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我们可能正处于“熊市的最后阶段”,投资者可以买入了

Will Daniel
2023-04-29

“熊市即将结束,2023年下半年将迎来令人兴奋的新牛市。”

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2023年3月23日,美国纽约市,交易员在纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)的大厅里工作。图片来源:PHOTO BY SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

世界上的许多大型投资银行都警告说,随着美联储(Federal Reserve)继续与通胀作斗争,在整个2023年股市都很容易受到经济衰退的影响。尽管利率不断上升,预测很悲观,但标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)今年给投资者带来了超过8%的回报,美国经济也表现出了惊人的弹性。亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)目前预计,美国第一季度GDP增速将达到2.5%,此前美国3月的失业率仍然接近3.5%的历史低点。因此,一些华尔街资深人士正在转向看涨。

投资公司Main Street Research的创始人及首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特在4月24日对《财富》杂志表示,他认为股市正处于“熊市的最后阶段,投资者应该买入估值合理的优秀公司的股票。”该公司管理着约20亿美元的资产。

他说:“熊市即将结束,2023年下半年将迎来令人兴奋的新牛市。”他特别指出了科技股的潜力。

在去年暴跌30%之后,科技股在2023年开始复苏,但德默特警告称,该行业仍然存在风险,而且有很多被高估的股票。他表示,一些投资者甚至可能对美联储通过降息来提振科技股的预期“过于乐观”。但这并不意味着没有值得买入的科技公司股票。德默特预计,即使在经济不确定的情况下,包括苹果(Apple)和微软(Microsoft)在内的许多大型科技公司以及网络安全股今年也将达到或超过其盈利预期。

他表示:“我们认为所有投资者都应该有一份股价合理的科技龙头股清单,并将一定现金配置到科技股中。”他补充道,现在是逢低买入的时候。

然而,德默特警告称,不应该大型科技公司“混为一谈”,他指出,亚马逊(Amazon)的市盈率接近80倍,仍然被高估。这位首席投资官表示,投资者应该专注于寻找那些股价/市盈率有吸引力,且拥有“护城河”,能够“在经济萎缩的情况下实现持续盈利”的公司。

伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的董事长沃伦·巴菲特在1995年的一次股东大会上创造了“经济护城河”这一著名的术语。它指的是一家公司通过规模经济、技术专长、高启动成本或其他一些因素保持竞争优势的能力。或者正如巴菲特在1999年《财富》杂志的一篇文章中所说的那样:

“投资的关键不在于评估一个行业将对社会产生多大的影响,或者其增长空间有多大,而在于确定任何特定公司的竞争优势,最重要的是,这种优势的持久性。那些拥有宽广的、可持续的护城河的产品或服务,才会给投资者带来回报。”

德默特也不是唯一一位看好拥有“护城河”的龙头的人。美国银行(Bank of America)的股票策略师萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安在4月24日的一份研究报告中列出了对股票近期前景持乐观态度的10大理由。她解释说,市场倾向于在夏季反弹;生产力出现强劲增长,“这对利润率来说是一个好兆头”;私募股权公司在熊市中积累了接近创纪录的2.2万亿美元的“基金备用金”,它们可以用这些“基金备用金”买入股票,这样一来应该会推高股价。

在对潜在经济衰退的担忧中,苏布拉马尼安告诉投资者不要担心,美联储有能力通过降息来“减轻影响”。她写道:“经济衰退时期应该持有股票而不是债券。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

世界上的许多大型投资银行都警告说,随着美联储(Federal Reserve)继续与通胀作斗争,在整个2023年股市都很容易受到经济衰退的影响。尽管利率不断上升,预测很悲观,但标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)今年给投资者带来了超过8%的回报,美国经济也表现出了惊人的弹性。亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)目前预计,美国第一季度GDP增速将达到2.5%,此前美国3月的失业率仍然接近3.5%的历史低点。因此,一些华尔街资深人士正在转向看涨。

投资公司Main Street Research的创始人及首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特在4月24日对《财富》杂志表示,他认为股市正处于“熊市的最后阶段,投资者应该买入估值合理的优秀公司的股票。”该公司管理着约20亿美元的资产。

他说:“熊市即将结束,2023年下半年将迎来令人兴奋的新牛市。”他特别指出了科技股的潜力。

在去年暴跌30%之后,科技股在2023年开始复苏,但德默特警告称,该行业仍然存在风险,而且有很多被高估的股票。他表示,一些投资者甚至可能对美联储通过降息来提振科技股的预期“过于乐观”。但这并不意味着没有值得买入的科技公司股票。德默特预计,即使在经济不确定的情况下,包括苹果(Apple)和微软(Microsoft)在内的许多大型科技公司以及网络安全股今年也将达到或超过其盈利预期。

他表示:“我们认为所有投资者都应该有一份股价合理的科技龙头股清单,并将一定现金配置到科技股中。”他补充道,现在是逢低买入的时候。

然而,德默特警告称,不应该大型科技公司“混为一谈”,他指出,亚马逊(Amazon)的市盈率接近80倍,仍然被高估。这位首席投资官表示,投资者应该专注于寻找那些股价/市盈率有吸引力,且拥有“护城河”,能够“在经济萎缩的情况下实现持续盈利”的公司。

伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的董事长沃伦·巴菲特在1995年的一次股东大会上创造了“经济护城河”这一著名的术语。它指的是一家公司通过规模经济、技术专长、高启动成本或其他一些因素保持竞争优势的能力。或者正如巴菲特在1999年《财富》杂志的一篇文章中所说的那样:

“投资的关键不在于评估一个行业将对社会产生多大的影响,或者其增长空间有多大,而在于确定任何特定公司的竞争优势,最重要的是,这种优势的持久性。那些拥有宽广的、可持续的护城河的产品或服务,才会给投资者带来回报。”

德默特也不是唯一一位看好拥有“护城河”的龙头的人。美国银行(Bank of America)的股票策略师萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安在4月24日的一份研究报告中列出了对股票近期前景持乐观态度的10大理由。她解释说,市场倾向于在夏季反弹;生产力出现强劲增长,“这对利润率来说是一个好兆头”;私募股权公司在熊市中积累了接近创纪录的2.2万亿美元的“基金备用金”,它们可以用这些“基金备用金”买入股票,这样一来应该会推高股价。

在对潜在经济衰退的担忧中,苏布拉马尼安告诉投资者不要担心,美联储有能力通过降息来“减轻影响”。她写道:“经济衰退时期应该持有股票而不是债券。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Many of the world’s largest investment banks have warned throughout 2023 that the stock market is vulnerable to a downturn as the Federal Reserve continues its battle with inflation. But despite the pessimistic forecasts and rising interest rates, the S&P 500 has returned more than 8% to investors this year and the economy has been remarkably resilient. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now expects U.S. GDP growth to hit 2.5% in the first quarter after the unemployment rate remained near a record low in March at 3.5%. As a result, some Wall Street veterans are turning bullish.

James Demmert, founder and chief investment officer of investment firm Main Street Research, which manages roughly $2 billion in assets, told Fortune on April 24 that he believes stocks are in “the last phase of the bear market and investors should be wading into great companies that sell at reasonable valuations.”

“The bear [market] is almost over, and a new exciting bull market awaits in the second half of 2023,” he said, pointing to potential in technology stocks in particular.

After a 30% plunge in last year, tech stocks mounted a recovery in 2023, but Demmert warned that there are still risks in the sector, and plenty of overvalued equities. Some investors might even be “overly optimistic” about the potential for the Fed to boost tech shares by cutting interest rates, he said. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t tech companies worth owning. Demmert expects many big tech companies, including Apple and Microsoft, along with cybersecurity stocks, to meet or surpass their earnings expectations this year even amid economic uncertainty.

“We think all investors should have a list of attractive technology stocks that are reasonably priced and allocate some cash to tech stocks,” he said, adding that now is the time to buy any market dips.

However, Demmert cautioned that big tech companies “should not be lumped together,” noting that Amazon trades at nearly 80 times its earnings and remains overvalued. The CIO said investors should focus on finding companies that trade at attractive price/earnings ratios and have “moats” that will enable them to deliver “consistent earnings into a contracting economy” instead.

Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett famously coined the term “economic moat” in a 1995 shareholder meeting. It refers to a company’s ability to maintain a competitive advantage over its peers through scale, technological expertise, high startup costs, or some other factor. Or as Buffett put it in a 1999 Fortune article:

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company, and above all, the durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors.”

Demmert isn’t alone in his bullish outlook for stocks that are surrounded by moats either. Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian laid out 10 reasons to be optimistic about the near-term prospects of stocks in a April 24 research note. She explained that the market tends to rally during the summer; the economy has seen strong productivity gains, “which bodes well for margins”; and private equity firms have built up a near record $2.2 trillion in “dry powder” amid the bear market that they could use to buy stocks, which should boost share prices.

And amid concerns over a potential recession, Subramanian told investors not to worry, the Fed has the ability to “soften the impact” through rate cuts. “Recession, shmecession,” she wrote. “Own stocks over bonds.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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