY-ism is an extremely potent force,” Oklobdzija says. “And unfortunately, American political institutions are set up such that the best way to stay in office for a local elected official is to cave into the NIMBYs.” Oklobdzija says, “We don’t have to have a housing crisis, we are choosing to have a housing crisis.”
According to Los Angeles County, the region needs to add nearly 500,000 affordable homes to meet current demand, just for lower-income renter households. We’ve seen how this has played out in the unhoused population. As of last year, 69,144 people were experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles County. While California Gov. Gavin Newsom is attempting to address the housing shortage in a variety of ways, including announcing a plan to allocate $30 million to building small homes across the state and filing a lawsuit against Huntington Beach’s ban on accessory dwelling units, to mention a few, the crisis is ongoing.
Oklobdzija knows that he and his partner have options in terms of owning a home. They may not be ideal options, but he realizes they’re in a better position than most, and that’s why he questions what it’s like for those with less means, financially. Nonetheless, Oklobdzija says that even if he decided to buy that $600,000 one-bedroom with $1,000 HOA every month, in a sort of extreme hypothetical situation that he gave Fortune, the down payment would still be an issue aside from monthly costs.
“Where are we going to come up with this down payment? Even with the money that we make, it’s impossible to come up with 20%,” Oklobdzija says. “People don’t just have $100,000 in cash just kind of kicking it.”
Every time he and his partner opened up Zillow, or even looked at alerts, to see if they can make the move into homeownership, Oklobdzija says, it just isn’t something that feels like a reality for them. He gave the analogy of a treadmill, claiming that it feels they’re “sprinting just to stay in place.” Later this year, Oklobdzija is moving to New Orleans for a professorship at Tulane, a move that he said Los Angeles’ market, in part, prompted him to make.